Archive through June 27, 2008

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eblode

Member

Post Number: 803
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 05:57 am:

Ody,
You must remember that CC comes from Brazil.....that's where the nuts come from.
Off to Queensland to forget about the market for 2 weeks.

Happy trading.

Eugenio

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1494
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 08:15 am:

Hi Morton,

Thanks for sharing that new insight into the oil situation. It will be interesting to see how this whole thing plays out. Sounds like some pretty high stakes games being played.

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1495
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 08:32 am:

MARKET WRAP

Last night the S&P500 closed down a mere 0.28% at 1314.3. Doesn't sound like much of a move but what is important was that that the intraday low as down at 1304 thus from a swing trading perspective it continues to make lower lows.

Unfortunately because of the lack of resolution on the 'Paint' program I couldn't draw last night's action accurately on yesterdays chart however it should suffice to give you some idea of what happened.

Looking at the action of the ADRs last night on the NY stock exchange we may be giving back some of the gains that we made on the resources stocks yesterday in today's action which should see our market heading south again. At the rate we're going we may see 5186 (blue support formed by the January 2008 low) by weeks end.

Whilst I do expect some move down in the materials index today it can be seen that it remains in a strong short term bull channel (yellow channel) within a medium term bull channel (blue channel) which should at least slow down the rate of our market's decent. The index continues to trade above its Weinstein stage 2 phase 30 week EMA.

paddy

Member

Post Number: 199
Registered: 03-2008

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 09:13 am:

Four years of gains in home prices wiped out
Case-Shiller: Prices fall in all 20 cities in past year; slimmer OFHEO decline

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/four-years-home-price-gains-wiped/story.as px?guid=%7BEB1B0595-37FA-4542-88A2-CE470ACAF101%7D&dist=msr_13

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 1441
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 09:55 am:

The truth about

(a) the composition of the XJO
(b) how the XJO is calculated

can be found at

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/au/page.topic/indices_asx200/ 2,3,2,8,0,0,0,0,0,2,2,0,0,0,0,0.html

After reading these documents, each person can decide if it is CC who does not, or Rudy and I who do not, understand the workings of the XJO!

Actually, CC hasn't told us what he knows! His post chooses to deride but doesn't actually add to our knowledge capital.

Some basic facts:

1. The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) was introduced in April 2000 and replaced the All Ordinaries index (XAO) as the primary gauge for the Australian equity market.

2. The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX
by float-adjusted market capitalization

3. The XJO is widely considered Australia’s preeminent benchmark index and covers approximately 80% of Australian equity market capitalization

4. The S&P/ASX index series is calculated using a base-weighted aggregate methodology.

5. This means the level of an index reflects the total market value of all the component stocks relative to a particular base period.

6. The total market value of a company is determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares available after float (IWF) adjustment.

Index Calculations

7. On any given day, the index value is the quotient of the total available market capitalization of the index’s constituents and its divisor.

8. The divisor’s time series is, in effect, a chronological summary of all changes affecting the base capital of the index.

Criteria used for adding stocks to the Index

* Listing: Stock must be listed on the ASX

* Market Capitalization: Prior 6-month day-end float- adjusted market capitalization must be in the top 200

* Public Float: At least 30% of the stock must be available for public trading

* Liquidity: Stock must be actively and regularly traded on the ASX

(NB: S&P strives to minimise turnover in index membership so a stock is not automatically removed merely because it fails any of the above criteria.)

"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane." Ellis Boyd "Red" Redding, played by Morgan Freeman, in 'The Shawshank Redemption'.

resillent1

Member

Post Number: 495
Registered: 10-2006

Rating:
Votes: 2


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 10:12 am:

Looks Like I’m in the shit again.

I gave CC five stars for his post 3219 as encouragement for him posting here – I value the balance he brings to the thread and his right to have a view and express it.

His line about “ignoring” his post if you don’t agree with it – struck a chord with me.

Ody I gave your post 2546 one star because the last paragraph is not a reflection of the reality (as proved again subsequently) of this thread. I certainly do not feel free and welcome to post opposing opinion on this thread.

I have now added more one star votes to all those posts since CC post which have either denigrated him or me for expressing an opinion via the voting system. It should be noted that most of what was said about the votes was implied and not what was meant by the vote.

The reaction to a vote that is not aligned with Rudy’s and Ody’s opinion, shows just how intolerant this thread really is.

If there were a vote for the most pathetic post ever I would have awarded it to Ody’s post 2551. CC is accused of being a school yard bully – but Ody and Rudy you are just being debating team thugs, exercising your self perceived air of intellectual arrogance. Talk about the kettle calling the pot black. Your reactions are way out of proportion to the initial provocation.

For me the negatives of this site, caused when people attend to their Ego’s, far outweigh the potential benefits of shared learning that sometimes occurs. It is the best forum platform around but due to the rampaging Ego’s that never get moderated its continued decline is almost inevitable.

Resillent1 (as from now - former member)

When the dawn of Intelligence shall spread over the eastern horizon of human progress, and Ignorance and Superstition shall have left their last footprints on the sand of time, it will be recorded in the last chapter of the book of man’s crime that his most grievous sin was that of intolerance – Napoleon Hill.

ody

Member

Post Number: 2553
Registered: 10-2006

Rating:
Votes: 1


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 01:16 pm:

Dear Resillent,

There is a very big difference between your own posts and CC's. As Dean puts it very nicely in a recent post: "Actually, CC hasn't told us what he knows! His post chooses to deride but doesn't actually add to our knowledge capital."

It is CC's desire - evident in every post he writes here - to attack people personally, and without any provocation, which many people (certainly not just Rudy and me) object to.

You really choose to harm your own argument and your own excellent standing on this thread by failing to see the important distinction between yourself and the person you are defending. Noone here would deny that you DO contribute valuable material to this thread, and I think it has only been very rarely the case that anyone has been personally upset by something you wrote. If that ever happened, it was not because you make it a principle, as CC does, to offend people, but by way of "by-product".

Several people here, myself frequently included, have on a number of occasions expressed our admiration for your posts, even if we pronouncedly disagreed. In other words, contrary to your own fears, this IS a thread where a variety of views gets put forward, by quite different people, without any lack of tolerance on Rudy's or my part: I mention Rudy and me explicitly simply because you yourself do so, and for no other reason.

It just is not true that we do not tolerate other people's views or fail to encourage them, even though you personally seem to feel that. It's the stranger that you should do so, yourself, in that both Rudy and I have explicitly praised your contributions. You seem to believe that if we acknowledge the value of other people's opinions we are insincere, but that is really just a matter of feeling and assertion on your part. I think you would find it difficult to point to any actual evidence supporting the truth of what you say on this score.

However, CC is an entirely different kettle of fish, as I think is very obvious to most readers of this thread. That is why Colin banned him from it. And I can assure you that Colin entirely makes up his own mind, and is extremely tolerant in accepting a wide range of opinion from contributors.

As for your one-star ratings, I knew from past experience that you had dished them out, so am not surprised to see you doing so again. The recent addition of them to posts previously left out adds absolutely nothing of value: what counts is what you say, not the stars. It is the reason WHY people give stars which matters. You have now at least explained that rationale, which is a whole lot better than just assigning a "grade" to a post.

As I know your thinking - and feeling - on the various issues very well, I now find those stars quite unimportant. To me, you are a poster who has genuinely valuable things to say but somehow has quite wrongly got it into his head that people like Rudy and I are "intolerant".

The intellectually valuable material which you produce proceeds from the intellectual side of your nature, while the feelings you have about Rudy and me are, I fear, pure emotion, and ultimately not backed by either facts or reason. In other words, your one-star grading of my posts leaves me entirely cold, as your need to vent your spleen on us is ultimately really your own problem, not mine.

Similarly with your admiration for CC. Intellectually, the two of you have virtually nothing in common: emotionally you clearly feel drawn to him, and that IS a problem - but for you personally, not other people.

It looks as though this time you really HAVE decided to leave us, but I shan't say "Farewell" just yet, as we have gone through similar supposedly permanent separations before! In other words, I would imagine that we'll see more of you again, and that would be a good thing, in principle. But if not, then so be it. I thank you at the same time, in any case, for the times when I really HAVE learned from your posts, which has certainly happened on a number of occasions. Sometimes quite crucially so, and not least when you corrected me or taught me to see things in a different way.

paddy

Member

Post Number: 200
Registered: 03-2008

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 01:57 pm:

IMO, if XJO does not get back above 5236 there will be a test of sub 5200.

Regards,

Paddy

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 1442
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 02:26 pm:

Paddy - I'm with you.

I see 5230ish as critical today - as the intraday chart (below) shows, the market found support at this level during the lunch period then went BANG and dropped through.

Now we'll see if this is an intraday "dead cat bounce" or the start of an intraday rally to 5250ish.

With only 3 more sessions this financial year, I reckon we're heading to the 5120ish (former monthly resistance); or, even the March-08 low of around 5040.

A move to 5040 would likely see us succumb and hit 5000 before we bounce.

colin_twiggs

Member

Post Number: 3188
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 03:36 pm:

We are investigating whether we can turn the star rating off. It is counter-productive and frequently abused.

Charles,
I appreciate that you felt obliged to respond to Dug, but my request to stay off this thread still applies.

Regards,
Colin

(Message edited by colin_twiggs on June 25, 2008)

paddy

Member

Post Number: 201
Registered: 03-2008

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 05:35 pm:

Dean : Had to check and see if 5236 held . Looks like "they" got a Close 1.8 points above the "trap door". By my numbers a close below 5236 would have set up a test of 5198 .

After that 5160 - 5136 - 5098 - 5051 - 5021 - 4974 . Haven't worked up levels for down in the dungeon .

Must catch a wink or two before NY opens.

Have a good one

Paddy

ody

Member

Post Number: 2554
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 05:35 pm:

A great story ...

I almost always write about shares, which is what we are here for, but can't resist posting one of the most touching tales I've recently read: about a bear and its relationship with its human family. Great stuff, and one hopes that the bureaucrats will come to see sense:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/world/too-much-for-a-family-to-bear/2008/06 /25/1214073289514.html

dug

Member

Post Number: 3264
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 06:39 pm:

Any of you doing "research" by walking thru your local Shopping Centre?
or do you rely solely on "learned links"?

Even the Bank,yes which bank?,approached d'wife today trying to glean Term Deposits.We're with BOQ.
In the Bank,not telemarketing.
Teller had this Tale about Plummeting Business Deposits,retrenchments etc etc.

Anyway,it's quite prosperous round here tho the Sugar price is down.

Eblode-I assume you've sold out of SUL?Saw it hit it's Year Low yesterday but,I was in the Game when SuperCheap opened it's First Store out at Alderley.I did their books.The bloke who started it,d'Founder was real decent.

I think there is a Property Trust spin off on the cards in SuperCheap.They mostly operate out of Stand Alone Stores and I think the Founder bloke owns most of them.He's getting on and don't think he has kids so May divest into the Company.
But that's just pure conjecture,don't rely on it,right?

Other than Cane Cockies,Bundaberg has a Thriving Car Culture.Hoons in other words.
As a 84Volvo Driver myself,the roads are a Nightmare! Seems every second clown at a roundabout just Assumes I'll stop,swerve,let 'em in.Yeah yer thought REAAAL Polite if ya drive a Volvo!
but no,eugenio I don't wear d'Hat!!

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

morton

Member

Post Number: 100
Registered: 05-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0