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     peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1033
Registered: 03-2003Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Thursday, February 17, 2005 - 09:24 pm: |  
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Changing Times
Our market is not such a big market. Have we ever thought of the scenario where a big share holder or fund manager spend some money buying more of a certain share and in doing so pushes the price up considerably.Then the next step is to short that particular share using CFDs,options etc .Once this is set go on to sell the actual shares in the market all the way down helped by all those automated stop losses.The same person will cover the shorts later in the day,the next day or some time later again using CFDs for the multiplier effect.The same shareholder may buy considerably more CFDs.The next step is to buy back all the actual shares plus probably a bit more(long). This will again trigger all those that buy on automated break out once again pushing the share price to new territory.There will be a tidy profit at the end of the day. Hard times for those using CFDs and automatic stop losses. We have seen very good blue chips being sold down immediately and coming back in the same day or shortly there after. I do not know whether this game is being played out certainly it is not good for investors using CFDs or margins.This is indeed volatile times.
I remembered Dr Mahatir in Malaysia stopped this type of speculation and claimed that it wouldn't be good for the country.
Weinstein also warned against paying too high a price for any share, no matter how good it is.A safer bet is to buy them just breaking into the stage 2.
Gohard, in the short term we will have to face all sorts of volatility in the stock market. In the long term, a good share will justify its price.This is a shake out for some of the players and new players will be attracted to the market once again.So if the selection justify itself, I believe it will withstand the test of time.
Cheers,
Peterloh
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 734
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 17, 2005 - 09:37 pm: |
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Wise words indeed Peter 
And quite an insight into what fund managers and big investors can do to manipulate the market..... the mind boggles at what small, insignificant little players we all are. Not exactly a level playing field, for sure.
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1034
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 17, 2005 - 10:00 pm: |
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Nightstalker, I feel for my friends and I do not what to do to help them. I know how a game can be played and it hurts. I am fortunate enough to select shares which I think will withstand the test of time and like what Hilarious says "buy, hold and pray".I am also fortunate enough to buy most of them just breaking into stage 2.Even so, watching CPU go down 50c and $25Ks down for the day is not something to be happy about. Imagine how one feels buying on the breakout and using CFDs for the multiplier effect, it is a two edge sword.So if we keep on buying on breakout alone irrespective of the price we pay for them then I think we should reduce our exposure at such a late stage.This is only my thought and I could be wrong in saying so, but it is better to be careful.I am not computer literate and still have not embark on to using CFDs yet.
Cheers,
Peterloh
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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gohard
Member
Username: gohard
Post Number: 234
Registered: 05-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, February 18, 2005 - 11:39 am: |
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Hi Guys,
Your analysis is clear.
My thoughts now are in relation to the future of this exercise in our trading.
Having been stopped out of those shares indicated above, we get back to the decision as to whether we employ conditional stops or not.
The premium with my broker E*Trade is $20.
I have employed them on previous occasions and found that all of the results could only be accessed after the result.
I was either left wanting or glad the stop had been activated.
My choice at the time was to apply ATR as a fixed cent value as the trigger, set by the close of the day, there is no allowance to set it weekly, which may contribute to illuminating the spikes that occurred during the week.
It has ready been pointed out that maybe the stops are to tight but that leaves us with the choice of how much we really want to loose at the end of the day.
It seems we are between a rock and a hard place,so do we take the challenge posed by Ingot and make the ASX aware of our concerns!!!!
The days trading seems to defy logic,can logic be applied in these cases.
My thought now rest with what to do.
Should I buy them back at a premium?
They were my best choice at the time of buying originally, with the result I expected the growth to continue in the uptrend previously displayed on the charts.
It turned out that what I thought was completely wrong from my TA.Learning curve now in place!!
Cheers G
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gohard
Member
Username: gohard
Post Number: 235
Registered: 05-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 19, 2005 - 11:20 am: |
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Morning Forum,
I have taken the decision to re-enter the stocks MAP and GTP at the closing prices Friday.
MAP buy 3.38 SL 3.14
GTP buy 4.65 SL 4.32
My reason is that I paid the insurance for the stop loss's and they were activated under funny circumstances, I feel the upside is still in place and for this purpose I have paid the penalty to try and prove the point,also having never re-entered a stock before to confirm my convictions.
It will be an interesting period
My other replacement is GPT buy 3.88 SL 3.60
This stock on the weekly is up-trending in MACD,Twiggs, and DMS has crossed over the 25 index looking for ATH to break at 3.94 and beyond good volume for the week.
Good Trading
Cheers G
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stevo
Member
Username: stevo
Post Number: 263
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 19, 2005 - 06:56 pm: |
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All
I'm buying;
BIL
UGL
On the open price on Monday.
I am using a mechanical system that uses weekly charts. Since it is still under development I am in no rush to use it. I thought that I would try it here.
stevo
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stevo
Member
Username: stevo
Post Number: 264
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 20, 2005 - 10:13 am: |
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Also topping up on;
NLX
on Monday since I got the position sizing wrong! Too many JBM and not enough NLX - glad I'm not trading this system live.
stevo
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gohard
Member
Username: gohard
Post Number: 238
Registered: 05-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 22, 2005 - 02:49 pm: |
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Shawky,
Seems the "Kangaroo Tail" was not an indication of the Bull market sentiment continuing, stopped out of the following today.
FCL SELL 2.14 LOW 2.13
MAP SELL 3.14 LOW 3.13
RCL SELL 3.23 LOW 3.22
I will adjust the statement and set replacements by the weekend.Seems my homework is not good enough on the range of stocks in the watch list at present.
Then again I am protecting my capital which allows me to survive another day.
Cheers G
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gohard
Member
Username: gohard
Post Number: 240
Registered: 05-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 22, 2005 - 03:18 pm: |
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Shawky,
Sorry about the last post, if it got through,I had the wrong page open. The post has been deleted by me.
It should have read as below. Replacement to follow
Hilarius 1 CLH SELL 1.53 Low 1.37
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 122
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 01:04 pm: |
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Shawky and all,
I haven't been keeping up with this day by day but I have done the following trades which I would like included in my game.
Sell CPU 22 Feb 5.77
Sell GTP 23 Feb 4.57
Sell RDF 22 Feb 3.80
Buy HDR 23 Feb 1.89
Buy QGC 24 Feb 0.57
Buy BBG 18 Feb 12.06
Buy NCM 23 Feb 17.32
Can provide contract notes if required. Can anyone give me feedback whether you think this is fair - I left out ADY at 0.097 and MGX at 0.48 that I actually bought within this period to maintain a sense of fairness.
Regards,
Ken
Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.
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stevo
Member
Username: stevo
Post Number: 270
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 05:38 pm: |
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Ken
I think that trades need to be signalled in advance. I know you intentions are honourable, to include the trades that you have actually taken, but all sorts of issues crop up with this delayed approach.
For starters;
1. Trading is about being able to plan in advance a course of action, no point planning in arrears. Acting on the plan is a significant part of trading.
2. Obviously if someone wants to play games they could only pick the stocks they bought that went up.
3. All sorts of accusations could get out of hand over something that is just a game. Contract notes at 10 paces doesn't sound like a good idea.
I am using this game as a test for a system I have that I am not comfortable with - for me it's not about winning but about understanding a system better. I would be surprised if I got even close to winning this. There are some gun traders in the HofF.
I am sure that there are some rules already on this stuff somewhere.
stevo
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 423
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 06:41 pm: |
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Shawky - Have been stopped out of the following, and as I am not operating in the current untrending conditions, I have gone to cash in all of the stopped-out shares.
If I would not replace them in my real trades, I cannot do it for the sake of the exercise - they are all destined to be stopped out - the market is telling us all - just have a look. I am bearish full stop at the moment.
As the shares I retain get stopped out, I intend to hold whatever is left of $Hilarius, for when some decent shorting opportunities become apparent to dumbos like me, or the trend resumes upwards.
AMP - stopped out on 17/02/05 @ $7.26
PBL - stopped out on 16/02/05 @ $15.49
PPT - stopped out on 22/02/05 @ $62.46
WES - stopped out on 23/02/05 @ $37.39
Today I was stopped out of PBL in real trading, @ $14.95, at 10:09 hrs.
For the record, PBL opened at $15.55, dropped as if shot to $14.87, effectively removing Ingot from the equation, then closed the day at $15.50. I am piffed oss! Unfortunately I was not on the screen today - I got the message at 17:40 hrs this evening.
If a kite can just catch the breeze, how high can it go...
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 123
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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