Sharing Thoughts About the Market

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rdumas

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 08:49 am:

Hi Folks,

I thought that I would start another thread to cater for those who want to share their thoughts about the market. Hopefully this thread is one that people can genuinely use to explore ideas without the threat of criticism from those with a narrow mind. I'm probably hoping for a miracle but you'll never know if you don't try.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

rdumas

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 09:10 am:

Hi Justice,

My research into cycle timing is only in it's very early stages as I have mentioned to others. There appears to be some connection between cycle timing using both 'trading' days and 'calendar' days. Some analysts appear to use one or the other whereas some use both.

For example, as I mentioned on the Daily Bread thread the 6th April was 136 days (135 days is often important but that was a Sunday so I used the next trading day) from the market low of the 21st November 2008 whereas the 8th April was 360 trading days from the all time market high on the 1st November 2007.

Whilst the methodology appears to give you fairly accurate turning points, it doesn't let you know how significant those turning points are going to be. No doubt I will find out the 'key' with further study. Certainly you will find that the majority of the really significant turn dates will fall on these type of precalculated dates.

As for software that helps count the days so that you don't have to go to the trouble of manually counting. Stock Doctor's charting software gives you tools to easily count trading days on a chart but doesn't give you that same ability to count calendar days.

I have downloaded a free software package called Gannalyst Professional 5.0 from the net which may enable me to use calendar days but haven't tried to use it yet. It has all of the Gann type tools that you would expect to see and it's absolutely free. You need to import data into it which is easy enough to do. I downloaded a csv file from the Yahoo finance website for the XJO and it imported easily.

Cheers

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

rdumas

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 09:11 am:

Hi Elisabeth,

Thank you for your warm welcome back to IC. It was most appreciated.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

rdumas

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 10:07 am:

S&P500 Powers Ahead

The S&P500 powered ahead again last night to finish up 3.81% at 856.56. This now breaks through the top of the descending trend channel and continues the powerful rally that started in early March.

I have to admit to having expected last week that there would be a significant pull back in the market of between 38.2% and 50.0% but the strength of this rally is shown by the smallish pull backs that have been occurring.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

rdumas

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 10:28 am:

S&P500 Earnings (Change from Recession Start)

The Chart of the Day site always comes out with some very interesting charts. Following is the comment that came with the chart below.

Alcoa officially kicked off earnings season Tuesday after the close. Alcoa reported a loss of $497 million in the first quarter. For some perspective into the current earnings environment, today's chart compares S&P 500 earnings performance during the current economic recession (solid red line) to that of the last recession (dashed gold line) and the average recession from 1936-2006 (dashed blue line). As today's chart illustrates, the current decline in earnings is several orders of magnitude greater than the average decline during a recession. The current decline is also more severe than what was the most severe earnings decline on record – the decline that began in 2001 (gold dashed line).

I wonder if the time scale is correct because it appears that the earnings bottomed at about this time in the previous recession and the average recession from 1936-2006.

It would have been interesting to see the chart of the great depression to see how we sat in comparison to that period.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

mum

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 01:25 pm:

Hi Rudy, this web site may interest you. It has a charts comparing a few different aspects of past bear markets. It is updated daily too
http://dshort.com/

rdumas

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 01:33 pm:

Hi Mum,

Yes it is an excellent web site. When I sent out my last market wrap I included the chart comparing the previous bear markets in my email.

Cheers

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

rdumas

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 04:16 pm:

XJO Enters Next Stage of Rally

For those who don't get my market wrap here is a bit of an extract (appropriately edited) which may be of interest.

The chart above shows that the rally on the XJO has entered a new phase. Note the previous channel (shown in blue) which shows the original rapid upward thrust of the rally. The 3707 level represented a strong resistance level on the 27th March causing the index to fall 26.6% of its previous rally range.

The market then rallied again moving up 201 points to 3752 but was followed by a retracement of 141 points (70%).

We can see from the chart that a new channel has formed (shown in red) that has a slower rate of ascent and with wilder swings. The next resistance levels appear to be at around the 3724 ~ 3740 level. The ASX200 futures is currently sitting at +63 points which would take the XJO up to around 3735 so that sits well with the overhead resistance levels.

Note that the 3735 is still below the recent high of 3752 and around 60 points below the 3795 overhead resistance shown in green on the above chart.

In terms of timing we can see that the most recent move up from around 3551 to 3752 was accomplished in 4 up thrusting waves (7 waves in total). So far since the recent market drop there has been around 2.5 waves completed so if we get a repeat of the previous action we will probably peak in another 2 or 3 days with most of the move occurring on our next trading day.

Not in my market wrap but probably worth noting is that with this second stage it is difficult at this time to say whether the market will continue to rally all that much further as the nature of the market action appears to be changing significantly. It will be interesting to see if we can reach the upper boundary of the red channel or whether we weaken into a more sideways moving channel in the coming days.

The reason I say this is because quite often large market swings occur as a market top (or bottom) is unfolding.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

captain_chaza

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 04:20 pm:

Ahoy Officer Dumas

Out of all "Gin" threads on IC
Why did you pick the "Long Term and Fundamental" thread to post your Short Term charts?

Did you not know that the "The Long Term" thread in total with all of its Excuses and Fundamental Non-Sensicle Analysis has been branded by Myself as "Extremely Dangerous Stuff"

Crikey! I don't know anybody who subscribes to this Long Term thread with all of its Sweet and Sour Fundamentals

Sometimes you just have to put blame on those who have influenced /cost you so much money in the Best of Times in generations and learn from it!

Salute and Gods' speed to you in your search for TA excellence in the Short Term

PS IMHO
Dogs and Cats will fight until the Dog learns that the Cat is the Smarter
But
As is the case of TA and FA
Birds and Fish will never be able to live together

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

rdumas

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 04:38 pm:

G'day CC,

I was wondering how long it would take for you to appear on the thread.

Whilst ever you focus on sharing your insights into the market and not being a stirrer you are more than welcome to post here. I feel confident that you could be a worthy contributor.

You raise a very good point about the placement of this thread. I thought about which general thread I should put this thread and decided that whilst my main interest is in TA both long and short term, I wanted to be as flexible as possible in terms of what could be discussed on this thread. There will be times when I may wish to broach the subject of fundamentals even though during these times I find them to be pretty irrelevant except in the very broadest underlying terms.

During these times we need to be able to read the 'winds of change' as you have at times shown an ability to do.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

rdumas

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 04:52 pm:

The Sector Weightings Have Been Changing

Just to bring in a bit of fundamental stuff. One of the biggest changes that has occurred is the shifting of the sector weightings in recent months. It wasn't all that long ago that the Materials sector had gained the upper hand over the Financial sector.

Following is a table of the current sector weightings compliments of Commsec which clearly shows that the Financials have well and truly gained the upper hand.

As noted however with capital raisings likely to play a role in future as the recession deepens we may see the share prices of the banks drop off through the dilution effects.

It's also interesting to note their comments about agricultural products.

Also note their comments about the Industrials sector. Following is a chart of this sector showing it having bottomed and starting a climb upwards.

With a bit of luck it may use the 10 week EMA as a base for a launch pad. Mind you I would feel a lot more confident if it broke up through the upper boundary of the long term descending channel. Probably worth watching.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

justice

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 05:11 pm:

Rudy:

Gannalyst Professional 5.0 - a Nice Find.

Trading/Calendar days Toggle select button left side of Overlay button. t-c toggle

rdumas

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 08:31 am:

Hi Justice,

Yes I tried it yesterday and the Gannalyst Professional 5.0 calendar days feature does work however I haven't progressed any further at all with it beyond that experiment.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

eblode

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 11:24 am:

Rudy,
Once again a clear, concise, and understandable "Market Wrap". One of the best.

Eugenio

rdumas

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 11:31 am:

Thanks Eugenio,

You are a true friend and I value that friendship.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

ody

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 12:06 pm:

Rudy: Of course I have been interested to see what sort of material would appear on this new thread, and I should like to thank you for the kind of charts that you so often and successfully offered on Our Daily Bread and are now posting here: I mean 2328, 2331, and 2333 (I hope I have the numbers right). I still cannot see, so far, why you would not post these on Our Daily Bread, but the important thing is that at any rate it is possible for anyone to find them here, and that is a positive good.

For myself, I intend to continue to post mainly on Our Daily Bread. I think that very well established thread should be kept going. And you need have no fear that I shall produce posts that are critical of you here. As I see it, you see yourself as "seeking shelter" here from what you take to be "narrow minded" (etc) criticism produced by me, and I shall respect your desire to avoid that.

I don't imply either that I shall produce such criticism on Our Daily Bread, where you don't at present post anyway, and where I am not going to discuss posts you produce here, except if I feel like drawing attention to them for the sake of ODB readers who can benefit from them.

This way we may perhaps keep two threads going which are both useful to their readers.

rdumas

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 12:18 pm:

Hi Dug,

I don't have any intention this time of doing a Holy Cow. I respect HC for his knowledge and intentions and was saddened by his departure. His leaving was a great loss to IC in my opinion. He was just one of the many excellent posters that we have lost from IC due to the malicious actions of some ego driven posters.

I find that what Ody did in publishing a private email in a public forum is one of the lowest acts that I have ever experienced and it has greatly damaged the respect that I once had for the guy. Whilst I understand why he believes that it was warranted, it goes against the sanctity of private messages. No circumstance would cause me to ever do what he did. I didn't know that it was against IC rules but I find that action morally reprehensible and any person with any moral conscience would never have resorted to it. I wouldn't ask Colin to have him banned from posting on IC as that is not my style.

As for you being one of the ego driven posters that I had a problem with, that comment is completely incorrect, at least in my eyes. I have always valued your thoughts both public and private and at no time was ever offended by you.

Regarding my postings on Elliott Wave. EW for any one that has ever undertaken the study is a complex subject and not one that can be understood at a superficial level. For that reason I had to focus entirely on the subject for a number of months to gain the understanding that wanted to achieve in the shortest possible time.

I think that I clearly explained in some of my earlier posts that I would be using the above methodology in learning EW was a conscious decision on my part. That is the way that I learn complex subjects. My earlier postings clearly stated that I was willing to take readers on my learning journey. My postings on IC were done with that intention in mind.

It was never going to be an endless endeavour and a true friend would have been more understanding than Ody has demonstrated himself to be. There were many people who did join me in the experience and I think that those who did gained something of value. Unfortunately Ody took the view that I had found some new found religion and that it was his duty to show me the errors of my ways by imparting his superior knowledge taking every opportunity to rubbish the subject that I was trying to understand.

I have now reached a stage of understanding EW to a level that I am happy with and can now embed that knowledge into my tool box of other TA methodologies. The large number of people that have been receiving my market wrap will have seen that I am now using the complete toolbox and de-emphasising the EW component and I know that it will make my market wrap more valuable.

My recent entry into studying market time cycles is once again something that will improve my overall knowledge of technical analysis. Once again, Ody has shown his intolerance towards someone sharing observations about an aspect of market behaviour. In Ody's world a person is not allowed to show a little enthusiasm for a new found methodology. His close minded intolerance would crush any person who is in the early stages of learning something new because his view is the only one that has any value.

For that reason I would rather start a thread where hopefully people can be more tolerant of someone sharing views on the market. There is not only one way of seeing things. Truth does not reside in only one person. Ody would do well to take from peoples views those things that he can use and those things that he can't he should not try to destroy with his criticisms.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

ody

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 12:57 pm:

Rudy: useful to blow off steam, no doubt

I think it is a good thing you got all that off your chest, Rudy. Much better to state just what your objections are.

But, just briefly: I would have thought that you will have seen for yourself over the years that I by no means feel that my view is the only one that has any value. On the contrary, I keep questioning my own views and any consistent reading of them would show that I frequently change my mind. In that process, I am definitely influenced by what others say, including yourself. When you produce "ordinary" charts, so to speak, I find those most useful as they enable me to see certain things more clearly than I do without such material.

You say: "Ody would do well to take from peoples views those things that he can use and those things that he can't he should not try to destroy with his criticisms." I do, indeed, regularly take from other people's views exactly those things that I think I can use. There are other things that I reject. I am sure that you do the same: one has to select. That does not mean however that if I disagree with someone or criticise a person's view on a particular matter, I "try to destroy" the things I feel I can't use. This is where I think you really misinterpret me greatly.

Incidentally, there is a real awkwardness about these two threads: I'd prefer to avoid this kind of discussion altogether, but it is perhaps useful to have it - and since you have expressed your view of me here I also answer you here. That is probably the best way. Let me assure you that my disagreements or criticisms of you have never been designed to be destructive: otherwise I would not continue to praise you for the things which I think you do very well.

dug

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 01:40 pm:

Rudy,
I'm like one from an Apache Tribe who keeps an "oral" History of Incredible Charts.As in my way,I emphasise Apache in all it's senses ie including the French coonotation[

]

recently down in Suggestion Box I was "attacked" for discouraging New Posters and all round being resposible as second fiddle to our Chuckles for the disintergation of IC.

d'Great Ingot waded in on behalf of HIS MOB of Refugees,that he'd been in PM contact with over the years fermenting this diatribe about mainly CC but because that clown had broken bread with some of Ingot's Co Conspirators,I got lumbered in as well.

Now,rudy you say you were a lurker of d'Old Days IC.
Can you confirm/deny that there was a Clique who because they were Long Time Members believed that THEY were d'Chosen Ones?

A mob of prats IMHO who skited about their abilities,intimated that they were Wealthy by Share Trading,hung out stories about their flash cars,exclusive tastes in liquor,being "chick magnets" but with a Healthy Dose of God Bothering thrown in on d'Side even to the extent of justifying their RIGHTEOUSNESS.

Rudy,do you remember when Anne did d'Squeeeeal,Dog on these Great Ones?She'd been at the Captain's Table when d'Great Ones gathered,in their cups and amongst her Revelations were-

A proposed Move that THEY be paid to post or at least get the premium IC excellent Charting Pack for FREE.

An Organised Move against a poster who was Sniffing Out a System and diverting Attention away from d'Grate Ones[self proclaimed][justice-of whom I speak he was ExCommunicated on Advertising Grounds re MS vs IC search engine.Of course FA exponent and No Due Respect to Great Ones also took him down]]

and of course,there was a constant disparagement of that singular poster ol' dogalog.

Oh rudy,remember what d'Cartel came to with dogalog?Well,they brought in a "Hired Gun" called Patch.He had some Boxing Bloke,Rocky Grazziano from d'50's as his emblem.Oh he was Real Impressive to a bunch of crawling,single malt swilling rubby/rugby following Twerps.Patch even had a Major Post in the Old Posts of Note Thread since been lost in d'IC Archives.Anyway,it's history now how d'Patch didn't Win.BooHoo.

Anyway I digress and want to point out one Other Anne Expose.[exposeeee]

The Crew,of Officiers'n'Gentlemen with chicks as Spectators also wished to make IC into a Nude/Bare Nq whatever[being phrase edited here Advetising?].
Such a Site is based on TA experts setting out/developing Systems/Methods unimpeded by Any Criticism let alone Jokes by the mere hoi polloi.Only the Invited,Chosen Ones will post and thus perhaps raise an Audience for when THEY hit the Lecture Circuit.

Anyway,I get put off when I get machine edited so Rudy I just want to put this to you-

There's a Multitude of Sections here at IC that are not being used.Psychology,Systems etc etc.

There's a darth of New Posters and I'm disappointed to read you are running with a Private Email non poster here group.

I urge you to spread out a bit even to only making ocassional comments in my tread New Hope in Long Term.

I've observed you have a Problem in Sizing your EW charts within IC format.When you or one of your fellow devotees post some of these charts it seems to Super Wiiiiiiden the whole thread making prose posts unreadable[one has to scroll vertical and horizontal let alone remember the sentence beginning]To solve this perhaps some consultation of required Sizing needs to be done?

In general,rudy I don't like EW.Seems something one does instead of Buying and Selling Shares as well as,well,rudy I hope ya don't mind me saying this but it smacks of Astrology which a bloke of your capabilities let alone age should have got over years ago.
What happened,rudy,didn't ya take ya dose back in d'Great AGE of AQUARIUS?

OHHHH when d'Mooon is in d'seventh house
and Jupiter aligns with Mars....

howling days,hey with just ice especially!!

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

colin_twiggs

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 01:53 pm:

Dug,

Please don't bother other posters with this kind of drivel. You are here through the good graces of the old school who gave you more reprieves/second chances than you had any right to.

Regards,
Colin

colin_twiggs

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 02:01 pm:

Rudy & Ody,

I hope that you attempted to resolve your differences privately. If that fails, the next step is to contact me to act as mediator.

Bringing a dispute onto the public forum seldom ends well and benefits nobody.

Regards,
Colin

rdumas

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 02:59 pm:

Hi Colin,

I think that you will find that things will get back to normal as of now. I agree with your thoughts about public brawling.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

rdumas

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 03:26 pm:

Hi Dug,

Anyway,I get put off when I get machine edited so Rudy I just want to put this to you-

There's a Multitude of Sections here at IC that are not being used.Psychology,Systems etc etc.

There's a darth of New Posters and I'm disappointed to read you are running with a Private Email non poster here group.

I urge you to spread out a bit even to only making ocassional comments in my tread New Hope in Long Term.

I've observed you have a Problem in Sizing your EW charts within IC format.When you or one of your fellow devotees post some of these charts it seems to Super Wiiiiiiden the whole thread making prose posts unreadable[one has to scroll vertical and horizontal let alone remember the sentence beginning]To solve this perhaps some consultation of required Sizing needs to be done?

In general,rudy I don't like EW.Seems something one does instead of Buying and Selling Shares as well as,well,rudy I hope ya don't mind me saying this but it smacks of Astrology which a bloke of your capabilities let alone age should have got over years ago.
What happened,rudy,didn't ya take ya dose back in d'Great AGE of AQUARIUS?

Not sure what you mean by machine edited so can't comment.

I have certainly spoken about most of the subjects that you mention with the exception of systems in the Our Daily Bread (ODB)thread. I know that your preference is for subjects to go in separate threads because it becomes easier to find at a later date but it would take away from what we were attempting to do in the ODB thread which was basically to talk about everything relating to the market. I do however see the sense of what you suggest. One of the issues is that I have been told that a number of posters only ever look at the ODB thread because it is the only one that interests them. For that reason I hesitated changing (he says after starting a new thread).

I began the private mailing thing when I left IC previously and people asked me privately to keep up the market wraps. There are a significant number of people on that list that do not use the IC forum (or any other forum) and never will and I owe it to them to keep sending them what they want. There are also times when the file size exceeds the 500kbyte limitation set by IC which prevents me from posting it on IC and I don't want to start sending multiple documents.

Re branching out onto other threads, I will make a point of doing that in future.

Re the sizing of charts in IC format, I don't appear to get the same problem as you mention. Every post that I do on IC is easily readable without having to use horizontal scroll bars on my computer so I'm not sure why you are having that problem on your computer. If you send me a screen capture of a problem page privately I will send you a screen capture of what it looks like on my computer if you want to investigate.

I do know that you don't like EW and Fib levels but that's one of the things that we all have to put up with. We take what we want and leave the rest for people who do like the other stuff. I also know though that you are more than capable of handling that fact so will continue to post what I think may be of interest to some people.

I don't think that I've taken that dose back in d'Great AGE of AQUARIUS but do believe in the healing properties of magnets and acupuncture. I don't care what heals me as long as it does. That's what makes us all 'special' ........ we're all different and what works for one will not on another.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

dug

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 04:00 pm:

rdumas wrote on Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 04:26 pm:
Not sure what you mean by machine edited so can't comment.

When I tried to post the name of another Site,IC has machine editing on certain words.It can not only be in four letter words which I "pride" myself on having a much wider vocabulary of including Four Syllable ones.

Other than that,I'm outta here Rudy for the moment.
You have NOT split the readership from Daily Bread IF these Lurkers have the email set on Hilarius Hall of Fame.So Ody shouldn't panic that he'll lose an Audience.Likewise you,rudy.

Of course if they/lurkers only log into the Site and do not take advantage of the email facility,do not even Register?well c'est la vie for d'passive lurker.
Bleeding FreeLoaders!!!

Anyhow,let's hope we get some Cat_lady posts.She handled d'Wise Men ripping into her Targeting 20% Method pretty well.
Maybe Mr Lunch will deign to grace our presence again and even resilient may rally round.
Keep Up d'Good Work,rudy but don't get a swelled head so much that I gotta come in chopping and watch that CC doing d'Greek in bearing gifts of Accolades.

cheers'n'regards.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 04:35 pm:

Hi Dug,

I agree with you about Cat Lady. She sure knows how to handle herself.......a true professional.

Re the swelled head. I'm sure that other posters will keep me on track.

Time to turn off the computer or I'll be in strife with the boss.

Cya later

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

justice

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 05:04 pm:

Hi ody:

My blue triangles are proving to be the best analytical graphic ever proposed - 98% accuracy to date.

First Hard Target is 912-914 before any likely fictional monster EW wave relinquishes to a retrace/reversal or "oops I'm heading in the wrong direction" epoch type event.

Cheers,
j

rdumas

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Sunday, April 12, 2009 - 03:59 pm:

S&P500 Possible Scenarios

There are certainly mixed signals being generated from my different TA methodologies that I think are worth throwing up for consideration.

The Positives

In spite of the real economy still showing signs of distress, investors have been going through a period of lower fear levels for the last 4 weeks or so as is shown by the VIX chart and the rally that has taken place so far. The last trading day in the US had the S&P500 close up 3.81% at 856.56

We can see from the above chart that the S&P500 has broken out of a descending trend channel that has been in operation since early October 2008. The TMF is also in positive territory and still shy of the overhead resistance shown in orange.

The index has also bounced off the all important 10 week EMA. Not shown on the chart was the fact that Thursday night's candle was not only a large one but it was also done on large volume. A number of other indicators are also indicating that further up movement is possible. All of these signs are quite bullish.

The Negatives

The following chart gives us more detail of what is happening with the market action.

From the above chart we can see that the S&P500 is forming a contracting rising wedge. From an EW perspective this formation could be an ending diagonal and would mark the end of the current rally. The result would be something similar to the dotted line shown in red. An additional couple of waves may be required but the next significant wave would be down once the direction of the wedge was resolved.

There is no doubt in my mind that the XJO on Tuesday will respond to the positive lead from Wall Street. What happens on the following day will no doubt be influenced by what happens on Wall Street.

Elliott Wave or not I would be expecting the upper boundary of the rising contracting wedge to provide resistance to a continued upward move. How much resistance it poses will only be determined by future market action but it does make me cautious at this point in time. With the amount of overhead resistance on the S&P500 it will be a difficult task for the S&P500 to power ahead at this stage without some retracement. Naturally enough a strong break through the upper boundary of the wedge would be very bullish and eliminate negative view of the EW perspective.

I have drawn a possible scenario based on the S&P500 bouncing off the lower boundary of the wedge pattern as another possibility.

It pains me to have to state the bleeding obvious but as with all TA analysis, the views expressed are suggesting possibilities rather than definite outcomes.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

captain_chaza

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Sunday, April 12, 2009 - 05:41 pm:

Ahoy Officer Dumas

There is never ever any Negative thinking individuals /Mutinous crew members onboard if you act 'Instinctivly and Without Hesitation!!"

Such is Life at Sea as it is on Land

Salute and Gods' speed

ody

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Sunday, April 12, 2009 - 06:50 pm:

Hi Rudy,

I thought I had posted something here a little while ago, but must have forgotten to do so after drafting it. I.e. I must have failed to press the POST button!

To keep the matter very short: I pointed out that I enjoyed your post on the market, and especially perhaps the second part, as I feel a similar degree of caution. I added that I have myself interpreted the VIX as disconcertingly low, while Ken more straightforwardly sees it as positive. These two view are stated on Our Daily Bread - I mention this for the sake of those who perhaps don't get ODB messages but want to see the various related posts on the market as it is currently being perceived on these two threads.

With greetings.

rdumas

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 08:30 am:

Hi Ody,

I am glad that you derive something of benefit from my charts. Hopefully this can continue into the future.

Regarding the VIX, what we need to keep in mind is that we live in 'interesting' times and VIX levels are currently low but only compared to the recent past. If we compare the current VIX levels to what they were in 2007 then we get a more accurate comparison to what is 'normal'.

Note that in 2007 the VIX was around the 0.12 level whereas it is currently close enough to 300% of that level. This shows us that there is still substantial distrust in the market but it is not at the level of around 670% of the normal level which was the case during the peak fear period.

One should also note that the relationship between the VIX and the market is not that of an inverse mirror image as some people would have imagined. That is to say that the market doesn't reach its lowest level when the VIX is at its greatest height.

What I read into this that during the market low established in early March 2009, the market felt that we were 'getting close to the bottom' and hence was not as fearful. Compare this to the high fear levels during October/November 2008 when we reached the termination point of the 'third' wave down during which time the market thought that the end of the world was about to hit us. The greatest fear is demonstrated when the future looks like a 'bottomless pit'.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

rdumas

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 08:33 am:

Captain Chaza,

You are absolutely correct !!

The opportunities need to be taken when they appear or you will live in the world of 'regret' and 'if only'.

The rally has a finite existence and it will be followed by a long period of 'lack of opportunity' for those who only go 'long' in the market.

It is equally true though that the first rule of investment is 'not to lose your money' so action needs to be tempered with caution (ie, appropriate stop loss levels)

By the way, my personal bias for the S&P500 is that the market will fall out of the bottom of the ascending wedge and will drag our market down with it in the next few days so I won't be getting too excited about the big day that we have on Tuesday on our market. It will be very interesting to see if it drops off dramatically after the morning glory burst by the amateurs.

(Message edited by rdumas on April 13, 2009)

(Message edited by rdumas on April 13, 2009)

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

ody

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 10:23 am:

RUDY: RECENT POSTS

As I thought you might know, but maybe I haven't said it enough, I ALWAYS value your charts and comments on them if they are concerned with let me say "ordinary T/A Analysis". I have always felt that your charting of that kind is unusally good, and that you draw defensible and cautious conclusions from it. There are no doubt - indeed there definitely are - EW components that you detect or build into your charts which seem to me to fit in with your overall thrust, as well as I how see the market myself. I have never felt that EW has no value at all. It is when you seem to me almost entirely absorbed by the "estoterics" of EW and the hardest things that anyone could be expected to achieve with it that, to speak frankly (not harshly), I think you are most at risk of seeming unconvincing. Even then you are often more or less right - but may also be temporarily "out". I realise that it is part of the method that constant revision of options is necessary, but if meanwhile an option has been put forward that then turns out to have "misfired", as it were, that is disconcerting (not least when the option originally seemed seductive), and it means that someone following you constantly must remember that the method is actually very fluid in its assessments. Or at least that is how it comes across to me. It may well be that we simply have to agree to disagree on this, in good will on both sides.

But your more ordinary T/A analysis is in any case superb, which I have always believed, and it is that form which I think the vast majority of us are all agreed on as being of a very high standard, and - most importantly - as unquestionably practical and useful.

As for the VIX: we share some similar thoughts about this. I can see that as Ken argued a low fear level seems good - but also still believe that it may signal (unintended) over-confidence in the market which may suggest forthcoming dangers. Ken is right, of course, that in that case one worries about something that is not with us. But that is in my nature - I look ahead at the spooks that may come to haunt us ahead of there appearing to be any evicence of their presence. Even so I thought Ken's argument was very clear and to the point, and undeniably a strong one.

Again, I would not want to base unduly firm conclusions on what this indicator by itself tells us at a particular point, or may implicitly warn us about as much as reassure.

My general sense remains, in any case, that the SP500 may well still go up a bit and may even surprise but that, as you say, it is bound to be held back by resistance. My worry is that an over-confident market will not acknowledge that resistance sufficiently and push on, yet get hit by it. I just don't find the idea of ongoing rallying quite unpersuasive at this stage, even if I have no truly specific point in mind as to when the market may turn. For myself I would find anything like 30-35% from the bottom a high valuation for the moment: this would still allow some action, but not an awful lot. This is a guesstimate only. I think the overhead resistance and lingering doubt still remains THE most serious barrier to ongoing rallying.

So though you, CC and I are all agree one must not let opportunies pass one by, I think they are limited just now. On the other hand, I have found it useful to be IN the market since early January: I have gained rather than lost, though the battle still remains difficult. My defensiveness has made me perform better than the market, and not unfruitfully. But I have also found it educationally very useful to participate, independently of money lost or gained. And there are some good individual opportunities, I have found, that one might not guess exist if one looks at the market only.

I shall put this on ODB as well, for those who look only there - they may still find this useful, or want to read posts here as a result. The two threads are not mutually exclusive.

rdumas

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 11:09 am:

Ody,

We share the same cautious nature about the market and at times like this the more positive approach of the Captain will do very well. Ken also correctly raises the valid argument that one should trade what is there rather than what may happen. Our cautious approach will at times mean that we miss the opportunities that are presented. We are all different and there is no doubt that we have to adopt a trading style that is in tune with risk profile or we will fail dismally.

Our cautious approach has saved us from losing over 50% of our capital. It would be a hard task master who finds fault with that. I personally am very happy at having departed the market and going into cash deposits during the period of the current crash.

Regarding EW. We all learn in different ways and I clearly stated at the outset my intention of focussing on that methodology as a way of optimising the learning process.

I did take a huge risk of exposing myself to criticism during the learning process by sharing that learning process. I do know that whilst there were a few people who were concerned about me and thought that I had lost my mind during this learning period because it looked like I was ignoring other TA skills that had always provided valuable insights into the market. The upside was that there were others who started off being sceptical and ended up recognising the value of the methodology. To that end I am happy to have shared the experience because it meant that others also grew through the experience. So in future I would ask that you have more faith in my self knowledge.

What I hoped from my friends is understanding that during a learning process, mistakes can be made. I believe that the process that I went through was necessary and its implementation has allowed me to get to a stage with EW that would otherwise have taken possibly years to achieve. In stead it was a process that was reasonably well completed in a few months.

After undertaking that study, I am now in a position to truly evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology and can now embed it into my overall box of TA tools. Regardless of any particular views that others may have I know that it was a worthwhile endeavour and has given me an even more complete knowledge of the market than previously attained.

By way of analogy I would like to say that is extremely important for people to recognise that many times during the construction phase of a project, the item under construction doesn't look very nice. When it is under construction it is only fair to allow the builder to complete the project before attacking the project.

Anyway. I do recognise that you have been reaching out and I accept the olive branch. The past is past and there is a future out there. Let us rest in the knowledge that the only people that can hurt us are those that we care about most so my reading of the latest turmoil is that we obviously have a healthy respect for each other for us to experience the pain that we both obviously did.

Amen

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

ody

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 12:24 pm:

Rudy, - Thanks for all of that, both in your constructive attitude and the points you are making. It all makes sense to me and is admirably positive. I think it is not at all unhealthy if we disagree on matters, but it clearly is a pain to both of us, and destructive, if that leads to something personalised and ill feeling on either or both sides. I do increasingly understand, rest assured, why at at times some of your EW experimentation seems so curiously out of tune with the market, which I have found the hardest to live with. As you know, I tend to stay very close to where the market actually is, at a particular moment, how it tends to move at that stage, and - as far as I can work out - why, and might go on from there. I constantly look also for turning points, closely and as I go along (as well as being interested in what might be ahead a bit further down the track).

With your ordinary T/A, what you come up with seems to me almost unerringly in tune with what I see myself (and vice versa). So this is where the whole EW experiment has at times greatly "thrown" me in its novelty. My own inclination has been to continue to trust your ordinary T/A, but often not so the EW analysis if that sharply deviated (as it seemed to me).

Anyway, I think we now have good mutual understanding of each other's difficulties around this, and I would think that from here on there should no longer be so much of a gap, or indeed friction, as a result.

As for let us say the "optimists" and the "pessimists" about the market right now, I think that both CC and Ken are more optimistic than us, and may or may not be justified in their views. From a purely practical point of view, as I actually do have money in the market, I am more prepared than you to "ride" the market for a bit, but my instinctive caution may well lead me to abandon at the least certain stocks more readily (as you may remember I sold BHP and MQG the other day, which means less exposure, and in particular to two stocks that I think are not exactly the least vulnerable to sentiment).

But at the same time I think I may be just a bit more inclined towards at least the POSSIBILITY that we may see a positive market for a while yet, and am particularly keen not to avoid making money with those stocks I have the most confidence in, esp. one like IMF. So here we may not be approaching things in exactly the same vein.

All in all I think there may be a temporary opportunity yet (perhaps not for long), and perhaps a somewhat better chance with some specific stocks that they will continue to do well. I also think that it is POSSIBLE that we will not quite go back to the previous lows, or at least not fall through where we appear for now to have based. But I keep an open mind even about a really disastrous fall, at some point. And I'd like to think that if we DO get a significant march up I will pick it soon enough, and not walk away from participation if the T/A strikes me as strong enough (as in 2H of 2007). In that case one would have to be ready to leave the market again in good time if the rally is likely to be big but temporary.

I still feel deeply sceptical about putting a large amount into the market before I feel we have stronger reasons, even if they were to be merely technical ones. In H2 of calendar year 2007 I was quite confident to invest on the basis of T/A only - but not now, to nearly the same extent.

eblode

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 03:55 pm:

Ody/Rudy,

May I congratulate you both for acting as civilized gentlemen.

Eugenio

ken

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 09:26 pm:

Ody,

Don't credit me with too much optimism - I am in strictly for short term trades. I think you may be demonstrating more optimism than me by being in to some degree as a long termer.

I may have views re optimism and pessimism (or long/short/indecision), but I trade primarily on what my systems say to do.

I use twentyish optimised and tested systems, including a couple of short systems, several to buy when things have fallen hard, some to buy low when the market starts upwards, and some when new highs are made in stocks in a rising market. Also some cater for when the Aussie market doesn't follow the US markets.

The systems that are giving me stocks to buy indicate to me which of these phases the market seems to be going through, but all systems are profitable and get me out of a bad situation, not perfectly but well enough.

However as a corollary of all this, I find that I am a hopeless discretionary trader compared to the systems. This gives me a lot of incentive to follow the systems as accurately as possible.

None of the systems tell me to buy at the open in advance, which is why I don't enter the weekly comp.

Ken

eblode

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Monday, April 13, 2009 - 11:53 pm:

Gentlemen & Cat Lady,
Several months ago I posted on IC that the world is looking for a hero to lift us out of the doom and gloom we are experiencing. Well I feel that with the rescue of Captain Phillips in the daring exploits of the Navy Seals we have the hero that will lift the doom and gloom, for a while at least, and this will be reflected in the DOW. The media will carry more stories and even a ticket tape parade down 5th Ave. may happen all in the political process of restoring confidence and pride in the American public. Even the idea of chasing Pirates out of their Somalian hideouts will excite the public and make them forget their woes.
I shall reverse my position of last week and plunge back into the market with the dawns early light. The bear will continue to climb north at least for the next few weeks if not longer.

Eugenio

captain_chaza

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Tuesday, April 14, 2009 - 06:34 pm:

Ahoy Officer Kenny

The biggest problem one faces at Sea is Lying to himself and Others
Once the plague of Lying sets in
All the senses of reality are Lost

Do you base your 20 system tests on the Close?

If you do?
then you are only Lying to yourself

The Open is the only True Figures you can then work on
Crikey!
That sounds to me like a novice Sea-Cadet who Does all of his Research based on the Close and then Discovers it dosn't work because of the Overnight GAPS and screams
"Blue Murder!"

Believe me!!
Even the Indecies Gap overnight except you won't see it in the Charts

Anyway Kenny
There are 2 buying opportunities in the Weekly Regatta
Friday's Close if you are so inclined
and
Monday's open

I'd love to see you there one-day when you make the necessary Adjustments for Leeway on the Opening Prices after taking into consideration
"Gapping Formations"

Salute and Gods' speed

mook

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Tuesday, April 14, 2009 - 06:44 pm:

Hi eblode,

What is the difference between a dead cat bounce and a bull rally? It doesn't really matter in the short term, both make us money.If you are not in, you are out.Therefore,with your knowledge of the shares to own, I hope you have a fabulous time. By the way,I own some OST shares. Am I safe for now?

Cheers,

mook

dug

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Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 09:31 am:

Rudy,Ken,anyone with "Advanced" maths skills-

I'm trying to get the Gist of Compounding [beyond being informed that Einstein "discovered" it so it must be Good]

So I know the Rule of 72 is applied so that if you want/aim to Double your Capital in 3 months/12 weeks you have to Average 6%/week rolling it over[so if one is less ambitious Double in a Half Year is 2.04% per week]

Anyhow the "trick" is in Rolling over and the constant week in week out getting of 6% again week upon week.

AND I want some education on how the Percent Required Rises or Falls when you have a Loss Week.
Do you follow?

Say a month in,you LOSE 6% of your Compounded Capital.What percent,and how is it calculated to give you at that point a New Weekly Percent Goal to still achieve your Doubling by the End of Quarter?

Alternatively what's the Maths on calculating new percent required if you have a good week say getting 18%,even more.

I reckon Compounding,use of the Rule of 72 is the "secret" formula "mucked around" with by Black Box Promoters and other basic Charalatans.

It's also,of course,basic to Banking Profitability and How people get caught by Reverse Mortages and buying cars/taking holidays by borrowing at low interest Home rates but signing up over Long Time.

Anyhow,a true understanding of Compounding is a base,scientific Formula for aspiring Share Traders/Investors to set their Goals by especially if they have Low Capital.

It sets the required basis for Reviewing your Plan,Rejigging your Goals etc etc.
Once one can grasp that an understanding of Compounding,purely a Maths Formula calculating a required weekly/monthly/quarterly percent to Go 100%.Get that in ya head?
Well,then the Fun Bit comes in getting your head around all the Technical/Fundamental/Psycho Thwarts'n'Tricks that the Stock Market can throw up to both Achieve and Annihilate one's pilgrimage to Mammon.

regards.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

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Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 10:15 am:

Hi Dug,

I don't have the advanced maths skills to work out a simple formula that you could just slot in the loss making period to re-adjust the target percentage. I notice that the rule of 72 could also be the rule of 69.3 as per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72

I would have to do it all long hand from first principles to re-adjust the figures.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

dug

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Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 10:44 am:

yes,pen'n'paper with simple X 1.06 gives the figures for each week of a 12 week run required,rudy.

One can see where you're supposed to be and compare it to Real Price.Then I suppose you'd bring in Trading Range,Some Volatility Measure on the Particular Share to judge whether you were On Track.

Thanks for the Link,rudy.
I'm always irritated that Compounding is usually referred to Authoratively as to do MAINLY with YEARS of say Bank Interest;
when Years is just a measure of Time and in Share Trading results can be interpreted as giving the number of TIMES a given percentage will have to be achieved to Double one's Money in a given TIME Period[Qtr/Half etc].

Anyway,pen'n'paper Maths is good enuf to get some Parameters down to work against so I'm not looking for a Machine/Maths2 Absolute to work with.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

visions

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Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 03:40 pm:

Rule of 72 & Trading over a number of periods
rule of 72 & trading over a number of periods.xls (39.4 k)

Hi Dug,

Meant to do this a while ago and when I seen your request I thought, just do it and get it out of the way. So all done.

If I have attached it properly to this post you will find a spreadsheet that should fill your wants in your posts above. You will only have to change the white cells with your own info but I think it will explain itself.

Hope you or anyone else finds it handy.

Cheers ... Visions

dug

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Thursday, April 16, 2009 - 10:01 am:

Greetings visions,
Have you used these figures in any Practical Sense?
If so,tell me/us about it?
I imagine that they could be used for Portfolio Management ie Monthly Review?
I assume Rule 72 is "explored" by Nicholson in his ROAR system/method.I've only read the Free "teaser" on ROAR etc.

Also do you make any use of it when setting IC search engine parameters?

So all in all,visions give d'Gist,the purpose for using this String of Figures.How can one use them Profitably as another Tool to achieve Goals?

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

visions

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Friday, April 17, 2009 - 10:13 am:

Hi Dug,

}}Have you used these figures in any Practical Sense? No.

I have not seen Nicholson “teaser” on ROAR system/method. Actually, I thought ROAR was Alan Hull’s little baby.

Portfolio Management? At this stage I have given this no thought.

Also do you make any use of it when setting IC search engine parameters? No Dug, only did the spreadsheet on Wednesday in response to a few things you raised in posts 3502 & 3503 plus I wanted it for my own use in the future if needed.

The main purpose was to be able to work out how many time periods and what return (% per time period) was needed to double your money.
Yes I know we have running costs that will come out of our bank so it will take a bit longer, how long will depend on individual’s costs.

3503: I changed the MAINLY with YEARS to Time Periods so it didn’t irritate you.

3503: One can see where you're supposed to be and compare it to Real Price. Now we have put in our bank, say $10,000 and the timeframe period that we are chasing, and in this case 12 periods, you will see the Target Aim column in each period will be filled with the perfect results that we wanted. Each period achieving 6% and also showing next period’s needs which is naturally 6%.
BUT in the results column we put our Real Price in (white cell) this is what we really DO finish with, at the end of each period.
Let’s say the first period we reach our target of 6% or in this case $600, we put in our end balance $10,600 and you will see Result column is the same as the Target Aim column.

3502: AND I want some education on how the Percent Required Rises or Falls when you have a Loss Week. Do you follow?

Say a month in, you LOSE 6% of your Compounded Capital. What percent, and how is it calculated to give you at that point a New Weekly Percent Goal to still achieve your Doubling by the End of Quarter?

Now in the Period 2 we drop/lose $600 in this period and we drop back to $10,000 as our end balance. When we put this in you will notice in the result column our profit is -$600 and also it shows where we are Real Price as to where you're supposed to be. Our $$ Target + or – cell is showing we are -$1236.00 to where we should be and down a little further it shows the $ & % Profit needed for the next period to bring it back on track and in this case it requires $1910.16 or 19.1%.

Say if for the next 2 periods after this we only achieve our 6% per period, we put in our end balances of $10,600 in period 3 and $11,236 in period 4. Now over in the Where are we after 4 Periods? Section you can change the % return number to a figure that will give you the outcome you were after at the start. So with 8 periods left keep changing this figure until 8 More Periods result shows your back to double your bank, which in this case is 7.5 approximately.

So you might find that trying to return 19.1% in 1 period to catch up is very hard but 7.5% over the next 8 periods is not too bad.

So Dug that’s d’Gist of it all, you probably worked it all out but just in case someone had a query and didn’t ask I thought I’d better cover it.

Just thought it might be handy for you in relation to your posts that’s all, nothing else at this stage but if I think of how it can be tied in I shall post it here. If you can use it, fantastic otherwise, just give it d’Flick.

Cheers … Visions

dug

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Friday, April 17, 2009 - 10:50 am:

Visions,
The weekly Comp[in Short Term section] runs on a 3month Goal of Doubling one's $5grand stake.Most contestants change their pick every week.I've entered with the Ambition of choosing a Single Share,Dyesol to achieve 100% alone in 3 months.

By this arvo,I will post my chart where I will intro a Rule of 72 Monitor Line to my chart.I will use my REAL Buy Price of some 5 weeks ago[70c] but that will not be "True" to this Comp because I have an "artifical" designated Buy price from the Comp start some 3 weeks ago[86].

Anyhow by a simple multipication by 1.06 12 times one comes up with a string of weekly "goals" to monitor progress and,well,visions see the Chart and follow d'Learning Curve.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Saturday, April 18, 2009 - 12:29 pm:

visions wrote on Friday, April 17, 2009 - 11:13 am:
Have you used these figures in any Practical Sense? No.

Got some thoughts on Practical Purpose for your Maths Calculation,Vision.
Here's a Daily Chart of DYE that shows an example of how the Goal of 100% in 3 months leads one to have "anxious" days of worrying if you're on the Right Track ie share is Trading Below Goal Line.

Now the "panic room" ie Non Goal Achieving by using our Rule of 72 ONLY, is a very common day,hey?
but is "tempered" by the use of any other simple Indicator,TA knowledge etc etc blah.
In this case simple Trend Line/150EMA/Break Out Set Up/Triangle pattern all those lines and squiggles "stuff".

Panic ie selling on a day like Friday,COULD also be backed by contemplating that DYE may well return 95 ish next week,still on the 72R AND the Uptrend Lines/Support etc.

Now that'd be a Temptation,hey visions?
Get 20%[109-95=14 Profit from 70 initial purchase]You're not cashing out just accumulating etc etc.All that stuff,visions you've read about How2Trade.

Anyhow,you were right that's it's Hull who does ROAR.I must be getting Old to mix up Names like that.
I hope my scribblings give you some ideas for your own personal use and thanks for the SpreadSheet giving us all the Maths BackUp of How to Achieve 100% in a Given Period.

Oh,before signing off on this post,there's some further "advice" to d'Pilgrims to Mammon

a]I reckon the Rule 72 can only be applied,on the less than a year 100%,with SMALL Capital say 20grand$.One shouldn't Plunge say 100grand on it.One COULD have a 100grand$$$ Portfolio/Total and use $20000 of it as a Boiler Room.Give some UMPHHHHF to ya Blue Chips.

b]R72 in 3months requires High Volatility Picks ie under say $2 or probably Market Cap under $200 mil?This leads to only about $5000 individual parcels.By my reckoning anyway especially for GunnerBe Share Traders.

Lastly please understand that there is NO Withdrawals of Profits for LifeStyle Enhancing.You can't give up d'Day Job if you're on d'Rule of 72 Track.Never Borrow to enhance ya chances even if/when you get a Handle/Appreciation of Rule of 72.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Sunday, April 19, 2009 - 01:17 pm:

Rudy,
saw your post about channels in Daily Waffle

and chucked some on to my Dye Chart.

Now I don't really favour Channels.It seems that every time I have a Go with them they break down,go unconfirm.Of course I'm trying to set up Channels early in a share and not mapping Years of an Index whatever.
Also I'm more concerned with setting a Bottom Line and I have to admit that I don't "Dig" the Top Line and how it limits one's Blue Sky Outlook.

Anyway,I also like to jazz up my Horizontals and Verticals with Candle and "story/FA" line Confirmation Signals.

So[a] Base Line is a positive Return to a longer term trend.Check out the candle that formed when this Broke Februish let alone the Confirmation Gap when it re established.It sure is NOT some line on a Page,hey worthless TA,right?

Now [b] is not only a fine example of Island Cluster Reversal but,rudy a story goes with it.

See that Island formed[and gave a point for this channel] when this Yank Billionaire Dave Gellbaum stopped distributing 1% of Total Shares on Issue out of his 18% Personal Holding.

Do you follow?He sold something like 2%,went down from 18ish% to about 14 now and it all got jumbled up with the recent Option expiry and in the end our Dave d'Billionaire got diluted as well as sold to make him have to issue a Sub Notice!!

Sorry as I say I love a story that goes with it.

Point is that when Dave put in this Change notice,it was "revealed" that the Last Day he Sold on was right in that Island Cluster.Follow?

Well,rudy this is where it got really interesting and INDICATIVE.

See as you know,Rudy a Change Sub Notice is SUPPOSED to Issue within 3 days of d'Trigger Event.

Even though Dave is advised in Australia by these Fancy Southern Lawyers[Mintons] what do you think went down and also possibly formed that cluster break by Gap?

The Notice didn't issue for something like 10days at least after that Cluster Sale happened.
Yet check the price action in the week after the cluster.
breaking the 150.Do you see it as a Dump?

Wouldn't one more expect such a "reaction" maybe only AFTER the Sub Note Issued?
After all it hadn't been Announced at this time and such a Drop usually has some Reaction to Sub Holder Selling as a Cause.

Anyway I reckon someone knew from even Compushare,let alone Lawyers or even Company Secretary/Directors that Dave had Sold.
They hit d'Smarty Panic Button believing that were anticipating a Wacko Bottom on the News release that could be traded.

Further I figure that that was WHY said Notice was delayed in Issuing...oh dark plots,rudy ya gotta LUV 'em!!

but it's time for my Sunday nap

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

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Sunday, April 19, 2009 - 01:52 pm:

Hi Dug,

You certainly know how to pick winners mate. I note that since the release of the following news, the stock has taken off again in the last 3 days. Did those lawyers give you the heads up before it happened?

dye market release note.pdf (156.6 k)

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

qed

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Sunday, April 19, 2009 - 02:40 pm:

congrats to whoever chose FRS as well ,IMO it has good way to go as well

polpak

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Monday, April 20, 2009 - 10:01 am:

Worth keeping in mind is what on HotCopper, Jaded writes re DYEsol:

Why 125 is "important" is that that is the Exercise Price for Employee Options pretty much now[up from prev 20cents].These are still some years off "expiring" at present by do GIVE a basic Management Goal.

visions

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Monday, April 20, 2009 - 04:39 pm:

Hi Dug,

Thanks for your posts and insights.

I understand with only 1 or a couple of shares we can keep it simple with, like you say “by a simple multiplication” and draw that line (Rule of 72 Monitor Line) on the chart. It is easy to see how we are tracking for sure in regards to this line and is probably all you need. Once again, the KISS system!

I remember about 2 years ago Colin stated he would be introducing a % Gain Line within a few weeks but it was only going to be a preset 25% Gain Line.

I think it would be better to have a % linked to the trendline, worked out by where you start the trendline (date and value) and where you finish the trendline (date and value) giving you a rise or fall in % terms of your trendline. That way it’s adjustable.

OOPPPS, sorry, drifted off track there!!

In the weekly comp Dug; you keep the admin work to a minimum on tracking your performance because of the purchase of only 1 share. Whereas the others have lots of share purchases to keep track of and this is where I see a need for a spreadsheet like mine to keep track and to see how they are performing overall to the Rule of 72. As I see it, with so many selections you would have to just go with the end balances for each period to keep track of them.

I think picking only 1 stock requires extra study, research and experience to succeed in getting a sure-fire winner to double in 3 months. I know I would not be able to do this time and time again. I’m a 40%’er, keep my losses small and let my winners run, which one will be the big one … I don’t know, so I would more than likely be like the others and pick multiple shares over the journey.

Doing it different, good on you Dug. I haven’t looked back at all those selections from all the others, to see if their shares had a run after their current week had ended and they changed horses for the next week. Mmmm, ok something to think about.

Your points in post 3511; “before signing off” a] b] and “Lastly”
I feel this is very good advice or guidance and I think most of the traders within the weekly comp would agree also because I don’t see any picking the slower movers (Blue Chips) to win these comps over 3 months. It’s mostly in the area raised in your b] comments. Although if they were so bullish on the markets they could have picked say MQG and stuck with that for the last 3 months and doubled their money. Hehehe.

I see what your saying in just having the Rule of 72 line on your chart and you dip below and then jump way above it and how it would start the greed and fear racing off in your heart and brain. Now that would probably be me if I only had one share, hehehe so that’s why I go for more trades and don’t rely only on 1 trade.

Yes, I’m also aware you just don’t have 1 trade going.

Once again Dug, thanks for the posts and thoughts.

Cheers … Visions

dug

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Wednesday, April 22, 2009 - 09:12 am:

Thanks for your response,visions.Too often one gets some feedback,you reply and start a dialogue only for d'Responder to Drop Out/Off.
Anyway,I dislike ANY response that is one line 50words>,not much info/indication on where d'Pilgrim is at.

Anyway we've established that the Rule of 72 ia NOT about a Yearly Interest Rate but a %rate maths variable of the number of TIMES a given rate will Double in What TIME Frame.

So 6% weekly/fortnightly/monthly gives DOUBLE in a Quarter/Half/Year Time Frame.
If one had Multiple Shares,this information could be used in Reviewing Your Cash/Value of All Holdings as the Goal-
Price ie looking at the 6% hitting,on course,in Time Frame.

Now this'd all be a bit Obsessive if done on a Daily Basis but extremely useful I suggest for Monthly/Quarterly Review Purposes even Weekly.For example in identifying Laggards let alone Motivation of Stop Implementation AND Search Engine Criteria "tweaking".

My father's only Real Advice to me was All Work is Boring.Like a Brain Surgeon has to do Hum Drum most of the Time so it's not much good having a MindSet that seeks Exciting Every Day's a Thrilling experience in Making Money ie Share Trading SHOULD be Boring if one aspires to a Career in it.

but,visions the Rule of 72 gives d'Path for a Pilgrim to Mammon but it HIGHLIGHTS the requirement to Roll ya Capital Over and I remember reading about some Wizard of WallStreet;
One who DID it with his Own Money not diddled with someone else's to Success
and how this Wizard lived on Baked Beans for a year or more while getting his Capital Together.

Do you see how all the Promoters/SalesTypes always use Instant Wealth beyond ya current status Fast Tracked as d'Lure to d'Gullible?

Anyway,visions hope to see you posting on this thread or anywhere else IC again.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 01:41 pm:

Screams REVERSAL,A Vision of Pre Retracement hey rudy?
but remember what THEY say.Every Retracement is a Buying Opportunity.
So where's it gunner Go down to,rudy?What price would be an Excellent Grade Top Up Position Price.

As usual,I'm up for DisPutes especially reasoned argument so you first,rudy What ya reckon and Why?What's ya cold hard take on my Wonder Share Dyesol.Use any tool/instrument/indicator ya like.My education is woeful on most all indicators.[Took note of ya Daily Crust posts this week]
but all I've got is some Assumptions to yeah or nay your Reading.
Friday was an Outside Reversal Candle.The Parabolic Line is signalling,awaiting confirmation by a sub 110 Open or Trading Monday.I'm expecting that but as this is a Long Term Trade not a ST Hit I'm willing to take a Loss of Paper Profits by not crystalling Actual Profits on Monday's Open.

Anyway,in ya own time for reply,rudy.I'm off for my Saturday Arvo Down Time.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

captain_chaza

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 02:20 pm:

Ahoy d'ere Dug
or should this read
Ahoy there Thug

What you consider to be Up-Time I consider to be Down-Time

Each to his own ,I guess

rdumas

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 03:05 pm:

Hi Dug,

I agree with you that it looks like a possible reversal on the cards but the Slow Stochastic looks like it could also have a fraction more to go.

The intra-day chart also looks like there is a possibility for another thrust up of around $0.15 before a retracement. Note that the recent last leg down retraced around 50% of the prior leg up so if it is going to turn up it would probably happen at this level.

Anyway, assuming you are right and there is a reversal due on Monday, the red and blue lines show you where the support levels are.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

ody

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 04:08 pm:

Another view on the future of the market in the short to medium term

Alan Kohler these days on Saturday mornings sends subscribers to The Eureka Report his own personal reflections on the week (including the latest for the northern hemisphere), and they are well worth reading. The extract below (beginning of today's email) is particularly interesting concerning what might eventuate in the markets on the basis of a very similar previous rally, if we are to believe in such a resemblance. (I am sorry I can provide ER charts, but they are not essential for the argument.)

If history WERE to report itself in this instance, then the down-leg after the rally would be quite severe.
--------------------------------------
Week in View

By Alan Kohler
----------------------------

Would you believe Wall Street has finished the week almost square? This morning’s close on the Dow Jones is 8,076, up 1.5 per cent for the session, while the S&P 500 has closed at 866, up 1.7 per cent. The Dow is still down 0.7 per cent for the week, but on Wednesday it looked like the rally was over and I was congratulating Bob Gottliebsen for having called the top on Monday. There seems to be a bit of life in the rally yet.

So have we seen the bottom? Is the rally now going to extend in May and June and then turn into a new bull market? Very unlikely. The rally might keep going for a few weeks yet, but I think there are new lows for the market up ahead this year.

Yesterday I interviewed Graham Harman, Citi’s Australian strategist, for tomorrow’s Inside Business on the ABC because he knows all about the history of Australian bear markets. He makes a simple and fairly unsophisticated observation that this one probably hasn’t finished because it hasn’t gone long enough yet.

Major bear markets always last between two and two and a half years. This one is 18 months old and it’s about as major as they come. Ergo, it’s not over.

Graham says he doesn’t know whether the All Ordinaries will fall back below the early March lows, but he thinks the six-week rally that started on March 9th looks very similar to the rally in April/May 1982. You might have seen it on the ABC news last night, when I used Graham’s graph to display the history of bear markets in Australia (if you missed it it’s at Kohler’s Graphs on the Eureka Report website).

The graph looks like spaghetti when you first look at it because he is showing 11 Australian bear markets, but you can see the 1982 episode in blue just above the current one (in red). The point Graham is making is that the April/May rally of 1982 was the last bear market spurt before the final “washout” which took the All Ords back to just below the previous lows – which then turned out to be the low point of the bear market.

Every episode is different, although Graham reckons that out of all the previous ones, this one and its causes look most similar to 1981/1982. We’ll see. The bottom line for you, I think, is that if you are thinking of wading back into the sharemarket, or even tiptoeing back with a judicious purchase, you should probably wait: stocks will be cheaper than they are now, if not cheaper than they were in early March.
--------------------------
[Was continued]

dug

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 04:41 pm:

I don't do Intra Day,rudy.Mainly because I don't have that Programme Function but also so I'm not overwhelmed with Signals.After all I use Market Depth watching as a Technique and any method needing Live Feed Expense I've saved.

Anyhow the Depth Action Friday was highlighted by an open Ask of 100k to Sell at 115.
It sat there got nibbled but got swamped/taken out of the Front Line Action by all these smaller parcels going I'll take 14/13 etc down to 110.I see by ya intra chart that's documented as the First Half Action.

However not only was this some cause for Paranoia,this Big Ask it was also contributed to by a News Announcement.
News was that d'Chief Directors Gav and Sylv had SOLD some 150k recently.It was them that got some 250k of shares out of Escrow awhile back so all d'Boys of d'Barbque Set Traditions went---
Wait a Minute isn't there some "Prestigeous" Tip Sheet called d'Inside Trader,ohhhh wannabe?just cough up half a grand/year and we'll read Notices for ya and send you Info on ANY Share that has recent Buy'n'Sell by Directors Notices.See that's an Insider Trick/Joke Neophyte See if d'Directors BUY well so should you and viceaversa on Directors Selling!!
Simple hey,well worth $500+ for getting such Secrets of d'Market..

ohhh despair hey rudy when a fella is sucked in by Shysters and Conners in their search to cut corners on d'Pilgrimage to Mammon.It's always fella/Jack d'Lads who get so caught,Shielas aren't known IMHO for being sucked in by Go4Glory Types.Look at d'Divorce Rate and Who has 3 or more Marriages for one thing!!

Anyway,I'm on d'Drift to FA and I'm running out of time to get to my TA points.
Basically The PLOT opens with Gaps.
Marked on the chart are some Historical Gaps 1/2/3 but there not ALL marked.You'll just have to find them yaself!

My basic Thesis is that they are occuring in a price range that is confirming support/resist and also that DYE's days of surpressed price MAY be over.ie the UpTrend is ON and the triangle at [a] is still on target to do 52/90 is 128ish Goal.

As I say,there's more thoughts even that could be considered Insider that could drive DYE 125 and even more like 160.
but that is only Insider me Head.

gotta go,rudy
cheers

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

resillent1

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 04:55 pm:

Dug

Do you hold exposure to DYE because you like the merits of the underlying business or because you think the market is about to understand its merit and reprice accordingly.

If it's the underlying business that is the motivation than why get all tied up about the "rate" at which the market is marking-up the price. At some stage the price will come to reflect the business prospects - how and when this happens won't alter the return to a long-term holder. The only thing that matters is how cheaply you bought (a possible one off benefit if the business is re-rated) and how well the underlying business performs over your holding period.

The market recognises and re-rates business in fits and bursts - I'm not sure that DYE has the liquidity for valid short term TA conclusions - the actions of single individuals rather than mass psychology seem to drive the shorter time frames - without knowing the individuals motivations the moves are extremely hard to participate in.

I know you study the register of DYE and so have some understanding of individual holdings and possibly a basis for expecting a 100% return in 3 months.

In general though I think your idea of a momentum yardstick is better applied to highly liquid shares where you are interested only in riding along with the crowd and their short-term re-ratings.

If the trade management is based on what the crowd is doing (momentum) than decisions shouldn't be influenced by the business fundamentals. If you mix the two you will eventually have to decide which one you value the most when price momentum and business fundamentals disagree - As at some stage they certainly will.

The point – if you won’t sell DYE if it falls below your line of 72 than why pay any attention at all to it?

Apart from applying momentum to stocks that you wouldn’t actually sell if they don’t make the hurdle – I think Momentum is an excellent tool for short-term systems.

Successful short-term systems that I have implemented have been based on regression lines to approximate a stocks average price (similar to a moving average) I then sort all stocks I’m interested in by the slope of the regression line to find the ones with the greatest momentum. Then it’s simply a case of finding a small price pattern and trading a break in the direction of the larger trend. A slowing of the open positions momentum would trigger the exit.

Cheers

(Message edited by resillent1 on April 25, 2009)

captain_chaza

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 05:17 pm:

A very warm Welcome back Officer Resilient One

Similarly, to the point you raised above

Would you agree with me that If Markets Go Up on Good news as they go UP on Bad news
What's the point of reading any News at all?

Surely it then makes sense to say that all Fundamental news gathering is a waste of time

Salute and Gods' speed

resillent1

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 05:35 pm:

CC

If trading the short-term price action than everything else apart from the price itself is a waste of time and a distraction.

That's not to say that news or fundamental based approaches are not valid ways of investing.

It's not the ingredients that are dangerous it's only the mixing that creates the intoxicating brew that fosters costly dithering and indecisiveness.

resillent1

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 07:18 pm:

A table I came across calculating some possible levels for the XAO. I don’t have any of my data with me at the moment to check the numbers but it should be accurate enough to act as food for thought.

I think the PE's for the bearish case level corresponds with PE's achieved in 1970's. Interesting that the bearish level nominated for earnings is a fall to the long-term trend. I would have thought an overshoot of earnings to the low side of the trend would not be out of the question.

Plenty of room within the range to accommodate what ever your bias may be - the real interest is what the possibilities are from the opposing point of view.

dug

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Sunday, April 26, 2009 - 10:40 am:

resillent1 wrote on Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 05:55 pm:
Do you hold exposure to DYE because you like the merits of the underlying business or because you think the market is about to understand its merit and reprice accordingly

Both.I'm using the Rule 72 Line as a Gimmick in the Weekly Contest.It was "invented" mainly to highlight that Compounding Maths is applicable to Penny Shares as a Rate Measure and NOT as it is usually applied as only relevant to Bank Interest over Years.

DYE and my interest in it comes from my findings on going over Green Shares as a DIY Sector.I haven't my list to hand right now but I "sectored" at least a Dozen Contenders and WatchListed them and added/subtracted more over time.
Anyhow the "best" I could come up with were CFU,CNM and DYE.

CFU proved a Disaster.I think mainly because it was run by Boffins with No Business Sense and who were running that usual Melbourne Act of AngloPhobe,wanting Shareholders to pay for their stay at Claridges.Anyway I grew to despise CFU.

Never liked CNM.Requires too much Capital and seems to rely on the West Oz penchant for Rugged Individualism being twisted into Colorful character Robber Barons.Anyway CNM is running on getting Government Backing and I don't admire that as a Business Plan.It's got Liquidity all right but it has Too Many Shares On Issue held by small time Momentum Jocks.

So then we get to DYE and the actuals Reality of Boffins running Business of a Limited Requirement for Capital Input and a Tightly Held Register run by NON Show Ponies.

but no time or inclination to expand further.maybe later

cheers resilient good to have you back as a TRUE Challenger.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

ohkoolnutz

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 07:44 am:

I like dug but its wise to read his approach to stocks over time. As he stated he thought CFU would be a contender last year. Dug deserves respect for acknowledging his bad picks. He also has been a DYE supporter since a long time and particularly in the first half of 2008. The price dropped by 50% since then and has only just rebounded. Timing does play a role and recommending a stock twice over a longer time period does not erase the possibility that one might already have a position at a higher unit price from a previous gamble.

I have a position in PEN. PEN has gone from 1.5c to 3.5c recently. I can make myself look like a genius if I omitted the fact that I took the position at 4.8c in 2007 before it ever went to 1.5c.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

resillent1

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 08:59 am:

How bad will it get? - Some might find this link interesting - though most will probably find it a good cure for insomnia.

http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/player_launch.pl?s=rn/bigideas&d=rn/bigidea s/audio&r=bia_29032009_2856.ram&w=bia_29032009_28M.asx&t=29%20March%202009&p=1

The monster Mash - This link should be good for a smile

http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=AU&hl=en-GB&v=28I0JK0byLU

resillent1

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 09:54 am:

A bit of Budget Speculation.

The slowing of revenues through reduced tax intake and an increase in expenditures through higher unemployment benefits interest payments, etc means that the government has a fiscal imbalance. Running up deficits is a debatable solution for the short term – but eventually a sustainable fiscal balance has to be struck.

So what of the status quo is at risk in the search for fiscal balance? Revenue is not going to rise in the near term from growth so that just leaves increased taxes or reduced spending.

Reduced spending? It is a Labour Gov’t , so I suspect token measures at best. Maybe wiping the Baby Bonus; First Home Grant extension; Childcare Rebate.

Increased taxes? High wealth individuals sheltering excessive income under the superannuation structures would have to be a prime target. High incomes of all forms will probably come under increased taxation pressure.

Predominantly, the fiscal imbalance this term is most likely be addressed by running a large deficit but longer term such politically sensitive issues as CGT discount, Negative gearing, increasing broad based consumption tax (GST rate), Middle class welfare etc will all have to be examined.

dug

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 10:05 am:

ohk,
If I'm not aware of "fellow travellers" on my picks,How can I give undertones/sell signals on my Rave Reports?
Look at the Dye thread in Long Term.What replies by others did I get?See how many posts are strung out by me personally having to talk to myself?

My "trick" Okh is that I try to Negate Regret.Meaning I'm able to Favour a share yet not hold a Position ALL the Time.
I buy and sell/trade a Single/Handful of Shares that I've researched as Goers.I miss out on absolute Tops and Bottoms that way but I have some "pride" in getting ON early and OUT not too late.

Now especially I have an illustration in CFU but it's history involving only Swing Trading to get one out of d'Hole.

Long time back,one of the Great Ones mused on how difficult he found it to BUY a share that he previously had Traded.You also can read "Market Wisdom Writers" saying something like Don't chase Losers to you personally,try another one,be FRESH.I consider and considered that by doing the opposite? I had an "Edge".

but I'm out of time and especially can't write more on this to an Ex Market Participant in TA only like I've made as an Assumption about you,ohk.

Toying with Re Entry Ohk?Good on Ya if you are.I remember you musing about being a Landlord yet not Buying a Property only subletting.Geez that showed you had no nouse,hey? about Reality vs What one can come up on paper.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

resillent1

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 10:43 am:

dug wrote on Monday, April 27, 2009 - 11:05 am:
me personally having to talk to myself

Aw come on Dug - I talked to ya and even enjoyed it

Maybe you should talk to Polpak's mate "Jaded" over at the warmpig - Reckon you two would have heaps in common

dug

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 11:11 am:

It's no "secret" that I'm jaded down d'BarBque.I went there while on Suspension here and merely "honed" my Style but kept all d'd stuff as my "Badge" of Character.
Speaking of Warm Pig,this high maths poster came in with this High Analysis of Volume Reading,resilient.I've reprinted d'Gist in Short Term/Trading Rules Thread.I glaze over on such things but you,resil seem to have an Aptitude for such things like Standard Deviations etc so I'm hoping you may run an Interpret for me?

Dye is Bot Running at the Mo still holding d'Gap but bleeding 2 Share Parcels are flickering Bid/Ask.I reckon Dave "invented" Bot/Algorithmic Trading but I have No Proof of this.Latest Info on Algo Trading is that all d'Trade by Programme Boys "diddle" in it.They go off to their Day Job and leave it,d'Bot churning over.
Basic Point is that Bot Trading can no longer be seen as being done Exclusively by BigMoney/Institutional Players ie the Lead,if Any has been "corrupted" by Machine DIYers,computer makes d'Decision Types which IMHO is....
well,wouldn't want to Insult d'Luddite's "enemy".

gotta go.
check out that Equation for me,resil?
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 12:44 pm:

Check out DYE's Course of Sales today to get d'Clue about Bot Trading.It should be acknowledged that I,d'Thug was First on this Site to spot d'Bot/explain/go on Search of d'Maybe Whys it was Happening.

I continue to Want to Share my thoughts on "Developments in New Market Dynamics" but what have I got?
The Nameless One MR NO persisting in -
I've Done it ALL and Keep it a Secret.
A What a Clever Chappie I BE,beyond Guru I'm GOD material POV
as in poverty sheer Paucity in being able to Get Over HIMSELF.

I'm off for d'Arvo.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

resillent1

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 01:07 pm:

Dug

I think the link on the volume stuff is no longer valid.

Tried googling the naked trading stuff but buggered if I found anything on trading!!!! (

)

What are you talking about in your last post - I must have missed something while I've been away cause I don't know who you are referring to as the nameless Mr No - but I take it you don't like them.

dug

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 01:45 pm:

Try Capital C instead of current c in Covring.
We got a DYE Trading Halt,ain't that interesting in a TA Signaller for Topping?
Mr No is in our midst,resil
to Spell it out it's this sites Clown,d'Riddler,who in this very thread came in with some Piffle about News being UnNeccesary.
anyway gotta go Again this time DEFINITELY.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

cat_lady

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 02:20 pm:

dug
capital raising on the cards. explains the run up in price of recent times perhaps?
cat lady

Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

resillent1

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Monday, April 27, 2009 - 07:18 pm:

Dug

RE: The volume paper you wanted interpreted.

Autocorrelation just means there is a degree of similarity between a given time series and a lagged version of itself.

The paper talks about high volume autocorrelation meaning that volumes in the near past are normally similar to today’s volumes.

The findings are that companies that have high institutional ownership have less auto-correlated volume than companies with mainly individual holders. Except the reverse seems to be true at times when new information (particularly inside information) is received.

The real summary:

In the absence of new information, a register dominated by institutions will be more spasmodic than a register dominated by individuals. In the case of many individuals – they tend to cancel each other out providing smooth average volume. Institutions hold large blocks so volume tends to jump depending on whether they are active or not.

The reverse is true when new information comes to hand as institutions will tend to split their transaction over multiple days (trying to hide their hand) causing autocorrelation of volume to rise.

Nothing in there that you wouldn’t already instinctively know. All in all it’s just another academic looking for the wholly grail and hopping to find it within complexity.

Cheers

(Message edited by resillent1 on April 27, 2009)

dug

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 10:27 am:

cat_lady wrote on Monday, April 27, 2009 - 03:20 pm:
capital raising on the cards. explains the run up in price of recent times perhaps?
cat lady

BUT cat lady,I agree you "deserve" 5stars but the term in the Announcement is Halt for Capital MANAGEMENT not mere raising.
SO one can come to a Maybe that the Announcement will not be a Run of d'Mill,probable Negative creepy Placement but a Step,A LEAP of DYE into Black Swan World!!!
Geez cat weren't you a Happy Pollyanna last year?Don't tell me you've been Twisted into a Jaded Negative Nelly!! Swine Flu as an excuse to Dump??Too much Austin Donnelly for YOU me girl!!
Get ready IF ya don't still hold DYE to Buy d'Open after Trad Halt!!

cheers.
ps-resillient thanks for that about Volume.I wasn't sure that my reading was that there was Nothing Between the Lines of that Academic Paper.
Yet it's said that Institutions were "Amazed" at this Paper and Formulas.
back2it.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

polpak

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 11:59 am:

polpak does try acknowledge credits ;-)

Dug wondered about replies by others to his posts, however many of us who read may know little, whether answers or questions, to add to his gems :-)

Concerned about talking to selves ;-)

IC may consider how other forums count Posts and Reads. Often see Posts with few follow-ups yet high Read counts.

With all my long term holdings, I trade them for short term gains- partly as cash to pay my bills, partly to add to my longer term holdings.

What replies by others did I get?See how many posts are strung out by me personally having to talk to myself?

Bot Trading, no objection IF they pay same minimum trade fees as rest of us each time.

With a memory like mine, am lost most of the time.

ohkoolnutz

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 03:21 pm:

dug wrote on Monday, April 27, 2009 - 11:05 am:
Toying with Re Entry Ohk?Good on Ya if you are.I remember you musing about being a Landlord yet not Buying a Property only subletting.Geez that showed you had no nouse,hey? about Reality vs What one can come up on paper.

I enjoy watching stocks since I still have not made up my mind if TA works. I am far from re-entering.

I still sub-let. You can't beat $170/week in rent in comparison to a noose like a long-term mortgage.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

dug

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 03:55 pm:

That's cool nutz but do you really know Who COOL is?Like have you read up on the ACTUAL meaning of Cool?Personally I try to achieve HOT!!
but you're German,hey ohk?Ultimately run as TECHNICIAN extrordinaire.No sense of FUN in d'Mentals,
NO4U Machine Rules,hey?

The IC thread "Does TA really Work" is a bit moribund.Doesn't get posted in for Months.How about you,ohkoolnutz "dazzle" us with ya Findings so far on TA and when it works and when it doesn't?

Personally I'll run "protection" for ya if d'Forces of Ignorance descend but only if you cease'n'disist in posting one line comments of d'Bursting d'Balloon type.

Frankly I think,ohkoolnutz that you've been SHOCKED by how Chaotic the Market is.
Your/no individuals groups' brain is just not Good ENUF,ohk and the FACT is NO ONE's IS or Ever Will Be!!

Do ya WANT/NEED to go on d'Pilgrimage to Mammon?
and if so is TA ALL ya require?
that's d'Eternal Quest.

but yeah Money SAVED is Equal,Exceeds Money Got by Capitalist Tricks.especially if one ain't IN on d'Joke.The lead is Will you still be Sociable enough to share Rented Premises?when ya 40+?

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Thursday, April 30, 2009 - 08:29 am:

captain_chaza wrote on Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 06:17 pm:
Would you agree with me that If Markets Go Up on Good news as they go UP on Bad news
What's the point of reading any News at all?

Surely it then makes sense to say that all Fundamental news gathering is a waste of time

What does this round circle of View,really mean?Good and Bad News can make Markets go UP?
Positive AND Negative News have a EQUALLY Positive Outcome.
Surely that needs to be Qualified.Can't be Taken as a "Must Be True" because of WHO stated it.

Just a typical example of ya Sledging,CC.You have an Agenda that Dismisses Any and All use of FA for What Purpose?As far as I can tell so you can promote your Fine TA skills above ALL others.You want to be,have a NAME as El Supremo Technical Analyst of this site if not d'WHOLE Blessed WORLD!!
With a Forum Agenda,that acknowledges Others only on a Ranking that maintains ALL are d'Captain's Subordinates.In my world,that's Power Junkie,Charles.As an Anarchist my natural enemy.

How about you Apply this "quip" to News regarding the Micro of the Market?What is the effect of Good and Bad News on a Share NOT the Market for Shares.
From your vast experience tell us a Share that got Bad News yet still went up?
Of course,you'd have to have a Clear Example of BAD news.One that was on the balance of Reasonableness considered by most even Some as Valid BAD.

Oh and then,you may have to explain how a Share with BAD TA yet still went UP to complete the circle of Enlightenment of d'FA orientated but we all know,or at least expect,that we'll get NOTHING from you other that some petty,smart alec Sledge beginning with some diminutive,patronising,personal greeting that no doubt ya Mother says is d'Best Thing ya EVER DONE!!

Fellow Forumers-CC aka Chuckles in his MAK thread has announced to me that he wants to Play.If nothing else I'm known for being GAME.
Just like Ned Kelly on the Scaffold-Such is Life or in fancy Southern Patois C'est la Vie!!

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Monday, May 04, 2009 - 12:31 pm:

PawnBroking 101-

This is carried over from my weekend post in Daily Bread about Cash Converters[CCV].

I haven't time today to Fully Explain my point so I'll just do some Basis.

Pawnbroking is covered by TWO bits of Legislation.The Second Hand Dealers Acts [for buying] and various Money Lenders Legislation[for money lending durrrh]

A Pawn Broker can buy outright one's Goods OR use these Goods as Collateral for Loans.They can also just loan,straight Money Lending on the New Basis called Pay Day Lending.

Now outright Buying is a preferred method.Why?because it's a simple Transaction.
Want money?What do you have to Trade?
A diamond ring?OK I'll give you X for it here and now.Take it or Leave it.
And if the "client" takes it?
well they got Money that they don't have to pay back.The Broker doesn't have to store it for 3 months.No the Broker OWNS it by right of Offer and Acceptance and can Sell it for whatever Gain of sell over buy he can take from the Market.

See PawnBroking when they have Transacted on a Taking of Collateral basis requires
a]20% payable on each month for three months Compounded.

b]If the Good is NOT redeemed and the Interest not Paid,the PawnBroker must sell the Good at Auction.

c]Whats more IF the Good sells at such Auction for MORE than the Loan + Interest,there is some Legal Requirement that the Excess is OWED to d'Bleeding DeadBeat Borrower.

Do ya follow?Out of the Kindness of a PawnBrokers Heart,he's helped out the Temporarily In Difficuties "Client" by advancing Money on some Material Possession owned by the Client and Shame the client didn't pay his debt back and by some "Good Fortune" at Auction his "pledged" goods gets more than his or her Debt and still it's thought to be FAIR that the PawnBroker is in d'Business of giving such a DeadBeat more Money!!??!!

Well,can you at least see why PawnBrokers might prefer to Buy Outright on first contact?

Anyway,be assured that ya average PawnBroker knows d'Law and has many Age Old/True Capitalist Ways'n'Means to Battle the Nanny State.

d'Trick is in the required Auction bit of the Legislation.They merely Ring it.No pledge EVER gets more than d'Debt so d'DeadBeat NEVER Wins.

How can that be?Ya're making this up,Dug,surely?

more tomorrow......

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

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Monday, May 04, 2009 - 01:39 pm:

Hi Dug,

I found that explanation very interesting. I had never really been into how the CCV type of business operated and just thought that most (if not all) transactions were of the buy outright variety.

I would imagine that there are many ways of getting around the problem of selling by auction at a price that would not require paying D'deadbeat especially if it was a cash transaction.

Do you have any idea about the proportion of transactions that are not a straight out buy transaction?

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

dug

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 09:35 am:

rdumas wrote on Monday, May 04, 2009 - 01:39 pm:
just thought that most (if not all) transactions were of the buy outright variety

Rudy,I reckon most transactions are Lend for 3 months.
It's all in the Client Mindset and how the PawnBroker "works" with that.

See the client enters with the Desire for a Short Term Loan,they have to put up Collateral and they KNOW that what they paid say $500 for may get loaned on for only say $100.Client then has 3 months to redeem owing say $170 as pay back.Of course client can pay back next week,even next day but I Think they still owe First Month's Interest 20%.

Anyhow,if they're the Decent Poor,caught in circumstance beyond their control,rejected by d'Evil Banks etc etc [be still my bleeding Heart!!]

Anyhow,the client wants their Valuable Worldly Possession back.They don't want to sell it to some Shafty Pawnbroker for a pittance.
It may be the most Valuable Thing they possess or has great sentimental value so they Hock it fully HOPING to be able to redeem in 3 months.

The Pawn Broker hopes they redeem too because basically a PawnBroker wants to Lend money at 20%/month year in year out.He doesn't really want to sit in some shop cluttered up with d'Poorer Classes TAT and Junk!!

Now I reckon that's d'Problem with the Moden Day Pawnbroking Industry.Modern Goods don't hold Value.Price New to Second Hand.Electrical Goods for example are on,what?,3/5 year Obsolesence?What's more over the last say 10 years they've been Dropping New with this year's new CHEAPER than last.

Rudy,Pawnbroking mostly works on the pawning of Small,Relatively High Value Items for collaterising Small,say under $500 Loans.Jewellery,rudy,along with Musical Instruments and Professional Power Tools.
Electrical,White Goods are a "fading" currency down ya local PawnShop especially on an outright sale basis or as reasonable collateral for some "significant" cash injection of say $300 "temporarily".

but I want to today,do some more specifics on Cash Converters International [CCV] to lend some "credence",rudy to Why,Maybe ya EW wave heralds a Crash or at least a Sideways Move and some reasons for my Wouldn't touch 'em with a BargePole despite what some blessed Accountant Star Doctor "analyses"!!

cheers

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 10:18 am:

Hi Dug,

Wow, I had no idea that the loan part of the business was such a large component of the business.

20%/month makes playing the market during volatile times look like a dumb thing to do.

Perhaps you, Ody and me should set ourselves up in business. Ody can provide the lending finance, I can do the marketing and you can contribute your network of 'people in the business'.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

dug

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 10:35 am:

Now I can only do Basic POV on CCV's financials.

I see Franchise Operator in it's Sector "Setting" and know the basic thing is that a company will grow impressive Sales figures mainly due to New Store Openings.

When it has "saturated" the Market,has all the Franchises in place well then it will be running solely on how good it's Business Plan is BUT Profit's will be subject for the Company,Franchisor to their contract with the Franchisee.

Mainly the Company will no longer be getting the UpFront Buy In Cash Flow.So what high profit Service will be provided to Cash Converters Stores by the "parent" Listed Company?Tell me cos I don't know and don't want to open some Annual Report.

How much Market Penetration has CCV left to do?
When will it "mature"?

See I met the PawnBroking Industry in Brisbane in the early 90's.Just when Cash Converters started.The "old time players" who had PawnBrokered for Generations thought that Cash Converters was a complete Joke!!

PawnBroking as advertised on TV as Middle Class and Respectable?
PawnBroking as a Viable Buy ya Self a Job Franchise?

Oh they chuckled.They knew they ran a Cartel.Had those Auctions,had ALL d'KnowHow/Perfect Clients/Ways'n'Means Generationally in d'BAG and some jumped up Yankee Mob could fleece all d'Outsiders they like with Pay Us and We'll make ya a Respectable PawnBroker.

Pitching-"There's MONEY in Muck especially if ya operate out of Bright,Clean Suburban Shop Fronts.Can't afford a McDonalds?Get a Cash Converters instead!!"

Seen many Old Time PawnBrokers closing because Cash Converters came to Town?Seen the equivalent of Regional Grocery Shops closing because of Woolworths Opening?Which is Greater at Penetration?

Cash Converters is merely a Fad IMHO.
I reckon it's Run is Finis[ing].
Only a completely,naive Dill would consider CCV as a "recession buster".One who hasn't hung round Real Life or has very superficial friends and takes very poor Advice.[Not talking you,Ody]

So there's some "normal" stuff on Sector/Company Analysis.Not what they've Made in the Past BUT what are there chances on GROWING if not Maintaining current Cash Flow?
I don't think talk about Society and Credit is much relevance because as far as I know Cash Converters International merely Sells a Business Plan NOT actually RUNS a Business of PawnBroking.

But yes,I may be Well WRONG.I haven't even Read their Annual Report so I'm wide open and eagerly await Enlightenment.

I'll do something more on d'Dark Side.Receiving Stolen Goods,d'Con that is d'Jewellery Trade maybe later.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

eblode

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 10:36 am:

Rudy,

I 'd give you 3 balls to display over the shop but I only have 2.

Eugenio

dug

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 11:34 am:

Oh sorry I didn't put in anything about Pay Day Lending and it's effect on Cash Converters Specifically.

CashConverters is "trying" to get into this,not in competition with PawnBrokers but to widen out into other Fringe Finance "Mobs" Mortgage Brokers etc.

PayDay Lenders do NOT take Goods as Collateral,no they have Shop Fronts,a couple of chairs and a Desk and away they Go.

Yes it is 48%Annual but it still don't mean they lend $99 for a $100 next week redemption.
48%/year is the INTEREST RATE but they can tack any costs they like on.
so it still boils down to contract to Pay Back next week/fortnight $100 and you MAY get something like a $80 loan.
This 20% "extortion" is "sweetened" if you contract to Pay Back say $1000 and you MAY get $850 Cash Loaned.

I haven't been down to my local PayDay Loan shop in my regional town's Main Street to make enquiries but from what I've read that's how it works.

Why does Cash Converters want to "muscle in" on this Operation?They get 20%/Month Legit,Legislated why chase around a measly 48%/year?
Well it's all in Getting Bulk Money Out There "sharking" for ya.
See Pawn Loans are usually well averaged under $500.Mostly because of the poor Second Hand Value of "Stuff".
There's also all this average Client thing to consider but you get No Idea of these Facts by watching Cash Converters Ads!!

Neither did I get much Joy Googling Pay Day Articles.
Top of the List came up with some Social Worker bleating about d'Unjustly Poor could lose their BEDS tonight because of their Debts.
Well,heart wrenching,hey but not so much perhaps if you KNOW that No ONE second hands Matresses.It's a Health Dept Issue.Charities don't take Second Hand Mattresses even for FREE so don't think ya can hock your bought,even last week,Sealy Posturpedic down d'PawnShop!!

Anyway,CashConverters is diddling/fringing Pay Day Lending so they can get more Cash out there.They're not very good REALLY at PawnBroking.

They operate with the very inexperienced and find that the stand alone/long time Operators actually lure their New Market Clientele away from Cash Converters.

Lure them on a Get a Better Deal.Deal with d'REAL.
Client do you really think some CashConverter who is/or aspires to be in Rotary is really gunner Be There For You.Do d'Business the Family Generation Way!!

Anyway,anyone got some Actual Info on what Cash Converters DOES?
All I got is Anecdotal.Hit me with some Confirms and/or Denies.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 11:50 am:

Hi Dug,

I can't help you with the confirms or denies because we don't have one in our area and by the sound of the business model you describe I don't know whether I want to even visit one.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

resillent1

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 11:53 am:

CCV makes 80% of its profit from Finance Operations and the remaining 20% from retail.

With that split I would wonder why anybody would consider it a retailing stock.

Its retailing business is at best average in terms of ROA - but it gives them the access to market for their finance business that has excellent ROA.

I would think of CCV more in terms of a bank. Recession = doubtful debts provisions.

I think their financial business is predatory. There is current legislative uncertainty in the area consumer protection. Longer term either legislation will curtail the financial business ROA or if they get a favourable legislative outcomes they will most likely face increased competition.

The problems that exist in the world today cannot be solved by the level of thinking that created them.
-- Albert Einstein

dug

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 12:18 pm:

Thanks resillient.Can you give me some Gist on this Franchise Angle with CashConverters?
Are they the Lender/Source to the Franchisees who then "broker" it out to the "clients"?
Are Cash Converter Franchisees merely "Bank Clerks"?
or do they have their Own Nest Egg CAPITAL say Half a Mil$$+ riding along with the Cash Converters Franchisors?
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

resillent1

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 12:26 pm:

Dug

Sorry, but don't know and don't care.

The problems that exist in the world today cannot be solved by the level of thinking that created them.
-- Albert Einstein

ody

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 02:05 pm:

CCV

I am glad to see that the ongoing posting about this stock is not occurring on Our Daily Bread, for I must say that I feel the arguments are becoming repetitive and probably would be found such by most readers there.

However, I agree entirely with Resillent in the view that it is wrongheaded to see Cash Converters as just a "retailer", and the comparison with a bank, of sorts, does make some sort of sense, though of course only to a limited extent, as I am sure Resillent would agree.

As for the potential commercial dangers to a shareholder: yes, of course they are there. Then again, they have been there all along. Already in 2001 or so regulations were called for. And this has happened during the centuries. Matters may not be confined to the 48% legislated, and more steps taken. On the other hand, we may rest assured that there will always be pawnshops, and that if they are competent they will make money. This will be so whether or not conditions are imposed. And the most competitive business will be the winner, as it should be.

Some of the discussion here suggests that pawnshops are a recent invention. On the contrary, they have existed for centuries, and often been highly profitable. People may not like them, but they have a clear role to play, as experience shows.

Re the matter of vulnerability: it is not as though we are talking about making an investment for life. When I bought the company, I suggested it was a good buy, and so it has proved - already. What the future holds will become plain, but at the moment it certainly still looks promising. I see no reason whatever for selling the stock. On the contrary, as things stand I think its business will continue to flourish, and that people will continue to invest in it.

I personally do not agree that their business is particularly "predatory", either. One can just as readily argue that about many other businesses. The client wants something, and the business wants to make the maximum amount of money possible. That, unfortunately, is the harsh reality. But I have already discussed these points before, and shall not do so again.

dug

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 02:31 pm:

Ahh don't be like that,resillient.That's discouraging,wounding to my self esteem like.Don't know and Don't Care!!
Why this is independent Analysis of that Top FA Indicator Lincoln's Star Doctor that Millionaires Use,resil.What are you already a Millionaire and don't Need d'Doctor?

Anyway,Lo and Behold I've just found CashConverters is Australian not Yank.At least it's foundered in West Australia so I suppose that counts!!

Their Main Game according to the Brochure is in turning Second Hand Stores into Professional Retail Outlets so there ya go,resil it was you who confirmed they aren't too crash hot whizzbang in Retail,right?

No resillient seems their Main Game is in d'MotherCountry,that's d'UK.
Why resillient CashConverters [CC]has identified that there are Millions of Adults in the UK without Access to Bank Accounts or MainStream Credit Facilities and liddle ol' CC d'upstart colonial is figuring on helping them out.Pretty Noble hey resillient?

Well it gets Better,More Ethical perhaps when you find that CC has linked up with a Charity called Make a Dream Come True.This is for sending Terminally Ill Kiddies to DisneyLand and such.It is NOT the ones that do this you may have heard about like Make A Wish Foundation no this is DREAM not Wish so don't get it confused.
It's a Sounds Like,resillient and other fellow Pilgrims to Mammon.Try and find the appropriate Abe Lincoln Quote that MAY apply for ya "edification".

Anyway,rudy I realise you and Ody have always put Disclaimers on Star Doc.Warned the likes of Eugenio that it is only a Guide and NIX a definite Recommend.

I'm a bit surprised that a Look Behind the How of such CCI figures were achieved is now seemingly ignored.
I'm "concerned" that the Method taught me by my Father,the Orphan who made Good,which was Going to the Actual Outlet/Factory and EYEBALLING operations seems to have been discarded as Old Hat.

I remember awhile back Holy Cow coming out with an AVOID of Flight Centres when it was flying high.His Recomm was AVOID because when ya down the local WestField see how d'Flight Centre Shop has No/Few Customers.He then whacked up a Chart supporting this contention.

Anyway,suppose I am nostalgic for the Old Days but,rudy meeting PawnBrokers,getting d'Gist'n'Drift of THEY,is an Education beyond mere doctoring.

regards.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 02:43 pm:

ody wrote on Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 02:05 pm:
Some of the discussion here suggests that pawnshops are a recent invention

the old crossovers of posts,Ody.
I can't see any discussion of PawnShops being "New" a recent invention.Will you do a Pauline and Please Explain?
While you're at it can you confirm Monte de Piete COULD have a connotation of Mountain of Pity as in a description of PawnBroker Stock?

I'm glad you appreciate that my ramblings haven't "polluted" YOUR Daily Bread Thread.

regards and Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 02:57 pm:

Aaahh Dug,

I'm "concerned" that the Method taught me by my Father,the Orphan who made Good,which was Going to the Actual Outlet/Factory and EYEBALLING operations seems to have been discarded as Old Hat.

It takes all types of individuals to make the world go 'round. Thank God (I'm not being religious here

) we're not all the same. It would be a perfect argument to support euthanasia.

You like digging into the 'news behind the news'. I like delving into patterns. Maybe it's a 'left brain/right brain' thingy.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

ody

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Tuesday, May 05, 2009 - 04:35 pm:

Out of sheer kindness ...

dug, why don't you go to google to find the answers to many of your questions? I suggested as much before.

You'd easily find, even if you go to Wiki alone, the following:

"Both the Italian term monte di pietà and the French term mont de piété translate into English as mount of piety."

Since you seem to have such faith in my ability to answer your questions on language, perhaps I need to stress that "piety" is not the same as "pity".

I don't understand your question about pawnbrokers and history. I don't know when pawnbroking first started, but I should imagine it would well and truly have been established in classical antiquity. There would probably always have been a case for the practice, in one form or other.

I am, as far as the relatively distant past is concerned, only familiar with references to pawnbrokers in English literature c. 1600. They both buy outright and lend many things offered to them. The person who sells or borrows is ultimately always the loser. Indeed, the very reason why the pawnbroker is in business is that he (I don't know whether women were guilty of the practice) can make money this way. The person who sells or loans wants money that instant and cannot normally get it from any other source. Begging, stealing, or prostitution would normally have been about the only alternatives. Obviously the pawnbroker - who, everyone knows, exists to make money on what is sold or lent to him, would ensure that the person who is short of money gets the smallest amount possible. There is nothing new under the sun about this.

Maybe you could direct attention to gambling for a change? Try to find out how many people end up at a pawnbroker because they are addicted to gambling. Then you can blame Tabcorp etc. for tempting them to gamble. Next you might go on to some other form of sin, and the commercial entities promoting or exploiting it. The only thing against all this is that Incredible Charts is not set up to deal with these various matters.

dug

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Wednesday, May 06, 2009 - 10:32 am:

why thank you for d'kindness Ody.Yes indeed the history of PawnBroking goes way back.It was called the sin of Usury still operational in Moslem Fundamental Countries today.
Perhaps that's why it's piety instead of pity?

Thing is that it is,as you have gone into pains to acknowledge,a Dirty Business.
Yes it's chief clients come from Gamblers and Junkies.It could be seen as the Venue for maintaining the Thieving Culture inherent in these human activities ie Eliminate Receivers and you take out a Dozen or more HouseBreakers but us sophisticated men of d'World know you can't do that,hey Ody?

My point about Cash Converters is that it is a Listed Company in a "shady" business.It's floating on it's Respectable but mainly Profitable Extremely.
Witness Rudy hearing how much money is in PawnBroking and "jokingly" saying how about we all get in on it.

I reckon that IF/When any Negative Bad Publicity breaks about Cash Converters say one of their Franchisors is Caught receiving that the Whole Show will be Damaged.
Cash Converters specifically mentioned in a "scandal",not just some Anonymous PawnBroker but this particular Listed Company.You probably don't agree,Ody.That'd just be some minor hiccup,a mere PR paper over job,hey?

Anyway,I covered some basic Investing Problems with Franchise Selling Listed Companies.I could tell you something about Women Involvement in PawnBroking.Basically it's in the Jewellery,a Main Stay of PawnBroking thru the Centuries but I get the feeling you just don't want to know.

So,thanks again for d'Kindness.Feel Free to go back reminding us on How You got out of the Market in November 2007 and why you're a Professor.

cheerybye.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

eblode

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Wednesday, May 06, 2009 - 11:30 am:

Dug,
I have often wodered if you are reel or jus the figment of some riters imagination out there lurking in cyberland. Beneath that "hill billy" twang lies a very shrewd trader who wonderfully masks himself by playing the village idiot with all of us and enjoying himself no end. I'm wise to you Dug and frankly get a kik out of yur disgize to d'members of d'club.

ugenio

dug

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Saturday, May 09, 2009 - 12:56 pm:

Thanks for that,eblode.At least I see now that Someone,A Long Term Member is "In/Up on my Game".Pity about your poor attempt to do d'mimmick of my spelling etc but you're probably too Old School to get d'Joke.

Anyway,Eugenio I know you're a Player,A Perpetrator not only a mere punter/sheep/herd/mobster.
So my current Tip/Share for your consideration is Cape Lambert.
It's a pity our mate,rederob ain't around to "guide" us,eblode.I know he met you once in your Surfers Paradise Penthouse.He's the only one who has actually eyeballed JR,too.

Anyway,remember his Great Materials Shares Insight was to ONLY BUY UNHedged Producers.You thus took in Kitco Price SPOT moves as hitting these Companies Bottom Lines Directly and Immediately and thus had a really Sweet Dissector of ALL the NonBlue Chip Up'n'Comers ie StarStocks months/YEARS before they hit d'LIST.

Now,I've only done preliminary,completely basic blinking/scim reading at Cape Lambert but have found so far that Cape Lambert thru it's recent TakeOver of CopperCo has HEDGED COPPER Positions BUT the Hedging is against LOW COST PRODUCTION ie Guaranteed Profits from Current Production.

Now,eblode I doubt rudy'n'ody are gunner be able to find a good Doctor Rating for Cape Lambert.I ain't even really sure of it's ASX Code!!
but,here's a Chart.On first glance,Eugenio I know you see this as an Opportunity to GO not an amateur/punter chart of d'One dat got Away.

I'm going to do a Separate Dedicated Thread for CFE up in Short Term Section thread,Eugenio.Hope you do d'Lurk up there.

regards,
jr

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rdumas

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Saturday, May 09, 2009 - 02:12 pm:

Hi Dug,

You are right about Stock Doctor and Cape Lamberts health rating. It has a "marginal" health rating. It has made positive earnings once since it started drawing breath and that was in it's June 2008 annual report.

In spite of this the average investor returns for the last 5yrs/3yrs and 1 year are 21.69%, 31.14% and 52.79% respectively.

From a TA perspective it certainly looks like there's some more upside left but looking at its long term chart, you would have to like bungy jumping to be able to stick with it. Certainly not for the faint hearted.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

dug

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Saturday, May 09, 2009 - 03:06 pm:

rudy,you did some chart work this week doing EW theory to give indication of Long Targets for the Future.
Would you do that for my Short Term Thread CFE?

Cape Lambert,IMO,is an Emerger.It hasn't such a solid Business History that can be used in a long term 10yearish chart like yours above.Such charts,to me are only useful to say BHP/RIO watchers and I very much doubt such "types" are going to be got Interested in CFE especially my "reading" of it.

Anyway,would you DO the chart style I mentioned,up in Short Term?In ya own time and however you want to do it.Your Charts,rudy,are an Education to me.

regards.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.