Archive through October 19, 2004

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mosaic1996

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Post Number: 953
Registered: 01-2003

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Friday, September 24, 2004 - 07:19 pm:

Hilarius,

Are my close of business friday trades valid?

If you are changing the rules (which is fine), it seems reasonable that we be given one last chance to rejig portfolios.

Cheers,
Mosaic

rederob

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Post Number: 334
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, September 24, 2004 - 07:34 pm:

nightstalker, if I had BHP shares I would probably be second last, instead of last - tho my bh&p policy to date certainly has reflected capital management pitfalls.
That said, you all may want to reflect on how kind the market has been in the past few months - multiple record profits for the big and small ends of town - with my selections hilarious in hindsight (for now at least) - of course, apologies to hilarius.
My clear orientation is towards commodities (with a few failed speccies tossed in), and their run into September is traditionally low.
Commodity prices have, however, perked up considerably this week and further gains should soon be reflected in the equities.
I do not that while the allords took a loss this week, my "real" portfolio gained a few percent, so there is still hope (in prayer).
Happy trading to all.

Only $16 (USD) per month

hilarius

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Post Number: 345
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, September 24, 2004 - 08:23 pm:

Mosaic and Others

Think of it this way ... the "Hilarius" portfolios are subject to a Trading Halt (until Xmas Eve) when they will be liquidated at Xmas Eve prices (a test of Buy Hold and Pray)

I have bequeathed all rights to operate the Hall of Fame, including adjustments as at today's prices, and all trading changes from here on, to Brother Shawky

I am not sure if he has plans to operate the Hall of Fame from here on ... I only know he has the skill ... I hope he also has the will

With Very Best Wishes to Mosaic and all Participants

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

shawky

Member

Post Number: 396
Registered: 11-2003

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Votes: 0


Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 01:22 am:

Mosaic, trades entered, you have may allocate one more stock whenever you are ready.

Results for this week are posted below. Please note that this is a study of medium/long term picks and our individual styles of trade management. The intent also being to incite discussion on the whys and wherefores of our picks and methods of managing them.

My FOA short did not go well, and I notice that my BPC long has done nothing since opening the position. My time based stop would normally have fired on BPC by now, but I'll give it one more week.

Looking forward to someone creating a topic for Hedging and managing risk in a new thread.

I don't mind either way if the portfolio's are frozen or we continue on as is. The workload to date has not been onerous. I am interested to see how we all go through the election.

At this stage, I won't be creating a new game with hedging or gearing as that is more work than I'm prepared to allocate time to at this stage.
regards
Shawky

nightstalker

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Post Number: 434
Registered: 04-2004

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Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 08:52 am:

Shawky - as a suggestion - how about two parallel exercises?

One - freeze all holdings as of now, and just see what the chart does each week - would I be correct in assuming that it would not involve too much work to do that?

Two - continue as before, with active changes as stops are hit and replacements made.

Call the first exercise Passive, and the second one Active, or some such :-)

This would provide a very interesting comparison into just HOW much better we really do by actively managing things, or in fact maybe the opposite....

Just a suggestion - I have no wish to impose extra work on you unless you're happy to do it.

Best wishes, and as always, many thanks for everything you've done so far. Thoroughly enjoyed by everyone taking part :-)

--
Best wishes,

NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

shawky

Member

Post Number: 397
Registered: 11-2003

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Votes: 0


Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 10:13 am:

Nightstalker
I don't really care if we freeze them or not, just that I won't be running two portfolio exercises at this point in time. The second "active portfolio" option is probably more productive though slightly more work for me, but not an issue as the trading activity has a long term focus. Trading activity on average to date has been acceptable.

Posting a chart from Excel is actually the most time consuming part as I must do a window capture, crop and resize the image to 651 pixels wide then convert to jpg ready for upload. Entering trades is easy when they are posted in the correct format. It takes longer to load the spreadsheet (and other applications) than to do the EOD update (macro) and chart data sort (macro).

I keep a copy of each weeks spreadsheet, so I could post a comparison of this weeks trading halt data with your active portfolios in say a month or two time.

regards
Shawky

nightstalker

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Post Number: 435
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Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 11:16 am:

Ok mate

Then I agree that continuing the active portfolios would be the more useful exercise, even though it means a little more work for you. Thanks for continuing the exercise.

Your suggestion of perhaps posting a comparison chart in a few months' time is also a good idea, and perhaps at the end of six months, the then-current prices could be updated for the stocks we all held as of last night - or is that too much like the parallel exercise? I was just thinking of the comparison between active and passive management - that is something that I have been learning gradually since I started trading. The more I churn, the less overall I seem to make. But there must be a "sweet spot" between sitting on a bunch of losers and too much churning - it's just that I haven't yet found that sweet spot! :-)

It may also point out the importance of setting stop-losses, as I'm sure there will be some stocks held currently that will turn out to be real downers by the end of another 6 months.

All in all - a really useful exercise we've all been doing here. It's not really a race to see WHO does best. Thanks once again to Bro Hilarius for starting it, and to you for continuing with your excellent work - thanks mate :-)

--
Best wishes,

NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

mosaic1996

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Post Number: 962
Registered: 01-2003

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Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 04:42 pm:

Hi Shawky,

3/4 time and my beloved lions look like they may get done like a diner.

I believe that I now have 10 stocks in the study. I suspect that you may have missed a buy posted for a buy as at friday week ago
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=316907&post=5027 4#POST50274

17th SEP BUY ICN $0.047

The only other trades were as of last friday
close ERG short position and open AYO and BUY which I suspect that you have.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=316907&post=5056 7#POST50567

Cheers,
Mosaic

rederob

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Post Number: 336
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 04:49 pm:

Shawky
Do I have time to short the Lions.-
15 minutes to go and 4 goals to kick - looks like Port Power will wave the Premiership flag (and me a maroaans supporter too, mosaic!!!)

shawky

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Post Number: 398
Registered: 11-2003

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Votes: 0


Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 05:17 pm:

Rederob
Sounds like a short term trade to me so would be against the rules.

Mosaic
It was AYO I missed - must have been a bit under the weather late last night.

Gohard, Hutcho, Lady Luck and Gjees are also running one position short.

regards
Shawky

P.S. Very nice advertisement Mosaic on your post. Did you earn $1 for that?

mosaic1996

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Post Number: 963
Registered: 01-2003

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Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 05:28 pm:

Thanks Shawky

Go Lions....

Cheers,
Mosaic

rederob

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Post Number: 337
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Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 06:03 pm:

Mark Williams (cleverly disguised) acknowledging the Premiership victory.

"Four in row" foiled in a last quarter drubbing of very tame Lions.
Newscorp now reconsidering move to US?
Shares in TEN propelled by media frenzy over Grand Final, spawned by more brawls than a whole season of Rugby League!
Scotts Transport considering an IPO?
Hilarius defers Queensland citizenship for another 12 months!
It's all good (if you are a crow eater).
Congrats to Port

hilarius

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Post Number: 347
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 06:11 pm:

Too late to postpone citizenship!

I paid for my Queensland number plates this week

Stood in the queue for 40 minutes

No going back!

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

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Post Number: 348
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Saturday, September 25, 2004 - 06:15 pm:

PS It is now the Shawky Hall of Fame

Time for a new thread?

And a new red

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

gohard

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Post Number: 184
Registered: 05-2003

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Sunday, September 26, 2004 - 10:57 am:

Morning Shawky
My post of 20 Sept indicated the last buy and sells.
I believed at that point I was filled with a 10 stock selection, would you please be kind enough to confirm if this is incorrect and I will make one final choice so the group is locked in
Thanks in advance G

shubh_labh

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Post Number: 92
Registered: 06-2004

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Sunday, September 26, 2004 - 11:02 am:

Good wishes and congrats.

Sitting at 2nd place behind Koan, I made a prediction on 14th August about my selection and have since been proven right.... so why am I

unhappy? My selection falls behind as market reaches for new highs!

I posted on 14th August:

"I expect my portfolio to slide once market goes in to bullish trend and will most probably end up with least gain among the group. At the moment, I am surprised to find my selections holding well considering my first priority tends to be capital protection and modest increase of no more than 25-30% a year.

Please do not consider my mention of any stocks to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. I am here to learn.

shawky

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Post Number: 401
Registered: 11-2003

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Votes: 0


Sunday, September 26, 2004 - 11:27 am:

Hi gohard
For some reason I missed your post 20 Sep though I have only just survived a hard drive crash on the 19th and subsequent teething problems with backups etc. I would prefer though that both stops and trades were stated in the preferred format. It keeps my workload down and helps avoid making mistakes. Check out Mosaic's post of the 24 Sep 6:10pm for a fine example.
Your trades are now locked in (back dated) and your position happens to remain unchanged.

To all
Please remember this is an exercise to compare different approaches to medium/long term trading not a competition on stock picks. Whilst I probably have a clearer view than most, there are some pretty obvious differences popping up at present.

regards
Shawky

gohard

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Post Number: 186
Registered: 05-2003

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Sunday, September 26, 2004 - 11:47 am:

Shawky
That's cool bad week for picking winners so I will continue to encourage the masses GO THE COWBOYS.
Cheers G

marsupial

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Post Number: 28
Registered: 01-2004

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Monday, September 27, 2004 - 11:36 pm:

Thanks Shawky for your ongoing commitment to the "Shawky Hall of Fame".

My results excluding Oilex have been gratefying. There appears to be a lot of upside potential in base metals, Au, Ag and oilers at the moment. I think these are the strong sectors that will yield very high returns over the next 9 months.

If POG can crack US$424 then we will see real fireworks.
Do your own research. Happy holding my lot. 8 out of 10 in profit with the other two expected to get there soon. Very large Share placement for PNA pushed that one under water and my largest holding OXR is biding its time before what I hope will be an explosive move to the upside.

Do your own research.

rederob

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Post Number: 350
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 01, 2004 - 04:38 pm:

Dear management team
Tho a few of mine are still with "dog" tags (CMQ & LUM), a couple others have done well this week and could lead to the "8000" mark on the charts disappearing in favour of 9000 for the time being.
DIO and MMN should deliver some handsome profits in the real world as gold and silver rally to new highs in coming months - (I know a few others here also have MMN in their portfolios) - not just because of precious metals ripping up the charts, but because both these company will significantly add to their reserves in coming months.
In this regard DIO's announcement today was quite spectacular, tho Lihir took some attention away from it - just because LHG is so big already.
By the way hilarius, if you have not got onto a good aluminium stock, act soon. Aluminium last week went into backwardation for the first time in yonks, and stock prices are not matching the metal's potential upside.
Happy charts to all in the Hall: With continued thanks to shawky

shawky

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Post Number: 405
Registered: 11-2003

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Friday, October 01, 2004 - 09:13 pm:

Thanks Rederob
I'll feel much better once I can change the minimum scale on the chart to $100k.

Lady Luck added OST to her portfolio today at $3.10
1 Oct 04 Buy OST 3.10

I was a bit disappointed with my portfolio, or should I say pleased with everyone else that their positions improved.

What has impressed me is that most portfolios have outperformed the index and that a number of us are now outperforming Koan's random number generator.

I have been thinking of adding gearing to the equation where those investing in the ASX100/200 would benefit, but this is a little extra work at this time. I think it would be useful to do at some point in time to demonstrate the benefits of margin lending and trading on the "Blue Chips" or not as the case may be. Food for thought - opinions sought on this one as the rate of "margin" would also need to be agreed as brokers/market makers are all different.

Congratulations to all on surviving one of the easiest 3 months I have seen this year. It will be interesting to see how we perform against the market over the October/November period.

regards
Shawky

rederob

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Post Number: 363
Registered: 10-2002

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Wednesday, October 06, 2004 - 11:37 am:

shawky
I have included a capital redemption stock (BSO) that will go exdiv in the last week of December - expected to return around 50cents (OK for a $2.20 stock).
Given the nature of this exercise, I humbly and belatedly request that BSO be replaced or converted to a cash holding as it will severely skew my outcome (which is not the best to date!).
If it can be replaced, I would like TEN to take its place from any date that you deem appropriate.
In the real world TEN is my largest holding by dollar value - I thought this be the fairest way to propose a belated change.
With a prayer that my will be done.
rederob

shawky

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Post Number: 409
Registered: 11-2003

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Monday, October 11, 2004 - 01:25 pm:

rederob
BSO sold, TEN purchased at closing prices for 6 October. In the future, just post your sell and buy details in the specified format along with your reasoning.

I also converted peterlo's MIA to DVC shares for Friday's chart.

For those who live in Sydney, Peter and I have arranged a social get togther for those in the Hills or prepared to travel out our way. For more info follow this link:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?9272/334337#POST51415

regards
Shawky

shawky

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Post Number: 412
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Tuesday, October 19, 2004 - 10:33 am:

How quick another week has passed us by. Results for last week below. Happy trading all.

regards
Shawky

Incredible Charts
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Auto-Fit Trendlines

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Linear Regression
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Standard Deviation
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nightstalker

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Post Number: 494
Registered: 04-2004

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Tuesday, October 19, 2004 - 07:38 pm:

Shawky - I'm slowly sneakin' up on you ;) OK, OK I know it's not a contest, but it's nice to see slow steady progress from right to left on that chart :-)

Keep up the excellent work Brother Shawky - 'tiz much appreciated by all.

I have a couple of changes to my list of ten, but I'll post them in the correct format tomorrow, all being well. I did take my profit out of ALL before it rolled over just a bit too much for my liking, and bought PDN. Also bought BSA after selling SNN, but I can't remember if I had SNN on my list for this exercise - my bit of paper is at work! I'll check tomorrow and post accordingly.

Best wishes,

NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"