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     paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 21
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 20, 2008 - 08:05 am: |  
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Well perhaps the Feds are finished with their attempts at "manipulation" of the Markets . All that "rally" has done is added 49 points to March 14 Close . So we should now see another drop down to the 11854 level . Perhaps this time the Close will be well and truly below the level.
Using apparent H&S pattern in DOW Weekly get Target of 10860±
Using apparent H&S pattern in Daily get target of 11200 . Do believe that is Colin's downside target .
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2215
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 22, 2008 - 09:03 am: |
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From Simon Bond in an ABN AMRO Morgans newsletter:
"The universe is conspiring to make you succeed. Don't stand in it's way!"
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 862
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 22, 2008 - 09:38 am: |
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Hi Hershey
That's the plan, the question remains however, will the XAO follow suit now that the hedge funds are dumping commodities?
Regards
Kate
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 26
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 22, 2008 - 10:43 am: |
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The bottom line? Tuesday's "Double Nine-to-One" signal may not prove to be as reliable a signal as it has in the past. But the bulls can nevertheless console themselves that the burden of proof has shifted so that it's now the bears poking holes in the bullish argument rather than the other way around.
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=35466
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 198
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 01, 2008 - 05:47 pm: |
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Dear readers of this thread,
It is now 2 months into the "forecast" and guess what? Still nothing much has happened to the DJIA.
Just a reminder- my "predictions" were:
Bearish -11% change to approx 11,000
Very Bearish -30% change to approx 8,700
Bullish +22% change to approx 15,100
Realistic -2% change to approx 12,200
We are still at 12260. There has been no horrible crash (yet?) and the reason is that many of the Dow 30 are still holding up reasonably well SO FAR. But looking at each individual stock, there are quite a few that look vulnerable.
MMM going sideways on strong support level
AA going sideways on strong support level
AXP testing support, falling
AIG falling badly
T found support and recovered back above 30w MA
BAC testing support, falling
BA testing support, falling
CAT above 30w MA but maybe a H&S forming?
CVX testing support, falling slightly
C falling badly, looking for support
KO above 30w MA but maybe topping?
DIS hard to say
DD found support and recovered back above 30w MA
XOM topping?
GE going sideways on strong support level
GM fallen through support level -could be ugly
HPQ topping?
HD found support and recovered back above 30w MA (just?)
INTC going sideways on strong support level
IBM above 30w MA but maybe topping?
JNJ going sideways on strong support level
JPM trending down but not far from support
MCD maybe topping out or just a pause in the uptrend
MRK in trouble
MSFT going sideways on strong support level
PFE desperately clinging to support - could be ugly
PG looks OK. Rising relative strength
UTX might be a top, but not far from support
VZ ranging, not far from support
WMT bullish breakout
Stay tuned. I think the next month will see some big moves, but they may just cancel each other out to a large extent. All comments welcome.
See updated spreadsheet below for details.
Sway
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 37
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 13, 2008 - 10:24 am: |
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Sway : Is not your target of 11000 that you describe as a -11% correction actually a -22.5% correction if taken from the HIGH of 14198? Truly a BEAR correction.
Since January the DOW , with the aid of "manipulators" has been testing upper resistance Fib levels of 12749 and 12664 and on the downside support at 11854 and 11673 .
It would appear that we have had a final test of Resistance and now the target is once again in the correct direction . IF no further interference we may see the following in short order:
Close below 12163 - test of 11854
Close below 11407 - test of 11130 .
From the IGSS Gitano-Wagon
"And whether or not it is clear to you,
no doubt the universe is unfolding"
Regards,
Paddy
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 204
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 13, 2008 - 12:38 pm: |
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Paddy
I based my -11% on the change from the time I did the "forecast" at the end of January. As you recall, I purely looked at the 30 individual Dow stocks and their Weinstein stages and support/resistance levels.
Sway
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 38
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 14, 2008 - 01:01 am: |
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Sway : Wasn't disputing your numbers . Just a comment that when we reach your "bear" -11% it will be a real big bear .
Like this comment from a recent article :
" Q.: At what point in the Dow would a crash scenario become a possibility?
Bob Prechter: Any time it's open."
Regards,
Paddy
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 206
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 14, 2008 - 02:08 pm: |
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That's OK Paddy, no offence taken.
After 10 weeks, my "realistic" guess is still in play. Dow has barely moved (down 60pts or 0.5% or 0.3 ATRs)
Sway
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 234
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 20, 2008 - 02:06 pm: |
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Just an interim update.
The S&P500 is is also above its 30W WMA.
The bulls are bellowing.
Sway
(Message edited by sway on April 20, 2008)
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 235
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 20, 2008 - 02:20 pm: |
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Another view
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 237
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 20, 2008 - 04:06 pm: |
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Here is the S&P
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 250
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 26, 2008 - 10:49 am: |
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This is getting interesting. The Dow has convincingly rebounded off the bottom of its long term bull channel.
Financials (excepting BAC?), Walmart and IBM have rebounded strongly on good volume. Boeing and Home Depot seem to have found support. Caterpillar, McDonalds and the oil stocks in long term uptrends. Merck, Pfizer and GM still look vulnerable (perhaps the pr..oww...zac and v..eye..agra appetite is waning?) The rest pretty much going sideways on strong support levels. With this strength in the individual 30 stocks, I don't see anything to be bearish about.
I'll start posting weekly updates from now on.
Cheers
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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DJIA