RULE OF SEVENS - Will It Apply in 2007 ???

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des2

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Thursday, June 28, 2007 - 03:24 pm:

We've all been forced to shift our buttocks slightly uneasily on occasion with the regular bell tolls by various prophets of doom. One interesting note is that most market crashes are long (lasting over a year) and 6 out of the top 11 crashes started in either September or November.

coincidentally some of the worst falls have been in 1907 (-48.5 %), 1917 (-40.1 %), 1937 (41.5 %), 1987 (-48.6 %) and 1997 (-17.9 %). to avoid being selective it should be noted that 1929 (-47.9 %), 1932 (-86.0 %) and 2001 (-37.8 %) were also bad years.

wonder whether the rule of sevens will apply in 2007?

1987

1997

(Message edited by des2 on June 28, 2007)

davkell

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Thursday, June 28, 2007 - 08:25 pm:

What happened on the other years ending in '7'. Were they down, even or were there a few excellent 'Up' years in there?

"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" - Van K Tharp

"Manage the downside; the upside will take care of itself" - Donald Trump

coyotte

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Saturday, June 30, 2007 - 09:48 pm:

not saying it's different this time round --BUT was reading in the Financial Review some time ago that only 3% of the value of XJO stocks are held by private investors/traders -- the rest by the Institutions -- if that is true then as long as you stayed in these stocks one would presume there would always be a fair amount of support .

Cheers

archer

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Sunday, July 01, 2007 - 12:28 pm:

The 7th year correction is worst when the year preceding was a good one and 06 was VERY good
Should be over in 3-4 months

des2

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Saturday, July 28, 2007 - 10:46 am:

the biggest single fall in five years has the bears out in full swing. is this the start of the 3-4 months you allude to archer?

more likely than not.

archer

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Saturday, July 28, 2007 - 12:24 pm:

yes the 7th year declines just about always commence mid year and last 3 months(to October-that month again)and sometimes go 6 months and lead to a bull year in the 8th which is the second strongest year of the decade behind
the 5 year.The 9th year continues the trend up but by mid to late 9 its time to look for the exit again as the markets fall apart going into the new decade

archer

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 05:31 pm:

The correction has gone pretty much to script and i did expect at least a month or 2 more on the down but with
federal reserves around the world now throwing freshly
printed money at mortgage backed securities there is the chance this could be shortened considerably as the 4 yr cycle was significantly shortened last year

captain_chaza

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 05:53 pm:

What Script?

PS BTW
None of this money is freshly printed
Surely you can't be that Dumb?

These Hard earned Monies by Governments have always been allocated for use in such BAD Times

It's called Good Money Management and Government

Crikey!
Is this when the Dumb just get even Dumber?

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on August 11, 2007)

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

archer

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 06:16 pm:

The decennial script

captain_chaza

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 06:32 pm:

Thanks for those 3 words Archie

It's 2 more words I ever expected you could put together without talking around the bush

Some of us Brave sailors don't have to wait every Seven years to Go a sailing

We just go a sailing when we think it is a good idea!

Salute and Gods' speed

archer

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 06:42 pm:

Err skip
Dictionary of Difficult Words - decennial. occurring every ten years; consisting of ten years; n. tenth anniversary. decennary, a. decennial; n. decennium. decennium, n. (pl. ...

NOT seven years

It saved me sailing thru the storm and had me enjoying a break(;-> (;-> (;-> (;->

captain_chaza

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 06:55 pm:

Well Done! Archie

I don't think any CFD'er would have survived these last 3 weeks

Some of the luckiest days I have ever had on the ASX was when I was playing Golf and far away from the screens

'tis strange how things work out sometimes?

Salute and Gods' speed

archer

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 07:02 pm:

I think for the next few months that should be

Salute and GOLD speed (;->

davkell

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Thursday, August 16, 2007 - 03:11 pm:

Oh, I wished I short the market when you posted the Rule of Sevens Des????

"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" - Van K Tharp

"Manage the downside; the upside will take care of itself" - Donald Trump

archer

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Friday, August 31, 2007 - 12:28 pm:

Similar topping pattern to the coal stocks i posted last year
Risk of a serious decline here if resistance cannot be overcome
Charts of merril lynch,goldman sachs,morgan stanley and
lehman bros look horrendous
xao

captain_chaza

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Friday, August 31, 2007 - 02:47 pm:

Ahoy Officer Archie

I think that resistance will be smashed tonite in Wall St

In Eco-Pol 101 the only option left for the Fed is to drop interest rates by 1-2%

I have e-mailed Helicopter Benny and have suggested this should be done in 0.25 monthly moves while keeping a vigilant eye on Inflation

I reminded the Fed that the Yanks have great Ego's and don't take kindly to being the slowest growing economy in the developed world
I also reminded him that Assassinations happen in America like no other place on Earth and suggested he Act quickly without hesitation

He has promised me he would re-read Eco-Pol 101 again and let us all know of his decision tonite

Seems like I will be up all night again!!!

This should be a really Great Spectacle!!!

Crikey!
I only have a little over an hour to set my remaining sails
and take advantage of this week-ending Gap Up on Monday

Salute and Gods' speed

The HMAS Bear Hunter under a full spread of sail presented to the Wind
"Ship Design is Everything"

hershy

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Saturday, September 01, 2007 - 09:31 am:

The chart below, nameless and priceless (to protect the innocent) is not too dissimilar from many charts now found on the US, UK or Aus bourses.
By my count they are all surfing 1st Elliott waves.
Wave 2 when it comes, will be a Lulu !!
It is accepted that 2nd waves usually have very deep re-tracements.

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

des2

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Friday, September 28, 2007 - 10:29 am:

alls well that ends well

archer

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Saturday, November 10, 2007 - 11:38 am:

Sub prime problem not fixed but GOLD always knew that(;->

Goldspeed

kate

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Monday, November 12, 2007 - 01:29 pm:

Hi Archer

Good to see you back.
Do you not think we are going to have a hiccough on the way?
My money is on some intervention or other when 1US$=Euro 1.50. I wonder if the IMF can have it arm twisted to part with some of its stash.

Regards
Kate

archer

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Sunday, November 25, 2007 - 02:58 pm:

Hi Kate
Never any hiccoughs in the gold market,they are always full blown vomits
Friday was a big day though with gold up 25 even with a strong dollar rally
Some short creaming going on
The U.S looks like a 6 month decline instead of the 3 month type
A low in Jan will set up an 18-24 month bull before the excrement hits the fan

kate

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Wednesday, December 05, 2007 - 09:25 am:

Intervention going according to plan. ECB dumped 42 Tonnes of gold in November. I wonder how long that will last, maybe until 11th December?

Archer, what about Armstrong's turning point around March 2008?

Kate

archer

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Friday, January 18, 2008 - 11:08 am:

Markets coming down for a Jan low as expected (;-> BUT
will it stop here
Subprime problem is quickly getting out of control and the
march date may come into play Kate
The big U.S banks now begging the communist chinese and the
Arabs for bailouts
Capitalism needing communism to survive-hahahaha
Whats the next big plan going to be????????
2 options
1-the next big plan works(print,print,print,print,and more
print setting up the inflationary bull run to 2009 followed
by a massive collapse gold outperforming just about everything (;->
2-It doesnt work and we collapse now with gold and silver
becoming a safe haven and out performing everything (;->

Good Luck and as i said in August Goldspeed

sp500

kate

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Friday, January 18, 2008 - 01:30 pm:

Archer
I couldn't agree more. If we go scenario one it going to be a pig of a year to trade.

Best wishes
Kate

hailoh

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Sunday, January 20, 2008 - 09:45 am:

Kate, through Chinese eyes, 2007 was savoured like a pig in mud. 2008 will be absolutely ratty.

archer

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Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - 09:07 pm:

I can hear the printing presses whirring away as they go
into double overtime (;->
Massive,massive,massive amounts of paper are on their way

In Gold we trust

and dont forget silver (;->

redback

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Wednesday, January 23, 2008 - 02:43 am:

Everyone is so quiet, why we knew this was coming, lets take an advantage of it, it will go up then the big one will hit us, a blind man can see this. We are traders right? So I lost a bit if dough but will make this up on short selling, Know what I mean, This is only the tip of the iceberge, Panic in the market means disaster and benefits the smarter, look at the big picture. Just a hint right trade right and make a fortune. I'm of to bed

archer

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Monday, March 17, 2008 - 08:19 pm:

Things looking grim (;-> might be time for a bottom right around that date Kate

kate

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Tuesday, March 18, 2008 - 07:47 am:

Archer

I have the 20/21/22th firmly planted in my mind but I struggle to see a way out of the mire. If the extent of this financial mess is unprecedented will the cycle still be valid?

Regards
Kate

kate

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Tuesday, March 18, 2008 - 09:58 am:

Archer
I went back and had another read of Armstrong's theory and it appears the cycle will be unaffected.

Kate

archer

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Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 09:00 am:

Armstrong and the March equinox strike again Kate
http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com/search/label/Models
Scroll to bottom of page (Economic Confidence Model)
Maybe a struggle up to the 2009 date before we go down,
down,down

kate

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Tuesday, April 08, 2008 - 09:21 am:

Archer

I think I have reread the material about five times and each time I understand more. Absolutely fascinating to read alongside the present business news. I think that the volatility in the next 12 months will be as bad if not worse than the last year. In six months time, if not sooner, it will be back to trades of a very short duration.

Regards
Kate

archer

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Saturday, April 12, 2008 - 02:30 pm:

Kate
It may not be over yet
Posted above on August 31st
"Charts of merril lynch,goldman sachs,morgan stanley and
lehman bros look horrendous"
Today those same charts STILL look horrendous
If the money printing presses cant fix this prob what can???
This looks TERMINAL

kate

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Monday, April 14, 2008 - 08:57 am:

Archer
Unfortunately, I can only see more bad news for the future. Okay, so now everyone is convinced the US is in recession but this isn't going to be just any old recession, this is going to be a whopper. Next year will be painful and its anyone's guess how long it will last. The property market is frozen, the CDS "market" doesn't appear much better and banks are saving mountains of cash - I wonder why!!

Having said that shorter term we may see a few rallies. The Fed will probably lower interest rates at the end of this month then the economic stimulus package kicks in sometime in May. The G7 stated that big currency swings are damaging and have to be avoided - ie intervention if necessary.

I think big changes are afoot starting with the huge shakeup of the US centric IMF. Whether this is the beginning of the transfer of financial power from the US I don't know, it will be interesting to look back in 5 years time and see what has taken place.

archer

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 07:45 am:

Last night
Goldman Sachs down 3%
Morgan Stanley down 6%
Merril Lynch down 7%
Lehman Bros down 14%
and the banking index approaching its 2002 lows
better hope they hold
whydontthisparachutework

ohkoolnutz

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 08:33 am:

This will never hold. To clean up the global economy we need somebody to die under excruciating pain. I don't remember any bank in the USA, UK or Australia folding. Everything has been bailed out, merged, refunded or reevaluated.

JP Morgan Chase bought Bear Stearns. The best thing for the global economy would be if it turns out that now JP Morgan Chase didn't get a good deal but that JP Morgan Chase is bankrupt itself.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

kate

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 09:29 am:

My money is on Lehman Bros going to the wall.

What about Babcock and Brown here?

archer

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 09:45 am:

My money is on the U.S Dollar going to the wall and has been for some time(;->

kate

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 09:56 am:

Lehman first and then the USD and you have a deal!

archer

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 10:23 am:

BNB now at its issue price of Oct 04
From 35 to 8 bucks OUCH!!!

kate

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 10:58 am:

I wonder what BBP will open at when it comes out of its trading halt.

De-leveraging has been the name of the game for approx a year now, not suprising considering what everyone is paying for debt.
The banks are sunk when you consider that this is only the beginning of the rise in global interest rates.

It will be interesting to see how MBL will fare today.

archer

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 12:03 pm:

BBP down 33%
BBI down 16%
BNB down 16%

ohkoolnutz

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 01:18 pm:

With the US dollar is going pear-shaped why is there no loud movement to trade oil in Euros?

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

kate

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 01:35 pm:

BNB still going down. Do you think MBL would risk a takeover?

msparks

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 05:07 pm:

wilson htm said mqg they would be interested in the assets but y would they want the bnb part ???

surely they would just set up an infrastructure fund and just buy all the assets at bargain prices when they go broke, taking mu 10 g with them i suppose !!!

thought bnb was too clever to go broke , i still think they will be OK .........deep deep down inside somewhere

there is nothing wrong with their assets and the income they will generate, just the credit crunch and interest rates making it tough going atmo, they over extended their selves in the boom and easy credit cycle a little

mqg better placed but may not make money for a year or 3 so could see it shorted down the drain to much lower prices also

i am really pleased i bought them too on Tuesday avo

hows that , i consider myself not even in the market and i have lost shitloads already just in a few spec buys looking for rebounds

don't tell Dug, he and his little mate HC will be so pleased

don't tell me Archer is back gloating again !!!
yer, i bought LGL too , and gold has fallen ever since

all we need is Lafee here tell us how much he makes each day on forex and Ingot giving an update on how bloody successful a trader he is now, and it will be just like old times

old Spiders never die, they just start watching tv again like the rest of us.
Wonder if the Jag has a dint in it yet ?
Could have been scratched by a cranky old Bear i guess.

anyway, Macca is under the 200 ema so won't hear from him for a while either

ah, looks like everyones moved on except me

" I have my own unique system "
" I buy high and sell low "
"Money is not the main game , it is sticking to the plan, through thick and thin , unwavering from a disciplined approach to share trading "

captain_chaza

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 05:12 pm:

Ahoy SCO Katie

This could well be a WIP( Work In Progress)
However a full takeover of BNB at this point in time would be deemed "OPPORTUNISTIC"

To do the Kerry Packer Tack/Tactic as in CRO (Crown Casino) one would soak up shares at Arms' length at these prices and then accumulate at prices well above the LOW
And then and only then make a higher offer that would not dis-enfranchise the "Opportunistic" vote holders

His tact was always about Capitulation, Recovery /Relief and then Takeover

He was a real Master of Sailing as a Campaign

From Memory?
He took over The CRO @ 0.90?? after seeing those shares fall to as low as 0.45c

BTW He also sold his original stake in CRO at 2.65 from memory

It was Bondies Channel 9 Revisited

It is all fun and games when you have a few mates at amrs' length Hey? in these times
It sure keeps those Amerteurs/Dumb Detective Dogs/ASIC way out of reach and off guard

Ahoy Archie

The time is getting pretty close for some "INTERVENTION" IMHO
I certainly would not be caught-out short in USD in the shorter terms in life (the X axiS)

Don't forget "The Week-end is for Champions" and always Respect the Power of a FEW good mates as in G8 G10 and even G24 if it takes that many?

Who would want to be a Bear after this week-end?

Salute and Gods' speed

PS Officer Lafee and Sea-cadet #54

Can you look-out for any movement on the currency front to suggest
"INTERVENTION"

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on June 12, 2008)

kate

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 05:27 pm:

Captain C

The only intervention will be in the stock market/financial institutions. The USD has bottomed and on the way up. Look at the exchange rate today, we went down against all currencies to a extent but much more so with the USD. Check out the exchange rates half way down the page.

https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx

Gold tanking as I type

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

What the bet commodities get hit tonight.

kate

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 05:54 pm:

Mark,
Time to change your plan. This is a bear market with rallies to the upside. Unless you are happy to short, stay in cash. Global inflation equals increased interest rates and falling stockmarkets. The USD isn't going down for the time being, its going up, so no gold, no oil, no commodities(unless very short term). There are always things going up but more going down so probability is against you.

Kate

kate

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 - 06:18 pm:

Bernanke and Trichet have both warned against inflation within days of each other - oil the main problem but other commodities esp agricultural causing grief too.

So how interesting to see this article on Kitco showing one way of "solving" the so called "speculative problem".

"Forced commodity liquidations coming?"
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/jun112008.html

archer

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Friday, June 13, 2008 - 08:43 am:

Skip
there WONT be any intervention not in a market that size
They either raise rates or they dont and now that everyone
at the fed has hinted at it they have to raise
IF they dont gold will scream thru 1000
As long as 850 and 74c hold the trends are intact short term
a move over 74 means it may be good for a few more cents to
76 or even 78
I dont trade currencies as a couple of CFD accounts are
more than enough for me so my only means of shorting uncle
sam is by longing gold and silver and those purchases have
always been to hold till end of decade minimum
As far as the oz and U.S indexes are concerned they all
broke down from rising wedges which portends a fast trip
back to the point of origin
Heres what gold will do if the fed is just jawboning
just add a zero to those figures on the right

kate

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Friday, June 13, 2008 - 10:59 am:

Archer

Buyers moved in at approx USD 857.
I don't know if gold will go through 850, I think it may in the short to medium term but longer term the trend will be up. All bets are off in the case of oil supply shocks!

Regards
Kate

kate

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Friday, June 13, 2008 - 11:02 am:

PS
That 7.5 level doesn't like to breached, what's going to give first?

archer

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Friday, June 13, 2008 - 11:37 am:

Kate
If it breaks i think it will break big and both at the same
time
The gold stocks here and u.s are acting poorly-maybe a clue

The whole B+B stable is getting whipped

kate

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Friday, June 13, 2008 - 11:57 am:

ANZ is using the Future Fund for money, may be a cheaper way to access debt. None of the banks here have had a capital raising unlike the ones in the US and UK. Lehman have already had one and now needs to raise another USD 3 billion. Debt is very expensive. Which brings me to the B&B stable - debt is their middle name. If they fall apart, what effect will this have on all the other infrastructure companies and the likes of Macquarie who rely so heavily on debt. The stockmarket doesn't take to kindly to that sort of fallout either.

kate

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Friday, June 13, 2008 - 12:30 pm:

For the Gold-oil ratio to remain true:

Gold at 850 = oil at 85

oil at 135 = gold at 1350

archer

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Friday, June 13, 2008 - 01:00 pm:

Less tightening this year than markets think, except for the ECB. Our central bank watchers around the world remain less impressed by the hawkish rhetoric than the markets. The one notable exception is in the euro area, where Elga Bartsch now expects the ECB to follow up words with action in the form of a 25bp rate hike in July and another one later this year. Yet, in the US, the UK and Japan, our central scenario remains that policy rates will be left unchanged this year, as Dick Berner and Dave Greenlaw, David Miles and Melanie Baker and Takehiro Sato explain. Also, we don’t expect a tightening of monetary policy in Australia and Switzerland this year, even though the risks in these countries are probably skewed towards a rise. Norway and Sweden look likely to hike, but only once, and we maintain our call for 75bp of rate cuts in New Zealand.

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2008/20080612-Thu.html