It seems like 1990 Revisted to me!

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captain_chaza

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Friday, January 18, 2008 - 12:13 am:

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

Salute and Gods'speed

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

hailoh

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Sunday, January 20, 2008 - 09:41 am:

Between October 1989 and January 1991 (15 months) the XAO fell about 29%. If we have a similar result this time, the market could reach about 4880 early next year. That level isn't far from about 4780 posted elsewhere in the forum.

Between March 1994 and January 1995 (11 months) and between February 2002 and April 2003 (14 months)the XAO fell about 22%. That would translate into about a 5150 result.

There were two to three rebounds during each period of decline.

What is different from the 1990s is the presence of compulsory superannuation funds that keep pouring into the coffers? Where do they go? Into bonds or major infrastructure? At what stage does the market look too enticing?

I decided near the end of October last year that the subprime was about to blow and shorted the financials. The final burst upwards took my trousers and when I grabbed a big broad leaf to cover, it turned out to be a stinging tree. So, if I say I believe there is a chance of a rebound at these levels, just lock the doors and bolt the windows.

lafee

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Sunday, January 20, 2008 - 11:51 am:

My instinctive feeling is to buy this market but this week I keep on hearing economists asserting that we are close to a bottom - sighting the corrections in aug/sep as an indication of what might come (ie bounce straight back up). This makes me rather nervous. Maybe this is sign of further downside - maybe not.

Thursday was the worst S&P decline (47 points) since April 2000. Such moves can and do precede additional large moves as the path resistance (both up and down) are weakened. A large percentage of participants were forced to act, now they are watching. It takes less energy for price to move. Volatility breeds volatility so to speak.

This is the domain of the position day trader. A day trader that is prepared to hold any position that moves well in his/her favour. That happens so rarely that most are not ready for it when it occurs (ie they run out of money or interest while the market is not volatile).

The potential for large runnaway moves is here. I don't know which way it will go but if one increases the frequency your trading while lowing your individual exposure and gets rid of any preconceived views on likely direction you will increase your chances of capturing a very big winner.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

captain_chaza

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Monday, January 21, 2008 - 05:54 pm:

Ahoy Officer Lafee

I would wait for
"Terrible Tuesday' NY time to play/fissle out

I have emailed the Pump Team and suggested they come in RUTHLESSLY on Capitulation of the natives and give us a strong close

I reminded them of the importance of Buying on Pullbacks and having a Good close on this Tues NY time

Salute and Gods' speed

hailoh

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Monday, January 21, 2008 - 07:45 pm:

G'day Charles,

You started this. I've taken my own advice and it's damn dark in here. Are your eyes reliable?

captain_chaza

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Monday, January 21, 2008 - 08:00 pm:

Ahoy Hailoh

You probably havn't ever heard of "Terrible Tuesday"?
This is quite understandable as it is simply hasn't happened YET!

Today is only Monday!

Salute and Gods'speed

lafee

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Monday, January 21, 2008 - 09:59 pm:

Hi Captain,

I'm going to buy the SPI tonight, maybe on the US open. Then buy some more tomorrow morning on our open. I might even consider buying some 2-3 month calls with strikes from 5800 to 6000. I'm sure they will be cheap with the DOW futures currently down 400+ points from fridays close!

I worry I might have to risk too much if I was to wait for Wednesday.

Cheers Lafee

(Message edited by lafee on January 21, 2008)

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

captain_chaza

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Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - 02:14 pm:

Ahoy Brave and Loyal Officer Lafee

What a Terrible Tuesday!
The indicative open ATM for the DOW tonite in Wall St is
-500 points

Please remember the electric power to Wall St will automatically turn off @ -1350

It's hard to believe the Yanks will do nothing before this happens?

But then again as you know
It took someone (I forget who) to bomb Pearl Harbour to get them into WW2

Salute and Gods' speed

PS
At the time of editing 3.30
Circut breakers have just kicked in INDIA

This is truly a "Terrible Tuesday"

PPS You heard it here first
Crikey! It could be time to join the Weekly competition again next week

"Safety at Sea is Paramount"

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on January 22, 2008)

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on January 22, 2008)

lafee

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Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - 02:26 pm:

Here is the cont. chart of the DJ

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

captain_chaza

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Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - 02:43 pm:

Ahoy Officer Lafee

I mean the Futures/DOW are down already -500 points and they have not even heard about the 10% circuit break in INDIA

Salute and Gods speed

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on January 22, 2008)

smallworld

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Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - 03:09 pm:

I wouldn't like to be caught short, either in money terms or stock terms. Big Ben might cut rates tonite, then what will happen?

Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

lafee

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Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - 09:13 pm:

current spi 5 min

Feels a bit better now that I'm only down 30 points.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

smallworld

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Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - 11:24 pm:

Big Ben has blinked or acted, 75 basis points cut has just taken place.

Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

lafee

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Post Number: 755
Registered: 04-2003