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     kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 575
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 28, 2007 - 12:40 pm: | 
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Smallworld,
Your comments were very interesting, the next horizontal support(XJO)is at 5680(approx)about 100 pts lower than your channel so it will interesting to see if it will hold.
When I finally got access to Commsec it was interesting to see the relatively low volumes, lots of fear and stop losses triggered but it doesn't look like the big players have sold up. I only had LHG anyway which is going up again now anyway(along with the gold price). I noticed that Greenspan mentioned the R word as well, so gold will be quick to recover.
It will be worth keeping an eye on the Hang Seng today. If it doesn't repeat yesterday's performance we will possibly only finish down 100-120 points today.
Regards
Kate
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moleman
Member
Username: moleman
Post Number: 244
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 28, 2007 - 06:53 pm: |
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Hi Kate
www.billcara.com says that 900 of 1400 stocks in China traded limit down on the Shanghai Exchange on Tuesday. He also recommends www.adr.com as a free resource to learn more about China. This guy is recommended by Forbes and Barron's - he also quotes the IC trading diary. Can be interesting...
cheers
MM
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 578
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 28, 2007 - 09:21 pm: |
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Moleman, thanks for the links.
I remember reading somewhere that there is a lag phase of at least 6 months from the time the first indicators show a downturn in housing to see a downturn in durable goods. I guess with the US economy being so dependent on the property market it isn't surprising there will be a snowball effect. Greenspan's remarks may have merit.
I tried the ADR site, found it quite difficult to digest on first look so will try again tomorrow when my brain is functioning. I know so little about China and feel I'm at a disadvantage.
Regards
Kate
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1714
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 01, 2007 - 05:41 am: |
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I have a complaint:
On Friday 16th February at 8:43pm Captain Chaza posted in the "Yen is the currency to watch in 2007" thread the following:
Prepare for Anything < 28th Feb 2007
Some big news coming out of Wall St then
It's being typed up as I speak
That's all I know!
Let's hope somebody makes a mistake and talks in bed,Hey?
ie: Pillow Talk
I suggest we all keep a vigilant eye on the charts from now-on and into the 28th Feb,!
My taxi driver's wife is seldom wrong!
Given that the forecast was as close as 10 days before the event, I would like to know how come the forecast was NOT more accurate?
For goodness sakes Captain - you were a day late!
Luckily I have been out of the market since January, expecting this event.
When the bottom is confirmed, I am cashed up and ready.
Meanwhile, where's the oil - time to lube the wheels of the shopping trolley.
And Captain, that's the last time I listen to you - get it right - how can anyone trust you if you get the crash wrong by 24 hours?
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 534
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 01, 2007 - 07:07 am: |
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Inertia seems to providing a bounce here ~ perhaps a dead cat bounce? DOW up to 12267 this-morning....
FWIW DOW is looking sus: particularly if the next support gives up the ghost - not far then til the 200D_SMA. Check the CCI trace.& the increased volume on the down day.
Perhaps the xao will do the same today (particularly as china has bounced as yesterday as well) - I don't see this as a buying opportunity just yet! Perhaps time to bail from some soon not to be in profit candidates. CF Yogi's weekly thread post
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 580
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 01, 2007 - 08:04 am: |
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I'm staying out. I couldn't believe the finance report this morning, the worst US housing figures in 13 years are released and the market goes up 55 points. It may reduce the likelihood of another interest rate rise in the short term but what does it say about the mid to long term?
FTSE and Europe down, not sure how much of that is due to the Airbus debacle, think its better to wait a couple of days to get a better picture.
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julles
Member
Username: julles
Post Number: 1760
Registered: 01-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 02, 2007 - 12:42 am: |
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Ingot I'm with you in the complaint department, we shall petition together.
Captain gosh, who's sailing this ship anyway. I managed to use my thumb on short's today, but goodness a little more warning in the future would be appreciated please.
..... Braveheart let go of the Ropes .....
Good luck to us all.. Julles
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2480
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 04, 2007 - 05:36 pm: |
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I Humbly apologise Sea-Cadet Officers Braveheart and #54 if I disappointed you
BUT
it seems to me you have both forgotten my concept of the Global Exchange and are still carrying a lot of Sweet Fundamental Baggage onboard
First of all The world of The Global Exchange is a flat world
Not Round!
You only need to refer to some really Long Term charts and you will see that we can sail NE for ever
More like the concept of an "expanding universe" than the silly FA idea of a spherical world where you have a top and a bottom
You only need to buy 2 extra monitors to see this visually
Just simply place 1 monitor on top of your active monitor and place one underneath
These 2 new monitors do not need to be wired in but they will remind you everyday and night of the misconception of tops and bottoms on the Global Exchange
Secondly, It seems to me you are both still using the GMT based in London as your Dateline
The Global Exchange follows the Sun
Not some outdated remnant of the Once Great British Empire
If you can remember all the celebration and fireworks at the turn of this Century the major economies celebrated in this order
Australia
Japan
China
India
Germany
England
USA
(I include Australia as a major economy only to prove I am a Patriot)
As you can see clearly in a 24hr trading day
Australia is the Dawn and the USA is the Dusk
I still believe I was spot on that time "Nuggets" and not a day late
I even warned our Dear Friar of my concerns re most sectors last Sunday (somewhere on IC?)
Salute and Gods speed for now
PS I'll post some charts at a later date to validate my seamanship skills re my statement "<28th Feb"
PPS Did I ever tell you
"The Storm Strikes Twice"
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 587
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 04, 2007 - 07:43 pm: |
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I have just listened to World business review on the BBC and have posted the link below. It is entitled "Correction or Collapse" or something to that effect.
Click on the audio button immediately to the right of the picture of the pile of coins.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/programmes/world_business_review.shtml
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2113
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 04, 2007 - 08:03 pm: |
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Good Evening
An expert on Business Sunday says the market is only one standard deviation above fair value compared to nine standard deviations above in 1987
What do people make of this?
Hilarius (a standard deviant)
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 927
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 04, 2007 - 08:27 pm: |
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While listening to "World Business Review" I felt any remaining bullishness drain out of me. Regardless of a lack of standard deviations I'm all out of optimism. No doubt we'll get a nice bounce when almost no one expects it, but after that ... 
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 591
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 05, 2007 - 08:54 am: |
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Perler,
I can't believe that so many financial commentators still believe this to be a China focused "correction". I'm watching the US mortgage market like a hawk.
Check out the latest on Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=azrxhCZbHMLk&refer=home
Regards
Kate
PS If you find any good news please post it, it all looks a bit "doom and gloom" from where I'm sitting.
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 1392
Registered: 01-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 05, 2007 - 03:32 pm: |
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Where to from here. I don't really know, but retracements to the 200 day MA has happened in the recent past, so maybe it will happen again.
Was some sort of pullback due? Whilst, you can never be certain, I thought so when I posted the following on Feb 2nd with a few weeks as the timeframe. Lucky this time.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=316907&post=106664#POST106664
Again, whilst I am still bullish on this market, I see that we are getting close to the top of my trend channel, and hence I conclude that there is a reasonable chance that the market will undergo another pullback over the next few months. Time to consider a more defensive position in the next few weeks to protect profits in the short to medium term?
with this chart......
Cheers,
Mosaic
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captain_chaza
Member
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