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Author Message  fish Member Username: fish Post Number: 1 Registered: 05-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, May 10, 2003 - 03:11 am:     Hello all, Firstly, let me introduce myself. My name is Andrew, but I think I'll be fish for the purposes of this forum. Unfortunately there do not seem to be too many options traders on the boards, but maybe things will change, at least until this much anticipated bull makes its way into the arena. But until then, thought I might give you all my two cents, and the puts I have in as of end of trade today. As mentioned by our venerable guru Colin in his trading diary, the banks look set for a bear run over the short term, and it is also my belief that the all ords will remain soft for a while. For this reason, I've chosen put options on CBA and WBC. I would have included ANZ, but as they're going XD on the 16th, decided to hold off - There will probably be a bit of a run in the lead up to its dividend issue. Unfortunately, this is my first post, and I haven't figured how to post charts yet, but give me some time (next week's post - 8P). In short, both CBA and WBC have shown resistance points, and volume has tapered in end of week trading. Both prices have now crossed below their MA, and Westpac's directional movement has now crossed into negative territory - I suspect Commonwealth will follow. SS and MACD are doing the right things, and after putting at $26.90 (CBA) and $15.45 (WBC) I'm expecting to exit at $25.60 and $14.70 respectively in mid to late next week. Finally, to make the most of the market, I'm also suggesting put options on AGL. The energy sector is also exhibiting a possible push into bear territory, although it still has not broken resistance as strongly as the financials. Nevertheless, there is a downward trend there, and AGL's chart prompted me to put at $11.10. It's directional movement also crossed over on Thursday, and the SS is moving to what looks like a nice deep trough after peaking well above the oversold level. I'm tentatively suggesting an exit at around $10.57, with a stop at $11.30-35, depending how game you are. Sorry about the lack of charts. I promise that will be the very next thing I learn to do. Happy trading! (Message edited by fish on May 10, 2003)  bundy Member Username: bundy Post Number: 45 Registered: 03-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, May 10, 2003 - 10:34 am:     Hi Andrew, Oh, there are a few of us around - we are a rare and endangered species - even more so now that DFF is offering leverage with no worry about volatility and time decay. Just a comment on your PUTS in the banks. I don't know what your risk profile etc is - but I'd be very wary of taking more than 2 positions in any one industry sector - no matter how juicy it looks - and especially the banks. Why? Simply because you would be overexposed in 1 individual industry sector. Secondly, you're trading against the trend. Sure - the banks were in a long-term decline - and they have softened in the last two weeks, but in the month and a half prior to that - they were steaming ahead and it's hard to bring that momentum to a sudden halt. The banks have been overbought for ages and everyone knows they are due for a tumble - but they keep on riding higher. You could have taken out PUTS a month ago on the same reasoning - and blown your dough. In relation to AGL - it is one of my favorites - and apart from some fundamentals in the last few days - it is a strong uptrending stock - you are really trading against the strength there. I'll be looking for an entry signal to go long on Monday - and I'll be very surprised if I don't get it - from the looks fo the candle on Friday. --- Bundy  uturn Member Username: uturn Post Number: 391 Registered: 09-2002 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, May 10, 2003 - 02:14 pm:     Hi All, Bill Wormald has some great Trend Tracker charts on his website: World Indices and also Aus sectors, including Financials and Energy. http://www.trendsandtripwires.com/charts.htm Cheers, uturn  fish Member Username: fish Post Number: 2 Registered: 05-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, May 10, 2003 - 04:13 pm:     Hi Bundy, Thanks for the input, love your moniker too! Actually, I have a confession to make - I trade through DFF, but have worded this post to correspond a little more closely to options traders, just because there is nowhere else on the site that would deal with bear movements... And looking back at my post my wording seems a little obvious. As for my picks, everything you've pointed out is very true - but I'm talking very short term here. True that if you were looking to go long-term with AGL, it would be very silly to go short. My only worry is that candlestick - it does appear that the buyers have regained control after that slide, but at a highish 3.26m volume, I'm guessing it's long-termers buying in while it's looking cheap. Will that push the price up next week? Not sure, but I'll be looking for that entry signal too - only for me it will be an exit, if you get my drift. As for the banks, I'm not looking to bring their momentum to a grinding hault - just to slow them down for a couple of days. Personally I wouldn't touch the banks long-term at the moment. Things are just too difficult to tell. Although, if the market jumps out of this bear run, and the banks don't follow, I'd be looking for some longer-term trends. Thanks for your input, Fish. PS. I've held AGL in my LT investment portfolio since the dereg of the energy sector. (Who wouldn't? There's nothing else in the industry worth my time)  spider Member Username: spider Post Number: 613 Registered: 10-2002 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Sunday, May 11, 2003 - 12:30 pm:     Yo fish, I posted these charts for you. Short time frame, daily charts, as these seemed to fit the feeling of your post. This is the right spot to post your thoughts, as DFF is a form of derivative. "Normal is getting dressed in clothes that you buy for work, driving through traffic in a car that you are still paying for, in order to get to a job that you need so you can pay for the clothes, car and the house that you leave empty all day in order to afford to live in it."   - Unknown

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