Archive through September 08, 2004

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shawky

Member

Post Number: 364
Registered: 11-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 27, 2004 - 09:32 pm:

Hi all
I realised that we have been posting this Case Study to the Short Term ASX section of the forum so here is our new thread to continue the experiment. For those just joining this group, Hilarius asked members to put forward 10 stocks for further research and to study the comparative performance of each group of 10 against the all ordinaries over the next 12 months. Each portfolio started with $100,000 Hilarius Dollars from the Monastery at a favourable interest rate of only 1000%p.a. and commenced trading on 25 Jun 2004. This is not a short term trading portfolio.

Please feel free to discuss your trading approach, reasons for stock selection and methodology.

For further information on what has transpired to date, please browse through the following links:

Group of 10 Stocks (stock selections detailed here)
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/290494.html
Hall Of Fame - Where to from here
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/316907/321316.html
Older threads relating to this topic may be found by searching the forum using the "Weinstein" keyword.

Participants are requested to state their Buy and Sell instructions as follows:
Date Stock Buy/Sell Price
Participants should keep track of their own stops, and be honest when quoting trades re liquidity etc. New trades should be opened at the closing price and preferably on the Friday but this is not mandatory as this rule is simply to reduce my workload as Hilarius' Clerk.

The results for this week are provided below.
Since Wednesday New2 has knocked Koan's random pick portfolio off its perch. A great week for bourse and pleasing to see most participants continue to out perform the index.

My stock selections have been taken from the ASX200 and consist mostly of strong trending stocks. It was selected in a hurry from my watchlist at the time, so it is not my preferred list but I am extremely pleased with its performance. The latest addition OST was carefully selected based on its trend slope and trend stability. Fundamentals were not used as a primary parameter in the selection process. However, given two selections with similar chart patterns (i.e. same slope, and similar degree of stability) , the one with the best Funny Mentals gets the Gold Medal.

All of my stocks have STOPS which are no more than 10% but preferably around 5% of the purchase price, and are moved up to somewhere below the previous swing low after a new high is achieved after retracement. (similar to Weinstein)

With my real life trading I also apply a time based stop and tighten up the price stop. I also use a shorter timeframe trade. I have to admit, that the Hilarius Hall Of Fame Portfolio has outperformed my real trading. I know why, and it has nothing to do with this being a game, and the other real. It was because I broke rules: Entry criteria (chasing the price), and stops (lowering it, or giving it longer to run).

regards
Shawky

P.S. If stops were hit this week, please let me know. Given the good run on the bourse I have assumed that all stock selections went well.

rederob

Member

Post Number: 296
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 27, 2004 - 10:04 pm:

shawky
A wonderful job you are doing so thanks again - from us all I am sure.
Although I do hold all the above, and as you can see they are outperforming to the DOWNSIDE, my total real-life portfolio went very well over the week - so I am quite happy with the markets.
I admit that LUM is a major worry in that they have reported nothing positive moneywise for some time, tho their product spruiking is at the top end of standards I hold the Gold Coast white-shoe brigade to.
Chemeq is also going to have a rough trot unless they have finalised a major contract or two before the stock returns to the trading floor.
As the rest of mine relate to commodities, I don't anticipate changing my esteemed position as Rear-guard to the Hall of Fame.
Wishing you all succesful trades for next week.

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 329
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 27, 2004 - 10:22 pm:

A special vote of thanks to Shawky for outstanding reporting efforts on behalf of the Hall of Fame members

Hilarius (surrounded by too many boxes to count as the monastery prepares to move its best reds north, next Thursday)

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

new2waix

Member

Post Number: 1113
Registered: 10-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, August 28, 2004 - 12:03 am:

Wow, didn't expect to hit the lead so soon!

My ten selections were based on ROA and ROE figures, as well as some other attractive financial ratios.

I did not look at the chart for any of my selections, although a number of these stocks had already posted impressive gains.

Below is my original post and note that I have not made any amendments to my original list since then. Simply "buy and hold"...

Some interesting food for thought....

Tuesday, June 29, 2004 - 11:58 am:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Okay, to mix things up a bit, here are my ten 'fundamental' selections. Should be interesting to compare the TA vs FA results.

JBM
CDO
FAN
PCG
GNS
KRS
MXI
FWD
COF
SDG

Happy researching

..

koan

Member

Post Number: 81
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 29, 2004 - 12:11 am:

Hi Shawky,

I have lost the original buy prices for my list of 10, could you provide them for me, and I'll try and incorporate an active random management approach to the selection.

The original Groups of 10 Stocks thread has vanished into the mists, so I could use a refresher on the swap rule. As I recall, you can only swap a stopped stock on a Friday, is that right?

Thanks,

koan

This sig may be edited for clarity

chance

Member

Post Number: 264
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 29, 2004 - 01:20 pm:

Koan,

Is this the thread you're looking for?

http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/316907/295815.html#POST43829

I think you should market your random stock picker, it should be worth millions

Regards

chance

shawky

Member

Post Number: 367
Registered: 11-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 29, 2004 - 03:48 pm:

Koan
Your bank transactions to date are:
25-Jun 8 Bank Deposit 100,000 1
25-Jun 8 BKM Buy 625,000 0.016
25-Jun 8 MUR Buy 476,190 0.021
25-Jun 8 SYG Buy 1,250,000 0.008
25-Jun 8 MME Buy 83,333 0.12
25-Jun 8 LEG Buy 71,429 0.14
25-Jun 8 PSP Buy 66,667 0.15
25-Jun 8 EXS Buy 55,556 0.18
25-Jun 8 IBA Buy 32,787 0.305
25-Jun 8 FLK Buy 13,158 0.76
25-Jun 8 CAI Buy 10,101 0.99

(The 2nd col '8' is just your Portfolio ID number)

The Friday rule was implemented to reduce the number of trades per week. 19 players each with 10 stocks could make the workload onerous. I don't mind which day you use, but convention has been Friday Closing price for new positions.

regards
Shawky

koan

Member

Post Number: 82
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 29, 2004 - 08:58 pm:

Thanks Shawky,

I'll put a 15% trailing stop from Fridays prices, and as LEG is 28% below the initial buy price, it should go now.

So that is a sell of LEG at 0.10, and a buy of CPK at 3.3 (Fridays prices).

Which looks like a complete flatliner, but thems the breaks when you use random numbers...

This sig may be edited for clarity

shawky

Member

Post Number: 368
Registered: 11-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 29, 2004 - 09:19 pm:

Sounds good Koan
A 15% stop is about the right ball park for the timeframe I think Hilarius was focusing. Anything smaller and stops might be hit more often.

Trades duly entered. New2 - watch out the random number generator has just been put into fast forward!

Also, all traders wishing to purchase a copy of the Koan Random Stock Selector should send cheques to:
Hilarius' Hall Of Fame
c/o The Monastery
Hill Top Crescent
The Wilderness, AU

regards
Shawky

koan

Member

Post Number: 83
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, August 30, 2004 - 07:53 am:

Hmm. I am not convinced that you should be selling copies of something I have given to the public domain for free.

I have another offer for the traders out there. Anyone wanting the secrets to my random success should firstly avoid reading too far back in the original thread (no really, you won't find it in there), and should contact me privately.

I will provide the system for personal use only for free, except of course a paltry 20% of any successes you gain from my hard work.

I thankyou.

koan.

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archer

Member

Post Number: 272
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, September 03, 2004 - 03:35 pm:

Hi Shawky
If you could please make these adjustments
Sell epr @ 12.5 cents
Buy rrs @ 2.5 cents
Thanks---Archer---

shawky

Member

Post Number: 372
Registered: 11-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, September 05, 2004 - 10:37 am:

Done

I was stopped out of PMM at 190 on Thursday locking in a small portion of the profits (10c of the 27c range to the peak - just over 30% of the range). I must say it is now sitting in the bottom of the range so will reconsider PMM once support is confirmed.

In the meantime I have considered taking a short trade. My choices were amongst COH ERG FOA and JHX. Looking at the charts, the safest short appears to be FOA, for COH may be finding support at $20, ERG is all over the place and JHX appears to be moving up (maybe temporarily). I am not overly confident in any of these for the long term, so have put a tighter stop on FOA.

2 Sep 04, Sell PMM 1.90
3 Sep 04, Sell(Short) FOA 16.89 (stop at 18.20)

Gohard, Hutcho, Koan, Mosaic, and Gjees are all running with less than 10 stocks, so may select a new addition.

Rederob, when might you consider cutting your losses with CMQ or LUM and moving the all too valuable Hilarius $ into something moving up? Or have you considered going short LUM or CMQ?

Chart for the week is provided below:

regards
Shawky

rederob

Member

Post Number: 310
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, September 05, 2004 - 11:09 am:

shawky
Hilarius dollars have tremendous upside potential and cost me nothing!
LUM and CMQ are unlike SGW (for the moment) in that they are not under administration - give it time I can hear the Dynamic Duo say from the bleaches.
I clearly chose two specs that have "blown up" short term.
Nevertheless, if this experiment works it's about seeing what performance differential a "buy & hold" strategy has to a an active trading strategy.
Because LUM and CMQ have products now in the market, they have the potential to spike sharply with a big product order or twentytwo.
When the fat lady sings I will probably have to concede defeat. But there is still a fair bit of time for things to change markedly for one and all.
Until then, I am doing a stirling job protecting the rear!

gohard

Member

Post Number: 174
Registered: 05-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, September 05, 2004 - 11:25 am:

Morning Shawky

I take note re you post that I was under the required number and looking back on my records, I found that my last buy and sell was on the 13th of last month, I believe that I hold the following stock as of that date.

The problem may have occurred when I indicated that CLH had hit stops and I did not confirm a replacement.

I opted to hold as the fall below the stop was 1 cent, and rather than create work for you let it run, it has recovered marginally since, the overall effect is nominal as of Friday close.

ALN ANN BLD BSL CLH CXP FCL MAY ORI PBL

Hope this is correct and if not please advise me and we can sort it out.

I also wish to say how I look forward to seeing the posted weekly results and how well the group is going

Thanks in advance G