Archive through September 23, 2006

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julles

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Post Number: 1724
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Monday, July 17, 2006 - 01:37 pm:

Hello Tryhay, we are right on support with the xao and possibly heading for a head and shoulder pattern on the xjo.

A break of support and down we go. The charts I think speak for themselves. I'm just watching like a hawk...

XAO

XJO

ken

Member

Post Number: 400
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 01, 2006 - 12:14 am:

Hello all,

I've been looking at log charts of the XAO and its sectors.

In the XJO there is a 3yr plus parallel channel with the current activity at the bottom of the channel.

However with the XMJ, the recent rapid rise from May last year forms its own channel (marked A) and the price action has dropped below it and retested it and retreated again. This may suggest that XMJ could head for the bottom of the main channel at about 8500 from the current 10000.

What I take out of this is that the XJO may yet have another rise in it, which may not be driven by XMJ. Or of course the XJO channel may be broken to the downside.

Comments please?

XJO

Trade with the trend, not against it.

The trend is the direction of the 22ema line (Elder)

mosaic1996

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Post Number: 1344
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 01, 2006 - 09:19 am:

ken,

XMJ is a rather large subset of XAO/XJO. It is very unlikely that they will head in opposite directions.

The markets look like they are consolidating to me, but you can never be sure.

I suspect that the previous XMJ leaders will lead the way forward again after a period of consolidation. In other words they are being rerated to a different long-term growth rate (trendline gradient). This takes the form of an intermediate term much steeper channel as we have seem/are seeing.

XMJ is a fairly large and diverse group. It may be worth looking at the subsets within this index to help you to get a clearer picture.

Cheers,
Mosaic

tryhay

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Post Number: 245
Registered: 09-2005

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Votes: 0


Sunday, August 13, 2006 - 11:57 am:

Couple of weeks since any comment on the XAO

Volitility has been replaced by uncertainty ~ the XJO is currently strung out (streached across bricks).

Some pundits are discussing A, B, C correction and if the current support fails then ~4700 is looking rather attractive (can not see the current resistance failing tomorrow but perhaps the end of the month?) } Some of the indicators still not looking +ve (in fact the list is long and distinguished).....

I have a feeling that 4700 looks pretty good -
Daily chart

A Longer term view:

Any any advance on 4700 Hmmmmmmmmmmmm ??

ingot54

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Post Number: 1573
Registered: 05-2004

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Votes: 0


Sunday, August 13, 2006 - 12:26 pm:

Good morning Tryhay

The XAO has been trundling along under the 22 day ema for awhile. Recently it broke through, but retraced.

Looking now at the OBV - it seems to be saying "Distribution - Go short" despite the tired, slight uptrend in the XAO chart recently. We are just not seeing any higher highs / higher lows.

This is the chart of a very tired old bull. he just will not lie down, but neither does he have the energy to express virility any more.

On the other hand, the bear is really just sniffing around yet. When he has played with the bull a little, he will let out a mighty growl, sending the bull packing. We have not really had this confrontation yet.

The bear lives in the cave at number 4700, and until he gets home, he will not allow the bull any peace.

xao

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

ingot54

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Post Number: 1574
Registered: 05-2004

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Votes: 0


Sunday, August 13, 2006 - 01:06 pm:

Weekly 3 - D View ...

xao_weekly

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

exsel

Member

Post Number: 1
Registered: 08-2006

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Votes: 0


Monday, August 14, 2006 - 05:36 pm:

Hi,

This is my first posting in this forum.

It seems XAO is tracing out a rising flag for the past few weeks using predominantly open/close. We may be bracing for further downward action.

Any comments.

hailoh

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Post Number: 177
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 15, 2006 - 08:04 pm:

G'day Excel and welcome. You're amongst friends. Check the ASX-short term (strictly TA) thread for bear flags. You'll find some good support there.

kathyb

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Post Number: 102
Registered: 08-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 22, 2006 - 02:54 pm:

Not being a pessimist or anything

but is this still not a bearish wedge until breakout ?????

xjo daily 22/8/06

kate

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Post Number: 344
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 22, 2006 - 05:56 pm:

Kathy,

Technically, its still a bearish wedge.
However, there was a lot of interest in selected mining stocks today so it will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days, the wedge may well fail. Wonder if Stickman knows the success/failure rate for wedges?

Regards
Kate

archer

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Post Number: 1644
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 22, 2006 - 07:21 pm:

Kath and Kate
I think the last pattern would be better viewed as an
ascending triangle which broke up on LARGE vol,tested the
break the next day and now moving up to test the last high
Note that both patterns lasted 30 days
xao

captain_chaza

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Post Number: 2095
Registered: 02-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 22, 2006 - 07:45 pm:

Crikey!
I haven't seen a bear for ten years!!!
capn

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

kate

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Post Number: 345
Registered: 04-2005

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Wednesday, August 23, 2006 - 08:41 am:

Archer,
Do you mean it is a triangle in retrospect and the breakout was the determining factor ie it could have been either an ascending triangle or a bearish flag/wedge until that point (the breakout)?
Can you explain the significance of the 30 day repeating pattern?

Many thanks
Kate

archer

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Post Number: 1645
Registered: 11-2002

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Wednesday, August 23, 2006 - 10:09 pm:

Kate
Until the 9th August i had a slightly upsloping channel
drawn on my chart but once you have 3 or more days with
the same highs then that level should be seen as significant and the top channel line was changed to horizontal at the 4990 level
30,60,90days can often mark breakout days or change of trend days

villageidiot

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Post Number: 6
Registered: 06-2006

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Tuesday, August 22, 2006 - 07:30 pm: