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     thommo78
Member
Username: thommo78
Post Number: 162
Registered: 05-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 05, 2006 - 03:54 pm: |  
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Didn't know where to put all this but I thought Dug's "Be and Get Real" thread was the go (it helps to be able to put all this down in a thread).
I'll attach threads of stocks i'm watching and will try to categorise them as best i can.
All watchlists have one thing in common: Share price is trading above long term moving averages which are rising. I also use money flow and trend strength filters to come up with my watchlists.
For filtering and exit I use the weekly chart, but entry criteria uses the daily chart as well. Several stocks in the watchlists may need to correct/consolidate more before an entry signal is given.
I currently hold the following cfds: HSP, JBM, MXG, OXR, RHC, RIO, SKE, SMX & ZFX so my exposed capital is fairly well diversified.
My system does not have profit targets and I will exit mainly if weekly support is breached (via trailing GSL). Each position will be held for as long as my system keeps me in.
I am happy to use cfds vs underlying equities (even for intermediate term trades) due to low transaction costs and GSL facility. I am happy to fund my positions (through margin and interest) while the bulk of my capital sits on deposit in bank at 5.6%.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1665
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 05, 2006 - 04:26 pm: |
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Welcome thommo,
you just put out what you feel like.I'll be interested in seeing how you handle cfd's so one or two trades from on to off will be educational for me.
the "contest" supposedly being run here is just Front,so settle in and tell us how it is,what's happening,why,when,stuff like that.
just don't start rabbiting about how fabulously successful you are and how ya drive some fancy car and/or have a trophy wife blah,etc or well,we'll just wait and see what happens if ya come d'Dill!!
cheers thommo78,
jr
Dig for the sake of it.
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thommo78
Member
Username: thommo78
Post Number: 168
Registered: 05-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 05, 2006 - 04:38 pm: |
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Thanks Dug,
my view is that trading cfds is no different (in terms of mindset/psycology) than trading the underlying.
a $5k position in OXR shares is one and the same as a $5k (underlying) position in OXR cfds (via $250-500 margin).
main benefits of cfds that i can see is (a) the guaranteed stop loss (GSL) and (b) much lower transaction costs.
Cheers, Tom
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1666
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 05, 2006 - 05:31 pm: |
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I've read about that system re cfd's,Tom.I just wonder how well it is kept to when you "get ya head round" a coupla wins.Like one would have all this "pressure" to put 5 grand down and get a 100,ton position on d'Sure Fire.
anyway,you're some kinda commodities broker or something aren't you tom?work for Big Agriculture or something?your posts will be real interesting.
leave you to it til next time,
jr
Dig for the sake of it.
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thommo78
Member
Username: thommo78
Post Number: 169
Registered: 05-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 05, 2006 - 09:12 pm: |
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Dug if a few wins resulted in you losing the plot and gearing yourself up to the eyeballs then that would be a problem.
All that's needed is a sceric of self discipline. If my rules tell me i can outlay $5k of capital on a trade then I will buy cfds with UNDERLYING value of $5k. I then deposit say $250 (assuming my GSL is 5% away), pay other transaction costs and leave the balance of the $5k ($4,750ish) on bank deposit.
The need for some self control to stick to my rules (even though i could in practice enter a $100k position) is a small price to pay for the other many benefits of cfds (the most obvious benefit being that i stand to lose a MAXIMUM of $5% or in this case $250).
cheers, Tom
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2112
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 05, 2006 - 11:57 pm: |
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thommo,
I am impressed by your system and like your selections.I am not confident enough to use cfds yet.I use margin lending and gearing for all my purchases except my self managed super fund.
I also use weekly filter for my trade.Besides using charts I also tend to indulge myself into fundamentals because of my outlay.I look for fallen angels coming back as these are the shares that give me the biggest returns.I look for dividends paying shares to help with my tax bill.Much as I think that energy and resources are the growth sectors, currently I have one in the sector.I also have a fairly diversified portfolio.My current holding is ABC,AWC,BLD,BSG,CSR,GNS,HSP,MRLDA,PBG,TIM,TSE,TWR. I would like your honest comments if you care to give.
My strategy is to hold for long term, I do give certain leeway to MA even they are breached if it is cause by the general market condition.However I will sell if there is any doubt on the company concerned.
With Best Wishes
PL
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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thommo78
Member
Username: thommo78
Post Number: 170
Registered: 05-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 06, 2006 - 07:21 pm: |
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Thanks PL,
I would have thought if you're confident using leverage (margin lending) then CFDs should be no prob. Might just be a case of getting your head around CFDs?
Some of your portfolio (AWC,BLD,CSR,GNS,TIM) are a tad early for my rules although CSR is not far off. MRLDA doesn't have much of a chart! all the rest look good to me (especially HSP,TSE,TWR). Also BSG which looks like it's about to brush 300 to the side.
Cheers Tom
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2118
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 07, 2006 - 01:23 am: |
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Tom,
I am guilty of getting in too early most of the time, consequently sometimes my wait is a bit long.I am also guilty of mixing fundamentals with technical analysis, as a leopard never losses its spots.So if you gather my TA is a bit "sus", I accept the verdict.
I got into MRL at $1.50 as a long term trade in July.MRL has a return of capital last week ie a return of 20c and a consolidation of shares from 10 to 8 shares, thus MRLDA is the new code for it to distinguish from MRL.I have trade MRL last year short term from 70c but only elect to change it into a long term recently because I see the potential in it.
I notice you use weekly charts. Do you use 15 weeks and 30 weeks MA as one of your guideline for entry? What other indicators do you use in your selection? I would be gladful if you care to share your knowledge with us.
Your share selection is of interest to me as it is quite diversified and your selections have good potential.Having picked SKE CPU CTX UGL,AMP a couple of years ago,I need a new direction for my share selection method.The price range of the shares you select is also around the price I am of interest.
With Best Wishes,
PL
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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thommo78
Member
Username: thommo78
Post Number: 172
Registered: 05-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 11, 2006 - 12:12 am: |
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hi PL,
sorry I haven’t replied to your post .. been a tad time poor this week
my default setting is the weekly chart overlaid with 13w and 26w EMAs (ala snifter) together with 200d EMA. I also have 11 period directional movement system and 21 period TMF.
My system has rules but I also use some discretion (for example i love patterns which require discretion). Sp must be above long term MAs and long term MAs rising. I like DMI and TMF to ideally both be rising as well. I’ll cull anything with shabby looking DMI and TMF.
Three examples (that I hold)..
I am firm believer in volume analysis. I will not enter a position if TMF is signaling distribution. Eg…
But happy to get long if TMF signaling accumulation. Eg…
That's about it. I don't use any FA (in fact i try very hard to avoid anything fundamental). I simply don't have the time nor knowledge and try to just let the chart do the talking.
Thanks PL, i'd be interested in your comments.
Tom
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2125
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 12, 2006 - 10:50 pm: |
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Tom,
I am impress by your methodical approach and also the diversity of your selections which to me have very good potentials.Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us.MCP is too thinly traded for me, but I like the TMF which is turning up.
Do you have a time frame for your trade? Do you use a weekly manual stop loss?I notice you do not use RSI or stochastic oscillators, is DMI sufficient?In future I will pay special attention to the 2 indicators you use.
The shorter period of 13weeks and 26 weeks probably give an earlier alert than the 15weeks and 30weeks MA.
With Best Wishes
PL
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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thommo78
Member
Username: thommo78
Post Number: 176
Registered: 05-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 15, 2006 - 10:33 pm: |
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