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Message |
     shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 439
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 06, 2005 - 11:04 am: | 
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Happy New Year to everyone
Six months into the game and the long termers are still holding, most doing exceedingly well. Chart below:
Holdings are as follows:
1. Bandicoot...........AGY AXM IGO NST RMS SRI TGD TRO TYC URL
2. Encephalon..........CBH CRD GGL GTP HWE NDC PEM SCE SGW SSX
3. Gohard..............AMC ANN BOQ BSL CLH CTX CXP FCL ORI PBL
4. Greywolf............ALL AMP AWE BSL CCL LNN OSH RDF SLM SMS
5. Hutcho..............BBG CDO GTP GUD LNN RHC TEL UGL WPL
6. Ingot54.............CCL CEP CLH FXJ GAN HLY ILU ION NCM OST
7. Josl................ALN BSL HDR LNN LOK MTT SFC TAA TMO WMR
8. Koan................BKM CPK EXS FLK IBA MME MSH MUR PSP SYG
9. Maligas.............AMP AXA GOG ILU KRS MOS NDC OSH TAW VCR
10 Marsupial...........AWE HDR IGO NXS OEX OXR PNA RNG RSN WPL
11 Mosaic..............AWE AZZ BUY HDR HZN ICN MOS ROC TAP VOY
12 New2waix............CDO COF FAN FWD GNS JBM KRS MXI PCG SDG
13 Nightstalker........ABC ARG BRK MAP PDN PSA RDF TEN TTR UTB
14 Peterloh............AMP BPC CPU DVC HHG IAG OST PMP SRP TWR
15 Rebyte..............AGL AMP BSL CTX LHG OST QAN SPC TLS WPL
16 Shawky..............ALL APN ARQ BIL BPC CPU LNN MAP OSH RIN
17 Shubh Lahb..........ASL GGL HDR HLY MXL QBE RDF RPC TOL UGL
18 Weinstein Group.....ALL BIL CBA CCL CSL ORG SHL TAH WFT WPL
19 Lady Luck...........AGL ANN BSL LNN MIG ORI PBL PMN RIN WAN
20 All Ordinaries......XAO
21 Gjees...............AWE AZZ BSL GCL GGL ION OXR PSP TIM
22 Archer..............ARU DKN MAR MMN QGC RRS SFR TGD TRO URL
23 Rederob.............CMQ DIO KCN LUM MMN MRE OEC OXR SMY TEN
regards
Shawky
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 668
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 06, 2005 - 11:30 am: |
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Thanks for that Shawky - and a very Happy and hopefully prosperous New Year to you too. And that includes Mrs S too of course 
I see I've slipped backwards by several places - I'm going to have to pull my socks up I think. Can you make the following changes, with prices as of close yesterday?
Sell PDN @ 0.465, Buy ARQ @ 1.56
Sell PSA @ 1.20, Buy PPR @ 2.09
Sell TTR @ 0.32, Buy MCG @ 5.59
Let me know if this causes any problems I guess it's like a New Year cleanout broom - get rid of the underperformers and change to new ones that hopefully will perform better.
Mucho thankee
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 669
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 06, 2005 - 03:48 pm: |
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Hmmm - I wasn't watching the market today, and I didn't see when I posted the above that ARQ has gone up considerably during this afternoon, so to keep everybody happy, you'd better put the buy price of ARQ at today's close of 1.66
Can't have anybody thinking I was trying to get an unfair advantage now, can we? ;)
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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marsupial
Member
Username: marsupial
Post Number: 33
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 06, 2005 - 06:58 pm: |
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Thanks for all your hard work Shawky. The question is where to now with the Hilariuos H o F. If we are going to continue for say 6 more months, I would now want to amend about 40% of my holding. My portfolio peaked at 87% growth. I would have sold three or four stocks if I was physically holding them. (I actually hold 8 of my stocks -and have lightened 3 of them over the 6 months (NXS, OEX, OXR). I have topped up on three (AWE, IGO and RSN). Two remains unchanged (RGN - which has sagged badly, but is due for 2nd qtr spurt & PNA - happy to wait significant upside potential in 2005.)
Please give us some feedback on what, if anything, might progress from here.
If I had held much HDR, I would have lightened at $2.40, lightened WPL at $21
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gohard
Member
Username: gohard
Post Number: 208
Registered: 05-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 11:39 am: |
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Hi Shawky,
A happy and prosperous new year to you and the family, thanks for the continuing effort with this thread and the results posted.
The group has obliviously chose 220 companys+the all ords some of which are duplicated my question is in the spreadsheet is it possible to sort them into sectors to
a. see a comparison of the sectors chosen
b. what percentage of each portfolio contain the best sector choices allowing us to see what is presenting the best returns to the leading members
If this is not possible please ignore my thoughts as i can in my own time load the choices into IC and see for myself
Your a busy man and we appreciate all you are doing for us
Thanks G
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bandicoot02
Member
Username: bandicoot02
Post Number: 46
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 12:02 pm: |
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Small stocks which got hit hard with tax loss selling in June would have done the best.
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 440
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 10, 2005 - 09:15 pm: |
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Thanks guys
Portfolio rebalancing is allowed but active trading is discouraged in this game. So please post your changes before Saturday night.
Gohard, I'll see what I can do with respect to sector allocation etc on the weekend. To assist I have made the following observations:
1. Picking bottoms is dangerous business.
2. Not having a stop loss strategy is bad, and in conjunction with 1. above - deadly
3. ASX100 and ASX200 stocks are performing surprisingly (to me) well against the speculative plays.
4. Weinstein Group ASX100 selection taken in January 2004 performing exceedingly well (with no stop loss mind you...tutt tutt Hilarius)
5. Shawky and Weinstein group selection picked based on Weinstein existing stage 2 stocks. i.e. clear uptrends. The selections were refined giving priority to trend slope and consistency. Of course one or two exceptions were thrown in (similar to Stage 1 to Stage 2 breakout plays or turn around stocks), but mostly existing trends (for security).
6. Active trading by some participants has not improved their position.
7. The random stock selector should still be marketed as a profitable system.
8. The results might be totally different if the market was NOT in a strong uptrend.
All the best, market is humming at present, let us hope it continues to do so far a while yet. Me thinks there will be rough seas at some stage this year.
regards
Shawky
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 677
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 10, 2005 - 09:31 pm: |
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Excellent points Shawky. Your last point is especially relevant, as I think this is what would highlight the difference between the big-name stocks and the speccies. At the moment, a lot of the speccies are going up with the market, but in a falling market, they big-names would possibly be a bit more resilient. However, while the game is still rising, I'm happy to play a few speccies among my list.
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 441
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 12:00 pm: |
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Nighstalker
Your 3 changes have been implemented. Interesting results which I think re iterates points 2. and 6. above.
Selling PDN missed out on a 20% rise
Selling PSH and TTR saved your skin (point 2.)
Buying ARQ made 12% and PPR and MCG 5%
Overall change is down $1000 (possibly point 6. or simply the PDN stop too tight?) but at least losses due to stops were contained.
Still you remain up there chasing Hilarius and the Weinstein Group. As Hilarius has switched to Monthly and Yearly chart bars he has not needed to adjust the Weinstein portfolio since Jan 2004. Is that UNDER TRADING ?
Shubh, Eucephalon and Gjees held GGL through the HSP takeover so I sold their holdings at 63c (the takeover price). They have the opportunity of replacing GGL with a new stock.
Chart below:
regards
Shawky
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 442
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 01:58 pm: |
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GoHard
I have done a little bit of analysis but it does not answer all of your questions. With 21 Portfolios the analysis is quite extensive and difficult to post in an easily digestible form.
The Top 15 (of 158) Stocks (>60% flat return)
DKN OEX NXS MUR HZN RMS ALL SDG IBA TMO CPU ARQ GCL QGC MAP
The Top Sectors and stocks in those sectors were:
(Deleted - see next post)
The worst sectors were Telecommunications, Banks and Retail.
Materials was the most popular sector with 46 stocks though performance was mediocre at 26% p.a.
The spreadsheet attached provides the complete list of stocks currently held by members, relative returns, GICS sector and the count/performance of each GICS sector. I've also recirde stocks that are ASX20,50,100,200 or 300 in the list too.
I hope you can do some more analysis and report to the group.
regards
Shawky
(Message edited by shawky on January 15, 2005)
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 443
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 02:18 pm: |
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Team
I made a boo boo with a formula calculating the sector performances in the previous post so I deleted the attachment. The corrected information is provided below:
Diversified Financials__________2 417%
Hotels Restaurants & Leisure____5 119%
Commercial Services & Supplies__8 107%
Media___________________________7 103%
Energy_________________________19 88%
regards
Shawky
(attachment deleted - see post below)
(Message edited by shawky on January 15, 2005)
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 444
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 03:08 pm: |
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GoHard
I have enhanced the Portfolio Management spreadsheet to keep track of sector allocation for every portfolio. A lot of detail as the sheet now includes the following for 23 Portfolios
1. List of 10 Stocks
2. Quantities Holding
3. Price and values of each holding
4. Sector of each stock
5. Totals for each sector for each portfolio
6. Cumulative Sector allocation after sorting portfolios by performance
To summarise the best 4 performers:
Archer
8 in Materials, 1 in Energy, 1 in Div Fins
Shawky
2 each in Energy, Food/Bev, Materials then 1 each in Services, Leisure, Media and Transport
Marsupial
5 in Energy and 5 in Materials
Greywolf
2 each in Energy, Food/Bev, Materials then 1 each in Services, Leisure, Insurance and Technology
The Materials sector dominates stock selection for all portfolios.
The spreadsheet attached is a newer version of the one posted above and includes the full Portfolio Holdings sheet for all 23 Portfolios. Scroll up and down to view all of the details. It is quite extensive. The other sheets are the sector and performance summaries posted previously.
If you download this spreadsheet there is no need to download the ones posted above.
regards
Shawky
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nightstalker
Member
Username: nightstalker
Post Number: 688
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 09:11 pm: |
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Shawky - outstanding work Thank you again on behalf of all participants.
My New Year changes were a mixed lot, as you point out. PDN suddenly shot up on no news. I hope my readjustment will result in overall better performance for my ten. Hilarius is doing quite nicely with the Weinstein group - under-trading or not. Perhaps a lesson there - pick 'em right in the first place, and hang in there
I'm going to sit tight on mine unless stops get hit - which hopefully won't be often.
Just to check - my ten should be:
ABC, ARG, ARQ, BRK, MAP, MCG, PPR, RDF, TEN, and UTB
Thanks again
Regards, NightStalker
"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 445
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 16, 2005 - 06:53 am: | | |
Final Sector Analysis Jan 14