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Message |
     ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 109
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 09, 2004 - 12:26 am: | 
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Brother Hilarius
In deference to your superior position in the Friary, and in cognisance of the fact that I have yet to earn even the rank of probationary monk, I proffer my apologies. Firstly for mis-spelling the fair Lady Claudia's name, for which I have rightly earned her disdain, but I pray, not excommunication. And secondly, for having the temerity to chide those who choose to call the new decorations in the Friary charting room "Wattyl Coloured Rainbows". I beseech you all to confer mercy upon this humble chartist apprentice.
As evidence of my sincerity, I have rushed down to the village paint shoppe, and have obtained the latest colour charts of the full range of Wattyl Paints. Upon forensic study of these, it could be said (cough), that one could draw a kind of, umm, similarity between the new decorations and what one may construe as Wattyl Coloured Rainbows (cough, cough).
In order to blot any lingering aspersions from my dossier, I have sought at length to conjure something of value to offer the Lady Claudia. I have bypassed many fine letters in arriving at my final selection, and indeed, the passage of time shall prove what a fine assembly of the B's and W's these five stocks are. And yes, they are expected to appreciate in value, and are doing so now, even as this communication speeds on its way.
Without further dithering, the stocks selected for the fair Lady are : BPC BCA BWP WOR and WYL - the last of these being the heart of the discussion - Wattyl Limited itself, included as evidence of my humility in this matter, and expected to outperform the others, after the current pullback in price.
As usual, I remind you that I am but an apprentice chartist, and as such, my work is yet to be proven in the battlefield, and should not be relied upon absolutely.
I hope that the manor at which you have assumed residence proves to be a place of repose for the Hilarius clan, and that you are able to obtain a suitable supply of refreshments for the cellar. May I suggest the 1998 Chateau Neuf du Pape, a case of which shall find its way to your manor, in the event our fortunes are founded on the B's and W's above.
With honour and salutations. God save the Queen.
Ivan
Disillusionment with yourself must precede Enlightenment.Vernan Taylor
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 332
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 10, 2004 - 07:46 am: |
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Dear Ivan
Your B and W recommendations have been received with great excitement at The Gold Coast Friary
Lady Claudia is beside herself and has amazed this particular friar by cooking him a hot breakfast of eggs, bacon, sausages and mushrooms
I will be watching the recommendations closely and hoping none falls by the wayside as Lady Claudia's wrath (as you know) has no rational limits
She even said as she served my breakfast "tell Ivan he sounds like a really nice person with an excellent capacity to choose "B" and "W" stocks" !!!
You've obviously pressed the right buttons Ivan 
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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marsupial
Member
Username: marsupial
Post Number: 24
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 12, 2004 - 08:52 pm: |
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Had a major windfall this week in my Hilarius $$$.
My OEX share came home in fine style moving from 18c to close of 88c at COB on Friday.
I'm tempted to move against my previous statement to hold until Jan05.
I hope its got more "fuel in the tank" and will hold.
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 386
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 12, 2004 - 10:39 pm: |
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Congratulations Marsupial
The chart sort of says it all.
regards
Shawky
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gohard
Member
Username: gohard
Post Number: 180
Registered: 05-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 15, 2004 - 10:20 am: |
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Hi Shawky
Boral BLD did the right thing and stopped me out at 6.94 this am
I will choose another stock at close on Friday to replace
Thanks in advance
G
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 389
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 19, 2004 - 11:12 pm: |
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Gohard
BLD sold as requested.
I was stopped out on FOA on Friday at 1820. I was thinking of bailing earlier during the week for the recent announcements may be causing more than a glitch in the down trend. I must admit I was edgy with teh short position, but would prefer to have at least one short in ten. At 1828 FOA has almost breached all of the red MA's in the rainbow chart above. Whilst FOA may turn south again, I will wait for better odds. Normally I would have waited for the turn south, but for the game I entered the trade on the Friday, so in real life I am still watching and waiting on FOA. I have replaced FOA with ARQ
17 Sep FOA Buy Stop 18.20
17 Sep ARQ Buy 0.96
Marsupial must be getting ready to shout us all a drink or two. OEX is up over 500%. Top stuff.
regards
Shawky
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 948
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 20, 2004 - 08:19 am: |
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Hi Shawky,
17th SEP BUY ICN $0.047
Cheers,
Mosaic
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 949
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 20, 2004 - 09:10 am: |
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Hi Shawky and Hilarious,
I had forgotten about this study, and missed some stops. Not to worry, they'll come good.
If your system can easily be modified to cope, I would like to propose the following addition to the study to allow for possible (partial) short-term portfolio protection without closing all positions.
You can go SHORT (only) either the XAO or XJO index at 10:1 leverage. This leverage is easily achievable via an index CFD. It would allow you to approximately offset 9 long positions with a single SHORT XAO position. I'd be inclined to use XAO as it is the most visible (Incredible Charts, Business News, etc).
Cheers,
Mosaic
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gohard
Member
Username: gohard
Post Number: 181
Registered: 05-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 20, 2004 - 10:51 am: |
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Hi Shawky and Hilarious,
Thanks for noting the change, I also wish to confirm that the stocks MAY 3.94,ALN 7.39 also had stops hit on Friday I wish to replace them with the following.
Buy BOQ 10.43 S/L 10.03
" AMC 7.38 S/L 7.10
" CTX 9.08 S/L 8.73
Thanks for your valuable time
Cheers G
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josl
Member
Username: josl
Post Number: 19
Registered: 06-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 20, 2004 - 04:40 pm: |
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G'Day Shawky & Hilarious
Just to let you know that I haven't forgotten this exercise.
Although I now hold very few of my original selection, I want to retain that original selection in your charts.
The results may not be competitive with everyone else, but they certainly show the dangerous practice of merely holding shares for so called investment purposes.
I am shocked by how much a lack of monitoring can affect ones capital growth.
This has been a great experience for me as although aware of the fallacy of so called investing by merely holding, actually seeing the reduction in growth has really cemented disposal of crappy non performers
Regards
John
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 428
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 12:36 pm: |
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G'Day Shawky and Bro Hilarius
Back from a couple of weeks tripping around NZ, and what do I find.....? Some stops hit! So, would you be kind enough to change my selections as follows please?
Sell GUD 9.82
Sell LNN 7.15
Sell RCD 4.25
Buy FCL 1.91
Buy CEY 3.75
Buy SLT 0.56
...all as of last Friday 17/9/04
That's when the actual trades were done, and I know CEY has come up a bit since then, but the other two haven't, and to be honest, I DID go to the trouble of finding an Internet Cafe to do the trades on Friday in NZ, so it should be fair enough to add the new ones as of Friday.... yes? ;) If that's a problem - accusations of hindsight etc - then change the buy price for CEY to today's opening which was 3.98 if that makes everyone happier
Been trying to catch up at work since Mon morning, so haven't got around to notifying these changes till now - sorry 
Keep up the good work - it remains much appreciated, and a very interesting exercise indeed
.
--
Best wishes,
NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 390
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 01:58 pm: |
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Gents
If you go on holiday, I would assume that you use automated stops to protect your equity OR you logon at an internet cafe occasionally to check your positions and make changes. Therefore I have no issue with back dating stops. The spreadsheet handles that though the changes wont be evident until the next chart posting.
Nightstalker, this game is run on honesty, so if you say you did the trade at that price, then that is what I will record. Of course if you'd said you had OEX before the takeoff I might have got suspicious/more so jealous.
Mosaic, the spreadsheet handles long and shorts but not gearing. However, if Hilarius is prepared to allocate a sum of $H specifically for hedging then that is fine by me, equivalent to the 10:1 gearing. I have thought of adding gearing to the spreadsheet but thought it unnecessary for the game.
For hedging purposes I see the following main systems available to the investor/trader:
1. Run a balanced portfolio across multiple sectors (or markets)
2. Hedge using market/sector indexes to match the portfolio weighting
3. Options/Warrants used to cover risk of actual holdings.
4. Guaranteed Stop Loss
5. Balance the portfolio with both Longs and Shorts across multiple sectors and markets.
The spreadsheet covers 1,2,4,5 though no fees have been applied to trades yet (function is available) and gearing is not supported directly.
May I suggest that H$100,000 be available should members wish to hedge using indexes. The funds will be held in a different account, so only the profit/loss of the hedge will be credited/debited to your account. Each index will be considered one Stock, with a maximum of 10 stocks+indexes remaining. Unless of course Hilarius would like to change the rules.
I welcome a detailed discussion on hedging but recommend that a new topic under Tradin Sistems be created for the task. (I think that is where it should go-spelling mistake deliberate to force upload of this message). Hedging is now one of my highest priority tasks on the list of things to do.
regards
Shawky
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 391
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 02:01 pm: |
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Oh
I forgot to mention
ALL - ALL TIME HIGH
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 429
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 03:03 pm: |
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Thanks Shawky Yes - I really did do those buys and sells at those prices - cross my heart and hope to make a profit
And I only WISH I'd bought OEX at 18 bl**dy cents!!!
And I'm still holding ALL, even though it's not in my selection list for this exercise - nice one!
.
(Message edited by nightstalker on September 22, 2004)
--
Best wishes,
NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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marsupial
Member
Username: marsupial
Post Number: 26
Registered: 01-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 07:24 pm: |
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Hi Folks. The excitement of the OEX and other large gains in my portfolio which closely tracks my own real portfolio by shares held (not percentage of each held though) was too much for me to take and I landed up in hospital on Monday morning at 2am with a heart condition.
Glad to say that I was discharged at 5.30pm today after numerous tests etc and new drug regime and am feeling fine.
By the way, the stress of risky investing is something one should go to avoid at all costs. In 2000 I got over confident and was making big $$ each day. Thought I was bullet proof. Gave up a top job to play the markets. Lost a very large amount of money post 15 April 00 much of which was borrowed money.
The stress of massive losses, no job, wife with pitch fork in hand and angry cat and kids was no small challenge.
However, made a strategic decision to buy only resource stocks. The whole markets too diverse and too many disappointments/"crooks" around. With resources the key is
Good management; Good management again; good resource prospectivity; producing or near producing state; strong out look for the commodity being mined or an oiler. If the latter must have high leverage for success. OEX had only 34 million shares on issue. Many closely held. Territory was great. MD only taking shares as payment etc. I did very well with OEX physically. Sold down to 20% of original holding. Still think the stock has a bright future, but big capital raising is due which will depress the price. Capital raising are things to watch out for in resource area. I bought heaps of PNA at 19c. I knew a CR was to take place to fund mine infrastructure, but at 16c didn't sell. It dropped to issue price (14c) and below. I should have sold and bought in again at lower price.
Where to with my portfolio from here? Still think its got heaps of upside other than OEX. I do watch the charts and I do spends 2 hours a day keeping in contact with known investors/ kitco commentators who I trust. The OXR crowd in particular are very helpful. Fellow Ozestock OXR holders organised a Billion $ MC party. Invaluable contact made at that dinner.
I am very keen to review hedging options to protect market gains. I am more inclined to do so via options rather than stop losses. I watch the market closely each 24 hours and am prepared to sell down on undue concern.
Hope these ramblings of interest.
Hi Gohard - another OXR Dinner attendee.
I would be happy to arrange a January/February get together
but suggest we are spread too far and wide. I'm in Sydney.
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 661
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 07:57 pm: |
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Marsupial,
Glad you are back and well and fighting fit and raring to go again. Stress is something we can all do without. We also learned from experience. That is one of the reason I ended up trading long term, started about 8 years ago and never looked back. Now and then I traded the small ones but not too succesful but keeping an interest.That is one of the reason that when I put up my selection I never knew it would turn into a race.Almost half my selection I have kept from last year and which has returned more than 100% profit but I do expect to run a lot harder soon and perform even better.Meanwhile I will just have to bide my time.Quite a few I catch them on the initial break out from stage 1 and of the lot ,failure rate is running at 25% which is quite good. I have never mention the ones that only did the spring but not the marathon they are ION, CLH, SGW(management not transparent),KRS etc.
Thanking for sharing your experience with us. I am sure we all can learn from you about resources. We should get together for a drink or a night out and enjoy ourselves for a change.
Cheers,
Peterloh
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 339
Registered: 04-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 08:03 pm: |
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Hi Shawky and all who have entered the Hall of Fame
From Paradise (Surfers) I send greetings and felicitations
The Hall of Fame is moving a little beyond the 6 months buy and hold with protective stops concept, and the interest in new hilarious instruments is understandable
Hedging and leverage are fascinating topics in themselves
I suggest that the Hilarius Hall of Fame stocks be frozen with the holdings at this coming Friday until the Declaration of the Winners on Christmas Eve
I also propose that next Monday the Shawky Hall of Fame be opened with some exotic new trading instruments including leverage and hedging using a veritable flood of H$ which I will arrange to send by armoured vans to the Shawky Software Centre known far and wide as Shawky Electronics. Hilarius portfolios should initially be transferred to the Shawky Hall ... at Friday's values
The Shawky Hall of Fame Financial Instruments are destined to perform Feats of Fiscal Fireworks ... causing the humble fraternity of humble friars to look on with awestruck amazement. Shawky has all the skills to handle stops, leverage and hedging ... I surrender to his superior skills.
Smooth reds and cooling ales will be provided at the Friary to all participants in the Hilarius and Shawky Halls of Fame by appointment. A counselling centre is also under consideration
Returning now to continue unpacking the Friary Fixed Assets ... while also checking the Liquid Assets for colour, taste and maturity
Hilarius in Paradise
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 431
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 08:06 pm: |
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Hi Marsupial - glad you made it through the heart scare
Welcome back to the razzle-dazzle world of investing/trading/whatever. In Brisbane here, but we're still toying with the idea of a S.E.Qld chapter of IC Forums, between myself, Hutcho, Muzza, etc etc - there are quite a few here, and a physical get-together would be great. And of course, not to forget Bro Hilarius, who recently moved here - we might, just MIGHT, make him an honorary Queenslander, as long as he refrains from supporting the Blues in the League State of Origin matches
--
Best wishes,
NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 340
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 08:06 pm: |
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Marsupial
Please take care
I've transferred from screen watching to long term trading in the interests of sanity
Not sure if it's working yet ;)
Hilarius in Paradise
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 331
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 08:10 pm: |
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I bid an initial placement:
At Shonky's counselling centre.
For misguided souls.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 341
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 08:10 pm: |
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Nightstalker
Well I have my Queensland licence and number plates after an all day session of form filling and psychological torture at the offices of Queensland Transport
I'm ready to support Broncos, Cowboys, Lions and whatever else you want but I realise that I will never be more than a baby Queenslander ;)
Hilarius in Paradise
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 432
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 22, 2004 - 08:46 pm: |
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Don't worry Bro H. - as long as you barrack for the Maroons in the State of O. you'll be OK. Only problem is, you'll have to learn how to pronounce their name a la Queensland-style - it's MAROAN, not MAROOOOOON. I must say I personally find this a disgusting habit - oops, sorry, didn't mean to refer to your robes that way - as I firmly believe that MAROON should be pronounced as on a desert island - MAROOOONED! But, in the interests of self-preservation at State of O games, I yell MAROANS with the best of 'em ;)
You have my email address Bro - drop me a line when you get your assets unpacked (as the actress said to the bishop). ;)
Welcome to Paradise Bro
--
Best wishes,
NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 952
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 24, 2004 - 06:14 pm: |
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Well, happy to freeze holdings, but I still have 1 allocation in cash so I would like to buy something.
If this is OK then
24 SEP BUY BUY $0.135 (Bounty Oil and Gas)
I am also short ERG. Now whilst I think that it may go a bit lower, I don't think that it will disappear so the downside is limited. Hence I would like to close out ERG, and purchase a different stock. I will then be happy to hold until the end. Incidentally my timeframe is also a bit longer, being Mar 2005 at the moment. If this is OK, I will
24 SEP BUY (close short) ERG $0.295
24 SEP BUY AYO $0.56
I would also like to be able to close out a position at any stage with the rule that once a position is closed you can not replace the selection, i.e., you stay in cash
Cheers,
Mosaic
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 343
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 24, 2004 - 06:28 pm: |
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Hi Mosaic and All Participants
The Hilarius Hall of Fame positions are closed as of tonight
If Shawky opens the Shawky Hall of Fame these will be his opening positions, on Monday
I am not sure of his plans
With Very Best Wishes and Thanks to All Who Have Participated
Hilarius
Incredible Charts
now with US Data
- AMEX, NASDAQ and NYSE data
- OTC BB and Pink Sheet stocks
- more than 500 market and sector indices
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I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 433
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 24, 2004 - 07:02 pm: |
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Hilarius - by this do you mean that the stock lists are no longer able to be changed, but the exercise will continue? Or do you mean that the exercise is over and prices will no longer be tracked and charted?
It would be nice if the weekly charts could still be put up, but with our holdings fixed as of tonight. That in itself would be an interesting exercise - to compare reasonably active trading (till now for some) with BHP investing (Buy, Hold and Pray).
--
Best wishes,
NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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