Archive through June 09, 2008

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deanrosario

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Post Number: 1422
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 04, 2008 - 11:41 am:

GDP figures for the MARCH 2008 Quarter
Figures released at 1130 a.m. AEST
Ref: abs.gov.au

- In seasonally adjusted terms, GDP increased by 0.6%
- Non-farm GDP increased by 0.7%.
- The Terms of trade rose 1.1%
- Real gross domestic income rose 0.8%.

EXPENDITURE ON GDP (seasonally adjusted terms)

The main contributors to the increase in expenditure on GDP were:
* Household final consumption expenditure (0.4 percentage points)
* New engineering construction (0.3 percentage points)
* National-defence capital expenditure (0.3 percentage points)

The largest negative contribution:
* Imports of goods and services (-0.8 percentage points)

Contribution to GDP Growth by industry

* Property and business services: 0.3 percentage points
* Manufacturing and Construction: 0.2 percentage points
* Mining, Transport and Storage, Finance and Insurance and Health and Communication services contributed 0.1 percentage points

* Agriculture, forestry and fishing detracted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth.

End of ABS data

My analysis ... I have absolutely no idea!

(Message edited by deanrosario on June 04, 2008)

"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane." Ellis Boyd "Red" Redding, played by Morgan Freeman, in 'The Shawshank Redemption'.

kate

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Post Number: 895
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 04, 2008 - 01:26 pm:

I think it may mean another interest rate on the way, Dean.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aHZC.JbSl2xM

Kate

rdumas

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Post Number: 1435
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Thursday, June 05, 2008 - 08:20 am:

Being in the right stocks during troubled times.

In setting up a portfolio for the long term it does pay to be in the right stocks during times of turbulence. By 'right' stocks I mean financially sound stocks. There is no doubt that the current times will cause a disconnect between price and value however in the long term the price usually ends up taking notice of the value of a company.

As a personal preference I like to have a large percentage of my core stocks in the top 100. Why, because they are obviously successful companies or they would not have made it into the top 100. Currently I have 6 out of my 9 stocks in the top 30 and 7 in the top 100 so I am meeting my requirements.

At this time in the top 50 stocks, there are 15 that are in a Weinstein stage 2 phase (ie going up) and 28 in a Weinstein stage 4 phase (ie, going down). Stock Doctor measures (amongst other things) the financial health of a company. Currently in the All Ordinaries:

24.0% are financially 'Strong'
4.8% are financially 'Satisfactory'
9.5% are financially 'Early Warning'
49.5% are financially 'Marginal'
12.2% are financially 'Distressed'

Needless to say it does pay to have your stocks are in the classification of financially 'Strong'. It doesn't guarantee success but it must increase one's probability of a long term successful outcome and investing in the market is a game of increasing our probability of success.

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 1424
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, June 05, 2008 - 11:36 am:

Balance of Trade Figures are about to be released and, in my opinion, the XJO is sitting close to an important support level of 5516.

As can be observed from the daily and intraday charts there's virtually no recent price support between 5516 and 5470ish!

Let the games begin!

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 1425
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 05, 2008 - 11:46 am:

BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES: April 2008

REF: abs.gov.au

- In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $957m in April 2008, a decrease of $1,591m (62%) on the revised deficit in March 2008.

- The decrease was due to:
* the rise in goods and services credits, mainly non-rural and other goods, and

* the fall in goods and services debits, mainly capital goods and consumption goods.

CREDITS (EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES) (Seasonally adjusted)

* Non-rural and other goods up $955m (7%) and
* rural goods up $143m (6%).

* Services credits up $16m.
* rise in non-rural and other goods was driven by coal, coke and briquettes, which rose $418m (23%) and non-monetary gold, which rose $285m (29%).

DEBITS (IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES) (Seasonally adjusted)

* Capital goods down $435m (10%) and
* consumption goods down $323m (6%)
* Services debits rose $26m (1%).

The fall in capital goods was driven by civil aircraft, which fell $329m (77%), and machinery and industrial equipment, which fell $154m (10%).

end of abs data

My simple analysis - we imported less from the rest of the world and sold more, which should be a tick that the RBA's current monetary policy is helping to cool the economy and will slow down inflation.

(Message edited by deanrosario on June 05, 2008)

rdumas

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Post Number: 1436
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 06, 2008 - 08:46 am:

MARKET UPDATE

last night the S&P500 completely wrong footed the ASX200 by closing up 1.95% at 1404.05. In doing so it broke through the short term descending trend line that has been in play since the 19th May 2008.

Hence it actually bounced of the blue support line at 1373 leaving the ASX200 which had already broken through its equivalent support line three days ago absolutely bewildered.

The alternative view of course is that it's the ASX200 which actually knows the true status of the real US economy (as well as ours) and is signaling the fact that there is no way that we are going to avoid a retest of the March lows in the months ahead. We have had ample evidence in the past of the US markets defying gravity only to eventually have to face reality.

It would be very difficult however for our market to ignore a lead of that magnitude coming from the US. On that basis I would expect a move in our market today to attempt to breach the blue support line (now resistance) at 5625.

(Message edited by rdumas on June 06, 2008)

ohkoolnutz

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Post Number: 754
Registered: 10-2005

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 06, 2008 - 09:13 am:

kate said: "Re oil, the US pays the equivalent of AUS $1.20/litre, Europe double that and we pay approx 1.50-1.60/litre.
Fuel bills in Australia now account for 3% of weekly household bills. "

My petrol spend out of all bills is 3% and out of personal income is 1.5%.

I just came across this:

http://www.investsmart.com.au/promo/default.asp?PageID=40

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

kate

Member

Post Number: 896
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 06, 2008 - 09:48 am:

OHK
Fuel subsidies have being cut in India, Indonesia, Malaysia and I think to a small degree in China. I presume this will lead to other Asian countries following suit. Governments are racking up huge losses by continuing to fund large subsidies on both agricultural commodities and oil. How long they can continue to do so is anyones guess however I would hazard a guess and say not for long. Inflation is increasing rapidly so the money printing machines must be going at full speed. That just devalues the currency and compounds the problem.

The only way the oil price will go down substantially is if the entire world stops subsidising the price and we let global growth slow. Allowing things to continue the way they are will raise the possibility of "70s style" supply shocks.

Regards
Kate

ody

Member

Post Number: 2510
Registered: 10-2006

Rating:
Votes: 1


Friday, June 06, 2008 - 11:39 am:

KATE: GREAT POST

You are quite right: it is our use of oil which affects the price, and only a change in that will ultimately address this problem. I view the exchanges between our politicians with utter contempt. Not ONE of them, as far as I am aware, is encouraging people to use less oil. Australians still far too often drive cars that consume oil way beyond their needs. I have talked friends into using 4-cylinder cars instead of monstrous guzzlers, and they don't in the event regret it. And even then we are still talking about relative luxury. I am not the best example, but proud to report that I drive a well-maintained 10-year old Toyota Corolla which is quite economical though not the BEST for efficiency. But compared with many other people I feel comparatively virtuous. I get enraged when people tell me that I am rich enough to drive a car that consumes far more petrol. Or that I should not use two sides of a sheet to print on. Or that we should not keep our unfinished food, to eat it one or two days later. The whole pattern of consumption is quite sick, I believe, and that is the main thing to focus on.

It so HAPPENS I am a vegetarian (conditioned by my parents). Shan't boast about it, but I do feel good when I hear that in the US and other countries 7 kg of wheat is used to produce 1 kg of meat. Absolutely outrageous, in my view. I add that some of my best friends are carnivores, as is my wife, just to show how tolerant I am. But, even so ...

eblode

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Post Number: 789
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 06, 2008 - 01:30 pm:

Ody,

My illusions are shattered!
For sure I pictured you in a Mercedes or a Lexus. A 10 year old Corolla?

Ody if you don't spend it now your kids will for sure.

Eugenio

mrlunch

Member

Post Number: 319
Registered: 09-2006

Rating:
Votes: 1


Friday, June 06, 2008 - 02:50 pm:

Bringing the disease of rampant consumerism down a notch would quickly solve high petrol prices. It is the sort of everyone knows, but wants everyone else to do. I put my money where my mouth is, but there is always room for improvement.

Where possible I ride an electric bicycle! I love that thing, wind in my hair, bit of excercise, it's got it all. I actually bought a car about a month ago - for three years before that I didn't own one.

Easy for me - there's always been another car here I could take if I needed it and I work at home. Not so easy for others, especially Perth where I live. Public transport can not get you everywhere conveniently here.

Ultimately though, if consumers demand super efficient cars they will get them. If I am to buy an expensive car some time in the future, I am going electric. I believe the Tesla company makes some pretty sweet ones...

Electric car, massive investment in renewable energy infrastructure... who knows if that were to occur maybe our kids will be able to eat fish without getting mercury poisoning.

*Tree hugging hippy rant over*

ody

Member

Post Number: 2511
Registered: 10-2006

Rating:
Votes: 1


Friday, June 06, 2008 - 03:55 pm:

mrlnch, Eugenio

mrlunch, we speak the same kind of language. The planet just cannot sustain the shameless plunder that we have inflicted upon it, and with many more millions of people now buying cars etc than there were even five years ago, we simply MUST look for alternatives. So, Eugenio, my wife and I cannot stop our kids from spending our money foolishly after we're gone, but fortunately for them, too, cars are just vehicles, and they are unlikely to buy some sort of guzzler. It MAY be expensive, for sure, but they would insist on its being a low energy consumer. If my wife and I thought they were idiots, we'd rather pass on the money to others, but as it happens they will make sensible use of what is left. I agree with you, however, that one does not have to deny oneself all comforts for their sake, and we don't. Thank God they are very self-sufficient, and would manage quite well on their own even if 'we blew the lot'.

A Lexus or a Mercedes??? We just wouldn't look right in such a car, and wouldn't feel at home either. And unless it's a vintage car, the wretched thing loses value as soon as you buy it. I prefer, by nature, either to buy things that at the least "hold" value reasonably well, or otherwise don't cost much. Hence I'd buy a Grange only for investment, never for drinking. Australia at present can offer one so many wines for no more than $10 a bottle which are super-duper that that is usually the most we ever spend. And often we are happy to stay with the real cheapies. Indeed, one advantage of Adelaide is that you can still find wines to buy in some quantity for your own bottling, which reduces the price to about a third. We use crown seals for the bottles, and have never had troubles.

But ... wine is about the only food/drink not going up in price, which is why we have a very well-stocked cellar right now (these low prices won't last for ever). Our supply is not for investment, I must confess. Or to save the planet. Or to leave money (or not) for the children.

eblode

Member

Post Number: 790
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 06, 2008 - 08:40 pm:

For some reason which I find impossible to fathom,evertime I buy a Stockdoctor "Star" stock it has to churn my guts before I see a profit. First I went with such drama with SMX before breaking out with a profit. Then IMD hits me with a double whammy drop from 1.75 to 1.50 in a blink which took the air out of my sails before I had the balls to buy more and risk the whole damn lot when it finally broke out again at 1.85 and I bailed out with a profit. Now what the hell is going on with MGX. Another "Star" in the biggest iron ore mine play going on in mining history and it is hitting the skids below $3.00 tonight. I know it is going to recover. Once again I poured a wad of $$$ into it, but why must I go through this aggro with such top notch shares. Beats me. Why does a guy hit his head against the wall? Cause it feels so good when he stops. Must be the reason.

Eugenio

ody

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Post Number: 2512
Registered: 10-2006

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Votes: 0