Archive through June 28, 2004

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hilarius

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Post Number: 165
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 12:01 pm:

NightStalker

For a curve scrambler you've chosen an interesting group ... some of which I regard as quite powerful opportunities provided general market conditions remain favourable

I will be preparing some charts at the weekend that display the relative performance of the various groups of 10 and some individual stocks that seem to be trending most strongly in the different groups

My timetable for this is to print these charts here on Saturday afternoon ... if all goes according to plan

Thanks for contributing

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 166
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 12:17 pm:

Bandicoot and Maligas

Thanks also for your selections

To all who have contributed is there any problem if we hold these lists fixed for 2 weeks before making any changes?

Please advise if your choices were more short term than that

If you have stops in mind they will be recognised within the 2 weeks if you put them up for all to see

Otherwise it will be assumed your orders were good for 2 weeks !!!

At that time I will try to handle additions and deletions from the lists

In general, as you comment from here on, it would be good if you could throw some light on your time frames.

Mine were selected to hold for several months unless stops are hit

I will try to set a good example by listing my stops when I get a moment

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

Incredible Charts
Free Charting Software

Auto-Fit Trendlines

Trend Channels

Linear Regression
Channels

Raff Regression
Channels

Standard Deviation
Channels

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 437
Registered: 03-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 12:22 pm:

Hi Hilarious & Shawky,

I may have to rephrase,sometimes with a top manager coming in you see the price of a share being rerated immediately.
In DVC case this has not been recognise because management has not change.When looking at interest of management we find that if management buys from the market at market price helps instead of given free options at lower price.

IN DVC case the acquisition will result in synergies and cost savings. Economies of scale goes a long way.Also being the largest in medical imagery.

Being included in ASX 100 will attract fund managers automatically thus increasing its attractiveness. It is important to understand and pre-empt otherwise if we wait for everything to happen we are then competing for the same shares.Being smaller we are more flexible and get in and out quicker.

1.Change in directors interest lodgement is important especially if the parcel is fairly large.This is a case especially when the company is turning around as management sees value in the shares and also do not want to water down capital. You will see some of my selections support this point.

2.Capital management is very important too. Share buy back or special dividends will help with the share price. Management will normally announce ahead.

3. In case of acquisition or merger, we can sometimes see management protecting their interests ahead of shareholders.

Please forgive me if I do not email you on the week-end because I normally retire to my cocoon in the central coast. I do not look at the computer. I normally try to get away by mid-day Friday from my office.I wont be looking into the computer till I come into my office on Monday.I am lucky in such I do not regard what I do as a chore rather as a hobby and enjoyment which pay for it self and which has given me a life style that I desire. I promise to catch up with all the emails on my return.

Next week end I am joining the festive board of the Incredulous Fleet hoping to learn from such distinguish sailors like Captain Chazza,First Mate Spider, Officers Mosiac, SusieQ and other great sailors like Laffee and Uturn and other gems. I am fond of the Melbourne culture and the people down south only thing is how am I going to handle the chill of the weather. i am already feeling the cold now. Perhaps a rum may help.

To other contributors of the top 10 selection it would be great if the selection can be justify. I hope to pick up a gem or two for trading or even for inclusion in my portfolio from your selection.

With Best Wishes,

Peterloh

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 438
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 12:29 pm:

Hi nightstalker,

Your selections appeals to me. In fact I have fond memory because I picked up UGL, CTX at an early stage but got off to early because it doubles after that. PPT,TAH , STO are heavy weights to me, the others are very promising. Dam it I have to learn CFDs.

best wishes,

Peterloh

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 167
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 12:34 pm:

Peter

Enjoy a great weekend ... it is a wise man who takes time to refresh and revive

Six days shallt thou labour but the seventh day is the day of the Lord your God

Non-believers can work all seven days

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

shubh_labh

Member

Post Number: 25
Registered: 06-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 01:07 pm:

Hi Peter and everyone else. Privilege knowling your selections, thanks.

Hopefully this weekend I can post my selection of 10. I am posting my current holdings and DO intend keeping five of current. Please do advice.

Do congratulate me for having the courage and wits to have trimmed down from 30+

just a month ago, and all that without denting overall performance for the year.

My current Holdings:

BKL backbone of my holdings. Div+good story.
TOL TA NE. intended medium/long term
WSF have always had it
UGL did well but just as Peter, sold it too early. back in.
TSE I bought it back 17th based on my chart. Now not sure.
PMN
ION I bought based on my little knowledge of TA
CDO
ALN also based on TA
AMP two days. A good man seem to think highly. Chart okd.
SGW ;)Our good friends mentioned it and my chart approved.
MFS Not worth TA but good story.
CCE has been good to me

HLY went xdiv yeasterday and holding up well.

Regards.

(Message edited by shubh_labh on June 25, 2004)

Here to learn.

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 168
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 02:13 pm:

Shubh Labh

Congratulations and thanks ... your group will appear in the monitoring chart and individual stocks and charts will attract comment, I'm hoping

With Best Wishes

Hilarius (rushing now but will comment again during the weekend)

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

nightstalker

Member

Post Number: 192
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 02:30 pm:

Hilarius - thanks for your comments re my little selection. And thanks for going to the trouble of doing this exercise - I for one will find it very valuable. As a relative newbie and curve scrambler :-)

I am all ears for anything I can learn, and it will be a good lesson to see how my lot perform relative to the others. I intend to keep holding all those on my list until the charts tell me it's time to say goodbye, and I have trailing stops in place for all of them, but reasonably loose ones at present, to allow for some movement.

My stops are based on the trend lines and 22 day EMA, and various support/resistance levels. Where a significant S/R level crosses either the trendline or the 22 day EMA, whichever looks safer (bit subjective there), then I set my stop just BELOW that point - say a cent or so, or just below the nearest round figure (e.g. dollar or half-dollar point).

Does that make sense? It does to me, but I don't know if I'm explaining it very well. The stops move up every time a S/R level changes.

Thanks again Hilarius - nice project :-)

(Message edited by nightstalker on June 25, 2004)

Best wishes,

NightStalker - still scrambling up the steep part of the learning curve

rebyte2

Member

Post Number: 128
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 03:13 pm:

Hi All

I was going to refrain from this because im a total novice in the share market, and thought that i would make a complete ass. I can clearly see that i am but a sapling in amongst a tall forrest of experienced traders. My knowledge on TA and FA is very limited indeed(as can be seen by my limited postings). So, please whip me gently, and keep the laughter down to a dull roar.

But, this has totally attracted me like a magnet, so im prepared to have a go. I feel i can only receive constructive criticism for my pickings(*gulp*).

AMP - back on the rails(I hold this stock)
BSL - long term uptrending
OSH - big hicup in Apr thru June, but back on track
CTX - Absolute favorite(I hold stock)
AGL - Except Feb & May 04, has been long term uptrending.
WPL - Strong established company
OXR - Broken the downtrend
BOQ - Appears to have found the right direction.
OST - Strong push upwards
SPC - very nice fruit :-)

Abit of a mixed bag. See how I go with that lot.

Special thanks to Hilarius for this project. Should see some interesting results in time.

BTW....This thread is going to grow overly big in a short period of time, I feel. Maybe should see about its own Topic position.

regards
rebyte

new2waix

Member

Post Number: 917
Registered: 10-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 04:13 pm:

Maybe off the topic....

------------

Back in January 2004 we discussed our "hot tips" for 2004.

Stocks to Watch in 2004
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/194411.html

Almost 6 months later....

119 = Sample Size
61 = Winners
58 = Losers
(Haven't removed duplicates)

Big Winners <20%
AXN 53% (Picked by Shawky)
SFE 21%
IAG 21%
BOL 21%
GTP 59%
COA 22%
ALL 175%
AWE 21%
CSL 21%
TOL 29%
RDF 103%
TWR 31%
OSH 29%
HHG 29%
RKN 49%
TEL 13%
HDR 91%

Big Losers < 20%
SDI -26%
CLV -43%
GRN -36%
BCL -51%
CLH -25%
LHG -30%
MSC -26%
LEI -22%
ADU -44%

..

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 169
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 04:47 pm:

Hello Nightstalker

Let the forum know if any of your stops get hit ... and I will prune your list accordingly ... trailing stops are a very wise precaution

Rebyte

Thanks for joining in the fun ... we can all laugh at each other's selections and you may surprise yourself

In picking BOQ and WPL you have already endeared yourself to the wife a of a certain Roman Emperor who used to grace this Forum, a slightly clownish character by the name of Claudius. Lady Claudia only buys stocks beginning with "B" and "W" ... and I should add that your BOQs are off to a very good start.

New2

Maybe we can take the best and worst 10 from the January list to compare with the new lists. (By the way I won't tell anyone if you won't but I think one of your little < symbols is pointing the wrong way.)

A hilarious weekend to all

Hilarius (not spelled incorrectly ... named after an early Pope Hilarius ... look it up if you don't believe it ... Hilarius is latin for the English first name Hilary which used to be a male name before it was hijacked by the gentler gender ... and just for the record I was male when I last checked)

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

nightstalker

Member

Post Number: 193
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, June 25, 2004 - 05:12 pm:

Hilarius - I'll let you know if any stops get hit. Did my rather contorted explanation of my stops make sense? Does this sound like a reasonable method, all you much more experienced experts in here?

And don't forget Hilarius - checking the gender too often will send you blind - my advice would be to check only until you need spectacles!

Best wishes,

NightStalker - still scrambling up the steep part of the learning curve

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 175
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, June 27, 2004 - 02:56 pm:

Greetings All

My apologies for missing the Saturday deadline

Monastery duties flowed thick and fast this weekend

It is probably not fair to display a whole week's performance Friday to Friday, given that the selections were made mid-week by most people

However it is just a starting point ... and future weeks will tell a truer story

Other priorities permitting I will try to post a message showing which individual stocks did best

I will also try to report on the Weinstein Group's 10 stocks

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

Ten Stocks

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities