Archive through July 06, 2004

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new2waix

Member

Post Number: 973
Registered: 10-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 04, 2004 - 10:57 pm:

I appreciate all the effort, however I have to say I agree with the last few posts.

I thought the objective of the exercise was to assess the performance of 10 stocks for a time frame of months.

In fact, I thought the original objective was to provide a starting point for anyone interested in pursuing further research?

Maybe at the end of month (or respective period) we can guage performance on entry price against high for the period?

The options are endless... I like to keep things simple, so no exit strategies need apply to my selections. My selections were based on fundamentals, with a time frame of 6+ months.

All the best :-)

nightstalker

Member

Post Number: 222
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 04, 2004 - 11:40 pm:

My selections tend to be picked for the medium term - i.e. weeks to months, but my STOP was hit by Santos, as I reported to Hilarius, and replaced with UTB. For me, these are actually stocks that I'm holding, so I guess reporting getting stopped out and a replacement is more "real-life".

The maths shouldn't be too hard for Hilarius's spreadsheet - just replace one stock with another and go from there with the new prices.

I think selling out on stops should be reported, along with replacements, as this would be relatively simple as mentioned, but trading out of stocks to take a profit perhaps would make things TOO complicated. Poor Hilarius would have to keep track of profits in cash that were in excess of the nominal $10,000 (Hiliarius dollars) that each new stock would be bought for.

My vote would therefore be for reporting of stop-outs and replacements only.

Best wishes,

NightStalker - still scrambling up the steep part of the learning curve

shawky

Member

Post Number: 317
Registered: 11-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, July 05, 2004 - 12:33 am:

Team
The lions are once again scratching at my door and I have not yet completed my task.

Hilarius has left the number crunching to a humble servant, but the information provided appears to be incorrect in part.

Attached is a spreadsheet containing almost all the trades completed so far to date. All the bells and whistles have been removed due to complicated privacy and non disclosure rules at the Monastery. I have not added in the trades resulting from prices hitting your stops, nor the replacement stocks and I think there is the odd error in the information dropped by carrier pidgeon. For example Hutcho I think you over spent (too many stocks)

If you would all be so kind as to download the attached spreadsheet and check your portfolio. If you find any errors post the errors (as shown below). This should be more effective than me going through every post for the past 2 weeks to sort it out.

An example response using the spreadsheet format might be
ID,Date,PA,Code,Activity,Quantity,Price - Comment

104 - delete UGL (i.e. Hutcho to remove 2 stocks)
150, 25-Jun, 10, AMP, Buy, 1615,6.19 - existing entry is wrong
xxx, 2-Jul, 16, OSH, Sell, 7874, 1.26 -stopped out
xxx, 5-Jul, 16, CPU, Buy, 3119, 3.18 - replaces OSH

where I will replace xxx with an actual ID when I enter the data, or xxx = the actual ID is the spreadsheet if you want me to fix that trade. I will also fix the buy qty/price to suit actual prices on the day/condition orders are made.

Initial order qty is calculated as TRUNC($10000/Unit Price)
where as replacement stocks cannot cost more than available cash as in the real world. Cash can be held in the account but no interest is payed (at present). Remember, the Monastery has limited funds and cannot sustain a budget deficit.

For replacement orders, I see no problem in accepting an order for Buy on the next Open/Close but once the Hall Of Fame Spreadsheet is finished, other methods may be acceptable.

regards
Shawky

Hall Of Fame 1
hall of fame initial orders.zip (26.3 k)

greywolf

Member

Post Number: 149
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, July 05, 2004 - 01:27 am:

Hi Shawky,
My initial trades appear to be entered correctly.
I have not been stopped out of anything as yet.
No ammendments neccessary.
cheers

Keep this in mind; The Stock Market does not care what you or I think!

mosaic1996

Member

Post Number: 795
Registered: 01-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, July 05, 2004 - 09:34 am:

Hi Hilarious,

Best approach depends on what the exercise is all about.

One advantage of not allowing replacement stocks is that it would make it far easier to do further analysis on the portfolios, e.g., win-loss ratio, expected return, etc per selected stock.

If I can't use my approach to exits (one of my competitive advantages), then I would like to withdraw from the exercise.

Cheers,
Mosaic

ingot54

Member

Post Number: 40
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, July 05, 2004 - 10:19 am:

I'm in for the long haul.

No changes anticipated, so will go with the flow.

Thanks hilarius and friends.

Ivan

You can be free. Focus on reality, see the world the way it is, and trade with your eyes open.

shubh_labh

Member

Post Number: 41
Registered: 06-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, July 05, 2004 - 12:42 pm:

Mosaic, good morning and regards. I find your HZN inclusion.... daring but you have proven yourself right.

Main challenge, I faced was maximum possible capital preservation, striking balance between proven and speculative, and possible 15% decent growth over next six months. I did not yet know the rules but six months is a long time to leave your money on the table.

TOL, HDR, RDF, HLY have established uptrend, fundamentally sound, and I feel still a long way from any serious correction. I don’t see any threat to my capital or any heavy loss in those.

UGL, I had to add for some volatility and possibility of sudden upsurge in prices. QBE, I believe might just be the one to give me maximum profit in next six months.

Of remaining four speculative (just slightly speculative) GGL, MXL and RPC, I don’t expect (and never again EVER) to TRY and double my money. Just a decent profit of 15 to 20% in next six months should suffice. I felt comfortable, cause from charts; I could tell how low these three possible could go, in case of any negative sentiments.

ASL six months might not be enough time but just might be the one to join big league before other more popular speculative stocks.

Being a newbie and least experienced among the group, I really am not sure what to expect. Call it a beginners luck or call it a hunch..... I expect growth of between 14 to 20% in next six months........of course one never can tell.

:-)

Disclaimer: Please do not consider my selection of stocks in this growth list to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn and that's all I am doing...... learning. Only serious advice I can offer is PLEASE be careful, do your own research AND consult experts before buying or selling stocks. Always remember: its your hard earned money.

Here to learn.

mosaic1996

Member

Post Number: 797
Registered: 01-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, July 05, 2004 - 02:27 pm:

Hi S L,

Thank you for taking the time to explain your positions, and you shouldn't underestimate your abilities. I notice that you have selected HDR - me too!

HDR/WPL/ROC have just announced more detail on their upcoming drilling program (Aug) offshore Mauritania as you are probably aware. The share price of HDR and ROC will be very dependent on the degree of success/failure that they experience during this lengthy campaign. The point that I am trying to make is that HDR is not going through a rerating based on growth of business and recognition of changed business conditions, e.g., CTX and other strong trending stocks. HDR has been rerated on past success and IMO there is a fair amount of anticipated success already built into the share price. This makes the risk-reward equation a little less appealing. Of course if they have great success drilling then the share price will go on another tear, but a string of poor results would see the share price head south. Anyway, the ride won't be boring.

Re. HZN. There was very little doubt in my mind that HZN would recover from the low 5s very quickly. Whilst I still think that HZN has further to run (especially on expected news)., it is clearly riskier now in the low 6s as there is still a chance that news will be bad rather than good.

Cheers,
Mosaic

shubh_labh

Member

Post Number: 42
Registered: 06-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, July 05, 2004 - 02:59 pm:

Mosaic regards. HDR.... for a least exciting day market seem to have appreciated today's news. up 6 cents! i think more upside to this once it establishes its roots above $ 2. As per my notes, HDR I believed is leveraged to a world class oil field in Mauritania, consider strong oil prices and possible speculation of a takeover.

Here to learn. Please do not consider my mention of any stocks to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn and that's all I am doing...... learning. Only serious advice I can offer is PLEASE be careful, do your own research AND consult qualified experts before buying or selling stocks. Never forget: its your hard earned money.

gohard

Member

Post Number: 131
Registered: 05-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, July 05, 2004 - 06:14 pm:

Hi Hilarious,
Seems i may have these stops set to fine,today i was stopped out of FGL 4.63,RMD 7.20 following the course set it will show that my stops follow the COD less 1% or 2% but if the trend changes the stop does not change from the last high thus it will be activated if the fall continues, as is the case with the above stocks (gives one practise in getting rid of emotions as they are set with the e*trade stop loss constraints)
i have chosen as the replacements AXA 3.40, ASX 15.80
if this should have waited till Saturday please let me know and i will advise you then in the assessment sheet
thanks G

marsupial

Member

Post Number: 8
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 06, 2004 - 12:52 am:

Hi Shawny. I originally only chose 9 stocks. Hilarius queried this and I added IGO as my tenth stock. Line item 150 in your Hall of Fame.

I don't plan on selling any for some months. Incidentally I hold 7 of my 10 stocks. In lesser or greater qty. OXR, PNA and AWE the biggies.

Lets not make life difficult. KISS principle.

shawky

Member

Post Number: 318
Registered: 11-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 06, 2004 - 10:03 am:

Thanks Marsupial
The Trading Bank has been updated. I believe Hilarius is enjoying a bit of Piano music for a few days so did not wish to be disturbed. Hence I am unable to update the list of corrections to the original portfolio.

Please review your list below and post me your subsequent trades (date, buy or sell, code, price). New positions (Buys) use whatever Hilarius deemed, but I think in future you may specify to buy on open or close the following day.

Remember these are supposed to be growth portfolios so keep the trading level down. For now whilst the rules are being decided, I'll accept all trades (i.e. MOSAIC's requests) until Hilarius is back on deck.

No charts yet until the Bank is in sync with everyones trades. Current positions are as follows. All were opened on the close of 25 June 2004.

Portfolio PA Stocks
Bandicoot 1 AGY AXM IGO NST RMS SRI TGD TRO TYC URL
Encephalon 2 CBH CRD GGL GTP HWE NDC PEM SCE SGW SSX
Gohard 3 CLH COH FGL FXJ IPG ORI PPX QAN RMD SIG
Greywolf 4 ALL AMP AWE BSL CCL LNN OSH RDF SLM SMS
Hutcho 5 BBG CCL CDO FWD GTP GUD RHC TEL TOL TSE UGL WPL
Ingot54 6 CCL CEP CLH FXJ GAN HLY ILU ION NCM OST
Josl 7 ALN BSL HDR LNN LOK MTT SFC TAA TMO WMR
Koan 8 BKM CAI EXS FLK IBA LEG MME MUR PSP SYG
Maligas 9 AMP AXA GOG ILU KRS MOS NDC OSH TAW VCR
Marsupial 10 AWE HDR IGO NXS OEX OXR PNA RNG RSN WPL
Mosaic 11 AWE ERG HDR HZN ION MOS OXR ROC SGW VOY
New2waix 12 CDO COF FAN FWD GNS JBM KRS MXI PCG SDG
Nightstalker 13 CTX MAP PMP PPT QBE RDF STO TAH TEN UGL
Peterloh 14 AMP BPC CPU HHG IAG MIA OST PMP SRP TWR
Rebyte 15 AGL AMP BOQ BSL CTX OSH OST OXR SPC WPL
Shawky 16 ALL APN BIL ERG IRE LNN MAP OSH PMM RIN
Shubh Lahb 17 ASL GGL HDR HLY MXL QBE RDF RPC TOL UGL
Weinstein Group 18 ALL BIL CBA CCL CSL ORG SHL TAB WFT WPL
Benchmark 20 XAO

regards
Shawky

ingot54

Member

Post Number: 41
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 06, 2004 - 10:24 am:

Thanks Shawky.

My 10 picks are correct and will remain unchanged for the duration of the exercise.

Ivan

PS If you are in contact with Hilarius - Please pass on my sincere thanks and appreciation for the huge effort this has been to co-ordinate such an exercise.

You can be free. Focus on reality, see the world the way it is, and trade with your eyes open.

shawky

Member

Post Number: 319
Registered: 11-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 06, 2004 - 10:33 am: