Archive through May 30, 2008

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azworkinit

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Post Number: 39
Registered: 02-2008

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 28, 2008 - 03:06 pm:

I thought the options option was a good option.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

cat_lady

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Post Number: 457
Registered: 10-2006

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 28, 2008 - 04:11 pm:

Eugenio
IMD
better days indeed - nice 10%.
cat lady

Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

eblode

Member

Post Number: 787
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 28, 2008 - 05:53 pm:

Cat Lady,

That's what separates the men from the boys.

Eugenio

ody

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Post Number: 2502
Registered: 10-2006

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 28, 2008 - 07:41 pm:

Eugenio: IMD

The "wash" sale is something I would have avoided, but, just as we were discussing yesterday, the price did move away from that 23%. Good for you. I would be careful, however, in your position, about it necessarily moving up much further, or staying at a higher level if it did, for a loss of say 10-15% after a downgrade would be perfectly normal. And the market is in a downbeat mood.

coyotte

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Post Number: 594
Registered: 12-2002

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 28, 2008 - 08:21 pm:

ody wrote on Wednesday, May 28, 2008 - 07:41 pm:
And the market is in a downbeat mood.

almost there Wave 4 ending at around the 5644 - 5555 area , then a Buy into Wave 5

A Short Term Buying opportunity -- then Sell into Wave 1 Corrective , Stand aside Wave 2 Impulse (UP) , then Short to Hell Wave 3 Corrective

Cheers

This too shall change. (16th verse Tao Te Ching )

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1427
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Thursday, May 29, 2008 - 08:55 am:

MARKET UPDATE

Last night the S&P500 ended up 0.4% at 1390.8. Whilst that move sounds pretty ordinary it did create a bullish candle and taken in conjunction with the previous day's candle it can be seen that the index has bounced off an important support level (1373 shown in orange). Whilst I am not into Elliot Wave theory one could argue that we have just seen the end of a wave 4 on the S&P500 chart and have started a wave 5 move as indicated in Coyotte's previous post (relating to the XJO). Whether this does eventuate remains to be seen.

Whilst the ASX200 yesterday ignored the lead from the US market I suspect that it won't ignore a second up day especially as it too has almost reached a strong support level at 5625.

There is no doubt a large amount of negativity in the Australian economy at present with fuel prices and high interest rates eroding the confidence of the average man in the street however we have had much evidence in the past that the market is a different animal to the real economy so I would not be surprised to see the ASX200 follow the US lead today.

It is a bit of a line ball call however as last night on the ADRs BHP and RIO were up but WBC was down on the strength of poor performance in the banking sector in the US. It should be an interesting day.

The Materials Index is also coming to a critical support level which would most likely cause a bounce in the materials sector. If this did not happen today then it would happen soon.

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1428
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Thursday, May 29, 2008 - 09:02 am:

Further to my previous Market Update post.

Looking at the chart for BHP it certainly looks like a set up for a bounce off support today.

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 1414
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, May 29, 2008 - 10:13 am:

Hi Ody

It's shaping as a really interesting end to the month on US markets.

The daily DJIA chart shows very little recent support below 12500, so, unless the DJIA can hold at these levels for the next few sessions, in my opinion, a swift move to the 12,300 support is a real possibility by Friday (i.e. the last trading day in May.)

"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane." Ellis Boyd "Red" Redding, played by Morgan Freeman, in 'The Shawshank Redemption'.

paddy

Member

Post Number: 100
Registered: 03-2008

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Votes: 0


Thursday, May 29, 2008 - 11:55 am:

What are the chances that a "trap" is in the works ? Don't believe that it is a three day downtrend . Tomorrow there may be another 'spin" rally with an upside of 12664 or 12723 . Then downward continuation should continue with a vengeance . Downside way-points 12586 - 12461 - 12394 - 12354 - 12295 - 12259.

Regards,

Paddy

eblode

Member

Post Number: 788
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, May 29, 2008 - 12:14 pm:

Paddy,

Why don't you share what you're drinking with the rest of us?

Eugenio

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1429
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Thursday, May 29, 2008 - 12:49 pm:

Hi Paddy,

The global fundamentals would support a strong down move in the US and Aussie markets in the period ahead so your warning of a 'trap' is worthy of consideration. It's not a matter of 'if' but 'when'.

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 1415
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, May 29, 2008 - 12:52 pm:

Paddy I like your analysis and reasoning.

My only additional observation (using intraday charts to analyse how the DJIA made its move during the past week) is to say that, it seems to me that the move to 12660 will encounter a lot of selling pressure.

However, if 12660 is broken the move to 12720 should be swift.

paddy

Member

Post Number: 102
Registered: 03-2008

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Votes: 0


Friday, May 30, 2008 - 12:55 am:

eblode : go to " Way of the Dow" for my reply.

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

Member

Post Number: 103
Registered: 03-2008

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Votes: 0


Friday, May 30, 2008 - 01:15 am:

deanrosario: Yes 12664 is going to be strong Resistance . That is because, IMO, it is a Major Fibonacci Level whereas 12723 is a minor way-point but critical in a halt to a "spin" rally.

rdumas: If I could tell you when the "lever to the trapdoor" is going to be pulled I could walk on water . Good thing I'm in a desert climate.

regards,

Paddy

paddy

Member

Post Number: 104
Registered: 03-2008

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Votes: 0


Friday, May 30, 2008 - 05:14 am: