Archive through July 10, 2004
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     marsupial
Member
Username: marsupial
Post Number: 11
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 06, 2004 - 10:19 pm: | 
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I happy to share with you reasons for my 10 in some detail.
IGO - Nickel miner with some superb proprietory Ni "finders". PON now about $22K/t and almost no stock in LME . PON is likely to peak higher still. New area about to be mined. Chart not very conclusive.
OXR - My very definite NO 1. Huge further resources being discovered/quantified all the time. Huge increase in Cash Flow next year when Au plant upgraded and Cu plant in operation. Have a look at oxiana.com.au - laos - Image Gallery. You will be impressed. They have earn in right of 70% of Prominent Hill in SA. Likely to be huge mine for CU/Au/U. Other projects developing in Thailand + China.
Chart suggests 97c on the near horizon.
AWE Another ripper - Three major cornerstone projects (Cliffhead - WA; Casino - SA and huge BassGas project which starts pumping gas to Melbourne late this qtr. Taranaki offshore in NZ looks hot as well. Cash flows support $3 SP by end 05. Chart in continuous uptrend in channel.
HDR - Massive upside in Marituania offshore drilling. Also good prospects in of shore South America. 21 wells being drilled before end 04 via WPL operator.
OEX - Spudding Connolly 1 on 17th July. If filled to brim worth >$5 per share NPV. Followed by Rockwood S - Almost $4 NPV if full to brim. Well strike rate in both basins are about 1:3
RSN - The best junior Au player in Oz at this time IMHO. Production at Tom's Gully in early 05. POG likely to move higher after US election "thievery" out the way. Chart looks good.
NXS - Most prospective 4th qtr drill program in Bass Strait/Gippsland. Apache farm in for 94% costs shows the quality of the prospect. Almost immediate production possible as close to BHP/Esso infrastructure.
PNA - A junior OXR - Gold cap + Cu - Huge low grade deposit. Good broker reports.
RNG - Indee Au project likely to pour first gold mid 05. OXR exert strong influence here. Chart terrible but looking better this week.
WPL - 21 wells in Marituania + great Mexico prospects + huge export gas contracts from NW Shelf. Doesn't get much better than this. Chart in strong uptrend.
Thats it. Ill be disappointed if this lot don't yield at least 33% by ~ 8 Jan 05 (when market often peaks. %0%+ is my target. I've been wrong more times than I'm right.
You might note they are all resource stocks. I gave up on everything else sometime ago to specialise on resources. Good Management - essential; good teritory - essential; -close to production or producers - important; highly leveraged upside potential to mitigate the risk (which I claim is less than AMP, AGL, IAG, ALL etc etc. - you just don't know when you are going to be ripped of in the overall market IMHO)
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shubh_labh
Member
Username: shubh_labh
Post Number: 48
Registered: 06-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 06, 2004 - 10:54 pm: |
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Marsupial thanks and regards. I agree with your sentiments towards OXR. I wanted to get in today but that GAP kept me wondering?
Printed your preferences and will look them over this weekend. HDR seems to be a popular inclusion, Mosaic has it in his sellection and I too hold it. All resources..... WOW! It seems you have done well with resources due to your expertise in that sector. I bought SRI @ 0.25 and look at it now.
Here to learn. Please do not consider my mention of any stocks to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn and that's all I am doing...... learning. Only serious advice I can offer is PLEASE be careful, do your own research AND consult qualified experts before buying or selling stocks. Never forget: its your hard earned money.
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 811
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 07, 2004 - 11:46 am: |
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Hi Shawky,
Agree with brokerage, say $33 for each leg, giving $66 to change stocks. Should be sufficient to keep you on the Grange.
Shubh labh, et. al.,
I would view the exercise as pointless if we do not have a discretionary exit mechanism. I believe that most people here realise that a buy and hold strategy is not optimal.
As stated previously, I don't mind not be able to replace stocks, but I believe that you must be able to exit an (original) position prior to the end of the study. There is no way that I would have selected ERG for a long-term buy/hold. I selected ERG as a short-term (1 month max) bounce.
I agree that the study rules need to be consistent with the objectives of the study.
SL,
The rationale for my stock selection are as follows:
Fundamental based selections with supporting technicals
HDR - Mauritania drilling aug04-q1,05.
ROC - extensive and diversified exploration drilling: Mauritania drilling aug04-q1,05, offshore WA oct04, onshore UK aug04; and development chinguetti, cliff head and possibly china
MOS - gas sales contracts, extensive exploration and development. Price currently suppressed by capital raising, and expect takeoff late July
VOY - exploration offshore wa oct04, cash flow from Jingmenia.
risk/reward Kapul, PNG drilling. A mini-AWE in the making? Management is shaping up as good at doing corporate deals to add value. No desire to be operator.
HZN - maari field progress, Bayou Choctaw progress, Beibu gulf a possibility, excitement about high AWE - progress of development of Casino, BassGas and Cliff Head, exploration offshore NZ, etc. Excellent management that does superb corporate deals to add value.
OXR - expect rerating as projects come to fruition plus exploration.
Technical selections with supporting fundamentals
ERG - will history repeat with a bounce after tax loss selling - capital raising has probably stuffed this one completely.
ION - I really liked Hershey's chart on ION
SGW - ST recommendation. Selected on chart and fact that funds were taking a position.
Trade explanations/rationale
1. Sold ION and purchased AYO
There were 2 drivers
a) I liked Hershey's ION chart and I suspected that it was either a general rerating of an oversold situation, or some news brewing. When the news broke, I thought that it was mildly bullish, and it did not address the markets concerns with the stock. So I felt that ION rerating would stall at best, and possibly retrace.
b) I thought that AYO would significantly outperform ION in the short-term. If I didn't have a better option, I may have looked more closely at ION.
1. I have flagged my desire to get out of ERG when they relist.
In the case of ERG I expect that the capital raising will be (very) negative. Once details are known, I will make a final decision. At the moment I am seriously think of selling ERG and going short ERG. As I said I will make a final decision when capital raising details are known.
I don't always sell on capital raisings, but it is often because of tax and/or exit/entry issues.
Cheers,
Mosaic
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shubh_labh
Member
Username: shubh_labh
Post Number: 49
Registered: 06-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 07, 2004 - 01:08 pm: |
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Grateful to everyone. I think this entire thread or at least some of the posts might just become the candidates for inclusion in to INCREDIBLE POSTS section! My humble compliments to Hilarius and friends.
All you people are..... GOOD!
Here to learn. Please do not consider my mention of any stocks to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn and that's all I am doing...... learning. Only serious advice I can offer is PLEASE be careful, do your own research AND consult qualified experts before buying or selling stocks. Never forget: its your hard earned money.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 243
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 07, 2004 - 02:43 pm: |
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Good Afternoon
It's pleasing to see people giving reasons for their selections
Yes the selections were intended to be long term not short
It was always envisaged that replacement would be possible when stops are hit
Use of stops is good money management and is strongly encouraged
Stops of less than the natural variation in the stock price are not a good idea ... I will post a new message on the whole subject of natural variation
Also the option of replacement of one stock only at the end of a calendar month is under consideration, since reasons for investment can become stale, but good selection should minimise the need for replacements
The intention was definitely not to trade actively
Watch this space for further papal bulls
With Best Wishes
Pope-To-Be Hilarius II, waving humbly from the balcony of Saint Peter's Basilica, before returning to potato peeling at the monastery
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 813
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 07, 2004 - 07:59 pm: |
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ERG STOP LOSS RAISED TO $0.59
If hit, replacement stock SHORT ERG, SELL $0.59, STOP LOSS $0.62 (or SALE PRICE + $0.03)
SELL and SHORT on open if <= $0.59
SGW STOP LOSS RAISED TO $2.74
OXR STOP LOSS RAISED TO $0.83
Cheers,
Mosaic
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 815
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 08, 2004 - 02:25 pm: |
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Ouch! That was an expensive trip to the movies.
8 JULY SELL ERG $0.40
Replace with
8 JULY SELL ERG (SHORT) $0.40
8 JULY BUY ERG (CLOSE SHORT) $0.43
Stay in cash whilst licking wounds and
Cheers,
Mosaic
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 42
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 08, 2004 - 02:31 pm: |
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Mosaic
Probably the wrong forum for this, but I won't elaborate too much.
If you are interested in shorting stock, have a look at CSL at the moment. It has been ranging in a 10% band since mid-April.
I have been studying the market since Feb this year, and have come across this in research of the ASX 100. I haven't learned how to short the market yet, but that's my next project. I figure the bull market won't last forever.
Ivan
You can be free. Focus on reality, see the world the way it is, and trade with your eyes open.
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 322
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 08, 2004 - 07:15 pm: |
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Mosaic
A double bugger really. ERG is an extremely hard stock to predict. Had you been in a position to assess the situation at open, your trading may have been different. I thought of closing out then going short on open but after watching the prelim buy/sell the direction was not clear to me so going short was not an option. Looking at the huge gap likely on open I also decided to hold off selling and opted for the "let the dust settle" approach or decide end of day.
The choice either way was not enjoyable at first.
On the "FA for Dummies" side (for TAers like me) I would have thought buyers would be jumping in to take advantage of the discount rights issue. As it seems they have done so for today anyway.
Your long trades are duly entered but since I did actually say shorts weren't currently available your order was stuck in the pending IT facilities queue so looks like your off the hook for the short. Unless of course Hilarius disagrees - it is his game after all, I'm just on vacation to help out.
Anyway, the short was probably a short term trade and these are medium/long term portfolios that we are meant to be tracking.
Hilarius and I hope to compare results on the weekend to ensure that my trading spreadsheet is consistent with his results to date. If it gets the tick of approval, I will then apply brokerage to all existing trades and the results posted next week. This will alter the results from that posted by Hilarius but will reflect a more accurate view.
Koan
The random portfolio was going great guns. Have you considered marketing your random number generator? I think it would sell very well as a companion CD to the One Metre High of Books debated last year on this forum (or something like that).
regards
Shawky
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koan
Member
Username: koan
Post Number: 64
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 08, 2004 - 11:48 pm: |
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Hey Shawky,
Yeah, they were running pretty well, looked like they hit $110k at one point 
The Meter of Book has been a resounding success, and I feel I must give something back to the community that made it so. I have decide to Open Source my Stock Selection Black Box. I am releasing it for the good of the world.
The documentation is pretty scarce at the moment, and shall come with a nominal fee, but in the mean time, here is the code. Please use it responsibly.
-------------------------------------------------------
The Koan Stock Selection Black Box
perl -e"print int(rand() * 1554 + 1)"
Notes:
1. Replace 1554 with the number of stocks available
2. Prerequisites: perl
-------------------------------------------------------
koan
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 819
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 09, 2004 - 01:18 pm: |
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Shawky,
These things happen. Fortunately I didn't have ERG in my actual portfolio.
Dropping nearly $3,000 on the ERG long position, and then dropping $750 on the 2 minute short won't help my performance in the study - but that's life.
If I actually held ERG I wouldn't have gone to the movies. I had expected it to open mid to low 50s - so I was very surprised when I got home to see that it had been hammered on the open.
I wouldn't have sold on the open, in fact I may have taken a short term position. I am fairly familiar with these types of situation with the suspension and announcement of bad news with oil and gas explorers - sometimes they throw the baby out with the bath water - a real panic situation that leads to short term buying opportunities.
I still expect ERG to drift lower as the rights issue unfolds - although it doesn't look like it at the moment.
Cheers,
Mosaic
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 44
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 09, 2004 - 02:24 pm: |
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Mosaic
This might explain the movement of ERG a bit more clearly. The rights issue has been underwritten.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/07/08/1089000292029.html
HTH
Ivan
You can be free. Focus on reality, see the world the way it is, and trade with your eyes open.
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 820
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 09, 2004 - 02:39 pm: |
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Hi Ingot54,
When they have to price the rights at 33.33% ($0.20) of previous close ($0.60), then they were having a lot of trouble finding underwriters.
This will give ERG a theoretical price of around $0.40 after ex-rights. I believe that ERG will settle substantially below $0.40 before the rights issue is over.
On the other hand, if the market truly believes that this raising will turn ERG around, then they may power ahead. Given the pricing of the rights issue, I just can't see it.
Cheers,
Mosaic
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