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     jimdene
Member
Username: jimdene
Post Number: 109
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 10, 2007 - 01:03 am: | 
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Admit it to me, you people are just jerkin me of, sidetracking me, giving me a bit of "Emperor's new clothes" , anything that leads me away from making money.
I didn't need this forum or the revered author Mark, whatever his name is and his phychological clap trap to tell me to just trade xjo when it is going up and get out when is turns down. I lost heaps trying to pick more stocks heading up than down, because that seems to be what this forum is all about, when it is obvious that the all ords and ASX 200 do it for me. Just trading xjo I have made 13% in the last week and for the first time, when I exit, expect to be ahead. Lets hear it from you, "didn't you know that"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 750
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 10, 2007 - 06:37 pm: |
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Hi Jim
Glad to hear you are making money.
Not sure what the rest of the post was alluding to but 13% in a week, thats great.
Are you using cfd's to trade the index ?
Cheers
Just remember , sometimes sh_t happens
INCREDIBLE OFFER - only $12 USD per month
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2403
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 11, 2007 - 06:21 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer #59
If you adopted a % scale on the "y" axis
Would your tables be turned around?
I think so but it is only a hunch!
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 919
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 11, 2007 - 07:06 pm: |
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Hi Captain.
I don't understand the question. On the "AORD momentum" chart, I'm plotting the weighted average of the daily All Ords Advance-Decline data for the last 150 trading days.
Each day I count the number of advancing stocks, subtract the number of declining stocks, and store the value. When I have 150 of these values I plot the weighted average of them.
In what way would you like me to transform the data before plotting it? Multiplying by 100 isn't going to change the shape?
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2414
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 11, 2007 - 09:42 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer 59
I am not sure what you are supposed to read into these Charts
I noticed Officer Clever Kenny having a look so I thought I'd better check it out also
What are these charts designed to show?
If they are a comparative study then I just assumed it would be best displayed as % charts
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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jimdene
Member
Username: jimdene
Post Number: 110
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 12, 2007 - 01:57 am: |
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"I have lost heaps trying to pick more stocks heading up than down, because that seems to be what this forum is all about, when it is obvious that the all ords and ASX 200 do it for me."
Yes Mark using cfd's and trading via CMC like a dog with bone, I will retrieve some of my losses and can only do so by leveraged trading, it isn't worth my time fiddling about with individual stocks, I let my managed super funds do that.
I do sometimes get frustrated with clever dicks who know what they are talking about, but yours truly hasn't a clue what they are on about, hence the reference to "Emperor's new cloths"
As an investor during, was it 1987 or was it 89, I well remember my wife and I setting off for a holiday down to the East of Victoria, when over the radio came the news of the Market crash. Needless to say it ruined the holiday for us, our finances vastly reduced, but it didn't take long for it pick up again.
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 920
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 12, 2007 - 11:43 am: |
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Captain, my charts are intended as a look under the bonnet, to spot the oil leaks and rattling tappets, before the wheels fall off 
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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rig
Member
Username: rig
Post Number: 2
Registered: 04-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 12, 2007 - 01:31 pm: |
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Fellow sailors,
It has been a long time since the sailors of the north seas have experienced a serious down pour, let alone catastrophic cyclone. However, if you are an advocate of the theory of global warming you may believe that the probability of a serious cyclone hitting is on the increase (many chart readers have yet to see conclusive evidence - it is difficult to measure a rise in sea level on the open seas, though a changing tide swings ones boat).
Whilst the temperature continues to rise and sailing in a northerly direction has been the best in years, I thought it about time I dusted off my charts and prepared some contingency plans in the event of wild weather (after all it is cyclone season in Qld).
I would like to investigate the possibility of hedging my bets during times when storms are brewing and the intensity and duration of such events in unknown.
Below is one route that I know of. It would be great if the experienced south seas sailors could provide some alternative and perhaps safer and faster returning passages.
One mothership offering her services is the "IG Express" (note there are other similar ships offering similar voyages). You simply park your vessel in her hold and hitch a ride on the winds riding the ASX200 current. For the purchase of a single ticket heading south, she charges $3500 and 2 degree tax for getting on and off. However, she will give you a return of $25 for every degree one heads south, and she even offers interest (3% below the cash rate) based on the number of over night stays.
As an example, say I had purchased marina berths in north facing anchorages to the value of $600k, I could insure them against storm damage by buying passage on the "IG Express". Say our weather charts told us to head south when the ASX200 current was at 6000 degrees. To cover a passage to waters 20% cooler (a well known safe harbour is located at 4800 degrees), we could buy 4 tickets for $14k. At a potential return of $100 for each degree travelled south, if we found anchorage 1200 degrees south we would receive $120K (minus $400 tax, plus over night interest dependant on how long our voyage took - calcs attached at bottom). Purchasing 4 tickets would possibly equalise any similar fall in value of or surviving north anchorages. (Of course as sailors we must refer to our charts to determine when we get on and off the mothership and when we sell our anchorages).
This appears to offer a reasonable passage south and allows me to insure my north facing anchorages for a forseen change in weather. However, this method does not protect me from unpredictable wipe outs like a tsunami, which could potentially stricken my vessel and reduce the value of my marina berths by 20% or more overnight.
I have no doubt there are other favourable "options" that "warrant" my attention......
Regards,
Rig.
Calcs
20% of ASX 200 at 6000 = 4800 (a drop of 1200 points)
20% of 600K = 120K (600K was used simply for ease of calcs)
120K / 1200 points = $100 / point
To cover potential downside of $100/point one would need to purchase 4x $25 contracts at a total cost of $14K + $400 (2 points in and 2 points out).
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2419
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 12, 2007 - 11:48 pm: |
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Ahoy (Swifty) Rig
Are you saying that for the small sum of only $14,000
I could WIN or (loose) $600,000
Say if I get it all wrong /get swamped by a rogue wave for example
Is that (-$600,000) the worst scenario or could it get even worse than that if I fall asleep at the helm?
(Which I often do!)
Salute and Gods Speed
PS Safety at Sea is Paramount to this Captain
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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rig
Member
Username: rig
Post Number: 3
Registered: 04-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 13, 2007 - 12:47 am: |
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Captain,
It is my understanding that in the provided above example a sum of $14,000 riding short would hedge against a potential (hypothetical) 20% loss on a $600,000 long share portfolio.
ie $14000 exposure short would offset $120,000 in losses on long positions (assuming they dropped by 20%).
This is based on the assumption in a rapid swift downturn a portfolio of long positions would track downwards in similar fashion to the ASX200 (of course if you are good at your tech analysis and have the confidence/fortitude to follow your plan then it is possible that some of your long positions will weather a sudden ASX200 reversal - hence not all your stops are hit, and you may even profit from such a move. Personally I am looking for ideas on how to cover my arse in the event of a sharp correction.
Of course you need to have a stop in place for the short position in case you are wrong on your analysis in the beginning. The timing of such a short position is where I see the major difficulty of such a hedging/balancing act (an act likely to be to late to implement timely if say a 911 occurred). Hence, my request for other ideas/strategies successfully used by others previously.
Regards
Rig.
ps whats this swifty business?
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2420
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 13, 2007 - 07:44 am: |
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Ahoy Rig
I think that $14,000 to insure against a $120,000 loss is a bit rich
Is that ~ 11% ?
I also think that if your "short" set-up goes wrong and the market for example keeps gaping up to say 20% NNE
Then you could be looking at a loss of 20% ($120,000) + $14,000 costs
Sailing in both directions at the same time is not the swiftest (hence Swifty) manoeuvre a skipper can make at sea
I agree with you that Calm waters won't capsize a boat. But no matter how far those glassy seas seem to stretch, a captain must remain vigilant for the storm that is sure to blow up eventually. So, too, a skipper must not be lulled into complacency by periods of prosperity, no matter how long. A steady hand on the tiller is always wise.
The best way to steer your ship is with the mindset that foul weather's just over the horizon. If you have prepared yourself, and your money, for the inevitable next fall in market fortune, you'll be in much better position to ride out the tempest without being washed overboard
Being defensive doesn't mean you have to haul your sails in completely
If you are lucky and you position your stops correctly or as near to correct as possible you will find that ONE by ONE you will be stopped out like magic
I say lucky as I have noticed that in most "Crashes" I have witnessed over the years there has always been some tell-tale sign /warning
BTW
A 20% loss (off the top) is a buying opportunity of 25%(Off the bottom)
Maybe the $14,000 would be best spent here?
Maybe it's just me but I hate "Shorting" for its Open ended exposure and feel that Shorting on Margin is MADNESS
I only short for Fun with little (short term) Warrants where my financial Exposure is a closed deal and not an open ended contract
Salute and Gods speed Able-Seaman Swifty
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1808
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 13, 2007 - 09:59 am: |
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Rig
1 contract = 147,500 dollars (5900 X 25)
so 4 contracts would just about cover a 600k portfolio
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rig
Member
Username: rig
Post Number: 4
Registered: 04-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 13, 2007 - 09:24 am: |
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