Archive through May 28, 2008

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paddy

Member

Post Number: 90
Registered: 03-2008

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 04:05 am:

From ody Post 2494 : summed it up correctly :

"Once that "brilliant" Bear Stearns intervention occurred, the US markets decided not to look back and behaved as though happy times were here again.

I think the Feds were so scared that they announced on the Sunday so the Market wouldn't tank on the Monday. Or perhaps they didn't want all the Irish voters riled up by messing with St Paddy's day .

Took the Monday for the market to absorb that a 'miracle" had come to pass and the next day the "Bear Sterns Bear Rally" [ BS bear rally] was on its merry way .

Regards,

Paddy

coyotte

Member

Post Number: 592
Registered: 12-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 08:41 am:

Ref: XJO

Buy at Support -- Sell at Resistance
if you follow this philosophy , there is another Buy opportunity now !

1: The price is now on Support

2: There has been 4 weak rallies -- they are weak because the Lows keep taking out the previous rally's High, along with narrowing trend depths .

3: Next Resistance Level would appear to be around 6150

4: so going by the Support/Resistance/Trend Chart the XJO has a higher probability of UP than DN between now and mid/late June .

Trouble is you have to put your "personal opinions " to one side and just follow the Chart. --- naturally a break of the trend line with a move down to 5650/5600 would see the end of this counter move.

This too shall change. (16th verse Tao Te Ching )

sway

Member

Post Number: 327
Registered: 12-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 10:49 am:

Further to this post regarding Decoupling:

http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=427230&post=135572

Looks like the Aussie market is clawing back some of the ground it lost relative to the US. The question is will it continue?

xjo

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

coyotte

Member

Post Number: 593
Registered: 12-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 11:58 am:

with all the "cut & paste " that go's on in this thread , i was supprised that no one picked up the tit-bit on Bloomberg Friday nite

That turnover on the US exchanges is declining -- not due to a overall drop in trader participation , but that traders are using other Services than the Exchanges.

As pointed out this could lead to a problem for Volume Based T/A methods, as these off market trades do not come through on the official Volume figures .

NOW THAT TO ME IS IMPORTANT !

cheers

This too shall change. (16th verse Tao Te Ching )

ody

Member

Post Number: 2496
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 01:41 pm:

ALL ORDS VS S&P500

To my simple eyes it looks as though our market has, as Sway suggested, indeed been catching up with the S&P in the last three months, but at present both are going down, and the only difference is that the All Ords does not seem to be going down quite so fast. That is, going by this particular chart:

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5EAORD

I don't think this picture is anything to feel reassured about: to go down less than someone else does not make me feel any the more pleased about sinking! Except that perhaps the All Ords is showing itself more resilient, and that would not surprise.

All in all I was NOT, for the near/medium future, encouraged by Colin's data. Except as a would-be buyer hoping to buy some shares at lower prices some time in the future.

eblode

Member

Post Number: 781
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, May 26, 2008 - 11:36 am:

Say, does anyone know what happened to "Snifter". Is he still around? And where is "nightstalker"??

Eugenio

dug

Member

Post Number: 3185
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, May 26, 2008 - 12:59 pm:

Don't you remember,eblode,the Great Snifter Chuck Out?
Officially it was because of Advertising a Direct IC Competitor but it was also a plot by peeved Once Were Here's because snifter was sniffing out their weaknesses.
Bundy,eblode,email bundy and he may be able to update on current location/activity.
Are you game to email Bundy,eblode?he's crankier and more cantankerous than even me!!

nightstalker is still round.see him posting at the "Warm Pig" sometimes.Seems he may have ditched "til the Bend at the End" for Holding Philosophy.Didn't nightS do some operation on Hilarius?maybe you,eugenio can get to him there?

it's distressing when some move on,hey?
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

eblode

Member

Post Number: 782
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, May 26, 2008 - 01:20 pm:

Many thanks Dug,
Shame they are not around. Wonderful insight, especially Snifter.
Who knows, one day I'll be looking around for you only to find out you've retired in a 3 million dollar penthouse in Dubai taking 3 Aussie chicks for playtime in between market plays.lol. Say maybe that's where Snifter ad Nightstalker are.
I'll look them up in the Dubai phonebook.

Eugenio

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1426
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 27, 2008 - 08:18 am:

MARKETS TO CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE MEDIUM TERM

As Ody and I have posted on a number of occasions we do expect that the market will continue to have a bearish feel to it over the next few months at least due to a number of factors. The following video goes through a number of these factors and also suggests some of the sectors that may be positively affected by the global events.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=753448388&play=1

The upcoming period will be a great opportunity for those of us who are adopting a longer term strategy for this bear market to buy great stocks at very good prices over the coming months.

eblode

Member

Post Number: 783
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 27, 2008 - 10:41 am:

Cat Lady,

Remember a few weeks ago when I was whinging about SMX and then it made a Lazarus comeback. Well the same is happening with IMD. Another SD "Star" and it's dropping like melted butter. Good earnings, great product, good dividends, and still going down. If you bought SMX then this might be deja vu.

Eugenio

ody

Member

Post Number: 2497
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 27, 2008 - 11:17 am:

Eugenio: SMX and IMD

An interesting post, Eugenio, not least because it involves both stocks. I think you'd have to grant that overall IMD has been the better one to have. However, BOTH have been behaving erratically of late, and my guess is that these comparatively small stocks, both of which have been "high fliers" at times, and with good earnings, tend to go up and down extravagantly in what is a very uncertain market. People return to them because of their high earnings and good share market performance in the past, but at the same time are afraid of holding on to them, because in recent times their performance has been so erratic. I'd rather hold IMD than SMX, though.

As Rudy has pointed out before, Stock Doctor star stocks should NOT be bought simply because they are SD star stocks. Their actual performance on the market should be considered to be AT LEAST as important as the insight into their fundamentals which SD provides. The market does not act just on fundamentals: it likes or dislikes certain stocks also for other reasons, whether bad (usually) or good (rarely - as good fundamentals will in the end inevitably increase the value of a stock and the market will discover that, just as bad fundamentals will ultimately sink a stock).

Remember that a VERY large number of people are active in the market who - often even with pride - declare that they in effect know nothing about the stocks that they buy, other than what they see on the charts. Hence qualitatively good stocks can just as readily be sold down as up. One ignores this rule at one's peril. People like you and I are instinctively inclined to identify intrinsic business quality, and find ourselves surprised if the market treats that factor irrationally.

There is no cure for this but to accept that harsh reality, and adjust your trading accordingly, unless you take the view that in the very long term quality will always be recognised. However, it is difficult for stocks to maintain superb quality for several years: very often they will only have it for a limited timespan. That means, therefore, that BOTH the T/A and F/A factors need to be watched, and that if one is to make sure of making much money and losing little, one often needs to act at a far earlier date than one would have hoped.

dug

Member

Post Number: 3189
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 27, 2008 - 11:28 am:

IMD announced Company earnings DOWN.This not yet hit StockDoctor Figuring?Hit the Market today.
Also PPT announced 2/5/08 no longer Substantial Holder.
Did anyone else take up their stake? I don't know but these two News Points seem to explain "d'Erratic".
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

eblode

Member

Post Number: 784
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 27, 2008 - 11:50 am:

Once again the Inside Traders got out!

Fortunately this company is strong enough to survive a setback and once the bargain hunters jump in we'll be sweet again.

Like prizefighters, we Traders simply have a bloody nose and get on with the job. As Rivkin said "even greater than the joy of profit is the pain of loss" .

Eugenio

ody

Member

Post Number: 2498
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 27, 2008 - 12:40 pm:

Eugenio/Dug

Eugenio, - My standard suggestion is (almost) always to sell a stock that (itself, too) announces diminishing earnings. The market is unforgiving towards such companies, and particularly in hard days like these. If I owned the company, especially right now (with markets declining rather than rising), I'd be OUT. Yes, in retrospect those who sold may have known (i.e. inside traders) - but just as often people sell while they don't have such evidence, and it would all be a simple matter if we did, or if that were the only reason why stocks go down.

Often a stock like IMD is worth buying back quite a bit later: the market often oversells a company on the bad news, and it may go down quite a bit and for quite a while, until people become aware that the company is, after all, still making good money, if less than before. However ... often the first profit downgrade is part of a pattern, and therefore buying back in may become a trap.

My earlier point was to the effect that in any case, whether or not there is bad news behind a plunging stock price, it is worth paying attention to, and not to go just by stock doctor data. In many cases one just never really finds out why a stock is out of favour - there are many examples of companies that just don't appeal to the market (often these are among the ones that, because underpriced, get taken over).

Dug: you must be joking to suggest that stock doctor would already have this info available, leave alone fed into the figures. Of course it can't do the calculations until it has the data. Noone is claiming superhuman abilities for them. Eugenio was perfectly sensible in taking the figures seriously FOR WHAT THEY WERE WHEN HE MADE HIS PURCHASE. And it will not take SD long to take note of the new info either - they are very brisk, and if there is a star stock involved they often g