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Thread     Last Poster Posts Pages Last Post Archive through August 14, 2004 nightstalker 25  1  14-Aug-04  06:55 am Archive through July 29, 2004 gjees 25  1  29-Jul-04  10:20 pm Archive through July 26, 2004 shawky 25  1  26-Jul-04  08:48 pm Archive through July 19, 2004 hilarius 25  1  19-Jul-04  09:09 pm Archive through July 10, 2004 hilarius 25  1  10-Jul-04  06:19 pm Archive through July 06, 2004 shubh_labh 25  1  06-Jul-04  08:19 pm Archive through July 04, 2004 greywolf 25  1  04-Jul-04  09:47 pm Archive through July 03, 2004 hilarius 25  1  03-Jul-04  07:18 pm Archive through July 01, 2004 gohard 25  1  01-Jul-04  10:41 am Archive through June 28, 2004 shawky 25  1  28-Jun-04  07:18 pm Archive through June 25, 2004 nightstalker 25  1  25-Jun-04  10:45 am   Closed: New threads not accepted on this page

Author Message  rederob Member Username: rederob Post Number: 271 Registered: 10-2002 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, August 14, 2004 - 07:20 am:     Indeed a shocker shubh labh, but do you really think it will be better next week? Bringing up the rear I should be circumspect with comments. But I chose stocks that were going to (hopefully) mature in price as this experiment draws to a close. I had another look at my choices before posting to see how wide of the mark I am. Have to say that I would today make the same choices (mistakes!). I know there are others that have chosen metal and oil stocks that are doing much better, and my view is that they will do significantly better in several months time. Being somewhat contrarian I do not often share commonheld market positions, which is exactly why my group of 10 has no short term hope of improving - in fact some of them have yet to achieve commercial viability. My view of the broader equities market is that it will turn down with only a few sectors, and a few companies within those sectors, performing decently. This experiment encapsulates my medium term view so if I am wrong I can sleep soundly knowing my position in the hall of infamy cannot slide further. Good trading.  gohard Member Username: gohard Post Number: 151 Registered: 05-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, August 14, 2004 - 12:20 pm:     Hey Shawky Another great week As indicated in my earlier post i was in trouble with ASX and TEL this followed up with FXJ and IPG also hitting the stops Looking at the close on Friday i have chosen the following replacements if there is a problem re numbers being able to be replaced i will adjust my decision if you can advise me thanks. Sell ASX Tuesday 10th--15.43 Buy BLD Friday 13th--7.24-S/L--2.5*ATR =.121 =.30 = 6.94 Sell FXJ Tuesday 10th--3.76 Buy ANN Friday 13th--8.38-S/L--""""""" =.136 =.34 = 8.04 Sell IPG Thursday 12th--1.96 Buy MAY Friday 13th--3.81-S/L--""""""" =.115 =.29 = 3.52 Sell TEl Tuesday 10th--5.54 Buy PBL Friday 13th--13.60-S/L--"""""" =.20 =.50 = 13.10 Have a great weekend Go The Mighty Broncos Cheers G Subscribe for only $12 (USD) per month  hutcho Member Username: hutcho Post Number: 417 Registered: 03-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, August 14, 2004 - 02:37 pm:     It has been an interesting experiment and you can see the Style of Traders we all are. No coincidence that Nightstalker and myself have been very close together as our Investment Styles are very similar, combining F/A with T/A (ala Jim Berg). I'm that slack I can't even remember my Portfolio, so I haven't exercised any stops and this has kept me in good stead (CTX being a prime example.) Rederob: Maybe you are looking at the Charts Upside Down when you make your selections !!!! (Sorry ;-) ) Having fun. Hutcho  shawky Member Username: shawky Post Number: 353 Registered: 11-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, August 14, 2004 - 02:51 pm:     Gohard Orders duly entered and your corrected portfolio value is up from $102k to $103k minus my commission. Hutcho, your stocks and buy prices are: Date Player Stock B/S Qty Price 25-Jun 5 GTP Buy 3,521 2.84 25-Jun 5 TSE Buy 2,020 4.95 25-Jun 5 CDO Buy 1,965 5.09 25-Jun 5 UGL Buy 1,938 5.16 25-Jun 5 TEL Buy 1,887 5.3 25-Jun 5 RHC Buy 1,876 5.33 25-Jun 5 BBG Buy 1,195 8.37 25-Jun 5 GUD Buy 1,156 8.65 25-Jun 5 TOL Buy 928 10.78 25-Jun 5 WPL Buy 583 17.15 Rederob, long term you may surprise. regards Shawky  new2waix Member Username: new2waix Post Number: 1109 Registered: 10-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, August 14, 2004 - 02:55 pm:     Hey Shawky, Is it possible for you to post the current holdings of each candidate? If you could also include the % gain/loss of each stock that would be handy as well! Thanks, n2w ..  rederob Member Username: rederob Post Number: 273 Registered: 10-2002 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, August 14, 2004 - 03:55 pm:     Hutcho Thanks for the chart tip. Apparently all those squiggly lines mean something and there is a particular way to observe them - now you tell me!!!. Shawky, I'm surprised most days by what the market does. So if I'm better placed in 6 months that will be a pleasant surprise. Seriously, there are some great commentaries in this thread on why certain selections have been made. For sheer strength of character in running with a narrow sector for all the right reasons, including massive risk, I take my hat off to marsupial. I note that hilarius is away doing Mother Superior's bidding and wish him safe travels. Has he been warned about the surgery that is performed on newcomers as they cross the border into the sunshine State?  hutcho Member Username: hutcho Post Number: 418 Registered: 03-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, August 14, 2004 - 06:16 pm:     Hi Guys TOL @ $10.78 !!!! (UGH) If I could drop TOL for LNN (both "at Market, On Opening" on Monday) and drop TSE for UGL (at Close on Friday) (UGL announces on Monday !!!!) Hutcho  shubh_labh Member Username: shubh_labh Post Number: 59 Registered: 06-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, August 14, 2004 - 06:33 pm:     Redrob, regards. Six months are still long way to go. All you need is just couple of stocks to start NE trend. That's all it really takes to make up for small losses in the rest. I must salute you for your courage. Please don't be offended.... do call me a coward for I'll never dare put my entire capital in to sink or swim stocks you have picked. Here is your selection: BSO, CMQ, DIO, KCN, LUM, MMN, MRE, OEC, OXR and SMY. Pl do not misunderstand my comments for your picks are very promising. Just that, I have lost too much in promising stories and announcements of cbd, sie, mul, lum, aft and such others to attempt again. I expect my portfolio to slide once market goes in to bullish trend and will most probably end up with least gain among the group. At the moment, I am surprised to find my selections holding well considering my first priority tends to be capital protection and modest increase of no more than 25-30% a year. Here to learn. Please do not consider my mention of any stocks to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn and that's all I am doing...... learning. Only serious advice I can offer is PLEASE be careful, do your own research AND consult qualified experts before buying or selling stocks. Never forget: its your hard earned money.  nightstalker Member Username: nightstalker Post Number: 367 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, August 14, 2004 - 07:23 pm:     Hutcho - you were certainly right in saying you and I have similar strategies! I got out of TOL a couple of weeks ago, and I hold LNN and I'm back into UGL, although I won't count it into my group of 10 for this exercise. Couple of others that seem to be doing nice things for me at the moment, although I think neither is on my list of 10, are BSL and UTB. And Rederob - I've been sitting on MMN in my bottom drawer for many months now, so you're not alone. Silver price is holding well above $US6 an ounce, MMN have upgraded the reserves they are sitting on, and it's only a matter of time once the mine is finished and producing before these bottom-drawer stocks become top drawer. I seriously think MMN wil be $1 shares at least - but not for some time yet. What an interesting exercise this is, from so many different aspects. Best wishes, NightStalker - still scrambling up the steep part of the learning curve  rederob Member Username: rederob Post Number: 274 Registered: 10-2002 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Sunday, August 15, 2004 - 12:07 am:     Shubh labh Dead right, so I only have about 25% of my personal portfolio actually invested in them. But in real life I did add into LUM at 16.5cents last week and CMQ at 3.30 - sheer madness maybe! Nightstalker, that MMN is close to busting north again. I am an unashamed gold bull that thinks silver is a better investment, but there are no other pure silver plays in OZ. Might have to bite the bullet and buy into BHP again if silver ever cracks US$10/oz - BHPs Cannington project in Qld is in the top few silver mines in the world. Indeed a great exercise and the next 6 months might surprise all of us - can anyone see Telstra at $7?  shawky Member Username: shawky Post Number: 355 Registered: 11-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, August 16, 2004 - 01:57 pm:     Hutcho Just post the trades in the format requested above and I'll make the appropriate changes. New2 - I've been snowed under with other work, so wont be spending much time this week producing reports for the Hall Of Fame. 1 Bandicoot AGY AXM IGO NST RMS SRI TGD TRO TYC URL 2 Encephalon CBH CRD GGL GTP HWE NDC PEM SCE SGW SSX 3 Gohard ALN ANN BLD BSL CLH CXP FCL MAY ORI PBL 4 Greywolf ALL AMP AWE BSL CCL LNN OSH RDF SLM SMS 5 Hutcho BBG CDO GTP GUD RHC TEL TOL TSE UGL WPL 6 Ingot54 CCL CEP CLH FXJ GAN HLY ILU ION NCM OST 7 Josl ALN BSL HDR LNN LOK MTT SFC TAA TMO WMR 8 Koan BKM CAI EXS FLK IBA LEG MME MUR PSP SYG 9 Maligas AMP AXA GOG ILU KRS MOS NDC OSH TAW VCR 10 Marsupial AWE HDR IGO NXS OEX OXR PNA RNG RSN WPL 11 Mosaic AWE ERG HDR HZN MOS ROC TAP VOY 12 New2waix CDO COF FAN FWD GNS JBM KRS MXI PCG SDG 13 Nightstalker BSL CTX GUD HPX MAP PMP RDF TEL TEN UTB 14 Peterloh AMP BPC CPU HHG IAG MIA OST PMP SRP TWR 15 Rebyte AGL AMP BSL CTX LHG OST QAN SPC TLS WPL 16 Shawky ALL APN BIL BPC LNN MAP OSH PMM RIN 17 Shubh Lahb ASL GGL HDR HLY MXL QBE RDF RPC TOL UGL 18 Weinstein Group ALL BIL CBA CCL CSL ORG SHL TAB WFT WPL 19 Lady Luck AGL ANN BSL LNN ORI OSH PBL RIN TAP WAN 20 All Ordinaries XAO 21 Gjees AWE AYO BSL GCL GGL ION OXR PSP TIM 22 Archer ARU DKN EPR MAR MMN QGC SFR TGD TRO URL 23 Rederob BSO CMQ DIO KCN LUM MMN MRE OEC OXR SMY Attached is a spreadsheet with full stock performance to date: Wost performer SGW Best performer IBA hall of fame stocks 0816.xls (29.7 k) regards Shawky  nightstalker Member Username: nightstalker Post Number: 377 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, August 16, 2004 - 02:40 pm:     Shawky: Would be obliged if you could make the following adjustment to my little lot: CTX - Sold 9.10 MAP - sold 2.16 TWR - bought 1.81 LNN - bought 7.00 Mucho gracias mate (Message edited by nightstalker on August 16, 2004) Best wishes, NightStalker - still scrambling up the steep part of the learning curve  kez Member Username: kez Post Number: 8 Registered: 07-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, August 16, 2004 - 09:29 pm:     Hi all Been following this with interest. Am I right in my belief that the best performer so far - Koan, has picked his stocks at random? I think I'll go find a blindfold and play pin the tail on the share chart! That really is share picking system in less than 10 minutes a week. Kez  shubh_labh Member Username: shubh_labh Post Number: 66 Registered: 06-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 17, 2004 - 09:58 am:     kez, regards. Yes, you are right in your belief. Koan did mention having picked stocks at random, outperforming the market, now for weeks in a row. Cannot be co-incidence. Perhaps LUCK? I want to buy Koan's random selection system or subscribe to KOANS' DAILY REPORT. Please do not consider my mention of any stocks to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn.  gohard Member Username: gohard Post Number: 153 Registered: 05-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 17, 2004 - 10:22 am:     Morning Shawky Thanks for your spreadsheet information interesting to say the least . Please note my stops have been hit on CLH at $1.50 Monday 16/8/4 i will inform you on the close Friday of my new choice the rot continues but my stops are working accordingly. Cheers G  hilarius Member Username: hilarius Post Number: 320 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 17, 2004 - 04:26 pm:     Hello Rederob Just back from exploratory monastery search north of the border. After breakfast under blue Coolangatta skies both Mother Superior and self were struck with severe gastric problems Strongly suspect a sprinkling of cockroach salt to deter new arrivals ;) However we have resolved to forgive whatever bug trespassed against us, so that we may be forgiven our trespass into the Northern holy land We planted our cross in the sacred soil of Queensland and declared the foundation of a new cellar for the brothers from near and far ... Back home in roach infested NSW we are gathering our belongings for the final northward assault with reinforcements across the Tweed Stay tuned for news of our Northern Crusade Trading halt declared by the friars apart from ABC, ALH, AWC, CAA and CNA Mother Superior still lovingly tending her Bs and Ws ... BHP, BSL, WPL and WYL Hilarius I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities  nightstalker Member Username: nightstalker Post Number: 387 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 17, 2004 - 05:43 pm:     Bro Hilarius - drop me an email when you make the move - you have the address Will try to arrange a welcome to Queensland get-together, perhaps along with Hutcho and a few of the other regulars in here who live under our sunny skies. Best wishes, NightStalker - still scrambling up the steep part of the learning curve  rederob Member Username: rederob Post Number: 277 Registered: 10-2002 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 17, 2004 - 05:55 pm:     Bro hilarius You may have heard that our maroon-cloaked monastic order has blessed copious quantities of holy waters for the cellars of new arrivals to ward off evil spirits. Mother Superior should be pleased when finally settled in this land of Queens; however, don't forget to bring your own batteries. Shawky is doing a sterling job, tho finding your cross too heavy to bear. I have had pearls of wisdom strewn in front of me and believe that new waters may be charted in 6 months time. The miracles of modern communication are truly amazing.  hilarius Member Username: hilarius Post Number: 321 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 17, 2004 - 10:56 pm:     Thanks Guys Will bring enough candles to light the way to the cellar And to study illuminated scrolls of stock prices Energex be warned Hilarius (worried about attaching pedal power to the monastery computer) I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities  shawky Member Username: shawky Post Number: 359 Registered: 11-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, August 23, 2004 - 10:51 pm:     The last couple of weeks might have been a bit rough for some but I think the results to Friday demonstrate that carefully picked stocks tend to survive most storms. Whilst many portfolio values are below their peaks I'm sure they will improve over time. I have a sneaky feeling that some portfolios are going to show big improvements over the next couple of weeks (touch wood). I added OST as his 10th stock on Friday. It was a toss up between OST, HHG, ION, CTX, HDR, MAY, WMR, TAP, TCL and FKP. OST looked like the safest of the group with a steady trend and healthy channel slope. ALL is reporting tomorrow, OSH on Wednesday so I might be in trouble. TAP would be my contender to replace OSH should it fail miserably. regards Shawky  nightstalker Member Username: nightstalker Post Number: 401 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 24, 2004 - 06:53 am:     Shawky - as discussed. Please amend my little list as follows: PMP stopped out at 1.72 TEL stopped out at 5.48 Please replace with: RCD bought at 4.35 on Friday 20/8/04 FLX bought at 0.19 on Friday 20/8/04 Thanks mate . -- Best wishes, NightStalker "The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"  shubh_labh Member Username: shubh_labh Post Number: 76 Registered: 06-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 24, 2004 - 08:05 am:     rederob regards. One of your portfolio stocks MRE has just been recommended "buy" by a report I subscribe to. Here is partial copy paste: Minara Resources (formerly Anaconda Nickel Limited) owns and operates the world-class Murrin Murrin nickel cobalt joint venture project (60% Minara, 40% Glencore International). Murrin Murrin is a world-class hydrometallurgical project. Here is a recent statement form the managing Director Peter Johnston. “We’ve just completed a very successful year of consolidation. We changed the name of the company and undertook a share consolidation in November. We facilitated the exit of a major shareholder from our register, MatlinPatterson, in February which improved our liquidity and broadened our shareholder base with a major influx of institutional shareholders. We received a successful settlement to the Fluor Corporation litigation after around five years of legal proceedings. Our joint venture (MRE 60%) was awarded $155 million in damages for the Phase II claim and that completes all outstanding legal issues. We finished the financial year in a strong financial position with zero debt, strong cashflow and we are completely unhedged for both nickel and currency at a time of very strong nickel prices. Naturally, we are reasonably happy with the progress over the year, especially the financial position. The one challenge that remains is lifting production at Murrin Murrin to its nameplate capacity and maintaining production at that level” Please do not consider my mention of any stocks to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn.  shubh_labh Member Username: shubh_labh Post Number: 77 Registered: 06-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 24, 2004 - 08:07 am:     Shawky regards and thanks for your efforts. Please do not consider my mention of any stocks to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn.  koan Member Username: koan Post Number: 80 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 24, 2004 - 09:38 am:     Hello, I'd just like to reiterate that my selection of stocks was indeed chosen entirely at random... I had a random number generator pick numbers between 1 and 1536 (I think, which was the number of ASX three letter stock codes at the time). Of the first 10 selected, I rejected one because it had not traded in weeks, and rolled again for another. No other criteria was used. This is for those less willing to accept that the random selection is out performing the selections that had more thought put into them. In reality, my group aren't performing particularly well over the past few weeks, they got ahead initially through a surge in a penny dreadful paying out, and since then have dipped and then pretty much flatlined. As I suspect many of the other groups have aswell. But this isn't trading. We still have the six months to wait out, but a lot of trading systems would have a time stop as well as a price stop. Selling out because there has been little movement over time. I wonder how many of the other Group-of-10 portfolio managers would have held for this long on the entire 10 (barring stop loss)? This is an experiment, and if at the end the conclusion is that holding stocks for an arbitrary timeframe offers no benefit, then the experiment will be as much as a success as if it shows that careful selection means you can indeed hold and ignore for half a year. koan This sig may be edited for clarity  shawky Member Username: shawky Post Number: 360 Registered: 11-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 24, 2004 - 09:06 pm:     Nightstalker Trades duly entered, but I would prefer that you specify a date for the stops. I entered them as 20 Aug. ALL and MAP gave my portfolio I nice push along today. OSH is still a concern but tomorrow will tell. Top/Bottom 10 performers to date have been: Up > 25% IBA COF MUR RSN RPC SRI ALL GCL RNG EPR ERG(short) Down > 25% SGW LOK CMQ AXM There are 98 stocks outperforming XJO and 51 underperforming (all -ve as is XJO - down 1%). This includes current holdings only so I am a bit concerned that traders are holding stocks with greater than 25% losses. Long term trade or not, I would like to hear your opinions on why one should hold a stock through a down turn of 28-50%. I believe I have graduated from 1st year to 2nd year apprentice trader for I cut my losses, though nobody has provided me with a certificate of authenticity . Am I missing something? Koan I would be pleased if you were to manage your random stock list. May I suggest setting some sort of long term stop (say 12-15%) and then picking a replacement at random. I too have a time based stop. For this exercise and on my long term trading strategy a stock must be break even within about 10 weeks else it is replaced. In practice the stocks get culled well before (when I abide by my rules - which unfortunately still get broken on occasion to the detriment of my cash balance). Further, when I do a full chart review the worst stocks are subject to the axe if their are good replacements available. i.e. every 3 months. In practice, my tighter time/price stops weed them out automatically. regards Shawky  rederob Member Username: rederob Post Number: 293 Registered: 10-2002 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 24, 2004 - 10:22 pm:     shawky Regarding holding 25%+ losses. Of the above I can only comment in regard to CMQ . CMQ has yet to earn a dollar so is clearly speculative. While it may not seem to make sense, the interesting point about the stock is this: Chemeq has gone back to the market for more cash to expand its production capacity, even though it has not locked in contracts or produced anything to date (that satisfies any commercial order). There are two conclusions: The first is that the company is nuts and is desperate to go broke quickly - a gold medal for heroic failure in the basis of greatest stupidity. The second is that the company has reasonable expectation of firm orders and must ramp production urgently to meet anticipated demand. The first does not make sense, and the second is consistent with the company's spin. Let's assume the worst case scenario: CMQ has intellectual property rights and patents to unique biochemical products that would still be worth a few pennies to its present competitors - either to not produce the drug at all, or as a full replacement of their own biochemical products - remember we are talking about billion dollar markets here. The land and buildings CMQ has are also worth a few dollars, so some value remains. In a better case scenario CMQ gets some orders, and follow up orders, and begins to realise its potential - its price/chart action will follow Cochlear's early production days. I regard all specs as a gamble - beware and be aware of the odds.  nightstalker Member Username: nightstalker Post Number: 405 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Tuesday, August 24, 2004 - 10:45 pm:     Sorry Shawky - yes - 20th Aug was the date I got stopped out of those two. I'll try to remember the format in future... <slaps forehead> ;) . (Message edited by nightstalker on August 24, 2004) -- Best wishes, NightStalker "The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"  marsupial Member Username: marsupial Post Number: 23 Registered: 01-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Wednesday, August 25, 2004 - 10:03 pm:     Two of mine have gone under water somewhat. PNA because they went to market to raise additional 40% of present market cap. I knew this would happen when I "bought" them. I also bought them at much higher price slightly prior to comp start in real life - why I didn't sell when I new a capital raising was due is beyond me - very careless. Still confided of major growth by end year. Second holding was spec oiler that has just had a duster. Still has two wells to go in this drilling program. Statistically almost "certain" to hit with one of these, with 5x stock price gain. That my theory anyway. Very comfortable holding all my ten. Don't see any need to sell any this side of Xmas. Don't follow my lead. I'm an experienced market participant with a special focus on only resource stocks and a high risk tolerance.  shawky Member Username: shawky Post Number: 365 Registered: 11-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Friday, August 27, 2004 - 09:34 pm:     Evening all I have created a new thread in the ASX Long Term Topic where it is more appropriate. This weeks chart is posted there. http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/316907/334429.html regards Shawky (Message edited by robin on April 06, 2007)

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