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     i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 246
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 05, 2003 - 09:21 pm: |  
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Friends, Romans, Countrymen
Lend me your ears !!!
You may think that the FTSE is on its last legs ...
That AMP is doomed ...
But amidst the cold damp February fog of England there are little glimmers of hope here and there ...
Take Barclays for example ...
Between 356 and 350 it is in Quartile 4 and at least temporarily in a small rebound ...
Last Sale 356 on my D4F screen at 10:15 pm AEST (11.15 am in London)
A bounce to the top quartile could put a penny in a pocket or two ...
Silly Old Claudius (loves to spend a penny)
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 247
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 05, 2003 - 09:27 pm: |
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By the way I take it everyone who does not have intraday individual FTSE stock figures from another source knows about this one ...
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=&k=c1&t=5d&s=barc.l&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=l&x=o n&y=on&w=on
Neat comparisons of individual stocks to the FTSEs and the DOW
Silly Old Claudius
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twoscreens
Member
Username: twoscreens
Post Number: 12
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 06, 2003 - 07:40 pm: |
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Greetings to our Magnanimous and Eminent Emperor
What wondrous tidings you bring of the 'ol dart. Indeed BARC has arisen to greater heights 372.5 as I write. May your conquests be even more bountiful.
Your humble follower
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mercati
Member
Username: mercati
Post Number: 18
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 08, 2003 - 10:03 pm: |
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Hi i_claudius,
Great to see traders seeking active trading grounds outside of our domestic markets. The Euro markets certainly present many great opportunities to the active trader.
I've posted some charts below of BARC with some key levels to look out for in the future. Outlined are short and long-term downside levels and short-term upside levels. By no means am I suggesting that BARC will make either minor or major highs or lows at any of the outlined zones mentioned. However, they are useful to assess potential risk:reward as well as profit taking levels.
DOWNSIDE
- - -
Chart 1
Long-term log scale chart (dating back to 1986). Price action negated the down-trend line mid 2002.
Chart 2
Monthly chart outlining long-term retracement levels. There are two "zones" that are brought to our attention:
280/97 - 61.8% retracement from 62.88 low/632 high; 78.6% retracement from 206.75 low/623 high.
184/86 - 78.6% retracement from 62.88 low/632 high; 100% price swing using 632 high/330.75 low/487.25 lower high
Chart 3
Weekly chart containing 5 years of price history. Key confluence levels:
286/88 - 1.272 downside projection from 632 high/360 low; 1.272 downside projection from 487.25 high/330.75 low.
Chart 4
Daily chart with 1 year of price data. The key confluence level on this short-term chart is:
285/89 - 100% price swing using 487.25 high/367 low/410 lower high; 100% price swing using 410 high/319 low/376 lower high
Combining all of the above, there is a huge amount of confluence between 280/97, particularly between 85/89. Would be surprised to see the market fall through this level if it is reached, however, if it does, then the next downside target of 184/86 would be expected to be hit.
UPSIDE
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Chart 5
Daily chart with just 6 months of data. There is only one key level outlined at this stage and that is:
403/04 - 50% retracement from 487.25 high/319 low; 100% price swing using 319 low/376 high/347.5 higher low (unconfirmed)
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BARC is in a down-trend, that is why I have focused more on the downside than the up. Should price action offer any indication in the near future that the potential for further upside exists, I will re-visit upper levels at a later stage.
Hope this has been of interest to you and other traders.
Regards,
Mercati
- Never Fight the Markets -
Charts courtesy of prophetfinance.com (sorry about the size)
Bulls and Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 252
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 09, 2003 - 02:08 am: |
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Hello Mercati
Thank you for putting Barlcays into such clear perspective ... how I hope you are right that I will be able to buy at or near 2 of Her Majesty's euro shy pounds.
I am more inclined to believe that this pleasure will be denied me in the short run given the respect accorded to the September 2002 low.
What are your views on that?
Next resistance ... the November high?
Once past that ... where to?
Your Effervescent Emperor
Claudius
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mercati
Member
Username: mercati
Post Number: 19
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 09, 2003 - 07:01 am: |
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Hi Claudius,
Yes, BARC has respected its Sep lows, however, the more that this level is tested, the more that I can see it being broken. When this occurs, I would imagine that there will be a great deal of momentum backing the bears.
As for upside, the first resistance is that of which I've outlined above at 403/04. This will only be confirmed if Friday's low becomes a new pivot low and the 376 high is exceeded. The November high would be the next likely retest level. Until I see further indication from price action that BARC is moving up, I am hesitant to calculate any further upside levels.
I've posted a chart below for your interest, it is a weekly 2-bar Gann Swing chart:
Regards,
Mercati
Bulls and Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 253
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 09, 2003 - 08:04 am: |
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Hi Mercati
Nothing like a chart in red, white and blue to stir the blood !!
Wider still and wider shall thy bounds be set !!
You are indeed an Emperor's friend.
To be truthful I share your concern for this share which has all the status of a faded family jewel since it was bequeathed to my wife.
Sadly there are highs that could have been enjoyed and she seems little consoled by my advice of wondrous lows ahead.
I will wipe her tears with your chart as we drink a toast to the Board of Barclays.
I keep saying we should switch our loyalties to the Queen Mum's Bank ... the dear old Royal Bank of Scotland ... but I suspect you have equally gloomy prognoses for that stock and the FTSE ?
Let me nevertheless thank you for the work you have put into presenting your charts ... your poor old Emperor is touched by your concern ... distracted as he is by the problems of his ever less governable Empire.
He is likely to spend a day or two brooding about Barclays while washing away his worries with a pretty little port.
He plans also to revisit his quartiles, sack his soothsayers ... and relieve his frustrations with a little wanton pillage, plunder ... and who knows what?
Are there muffins still for tea?
With Best Wishes
Claudius
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 254
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 09, 2003 - 08:07 am: |
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Also Mercati
It seems your Emperor has broken Weinstein's golden rule ...
Never trade a stock that is still in Stage 4 ...
It won't have been the first time
Silly Old Claudius
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mbes
Member
Username: mbes
Post Number: 10
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 09, 2003 - 06:40 pm: |
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Claudius,
Why don't intraday trade BARC via DealForFree? Its intraday moves are always at least a couple of percent and you don't need to predict longer term trends.
Regards,
Mbes
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 257
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 09, 2003 - 08:31 pm: |
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Hi there mbes
Thanks for the suggestion ... I did actually dip my toes in the water this week just ended with BARC CBRY and RBS.
Also BLT and RIO for a little aussie flavour.
You are right ... BARC has nice fluctations that seem fairly predictable.
The only thing I miss on D4F charts is volume ... I don't suppose you know the best and cheapest source of live charts with volume?
I've tried Bigcharts and Yahoo but there seems to be at least a 20 minute time lag.
I have no argument with the prices or speed at D4F ... judging by the way they maintain almost exact timing with the ASX ... so I presume the same is the case with UK stocks.
Volume would just make it so much better.
You sound like a person of experience. Maybe you would like to apply for a senior position in the Imperial Treasury.
Your Devoted Emperor
Claudius
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catswhisker
Member
Username: catswhisker
Post Number: 8
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 10, 2003 - 08:22 am: |
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Hail Claudius,
Most BBs here provide some form of charts. Here are two for you to look at and try: http://www.advfn.com/ and http://www.moneyam.com
The ADVFN site provide volume on all instruments - so select say, BARC with Bar chart and select volume, as an indicator. Thats how it works!
Alternatively, you could take a look at Sharescope here: http://www.ionic.co.uk/ There's a 30 day free trial to download - the subscription costs seem reasonable to me. The software is generally well regarded, but I don't use it myself.
If its data you're after and you want to roll your own or you have some other software package that excepts inputs csv file format (which must be all of them), then try here: http://www.finexprestel.com/pi.html
I hope this helps.
Regards
CW
PS Don't get involved on BB forums over here - especially the free one on ADVFN - its not really edifying stuff IMO
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mbes
Member
Username: mbes
Post Number: 11
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 10, 2003 - 11:37 am: |
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Claudius,
As long as you are dealing with big liquid stocks, I fail to see the relevance of volume in intraday trading, as opposed to position trading.
I sometimes wonder whether I am the only one who sees these things, or whether I am missing something that everyone else knows!
Consider this example: When using D4F I consider 1000 shares of CBA as a trading unit, ie AU$25k (AU$1.25k margin). BARC is approximately 3.75 pounds, so the equivalent trading unit is about 2400 shares. It should be possible, on most trading days (evenings), to nett at least 10 points from intraday moves. Here is the arithmetic: 2400 * 0.10 * 2.8 = AU$672.
So you see, the return should be over 50% of margin. Of course, if the trade goes against you, you lose a large percentage of your margin, but that must be accounted for in the money management part of your trading plan.
Regards,
mbes
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