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Message |
     shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 439
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 06, 2005 - 11:04 am: | 
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Happy New Year to everyone
Six months into the game and the long termers are still holding, most doing exceedingly well. Chart below:
Holdings are as follows:
1. Bandicoot...........AGY AXM IGO NST RMS SRI TGD TRO TYC URL
2. Encephalon..........CBH CRD GGL GTP HWE NDC PEM SCE SGW SSX
3. Gohard..............AMC ANN BOQ BSL CLH CTX CXP FCL ORI PBL
4. Greywolf............ALL AMP AWE BSL CCL LNN OSH RDF SLM SMS
5. Hutcho..............BBG CDO GTP GUD LNN RHC TEL UGL WPL
6. Ingot54.............CCL CEP CLH FXJ GAN HLY ILU ION NCM OST
7. Josl................ALN BSL HDR LNN LOK MTT SFC TAA TMO WMR
8. Koan................BKM CPK EXS FLK IBA MME MSH MUR PSP SYG
9. Maligas.............AMP AXA GOG ILU KRS MOS NDC OSH TAW VCR
10 Marsupial...........AWE HDR IGO NXS OEX OXR PNA RNG RSN WPL
11 Mosaic..............AWE AZZ BUY HDR HZN ICN MOS ROC TAP VOY
12 New2waix............CDO COF FAN FWD GNS JBM KRS MXI PCG SDG
13 Nightstalker........ABC ARG BRK MAP PDN PSA RDF TEN TTR UTB
14 Peterloh............AMP BPC CPU DVC HHG IAG OST PMP SRP TWR
15 Rebyte..............AGL AMP BSL CTX LHG OST QAN SPC TLS WPL
16 Shawky..............ALL APN ARQ BIL BPC CPU LNN MAP OSH RIN
17 Shubh Lahb..........ASL GGL HDR HLY MXL QBE RDF RPC TOL UGL
18 Weinstein Group.....ALL BIL CBA CCL CSL ORG SHL TAH WFT WPL
19 Lady Luck...........AGL ANN BSL LNN MIG ORI PBL PMN RIN WAN
20 All Ordinaries......XAO
21 Gjees...............AWE AZZ BSL GCL GGL ION OXR PSP TIM
22 Archer..............ARU DKN MAR MMN QGC RRS SFR TGD TRO URL
23 Rederob.............CMQ DIO KCN LUM MMN MRE OEC OXR SMY TEN
regards
Shawky
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 668
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 06, 2005 - 11:30 am: |
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Thanks for that Shawky - and a very Happy and hopefully prosperous New Year to you too. And that includes Mrs S too of course 
I see I've slipped backwards by several places - I'm going to have to pull my socks up I think. Can you make the following changes, with prices as of close yesterday?
Sell PDN @ 0.465, Buy ARQ @ 1.56
Sell PSA @ 1.20, Buy PPR @ 2.09
Sell TTR @ 0.32, Buy MCG @ 5.59
Let me know if this causes any problems I guess it's like a New Year cleanout broom - get rid of the underperformers and change to new ones that hopefully will perform better.
Mucho thankee
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 669
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 06, 2005 - 03:48 pm: |
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Hmmm - I wasn't watching the market today, and I didn't see when I posted the above that ARQ has gone up considerably during this afternoon, so to keep everybody happy, you'd better put the buy price of ARQ at today's close of 1.66
Can't have anybody thinking I was trying to get an unfair advantage now, can we? ;)
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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marsupial
Member
Username: marsupial
Post Number: 33
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 06, 2005 - 06:58 pm: |
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Thanks for all your hard work Shawky. The question is where to now with the Hilariuos H o F. If we are going to continue for say 6 more months, I would now want to amend about 40% of my holding. My portfolio peaked at 87% growth. I would have sold three or four stocks if I was physically holding them. (I actually hold 8 of my stocks -and have lightened 3 of them over the 6 months (NXS, OEX, OXR). I have topped up on three (AWE, IGO and RSN). Two remains unchanged (RGN - which has sagged badly, but is due for 2nd qtr spurt & PNA - happy to wait significant upside potential in 2005.)
Please give us some feedback on what, if anything, might progress from here.
If I had held much HDR, I would have lightened at $2.40, lightened WPL at $21
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gohard
Member
Username: gohard
Post Number: 208
Registered: 05-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 11:39 am: |
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Hi Shawky,
A happy and prosperous new year to you and the family, thanks for the continuing effort with this thread and the results posted.
The group has obliviously chose 220 companys+the all ords some of which are duplicated my question is in the spreadsheet is it possible to sort them into sectors to
a. see a comparison of the sectors chosen
b. what percentage of each portfolio contain the best sector choices allowing us to see what is presenting the best returns to the leading members
If this is not possible please ignore my thoughts as i can in my own time load the choices into IC and see for myself
Your a busy man and we appreciate all you are doing for us
Thanks G
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bandicoot02
Member
Username: bandicoot02
Post Number: 46
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 12:02 pm: |
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Small stocks which got hit hard with tax loss selling in June would have done the best.
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 440
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 10, 2005 - 09:15 pm: |
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Thanks guys
Portfolio rebalancing is allowed but active trading is discouraged in this game. So please post your changes before Saturday night.
Gohard, I'll see what I can do with respect to sector allocation etc on the weekend. To assist I have made the following observations:
1. Picking bottoms is dangerous business.
2. Not having a stop loss strategy is bad, and in conjunction with 1. above - deadly
3. ASX100 and ASX200 stocks are performing surprisingly (to me) well against the speculative plays.
4. Weinstein Group ASX100 selection taken in January 2004 performing exceedingly well (with no stop loss mind you...tutt tutt Hilarius)
5. Shawky and Weinstein group selection picked based on Weinstein existing stage 2 stocks. i.e. clear uptrends. The selections were refined giving priority to trend slope and consistency. Of course one or two exceptions were thrown in (similar to Stage 1 to Stage 2 breakout plays or turn around stocks), but mostly existing trends (for security).
6. Active trading by some participants has not improved their position.
7. The random stock selector should still be marketed as a profitable system.
8. The results might be totally different if the market was NOT in a strong uptrend.
All the best, market is humming at present, let us hope it continues to do so far a while yet. Me thinks there will be rough seas at some stage this year.
regards
Shawky
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 677
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 10, 2005 - 09:31 pm: |
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Excellent points Shawky. Your last point is especially relevant, as I think this is what would highlight the difference between the big-name stocks and the speccies. At the moment, a lot of the speccies are going up with the market, but in a falling market, they big-names would possibly be a bit more resilient. However, while the game is still rising, I'm happy to play a few speccies among my list.
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 441
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 12:00 pm: |
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Nighstalker
Your 3 changes have been implemented. Interesting results which I think re iterates points 2. and 6. above.
Selling PDN missed out on a 20% rise
Selling PSH and TTR saved your skin (point 2.)
Buying ARQ made 12% and PPR and MCG 5%
Overall change is down $1000 (possibly point 6. or simply the PDN stop too tight?) but at least losses due to stops were contained.
Still you remain up there chasing Hilarius and the Weinstein Group. As Hilarius has switched to Monthly and Yearly chart bars he has not needed to adjust the Weinstein portfolio since Jan 2004. Is that UNDER TRADING ?
Shubh, Eucephalon and Gjees held GGL through the HSP takeover so I sold their holdings at 63c (the takeover price). They have the opportunity of replacing GGL with a new stock.
Chart below:
regards
Shawky
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 442
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 01:58 pm: |
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GoHard
I have done a little bit of analysis but it does not answer all of your questions. With 21 Portfolios the analysis is quite extensive and difficult to post in an easily digestible form.
The Top 15 (of 158) Stocks (>60% flat return)
DKN OEX NXS MUR HZN RMS ALL SDG IBA TMO CPU ARQ GCL QGC MAP
The Top Sectors and stocks in those sectors were:
(Deleted - see next post)
The worst sectors were Telecommunications, Banks and Retail.
Materials was the most popular sector with 46 stocks though performance was mediocre at 26% p.a.
The spreadsheet attached provides the complete list of stocks currently held by members, relative returns, GICS sector and the count/performance of each GICS sector. I've also recirde stocks that are ASX20,50,100,200 or 300 in the list too.
I hope you can do some more analysis and report to the group.
regards
Shawky
(Message edited by shawky on January 15, 2005)
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 443
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 02:18 pm: |
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Team
I made a boo boo with a formula calculating the sector performances in the previous post so I deleted the attachment. The corrected information is provided below:
Diversified Financials__________2 417%
Hotels Restaurants & Leisure____5 119%
Commercial Services & Supplies__8 107%
Media___________________________7 103%
Energy_________________________19 88%
regards
Shawky
(attachment deleted - see post below)
(Message edited by shawky on January 15, 2005)
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 444
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 03:08 pm: |
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GoHard
I have enhanced the Portfolio Management spreadsheet to keep track of sector allocation for every portfolio. A lot of detail as the sheet now includes the following for 23 Portfolios
1. List of 10 Stocks
2. Quantities Holding
3. Price and values of each holding
4. Sector of each stock
5. Totals for each sector for each portfolio
6. Cumulative Sector allocation after sorting portfolios by performance
To summarise the best 4 performers:
Archer
8 in Materials, 1 in Energy, 1 in Div Fins
Shawky
2 each in Energy, Food/Bev, Materials then 1 each in Services, Leisure, Media and Transport
Marsupial
5 in Energy and 5 in Materials
Greywolf
2 each in Energy, Food/Bev, Materials then 1 each in Services, Leisure, Insurance and Technology
The Materials sector dominates stock selection for all portfolios.
The spreadsheet attached is a newer version of the one posted above and includes the full Portfolio Holdings sheet for all 23 Portfolios. Scroll up and down to view all of the details. It is quite extensive. The other sheets are the sector and performance summaries posted previously.
If you download this spreadsheet there is no need to download the ones posted above.
regards
Shawky
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 688
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 09:11 pm: |
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Shawky - outstanding work Thank you again on behalf of all participants.
My New Year changes were a mixed lot, as you point out. PDN suddenly shot up on no news. I hope my readjustment will result in overall better performance for my ten. Hilarius is doing quite nicely with the Weinstein group - under-trading or not. Perhaps a lesson there - pick 'em right in the first place, and hang in there
I'm going to sit tight on mine unless stops get hit - which hopefully won't be often.
Just to check - my ten should be:
ABC, ARG, ARQ, BRK, MAP, MCG, PPR, RDF, TEN, and UTB
Thanks again
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 445
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 06:53 am: |
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To be sure young man, your list agrees with mine.
You should download the spreadsheet posted above.
It has that detail in it anyway. A little study on spreadsheets by a master of high tech life saving devices should be easy.
I was contemplating re jigging mine but instead I am going to add another portfolio into the study using my most recent chart reviews and see how they pan out in the next 6 months.
This thread has gone rather quiet so I am not sure where the general populous want to take it. I am aware there are members who would like o join the game, and I think there are others who have not checked this thread in months since submitting their list.
Opinions for the way forward would be appreciated. A sample of options:
1. Continue the current game (which is closed to new applicants)
2. Freeze current holdings (stops permitted but no new orders) and commence a new game with new participants and rules.
3. The game (new or existing) could be extended to a few extra players but trades would need to be constrained. Performance would be displayed with a horizontal bar chart, maybe with only the current performance figures. Inactive participants' portfolios might be donated to the Monastery.
regards
Chris
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 552
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 08:03 am: |
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shawky
Your efforts have been greatly appreciated.
Whatever you choose to do, I am sure there will be willing participants.
If I were to again tip 10 stock for a run over the next 6-12 months, my choice would be the same.
Given I am the laggard of the exercise, wisdom should suggest I jump on different horses.
While there is no doubt a few of my selections "ran dead" - namely Chemeq and LUM - there is every chance they will improve in 2005. In any event, I own them in real life and purchased on the basis they needed up to 3 years to turn from cash burners to cash cows (so too with OEC, MMN, DIO, OXR and SMY).
There seem to be a wide range of risk participants run in this exercise. In my case it has been choosing speculative stocks that have largely NOT lived up to their stated performance timeframes (excluding SMY and OXR) and were heavily sold down by traders - I think CMQ took away the gong for worst performer in ASX200 in 2004!!!
Has been interesting and fun.
Thanks again.
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 690
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 08:10 am: |
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Heheh - I like the "young man" bit!
I got the spreadsheet, and will do my best to understand it - thank you for that.
My own thoughts on where to go from here, would be to continue the current 'game', and perhaps consider opening up a new chapter for new players, if that isn't too much work. Could your spreadsheet accept a new bunch of portfolios from new players?
This would add some new blood, so to speak, while at the same time continuing to monitor the existing ten-picks. There might be some bright new stars just itching to get on board the Hall of Fame Chapter 2, and as you have done above so nicely, there is much knowledge to be gained from analyzing the various picks, and perhaps spotting some new trends. So far, this 'game' has shown up some real surprises, like OEX, and some real downers like CMQ. Also, those stocks that are held by many in common seem to do well, e.g. RDF. All very useful information for the more active traders amongst us.
Just my 0.02 plus GST worth
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 293
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 09:51 am: |
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Shawky - I agree with NS - very reliable "service" and much hard work on your part - much appreciated.
I watch the thread, but rarely contribute.
When I joined in, I was slightly less than a novice. I am now a novice! Consequently, my selections now, for the next 6 months would not be the same, and if you have enough consensus, I would join another study for the coming six months. I have lost interest in my original selections - they performed well for a couple of months, but have declined.
I guess that demonstrates the importance of following sectors. If a new study commences, (and goodness knows you don't need the increased workload), I'm in.
PS - As an aside, I was snorkeling with master 11 this morning at 0600 hrs. Beautiful sea at Bargara, but visibility still only 2 metres at Hoffmann's Rocks following cyclone Kerry's passage south.
Slight swell, no chop. However, when we decided to give it away, due to poor visibility, we became fodder for a few large swells!
As Dads do, I managed to hold onto my son, to prevent him getting keel-hauled on the barnacles. Unfortunately I left 5 ot 6 square cms of hide on the rocks. Left leg, left arm, both knees - no thanks, Nightstalker, I will not require your fine motor skills this morning - but would have used butterfly sutures if there was anything left to draw together!
Best to stick to trading, or find a safer dive spot!
Grinners are winners - still smiling, but stinging!
(Message edited by Ingot54 on January 16, 2005)
Find a good mentor, then become one.
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gohard
Member
Username: gohard
Post Number: 217
Registered: 05-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 11:45 am: |
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Morning Shawky,
What can I say my appreciation of your skills leaves me lost for words.Congratulations on the information you have produced it has immeasurable loads of analysis to be digested.
To fully appreciate this will take time, but the results give an incite into our thinking as to what equities at the time of purchase will turn into profits certainly the continuing use of a stop loss is paramount in my mind and the result in my portfolio has saved me loosing in some cases but in others I was stopped to early paying the penalty.What will happen in the future, with the strong growth that is in place will the top sectors survive longer if there is a retracement.
Looking forward to any input from the crew as to what they see.
Thanks once again for a job well done
Cheers G
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magneto
Member
Username: magneto
Post Number: 79
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 12:00 pm: |
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Firstly, congratulations to Archer for being the "best of the best" ! 
Count me in if you have the capacity to take on newcomers!. I think I was away for work when this study kicked off and thus missed out!.
Once again, thank you Shawky, for doing a wonderful job. Perhaps some of the work associated with this study can be delegated?
Sincerely,
Mag
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 84
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 01:34 pm: |
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I am interested in participating if you are taking new participants, Shawky.
Ken
Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.
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stevo
Member
Username: stevo
Post Number: 250
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 05:51 pm: |
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Shawky
I'd join in, although others have a head start! You could start everyone from zero for the new year, but have the carried forward results somewhere. So last years gains/losses would be shown as well as this years gains and losses. Just a thought.
I would run a mechanical system that I don't trade.
stevo
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 446
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 08:39 pm: |
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Thanks Team
I think it will probably be good to start a new game, though I will keep reporting the current game as it progresses. (guys keep track of your stops on the current game, replacement stocks are still allowed).
The current game was intended to be a long term trading study so to keep this running with the minimum of effort I'd prefer the more active traders to concentrate on longer term selections so that the existing game can continue with the minimum of effort.
Ingot, there has been nothing stopping you from changing your selections. It is more important to the team that you remain active than to lose interest, so post your changes at any time.
Rederob, you are welcome to change your selections at any time or hold on tight for the rough ride ahead. Me for one can't see the sense in your approach but will be happy for your approach to be vindicated. Hopefully I might learn something.
Marsupial, same applies, change your selections if required or do so using the new game (described below).
Stevo, Ken and Magneto I think a new game is overdue so you are on the list for when it begins. My tentative plans at this stage are:
1. Run a second long term trading study with similar rules to the existing game except that brokerage will be included (to discourage over trading).
2. The game will commence Monday 31st January so all selections must be submitted no later than midnight 29th Jan. Prices will be the close of 28th Jan 2005. Please do not post your selections prior to Wed 26th Jan. I will create a new thread for the second game prior to that time.
3. There may be a bonus to main stream investors thrown in at some stage by way of leverage for ASX200 stocks, and Mosaic's idea of hedging is good so I will ponder these two idea more before the game begins. Gearing would be conservative (2.5 times for ASX200, and 10 times for indexes used as hedges consistent with practical gearing limits for long term strategies). Shorts (as long term positions) will be permitted for ASX200 stocks. GLSO for ASX200 is also on the agenda.
4. The new game might also come with exceedingly strict requirements regarding accounting and documentation. i.e. I am contemplating the idea of each having their own "Hall Of Fame Bank" spreadsheet to record trading activity. Failure to submit the report (error free by email) at the periodic due dates, or fail to follow instructions to the letter may incur fines and penalties deducted from cash accounts (just like justifiable management fees in our super accounts!). Lots of fun, a bit of spreadsheet education, hopefully some real life requirements and less work for me.
Well that's it for tonight, a few more thoughts, good suggests. If I can get the self accounting idea working there could be room for a few more members.
I suggest that members start to register their interest for the new game. First in, best dressed. At present the limit will be 30 players. Existing players will NOT be automatically included in the new game. (with the exception of Shawky (the worker), Lady Luck (Shawky's boss), Hilarius (Shawky's underwriter and financier), Peter Loh (Shawky's Planner and mentor to long term trading and candles in the dark) and Nightstalker (Shawky's medico extraordinaire and most active trader).
At this stage, based on automatic membership and recent/regular posts, the list of players for the second game so far will be Shawky, Hilarius, Nightstalker, Lady Luck, Peter Loh, Stevo, Rederob, Ingot, Ken, Marsupial, Magneto, Gohard as requests for membership to the new game.
I will create a new thread when the time comes for the second game to commence ready for receipt of stock selections, and keep the existing thread running for updates on the current game.
let the games continue. Good luck next week, I hope everyone catching the breakout (or breakdown) likely to occur in the next week or so on XJO.
regards
Shawky
P.S. Don't forget the current game is still active, monitor your stops, replace holdings to maintain 10 investments and rebalance your portfolio as necessary provided it is based on a long term trading approach. Post your reasoning where possible.
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marsupial
Member
Username: marsupial
Post Number: 36
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 09:13 pm: |
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I NOT happy. Spent 30 minutes typing long post thanking Shawky and analysing where I'm at with my ten stocks only for IC to cancel the post because I referred to the new competition numerically.
Not going to repost. I suppose the original is in cyberspace somewhere.
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 694
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 09:48 pm: |
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Shawky - thanks for including me in the new game.
Do I need a second set of ten? Some of which may of course be the same wholely or partly as the first set? Or are we going to make Chapter 2 mutually exclusive with Chapter 1? It would be interesting for those who have been in both to insist on a completely new second set of ten.... just a suggestion. What do others think?
Just stirring the pot... ;)
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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josl
Member
Username: josl
Post Number: 35
Registered: 06-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 10:14 pm: |
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Shawky
Thanks for all your incredible work
I am astounded at the effort you have put in
I wont be participating any further
& yes before you say it, Any further? Any further? my participation was minimal.
But I did present a long term list, which I thought was the original idea.
Out of that list I think TMO is the only one I still hold
Anyway, one again thank you to everyone
Found the whole thing very interesting, when I was able to follow up
Regards
John
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Final Sector Analysis Jan 14
Auto-Fit Trendlines
