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Message |
     hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 462
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 03, 2005 - 08:51 am: | 
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For Lovers of ARQ
Support likely between 177 and 180 ???
Sell now and re-enter? Or just hang in there?
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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_cj_
Member
Username: _cj_
Post Number: 110
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 03, 2005 - 02:08 pm: |
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Nightstalker,
I am not sure where I suggested anything about not having a stop loss? Your points were also clear.
I am not sure if I was clear? My point and worry was that by using closing day prices you are not protected from large sudden movements in the market. Probably not suitable for people who generally dont follow stocks too closely; which would be my overall goal.
I get the feeling that you keep a close eye on things anyway 
Cheers,
-cj-
P.S Sorry, I just noticed that I forget to mention that I was refering to closing day prices in my original statement about protection against large movements. Sometimes I have the tendancy to talk and assume people know what I am refering to; especially late at night 
(Message edited by _cj_ on February 03, 2005)
"Man is ignorant of the nature of his own being and powers. Even his idea of his limitations is based on experience of the pad. There is therefore no reason to assign theoretical limits to what he may be, or what he may do."
"All that we are is a result of all that we have thought. It is founded on thought. It is based on thought." -Buddha, The Dhammapada.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 465
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 03, 2005 - 06:53 pm: |
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For Lovers (or Haters) of Banks
The chart depicts the fate of $ 10,000 Hilarius Dollars invested in the banks on 31st December
The impact is calculated from smoothed daily median prices. Real prices will fall either side of the median. The idea is to obtain a smoothed trend that cuts out daily noise
(For those who like noise please ignore and feel free to go back to your candles and bar charts)
The aim is to provide a comparative study of trend directions and trend strengths
Nothing in the chart should be considered to be a prediction. Changes over a day or two can significantly alter trend directions and relativities. If you want ongoing updates I will do my best to continue the chart ... if there's any interest
Something similar in IC would be most useful .. I believe some relative studies are possible in IC?
Any questions, please ask
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1015
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, February 04, 2005 - 08:14 am: |
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Hi Shawky, Hillarious & Fellow Citizens,
Just a note of thanks to Shawky and Hillarious for putting in so much effort.Most of my stocks have been picked a couple of years ago and had enjoyed a very good run and I dont see any reason why this should not continue.One of our greatest fear, a mind game, is the fear to make money or to continue to make money ie getting rid of our winners too early.The other is a fear not to lose money, that is sticking with losers and not getting rid of them.
AMP - Market Leader/ very dominant in financial services,new products will enhance future earnings/more to come/hope it will stay independent as potential & high expectations/likely take over target
HHG - Very outstanding in fund management/getting rid of pension & insurance will free up capital/just the beginning/likely take over target
CPU - Only global registry/Capital Management/market leader/more to come
IAG - Market leader in general Insurance/Capital management/likely merger with QBE/will continue on
PMP - Revamped operations/acquisition/market leader/more to come
MAP - Who says infrastructure is only a yield game/more to come through expansion & growth
MAY - We have yet to see the best yet/great potential through its new business/Capital management/more acquisitions & growth
PIR - An infrastructure/good yield and growth/ potential not realised
CLO - Higher risk/higher rewards/ price factor in Bass Straits dispute/ book full of contracts / year 2006 will be a turning point/ stop loss of 50c very important
TWR - Splitting into 2 companies. AWM & TWR , the capitalisation will be reduced.Potential for growth. higher risk
Management is very important in my selection process.
Peterloh
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1016
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, February 04, 2005 - 04:40 pm: |
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Hi Shawky,
Hillarious pointed out that I made mistake on code. PIF is correct and not PIR, please correct.
BPC to replace TWR as ii is difficult to work out after split.
BPC - a magician in Hart, it is Goodman Fielder in BPC's clothing but without the excesses.Looking forward to some dividends again, perhaps a take over target for some food giants, ie if Hart is willing to take profit which seems unlikely especially he has BPC working as a well oiled machine.
Peterloh
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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greywolf
Member
Username: greywolf
Post Number: 273
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 05, 2005 - 06:51 pm: |
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Shawky,
Keeping this exercise as realistic as possible.
How is it possible to 'BUY' a stock at the closing price?
You can post a buy at the Open price which is a future event. Taking your chance.
You can post a buy at a pre determined price and maybe hit your price which is a present event.
But buying at the close is buying on a known historical price. No risk and not realistic.
OK for a game starting point but not as an ongoing entry point.
Just a thought
cheers
Keep this in mind; The Stock Market does not care what you or I think!
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greywolf
Member
Username: greywolf
Post Number: 274
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 05, 2005 - 09:50 pm: |
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Shawky,
For HOF Game 2
BUY at the OPEN Monday H$10,000 ish parcels of APA and SFE.
cheers
Keep this in mind; The Stock Market does not care what you or I think!
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 475
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 05, 2005 - 10:16 pm: |
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Greywolf
I agree, buying at the closing price especially the after market close out is unrealistic.
However, I set the rules based on the last game and at the time was unsure if the new Portfolio Manager would be workable. Hence I needed a simple rule for setting the price to minimise workload. Also, to avoid any disagreement, closing price was and still will be used, especially if any disputes arise (one was one to many last game).
Since, most players have successfully submitted their trading Bank Sheets then I see no reason why the game can't be extremely realistic on the assumption that all are honest with their trade entries. Short term trading is still discouraged for this game.
i.e everyone is welcome to use the same price that they would achieve had the trade been executed on the market. The proviso is that one announces one's intention before hand. For example, you could set limit orders for APA and SFE and log in your bank spreadsheet the day and price they get filled rather than restrict yourself to Monday's open.
If players are in agreement, we can disband with the use of the previous closing price for trades from now on, and run with real life trading. Remember though, this will only work if players keep their Bank spreadsheet current and keep everyone up to date with their trades and most importantly their reasons for the trade. Charts and funny mentals are encouraged.
regards
Shawky
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aladdin
Member
Username: aladdin
Post Number: 1
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 06, 2005 - 09:23 pm: |
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Hi All,
I would love to join the game a week late if still possible. I am just starting out in trading, and I thought sharing the paper trading experience was a fabulous idea - thanks to everyone who is making this happen!
My picks are based on Guppy's trend trading techniques, where I am trying to "take a bite" out of a strong trend. I have paper traded a some more volatile stocks for a few weeks (eg. NMS, PDN, BWT, KDS) with some success, but have stuck to the safer (longer term) options here. My picks starting Monday (and dependent on price movements for the day) are:
APA
ALL
IAG
SBC
QBE
ARQ
SFE
AMP
VSL
MBL
Cheers, Aladdin
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 477
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 07, 2005 - 09:30 pm: |
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Stopped out on VSL today at 1.44, crying shame. GSLO fee of $30 worked on this occasion. Closing price was 1.31, no replacement at this stage.
regards
Shawky
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aladdin
Member
Username: aladdin
Post Number: 2
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 07, 2005 - 10:09 pm: |
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Yes, I bought and sold VSL in a single day (stopped out at 1.36) - so much for long term trading! One trader I know trades between 3 - 4pm so he can observe the days events and get in/out near the close price. This certainly would have paid off in this instance. Unfortunately I can't do this as I work during the day.
I have been paper trading as if I place at-market orders for the next morning, but not sure if this is the best strategy. I would be interested to know what time others place their trades, and how many people are full-time vs part-time traders.
My replacement is STO which has broken above resistance at 9.37 for the second day now (should have bought this instead of VSL).
Cheers, Aladdin.
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shawky
Member
Username: shawky
Post Number: 480
Registered: 11-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 08, 2005 - 08:11 am: |
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50% Retracement, looking for 130 region to hold for continuation and a re entry opportunity.
regards
Shawky
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 108
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 08, 2005 - 10:04 am: |
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Shawky,
I was stopped out on VSL also at 1.44 on GSLO.
Will notify replacement later.
Ken
Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.
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greywolf
Member
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