Archive through February 03, 2005

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame 2 - 2005 » Archive through February 03, 2005

«« « Previous Next » »»

Author

Message

ingot54

Member

Post Number: 358
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 04:02 pm:

Shawky - For members who may not be aware of the Mark 2 HOF Game, perhaps ask Colin if he would put an announcement through "Forum Announcement" thread, to include the link - that way everyone would be notified. It is possible that some folk receive only narrow mailings from the forum.

If you don't have it, maybe someone else does - never be afraid to ask

bandicoot02

Member

Post Number: 50
Registered: 03-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 04:50 pm:

G-Day, Here are my picks, all long!
ADY 8.8c
ARM 28.5
JAG 16
CRK 43
TFC 26
ARU 17.5
SYP 13.5
AAM 29
EPE 15.5
TRO 15
Have used fridays closing prices.

Incredible Charts
Free Charting Software

Auto-Fit Trendlines

Trend Channels

Linear Regression
Channels

Raff Regression
Channels

Standard Deviation
Channels

nightstalker

Member

Post Number: 710
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 06:56 pm:

Just a thought:

One problem for some may be that this exercise assumes the possession of Microsoft Office / Excel. For those who don't have it, there is an excellent alternative and it is FREE! Fully compatible with Microsoft stuff, including file formats.

It is OpenOffice, and can be downloaded FREE (did I say that already?) from:

www.openoffice.org

It is a 64 Mb download, and is also available for Linux as a 76 Mb download.

Very handy to have.

Regards, NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

wambam

Member

Post Number: 44
Registered: 10-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 08:51 pm:

Hi All

The following selections have been based on the GMMA. First time I am using this technique. Experimenting with breakouts, trend continuations and strong trends.
At this stage all selections are long and based on Friday's closing price:

AWC
CGF
VRL
JBM
ZFX
HSP
PEM
GAS
VSL
WDC

Wambam

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 541
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 09:43 pm:

Hi Shawky

You really are very generous in giving so much time to this exercise, which I think has much to offer - in particular, it provides a tool to discipline people to physically keep records of their (likely) trading activity.

I've never participated in a trading competition, so, maybe for the benefit of others who have also never participated, would it be possible for you, and others who have participated in the past, to offer us some of your insights or lessons learned.

For instance:

- for those of you who also trade with real money, are the psychological differences (if any) between "competition trading" and "real-time trading" starting to reduce; i.e. has the competition helped you become less emotional/more detached when trading with real money?

- do you feel the competition has helped you identify or test new strategies

- have you been able to transfer competition-skills to your real-time trading or is it always "different" when real money is involved

Finally, do you each set goals for what you wish to achieve from the competition?

Even though I'm not participating, I look forward to reading of your successes and, hopefully, learning from your mistakes.

Keep up the good work.
Dean

PS: I hope I'm not being too serious ... maybe, the competition is more a way to get traders to chat to each other on a more regular basis?

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros

_cj_

Member

Post Number: 108
Registered: 09-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 11:54 pm:

Shawky,

Good question and something I have been thinking about in the last couple of days. I have to admit that I just threw the idea of using a stop for closing prices only in there and I cant answer how the trade is made after the stop is hit.

I think NightStalker uses stops on closing prices only so maybe he can fill in the blank there?

After thinking about it avoiding intra day fluctuations has its obvious benefits but I think poses a lot more risk because obviously, the price can finish the day way above or below your chosen price/percentage.

My view on stop losses was they were used mainly to avoid large shifts in prices (or maybe discipline?) and I wonder whether using closing day prices is good risk management?

In hindsight I think I would/will use a fixed stop at a generous distance from the current price and for LSG, being a short term trade keep a close eye on trading. Based on what I am trying to achieve a stop at 6.05 for all price activity seems reasonable.

Dean,

Great questions and I wish I could answer them right now but I might try to get back to them later. Maybe its also something for a new thread?

Peace,
-cj-

"Man is ignorant of the nature of his own being and powers. Even his idea of his limitations is based on experience of the pad. There is therefore no reason to assign theoretical limits to what he may be, or what he may do."

"All that we are is a result of all that we have thought. It is founded on thought. It is based on thought." -Buddha, The Dhammapada.

nightstalker

Member

Post Number: 711
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2005 - 07:47 am:

"I think NightStalker uses stops on closing prices only so maybe he can fill in the blank there? "

Hi CJ - I can only tell it the way I do it. In theory, if the closing price is through my stop, then I sell at the open next morning. In practice, the system I use that works for me, is that MOST (but not all) of the time, I can watch the opening next morning, and if the price bounces straight back up, I hang in there. But if the price remains below my stop or goes down further in the first 20-30 minutes, I'm out.

Sometimes this "hang off and watch" approach costs me a few extra cents off a stock, but other times it prevents me from selling when the price is going to bounce straight back up and keep going up.

I't s bit of a compromise system I admit, but it works for me, since I tend to trade more volatile stocks, fairly short-term, and run quite tight stoplosses. Overall, I'm better off doing it that way.

For the purist, using closing prices to activate stops means that if the close is below your stop, you sell at the open next morning.

The other question of course is how you set your stops. You mention percentages, but I don't do it that way. I use resistance/support levels during an uptrend, and check/adjust my stops daily. If the trend is weakening or rolling over, then I move my stop up REALLY tight. I personally don't like percentages, for two reasons:

- trends and their retracements don't follow a percentage rule, and a percentage stop can lose you a lot of money on 'normal' retracements and swings. Using the retracement and its following bounce to set the stop just under the point of bounce seems more logical to me.

- by using a percentage, you are virtually saying that you WILL lose X% of the money - the price must come down by that amount before your stop is hit. By using support levels (retrace then bounce) your stop can get hit a couple of days after you move the stop up, which may be only a very small percentage of the price.

.. if you see what I mean :-)

As they say in the USA - your mileage may vary ;)
}

Regards, NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

greywolf

Member

Post Number: 250
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2005 - 08:45 am:

Shawky,
Just for the record, while I have selected my initial portfolio of 10 stocks (they will NOT change)I am NOT purchasing anything at last Fridays close, ie I am currently 100% cash!
I will allocate the purchases and amounts over the next few days as I see how the market trends. All purchases will be notified in advance on this thread as per your guidelines. Initial spreadsheet will be emailed on Friday after close.
cheers

Keep this in mind; The Stock Market does not care what you or I think!

shawky

Member

Post Number: 466
Registered: 11-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2005 - 01:55 pm:

We're rocking and rolling now.

I've been doing a long overdue PC rebuild so feedback might be a bit slow this week.

Smallworld, Bandicoot and Wambam, welcome to HOF2. Your PA numbers for entering your trades in the spreadsheet are as follows:
Smallworld = 19
Bandicoot = 20
Wambam = 21

Thanks Nightstalker for alerting people about OpenOffice.
Greywolf,
No problem, it makes the game a little more realistic.

Ken,
There isn't anything setup at this stage for automatically managing stops. Check out my post on the spreadsheet thread regarding a column for recording your stop.

Dean
Welcome to the viewing gallery, I see you got yourself a top notch seat. I hope Hilarius is making sure that the vestal virgins are looking after you? Coffee, grapes and...
I'll try to answer your excellent questions in a little while.

regards
Shawky

greywolf

Member

Post Number: 254
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, January 31, 2005 - 06:41 pm:

Shawky,
As far as I can tell nobody has selected todays big movers MUR and HLY!
Wasn't MUR also an early star performer in the last game for our dartboard picker Koan?
cheers

Keep this in mind; The Stock Market does not care what you or I think!

greywolf

Member

Post Number: 256
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, February 01, 2005 - 08:47 am:

Shawky,
FTR - Buying at the open today H$10,000 ish parcels of VSL, MAP, ZFX, HHG, HSP, and AMP.
cheers

Keep this in mind; The Stock Market does not care what you or I think!

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 452
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, February 01, 2005 - 09:33 pm:

Greetings All

In the past my work was included with that of others in the Weinstein Group

Now I have been induced by the persistent Shawky one to make my own selections and be judged accordingly

Here they are as an illuminated scroll :-

All I need now is a special dispensation to join on 31st December 2004

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

ingot54

Member

Post Number: 363
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, February 01, 2005 - 09:43 pm:

I vote to accept Hilarius's late entry - and anyone else this week, but they must accept the penalty of starting from the closing prices of the day joining!

Who knows, that may turn out to be an advantage (Just joshin')

When the "WHY" is big enough, the "HOW" takes care of itself

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 453
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, February 01, 2005 - 10:26 pm: