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     kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 716
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 11:55 am: |  
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There is so much information being bandied around I thought it may be helpful to post a couple of links from the BBC website. In their business analysis section they often provide background information to current market problems. It is in a Q&A format and easy to follow.
1. Sub prime mortgages
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5144662.stm
2. This link isn't in Q&A format but is still easy to follow and explains the reasons behind "credit crunches"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6939899.stm
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2614
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 02:52 pm: |
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Ahoy Brave and Loyal Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie 
In times of Credit Crunches and Credit Squeezes many tacks have been tried over the years but alas
All Have Failed
The Latest Concept in ECO-POL 101 nowadays in solving this mess is to throw money out of helicopters
I believe it to be a Great Tack and have no doubt
"It Will work!"
God bless Our Sweet Fundamentalists and Academics who always seem to Tack LATE!
Crikey! Unemployed Landlubbers can't pay taxes!
Without taxes you can't even make WARS
"How Silly is That?"
Salute and Gods' Speed
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on August 11, 2007)
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"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 3005
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 03:15 pm: |
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Charles,
If wars were funded by taxes, they would be over in a few months - taxpayers would revolt.
Unfortunately the Bank of England came up with a novel idea in Napoleon's time - just print more money and the public will be none the wiser. Then blame the runaway inflation on those greedy shopkeepers and black marketeers.
Regards,
Colin
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 717
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 03:29 pm: |
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Captain C
How long will the first batch of money solve the problem for do you think, one day or two?
It was a bit scary when Trichet asked the banks how much they wanted, Bernanke didn't even do that!
Europe is obviously in a lot more trouble than first realised. What I find really intriguing is that nobody, including the ECB, know how many and to what extent the large financial institutions are exposed.
Regards
Kate
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2646
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 03:50 pm: |
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Kate
That is why all the experts are paid squillions of dollars in salaries in order not to know what is going on
You and I could classify debts into A, B and C grade and add them up
I would be quite willing to do it for the salary the experts are paid
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2615
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 03:52 pm: |
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Ahoy SCO Katie
The Magnitude of the "Problem" is insignificant
However, IMHO The Number of Helicopters Is Paramount!
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2616
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 04:07 pm: |
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Ahoy Dear Friar
I have seen your Accounting /Handywork in your Useless Learning Exercise in Long Term/Real time
You seem to rely heavily on "Trust" in lieu of doing the hard yards
Maybe it is just One of Those "Christian Things" I do not understand?
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2648
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 11, 2007 - 08:20 pm: |
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Dear Courageous Captain
We Christians learned trust from our Jewish forebears and their descendants in the Jewish faith carry on the fine tradition of trust which your ancestors taught us all
No self respecting Christian or Jew would ever require a written contract when an honest hand-shake is all that is required. Surely that is your experience?
With Best Wishes
Friar Hilarius
I hope it won't be long before all follow our example 
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 728
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 17, 2007 - 08:57 am: |
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Thought it would be interesting to show a time line of the sub prime story.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6945672.stm
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easymoney
Member
Username: easymoney
Post Number: 35
Registered: 03-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 09:03 am: |
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Pardon the naivety of the question, but who has done what to whom to trigger all of this? Have the "sub-prime" lenders been living hand to mouth to the extent that their businesses have fallen over because they can't borrow more funds?
...or is it the usual process of businesses going backwards taking bigger and bigger risks until failure is inevitable?
We are told that P/E ratios are "normal" unlike the tech bubble of the 90s. How much of the growth in company profits (which keep the P/E ratio "normal") is based on performance and how much is by leverage?
(Message edited by easymoney on August 18, 2007)
Two of them say they're Jesus.
One of them must be wrong.
Industrial Disease
Dire Straits
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 734
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 10:06 am: |
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Easymoney,
Have a read of this and see if it helps answer your question
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/88863e9e-4ce9-11dc-a51d-0000779fd2ac.html
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easymoney
Member
Username: easymoney
Post Number: 36
Registered: 03-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 11:06 am: |
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Thanks Kate.
So is it just the usual story of people being vulnerable to an unexpected change of circumstances?
Two of them say they're Jesus.
One of them must be wrong.
Industrial Disease
Dire Straits
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 735
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 02:10 pm: |
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Easymoney,
Apparently there was quite a bit of fraud as well - on both sides of the mortgage equation.
But mostly it the usual story of taking advantage of people who aren't financially savvy and who have "eyes bigger than their stomach". Don't forget it is consumerism that makes the US go round.
Kate
(Message edited by kate on August 18, 2007)
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2635
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 03:39 pm: |
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Ahoy Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie
You can't account for the Dumb and then the Dumber in these stock-markets
All you can do is follow the orders of your Skipper
"Discipline is Everything"
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2683
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 04:03 pm: |
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Unfortunately Dear Captain
The American skipper and the Australian skipper in their respective central banks are steering in opposite directions
Which one is right ... lower interest rates or higher interest rates
I would like to see the Aussie one proved right
I think the market needs a year or two of falling prices
With Best Wishes
Your Humble Friary One
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2684
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 04:08 pm: |
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Captain
I consider shares to be absurdly over-priced
All the deadbeat stocks with poor prospects need to be liquidated, by their owners voluntarily or by market forces
Even strong upward bounces will not convince me we don't need lower highs and lower lows
Unless anyone thinks this year's highs were under-valuations?
With Best Wishes
Friar Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2636
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 04:23 pm: |
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Ahoy Dear Friar 
What sort of Sea-Seakness drugs are you on?
The Bears have been skinned "Alive"!
What do you not understand?
Finito La Musica! as they say
Salute and Gods' Speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2685
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 04:26 pm: |
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Brave Captain
Why do you not suspect ongoing bear traps?
Friar Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2637
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 04:59 pm: |
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Dear Friar,
It's because you can't make "Great Wars" nowadays in falling Markets!!
It's as Simple as That!
ECO-POl 101
Conversely, You can't have rising markets if you can't fuel Wars
It's really a Catch 22 in ECO-POL 101
Have you got any good ideas with whom we should go to WAR with next?
If not, then this could get very boring and only Range trading will be on offer!
I would target those in Rag-Hats who believe we are infidels and do not deserve to live on this earth!
As always
"The Wind Calls the Tune"
Salute and Gods' Speed
Crikey!
I could think of a lot of Just Wars (100 at least)
Most of them are personal and therefore there is no need to go any further on this forum
Crikey!
The World is going really CRAZY ATM
Even North Korea is dismanteling its Nuclears
Does anybody ever listen to those Gold-Bugs anymore and the good ole days of Yester-year?
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on August 18, 2007)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on August 18, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2638
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 06:33 pm: |
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Crikey!
We now have a "Warlike" lead recovery on our hands
Moscow is having practice drills/war-games with China against America
This world can be a very funny place at times
Everything is on cue for a new COLD-WAR-Lead Recovery
I have plenty of targets!
Salute and Gods' speed
PS
Maybe it is now time for Australia to stage some WAR-GAMES with Japan, India, and America against Russia and China
It Certainly Would Not hurt!!!!!! IMHO
PPS
All we need is a couple of Hurricanes and a few Wars to make my day!!
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on August 18, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2686
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 18, 2007 - 10:45 pm: |
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Good Captain
A Short History of the World
Adam and Eve left Eden ... too perfect
The People of Israel left the Promised Land ... too soon
The Romans left England ... too wet
Napoleon left Russia ... too cold
Hitler left Russia ... too cold ... one front too many
Chiang Kai-Shek left China ... too many Chinese
Bush left office ... one front too many
Where to from here ???
American Isolationism wins at last ???
Osama Celebrates ???
Big Fight over the Promised Land ???
Taiwan "absorbed" ???
A Decade of Retreat from Prosperity ???
Perhaps 1929 started like this ... I understand there were seven bear trap recoveries during that "Crash"
Just because things seem unimaginable does not make them impossible
With Best Wishes
Friar Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 738
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, August 20, 2007 - 09:34 am: |
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Hilarius
I have spent the weekend mulling over events and come to the conclusion that the stock market rally in the US and the UK (and presumably here today) is just another bear trap.
Facts:
The US primary credit discount window was lowered .5%, not .25%. (last Friday)
Instead of the term financing being overnight or for several days it has been extended to 30 days.
We still know nothing about who has exposure to CDOs or any other weird and wonderful debt packages.
Considering the generous bailout provisions either the situation is going to get a whole lot worse (and the Fed knows the extent of the problem) or Bernanke is going a Greenspan and the US dollar is going down big time.
What are your thoughts?
Regards
Kate
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polpak
Member
Username: polpak
Post Number: 3
Registered: 07-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 25, 2007 - 07:08 pm: |
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Friar Hilarius writes : Just because things seem unimaginable does not make them impossible
Very true !
History shows few prepared properly for the unimaginable, in time for when it happened.
Impossible means we are still figuring out how, or when, it will happen.
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