Archive through June 25, 2008

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Our Daily Bread » Archive through June 25, 2008

«« « Previous Next » »»

Author

Message

ody

Member

Post Number: 2548
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 02:56 am:

SLIDING DOWN FURTHER OVERSEAS - BUT NOT ACROSS THE BOARD

Interestingly more markets, in Europe and the US, started well than were able to keep up their initial impetus. At the time of writing there had been considerable deterioration in most. In the US, credit woes were once again to the fore. Germany, which had started in the black, is now turning negative, and in general more markets in Europe are down than up, though matters are a bit better than they were in Asia.

The FTSE is doing comparatively well, on the basis of its resources stocks, including base metals as well as energy.

It's a mixed bag, but on the whole quite unimpressive, and the perceptible slide suggests that by the time that most people get to read this, i.e. in the morning, most markets will have performed poorly. If so, then the Australian buying spree - almost certainly unrepresentative of the global pattern - may turn out to be short-lived. I don't trust it as a strong ongoing phenomenon anyway, even though I concede that there are reasons why it should perform better than other markets. Resources should continue to help, though not necessarily in a straight line. Banks may recover yet further, but I'd not build my future on them, in the present climate - and I stress again that the financials AS A SECTOR are not performing well. We did see some bargain buying, for sure, but the counter-pressures will probably be fairly strong, and if anything grow, so this Monday may well prove very unrepresentative, for the market as a whole, of what is ahead.

ody

Member

Post Number: 2549
Registered: 10-2006

Rating:
Votes: 1


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 03:29 am:

HERE IS THE EUROPEAN PICTURE

People like "the Captain", especially, may want to take note and have a look:

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL2349435420080623?rpc=44

The European markets are closed, and this sums up what happened:
---------------------------------------------------------
European stocks ended flat on Monday, pausing after last week's sharp losses as rising oil prices lent support to energy shares but banking stocks were hit by worries over the health of the sector.
---------------------------------------------------------

Exactly as I said would occur, and Captain Chaza may just be prepared to take note that he was quite wrong in his prediction about what would happen to banks in Europe and give some thought to not treating others as though they are idiots. Also with respect to the matter of resources.

Now let us see whether the Captain is big enough to ADMIT that he should refrain from attacking others, and in a far from courteous manner, when he himself is the one to get matters wrong.

After all, Captain, to use your own words, "facts are facts". The results for Europe are in. It now remains to be seen what will happen in the U.S., where trading started not that long ago.

Perhaps the reader who thought it necessary to treat my post responding to Captain Chaza as though I wrote complete nonsense will also be willing to do some re-thinking. I would have more respect, for people who find it important to use the star system, to explain WHY they think my posts are worthless. It's just childish and devious to try and to discredit fellow posters in this way.

(Message edited by ody on June 24, 2008)

paddy

Member

Post Number: 194
Registered: 03-2008

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 03:58 am:

" We May be Facing a Fall Stock Market Disaster "

http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/6861

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1485
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 07:54 am:

Hi Ken,

I thought that was the case as well. I was trading the share market futures back in the late 90's and in 2000~2001 period and prior to 2001 time it was based on the All Ordinaries. I can't recall exactly what caused the move to the ASX200 but it was around that time that it suddenly became important.

It was for that reason that I wanted to point out the apparent discrepancy in the ASX200 figure Paddy quoted as his base date because the XAO figure at around that date was way out of kilter with his quoted figure.

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1486
Registered: 11-2006

Rating:
Votes: 1


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 08:04 am:

Ody,

Don't worry about the star ratings. You know as well as everyone else on this thread that whilst it was introduced by Colin as a mechanism for allowing posters to show their appreciation for good posts it very quickly became a tool for the school yard bullies and their slaves to insult posters who attempt to contribute to worth while threads.

I have requested Colin to remind Charles of his obligation to keep this thread CC free.

I'm sure that this will cause great psychological concern to his already psychologically disturbed followers but there are many other threads that they can bow and scrape and pay homage to him.

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1487
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 08:53 am:

THE HEALTH OF OUR MARKET

There is no doubt some very strong global negatives acting on our market which will provide challenges for our economy. In trying to see where we're headed it still pays to look at our two main playing sectors, namely the materials sector and the financial (excl, LPTs) sector.

Using the weekly chars for both sectors we note the following:

XMJ

This sector no doubt has been and will continue to be our saviour in terms of avoiding a complete collapse in the foreseeable future. Since the beginning of the previous bull market in March 2003, this sector has remained strong always closing above a strong ascending trend line.

Last week it came up against a very strong overhead resistance however things are so far keeping together in spite of some of the worst global economic conditions that have existed since the 1987 crash.

XXJ

The XXJ however has been severely battered over the same period. It has lost almost 54% of the value that it accrued over the 2003 ~ 2008 period. Last week it came to a strong support level indicated by the orange line. We can only hope that this support will hold. A glimmer of hope is given by the increasing TMF indicator during recent times showing a divergence between this indicator and the index.

Naturally enough for our market to start its move upwards again our financial sector needs to continue to build a strong base from which to bounce. It is still too early to predict that this will happen but at least the signs are there that it may be making a tentative start to the process. It is the severity of the global economic conditions and the continuing strength of our materials sector in spite of these problems that gives me confidence in our market in the medium to long term. The strength of our commodities is such that we are quickly getting to the point where we may finally become a trade surplus country.

ken

Member

Post Number: 513
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 09:34 am:

Paddy,

The data provider must have reconstructed the XJO before 2000 because it didn't exist back to 1982

Ken

dug

Member

Post Number: 3256
Registered: 07-2005

Rating:
Votes: 1


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 10:13 am:

rudy,
next time you're chatting to Colin,ask him to expose who actually dishes out these One Star "heroics".He's got some gizmo in the programme IC to know this.
I'm tired of the "usual suspects".I'm starting to think it's bleeding Chuckles himself which would be further proof of his overweened/weiner attitude of Legend in his own Mind.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1488
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 10:49 am:

Hi Dug,

I can think of two or three possibles but I don't think that it would be of any benefit to find out. Whilst I think that it was a good idea for Colin to provide that facility, the way that it gets manipulated for the wrong purposes makes it worthless now. If people wanted to voice their appreciation of a post they could do so publically or privately and achieve the same result.

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 1438
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 10:52 am:

My "two bob's worth" on the Financial Sector's move yesterday.

It's taken the XFJ just 45 minutes to wipe away all the "gains" made in 5 hours yesterday!

The intraday XFJ certainly doesn't excite me as being bullish at this stage and the XFJ just hit a 3.5 year low!

Trying to "catch a falling knife" can be rewarding, but with every reward in the market one has to accept the associated huge risk.

(Message edited by deanrosario on June 24, 2008)

"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane." Ellis Boyd "Red" Redding, played by Morgan Freeman, in 'The Shawshank Redemption'.

paddy

Member

Post Number: 196
Registered: 03-2008

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 11:29 am:

Ken, Rudy : Hope this is okay. Here is link to chart.

http://new.quote.com/global/stocks/chart.action?s=%24XJO-ASX&chartUi.period=M&ch artUi.bardensity=HIGH&chartUi.studies=BOLL%2820%2C2%29%3B&chartUi.bartype=CANDLE &chartUi.size=800x550&chartUi.minutes=

Regards,

Paddy

ody

Member

Post Number: 2550
Registered: 10-2006

Rating:
Votes: 1


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 11:52 am:

Many thanks for your support, Rudy and Dug. It does help to know that the rudeness and silliness of CC and the one-star donor are not appreciated by others either. In fairness, Dug, I doubt that CC is the (or at least the only) person behind that neurotic one-star habit: after all, there were TWO people who - unbelievably - thought CC's post was worth 5 stars, not only overlooking his inaccuracies, but - to my mind at least as importantly - his compulsive rudeness (bullying, as Rudy calls it, really IS the right word). One of the dominant PURPOSES of CC's posts is (again and again) to insult others, and that is what I particularly object to. It is incomprehensible to me why he cannot makes his points without making them personal attacks, and why others would wish to support those - but though the personal comments are distracting, I tend no longer to comment on them as such, preferring to concentrate ONLY on points made about the share market, which is what we are here for. And that is why I stay polite when answering him, not engaging in some silly tit-for-tat exchange.

Dean: as you point out, the financial sector is once again acting "true to form", alas. As the materials are clearly up, I think that this shows rather clearly just what the trend is, and that does mean the more that I was not speaking nonsense when endorsing, in essence, RUDY's view that the Australian market should not be confused with that of the US: that ours is different because of resources. That, in fact, was my main point in drawing attention to the strength of that sector yesterday, DESPITE RIO and BHP. Obviously, the context within which I made that comment was entirely overlooked by CC.

dug

Member

Post Number: 3257
Registered: 07-2005

Rating:
Votes: 1


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 12:09 pm:

Ody,
I just want to remind you that the Voting System is Completely Irrelevant.
You should get no ideas/input from it because One Person can vote Multiple Times on the Same Post.
It's a mechanism for the Weak,minded and spirited.

regards.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1489
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 12:50 pm: