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     may
Member
Username: may
Post Number: 33
Registered: 04-2005Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, December 17, 2007 - 07:11 am: |  
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The Dec/Jan 'bull party' is often discussed so I decided to check the chart and found, to my surprise, since 1980 the market has only gone down on 2 occasions - 1981 and 1994.
Both 1980 and 1990 were 'V' years - sharply down in Dec. and sharply up in Jan. 1987 experienced (understandably) a disciplined consolidation.
This year? Your guess is as good as mine or anyone else's.
Just for the fun of it I did the same exercise with the Dow - what a remarkable difference! Excuse trendlines which I'd forgotten to remove.
Happy Christmas to you all and may 2008 be a year of many rewarding experiences and happy memories.
Regards
May
ps. Sorry the chart only goes back to 1994 - it was getting to 'squishy' to read and couldn't be done on a monthly chart due to the short annual period involved.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 846
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 12:50 pm: |
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hello may,
Thanks for your cheerie charts and comments! I note that Shane Oliver (quoted in the AFR) suggested couple of days ago that the auzzie market was oversold and ready for the santa rally, but it looks like the market had other ideas.
the attached chart shows clearly what many stocks are showing ~ I reckon by end of day we could see the volume up and capitulation occurring - perhaps not but lets see.
Daily chart: Volume still could bounce higher today & nearing some technical support and still looking for >7,100 before february....m I note options expiry in USA today and perhaps here?
What do others think?
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2905
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 01:02 pm: |
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Two Days can be a long time at sea
Crikey!
I think I just spotted Santa dressed up as a Bear Hunter !
Phew! I am glad that is all over!
Salute and Gods' speed
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on December 18, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 848
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 01:13 pm: |
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I tend to agree captain, but the rest of this week will confirm sighting  .
PS for the following reason/s
FROM: THE AUSTRALIAN TODAY:
December 18, 2007
THE European Central Bank is set to offer banks unlimited funds at a below-market fixed rate as market unease over the US sub-prime mortgage crisis continues.
In a statement the ECB said that during the two-week market refinancing operation (MRO) beginning today it would allow banks to borrow an unlimited amount of funds and would keep the rate at 4.21 per cent, below the 4.9 per cent market rate for similar operations over the past few days.
"Specifically, as a minimum the ECB will satisfy all bids at or above the weighted average rate of the MRO settled on 12 December, ie: 4.21 per cent,'' the bank said.
Since the US market for high-risk loans collapsed in August, central banks have been boosting liquidity into the banking sector to ensure that banks continue to extend credit to businesses.
On December 12 the European, US and Swiss central banks said they would provide more than $US60 billion ($70.2 billion) to money markets over longer periods and under easier-than-usual conditions to calm the markets.
The Wall Street Journal reported that this would be only the second time in the ECB's nine-year history that it would offer an unlimited amount of funds at a fixed rate. The first time was on August 9 when financial markets first seized up as the US sub-prime mortgage market melted down. and what happened soon after that happened?
The ECB announced last week that it would exceptionally extend the MRO for two weeks.
In its announcement yesterday, the ECB told banks they could have a nearly unlimited amount of funds at the below-market level of 4.21 per cent through the end of the year, a delicate time for financial institutions which needed to close their accounting books.
For its part, the Fed began an operation yesterday to inject $US20 billion into the market. The results of that are to become known on Tuesday.
(Message edited by tryhay on December 18, 2007)
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2906
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 03:35 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Tryhay
All I can do is claim the sighting at the time Posted above
2.02 PM
I don't know how to print intra-day charts but I do know that all Rallies start somewhere but they all start at different points from where ever you sit
My Commsec data feed failed dropping in and dropping out like a good friend this morning
I have also heard other feeds also failed
'Tis Strange how these compasses often fail at Tops and Bottoms and when you need them the most???
Salute and Gods' speed
And many thanks for being only a part of a Handful of IC'ers who dosn't BRAG and Talk in Hindsight
PS
I wonder what the Intra-day chart looked like @ the Time of posting?
ie 2.02PM AEST
Naturally, I will be holding on firmly Overnight
PPS Ahoy May
There is an old seaman's tale that
Thanks-giving is for the Bearish Skippers
and Xmas is for Bullish skippers
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on December 18, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 850
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 04:02 pm: |
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One can look a $%^&* if one chats in real time but everyone is an expert in hindsight. Even them in hindsight ain't always correct ~ & I guess the real measure of a "sailer" (used advisedly) is what one does when the market chucks a tantie (and I'll be the first to admit I more often than I want do silly things).
Nearly double average volume has to be a +ve sign on a down day for the future...
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may
Member
Username: may
Post Number: 35
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 04:28 pm: |
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Thank you for your kind comment tryhay.
I believe the market hit bottom at 10.20 this morning. The blood bath was possibly aggravated by people about to go on holidays choosing to sell rather than having to check the market whilst away.
Today's afternoon buying spree may signal a more positive mood tomorrow.
I would not be overly concerned if the market continued down to around 6000/61.8% retrace but would be concerned if it did not find support at this level.
I have a currently valid, calculated XAO pt of 7740 with a timeframe for meeting that of 12-18months.
Cheers, and here's to our seas being filled with Bullish skippers this festive season
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2908
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 04:56 pm: |
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Ahoy May
I estimate the time of failure of Commsec ProTrader International Brokers and even Tradingroom.com.au @ ~ 10.43 AM
After that time transmissions seemed non-existant to me
I was lucky in that I was only trying to Buy more and was not playing any Get-out of jail cards
Crikey!
It was like being a Bull in a china shop after the data feeds corrected
Once again this Captain ran out of Funds
Crikey!
It is amazing how we yachties never seem to have enough money when the time is right!
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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des2
Member
Username: des2
Post Number: 184
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 05:26 pm: |
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hi may
interesting chart - thanks
BUT did you call a market bottom today????
bottom of what? is the late rally today supposed to be our comeback? surely the uncertain volatility we are seeing is typical a MARKET TOP not a bottom!
sorry i just dont get the analysis on this thread!
cheers
des
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2909
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 05:42 pm: |
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Ahoy Des
There are some great sailors out there
Maybe one or two or three of them could post a GOOD intra-day chart for the Day
ie: Today!
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 851
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 10:05 pm: |
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Stay with it des ~ Nothin is certain in life but death & taxes but the chart/s below suggest a change in trend occurred today. Perhaps it is a fakeout but the volume attached to the price action suggests the "smart money" has just milked the unsofisticate/s and is likely to play out as a bounce.
5 Day chart - 15 mins: check out the indicators and price action..
2 Day chart:
Worth checking out price action with the DJIA tonight and later this week before counting chickens hatching ~ rumour has it the djia futures are up ATM: Dow Jones +91.00 13360.00 12/18 6:40am DJIA Contracts Bonds
Not to mention Stocks set to rebound
Futures point to sharply higher open as central banks try to remedy credit crisis; Goldman Sachs, Best Buy slated to post earnings.
December 18 2007: 6:25 AM EST
NEW YORK -- Stock futures suggested a sharply higher open Tuesday as central banks around the world tackled the credit crunch and as investors awaited some key earnings.
At 6:11 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were higher, suggesting gains at the start for Wall Street.
Stocks have posted heavy losses in recent sessions amid worries about the credit crisis and slowing U.S. economy, but investors may be encouraged by recent moves central banks worldwide have taken to loosen up the credit markets.
Late on Monday the European Central Bank said it would allow its member banks to tap unlimited amounts of funds at a fixed rate for a two-week period. The move came on the same day that the Fed began a series of auctions aimed at getting banks to boost their lending to businesses and consumers.
Starting Tuesday, the Bank of England will auction off $23 billion to lenders as part of the joint effort to alleviate the ongoing credit crisis.
The Fed is also due to unveil later on Tuesday a plan that would give borrowers of home loans new protections against shady lending practices. Loose lending practices have been partly blamed for the current subprime mortgage crisis. etc etc.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2911
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 10:20 pm: |
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Let's watch the Captain at his Best while we wait for all those Dark Clouds to pass overhead
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArbARCeam3I
Salute and Gods' speed
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on December 18, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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may
Member
Username: may
Post Number: 36
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 19, 2007 - 05:17 am: |
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