RULE OF SEVENS - Will It Apply in 2007 ???

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des2

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Thursday, June 28, 2007 - 03:24 pm:

We've all been forced to shift our buttocks slightly uneasily on occasion with the regular bell tolls by various prophets of doom. One interesting note is that most market crashes are long (lasting over a year) and 6 out of the top 11 crashes started in either September or November.

coincidentally some of the worst falls have been in 1907 (-48.5 %), 1917 (-40.1 %), 1937 (41.5 %), 1987 (-48.6 %) and 1997 (-17.9 %). to avoid being selective it should be noted that 1929 (-47.9 %), 1932 (-86.0 %) and 2001 (-37.8 %) were also bad years.

wonder whether the rule of sevens will apply in 2007?

1987

1997

(Message edited by des2 on June 28, 2007)

davkell

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Thursday, June 28, 2007 - 08:25 pm:

What happened on the other years ending in '7'. Were they down, even or were there a few excellent 'Up' years in there?

"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" - Van K Tharp

"Manage the downside; the upside will take care of itself" - Donald Trump

coyotte

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Saturday, June 30, 2007 - 09:48 pm:

not saying it's different this time round --BUT was reading in the Financial Review some time ago that only 3% of the value of XJO stocks are held by private investors/traders -- the rest by the Institutions -- if that is true then as long as you stayed in these stocks one would presume there would always be a fair amount of support .

Cheers

archer

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Sunday, July 01, 2007 - 12:28 pm:

The 7th year correction is worst when the year preceding was a good one and 06 was VERY good
Should be over in 3-4 months

des2

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Saturday, July 28, 2007 - 10:46 am:

the biggest single fall in five years has the bears out in full swing. is this the start of the 3-4 months you allude to archer?

more likely than not.

archer

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Saturday, July 28, 2007 - 12:24 pm:

yes the 7th year declines just about always commence mid year and last 3 months(to October-that month again)and sometimes go 6 months and lead to a bull year in the 8th which is the second strongest year of the decade behind
the 5 year.The 9th year continues the trend up but by mid to late 9 its time to look for the exit again as the markets fall apart going into the new decade

archer

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 05:31 pm:

The correction has gone pretty much to script and i did expect at least a month or 2 more on the down but with
federal reserves around the world now throwing freshly
printed money at mortgage backed securities there is the chance this could be shortened considerably as the 4 yr cycle was significantly shortened last year

captain_chaza

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 05:53 pm:

What Script?

PS BTW
None of this money is freshly printed
Surely you can't be that Dumb?

These Hard earned Monies by Governments have always been allocated for use in such BAD Times

It's called Good Money Management and Government

Crikey!
Is this when the Dumb just get even Dumber?

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on August 11, 2007)

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

archer

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 06:16 pm:

The decennial script

captain_chaza

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 06:32 pm:

Thanks for those 3 words Archie

It's 2 more words I ever expected you could put together without talking around the bush

Some of us Brave sailors don't have to wait every Seven years to Go a sailing

We just go a sailing when we think it is a good idea!

Salute and Gods' speed

archer

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 06:42 pm:

Err skip
Dictionary of Difficult Words - decennial. occurring every ten years; consisting of ten years; n. tenth anniversary. decennary, a. decennial; n. decennium. decennium, n. (pl. ...

NOT seven years

It saved me sailing thru the storm and had me enjoying a break(;-> (;-> (;-> (;->

captain_chaza

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 06:55 pm:

Well Done! Archie

I don't think any CFD'er would have survived these last 3 weeks

Some of the luckiest days I have ever had on the ASX was when I was playing Golf and far away from the screens

'tis strange how things work out sometimes?

Salute and Gods' speed

archer

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Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 07:02 pm:

I think for the next few months that should be

Salute and GOLD speed (;->

davkell

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Thursday, August 16, 2007 - 03:11 pm: