Archive through June 25, 2004

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hilarius

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Post Number: 153
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 01:41 am:

Hello Forum

It takes a lot of courage to nominate 10 stocks as Peterloh has done and to see them succeed or fail in a forum such as this

Peterloh chose these, which have risen 4.5% since 30th April (I've used a statistical median of their respective price changes) :-

AMP
HHG
IAG
CPU
MIA
SRP
OST
PMP
TWR

It will be extremely interesting to see how they perform and I am sure it would be only fair to allow for changes to the list as circumstances require it, and if Peterloh wishes.

The Weinstein "performers" from November to May rose by 5.2% from April onwards so Peterloh's group is doing well to be close on their heels and it will certainly be good to see how bioth groups go from here.

The Weinstein Group's 10 Stage 2s from the ASX100 were :-

ALL
CSL
TAB
SHL
ORG
WFT
BIL
WPL
CCL
CBA

This is not a competition to see who does best ... what will be most interesting from here is to see which winning stocks emerge in each group

I will attempt to monitor and advise the progress of the individual stocks

Does anyone else have the confidence and courage, demonstrated by Peterloh, to nominate a group of 10 possible stocks of interest?

As with all Forum comments these selections are not to be taken as investment advice ... but rather as stocks of interest for further research and monitoring. Everyone has different needs and time frames ... and should do their own due diligence.

It would be helpful if others could post charts and comments for some of the above listed stocks ... or offer their own "10 stocks to research and watch"

I will try to add charts for some of the above stocks progressively. My personal time frame is to look for stocks to hold for 3 to 6 months if a good trend continues

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 154
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 02:24 am:

Oops ... typing error ... my brain was fading at a late hour of the night :-

Please add BPC to Peterloh's list

Hilarius

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I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 430
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 10:49 am:

Hi Hilarius,

MIA has been taken over by the DCA group. Does it mean that DCV automatically replaces it?

OST is nearing the top of the trending channel , SGW will be the replacement because of the recent retracement.

Cheers,

Peterloh

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 431
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 10:55 am:

Should be DVC instead of DCV. MY apologies, its infectious.

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 155
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 11:17 am:

Hello Peter

Here is the weekly chart of DVC

It looks like a strong Stage 2 to me despite the interruption last year

The MACD is giving a sell signal but the preceding MACD down turn was not as severe as the one before it

Also someone in the forum told me earlier this year that negative MACD signals in an uptrend are not as strong as in a downtrend ... but I'm not sure whether this has been back tested and proven

The buy/sell signals on the chart are computer generated

At this stage I guess one needs to take a view about the potential of the whole DVC group (including MIA) compared to other similar opportunities in the same sector

Unfortunately I don't know a lot about DVC but you have stimulated my interest to research its prospects

With Best Wishes

Hilarius
dvc

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

new2waix

Member

Post Number: 912
Registered: 10-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 11:44 am:

Its possible it's already been mentioned, but Peterloh, could you tell us your selection criteria for your list of 10 stocks?

Fundamentals, technical or both? What signals were you looking for?

Thanks :-)

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 432
Registered: 03-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 03:00 pm:

Hi N2W,

Basically I work on fundamentals, recovery stock and a good story. I am not that concern about ratios but the potential.Profitability and cash flow is a must.

AMP basically a very good business, like Land Lease,NAB TLS they wasted their money overseas. Back to the land of reality these are cash cows.Cost control.Starting from a very low base, if any party wants to take it over they will have to do it now or one can never sight the rear of it.

TWR and HHG , injection of capital to meet the statutory requirement of APRA, now with equity recovering and capital restructure the balance sheet looks healthier. Again in good business fund management, cost control and come off a really low base.Likely take over target in the near future.(incredibe isn't it every year one of my 10 selections have been taken over.)

IAG a good business and very good capital management. It has the highest PE ratio of the leading insurers.Largest insurance business in Australia.

CPU registry business. Has form alliance globally. Pick up in equity market will increase activity.

PMP a recovery stock will improve further and new contracts coming in.

SRP restructure marketing strategy, higher margins and cost control. Strength of Aussie weakening does help.

MIA good management and second biggest in diagostic imagery.New market and good cost control.DVC will definitely benefit by becoming the biggest in the world in this business.

OST, what can I say when I rode the building material boom with it.

BPC good cost control, management, however big debts but under control.

Commonality:
OST share price has treble in the last 3 years, whilst IAG,PMP,CPU has double in the last year.

This year star is lightly to be AMP, HHG,TWR,SRP,DVC,BPC because they are only starting their run.

All the selections are leaders in their field and had good records in the past but gone astray for various reasons. Bringing them back to the fore will enable them to get back in their old ways making good profit.

On the technical aspect I only look for NE up trending equities and not shares moving sideways in a range.

I am sure the majority will meet Weinstein criteria on the weekly chart.

Please note, when a cyclical stock recover, they dont do it for a single year, they will last a few years.Thus I am thinking aloud. Please do not take it as a buy ,hold or sell recommendation.It is only a little secret that I have which I am sharing with you.I am a long term investor and I can see certain similarity with the Weinstein's method.

Best Wishes,

Peterloh

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 159
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 03:17 pm:

Hi New2

It looks as though Peter ... who is a very busy professional ... has yet to see our latest messages

I hope he will still see yours if I now reply to him here on DVC (DCA Group Limited)

It emerges that they are involved in :-

(a) Eldercare ... residential care for the elderly
(b) Medical Imaging

Both these should benefit from an aging population ... and, if Peter Costello is successful with his copulate and populate campaign, there will be enough people to help support those of us looking for homes for the bewildered

The following earnings estimates are provided by a panel of analysts at the Yahoo site

Year Earnings Price
Jun-02 0.1077 1.90
Jun-03 0.1120 2.15
Jun-04 0.1240 Consensus Estimate 2.63 (24th June)
Jun-05 0.1480 Consensus Estimate

Given that the 2002 and 2003 earnings favourably surprised analysts by 15.81% and 14.4% according to the Yahoo Research page, a rising PER (subject to dilution through share issues) seems a reasonable possibility

Two analysts have downgraded their Strong Buy recommendations, with 4 now saying "Moderate Buy" and 2 saying "Hold"

The stock is currently retracing.

The Annual Report and Board composition are interesting, and these can be googled and viewed on the company's web-site.

Currently market depth has more sellers than buyers, but I am interested to watch for a possible favourable bounce in the price as the market absorbs the effects of acquiring MIA and a share placement at $2.60

Hoping this helps a little, Peter, and others interested ... the above data and more are publicly available at Yahoo and the company's web-site

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 160
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 03:19 pm:

Hi Peter

You were too quick for me ... you posted while I was writing mine on DVC

Hope the DVC chart and message are useful

I agree that the MIA buy makes DVC stronger ... but I am not sure whether the earnings per share forecasts at Yahoo take into account the recent share placement

Either way the chart looks positive if there is a bounce off support, and cash flow should be stronger which is what I think you are looking for

Hopefully earnings per share will continue their upward trend after allowing for the effect of the placement dilution

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

(Message edited by Hilarius on June 24, 2004)

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 433
Registered: 03-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 05:42 pm:

Hilarius,

My apologies as I am having meetings away from my desk several times a day attending meetings.

Thank you for the information about DVC. The reason for the weakness in price is due to the acquisition of MIA and the placement of new shares. The acquisition is cash flow positive.

My friend who bought 200,000 of MIA at 0.77 posted me this question. Is it better to sell out now at 0,97 and buy DVC at 2.64 or take up DVC offer of .408 in cash .225 DVC shares and .017 fully franked dividends? Assuming DVC also has 3c fully franked dividend at 2.64.

I am not good at mathematics but hope someone in the Forum can help me out on this.I am desperate for some one to help me out on this. N2W , you are good at maths?

with Best Wishes,

Peterloh

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 434
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 05:45 pm:

please ignore "attending meetings" in the first sentence

bandicoot02

Member

Post Number: 3
Registered: 03-2004

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Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 07:45 pm:

heres my 10 stock picks, all small explorers so fairly risky. all been sold down heavily with pretax loss selling & stuff.

RMS 7c gold nickle explorer m/c 3.1m
NST 16.5c gold and others, was 10c a few weeks ago.
AGY 12c gold diamonds
TRO 18c mostly silver
SRI 10c mostly gold
URL 13c copper
TGD 12.5 gold
AXM 16.5 copper
IGO 107c nickle producer
TYC 43c copper

I hope I can beat 5%
David

maligas

Member

Post Number: 29
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 24, 2004 - 08:06 pm:

Hilarius and Peter, 'tis a good idea this one. Below are my 10 stocks:

NDC - 0.275
AXA - 3.36
OSH - 1.30
MOS - 0.22
GOG - 0.255
KRS - 0.51
VCR - 1.52
AMP - 6.24
ILU - 4.40
TAW - 1.45

Fingers crossed ;)