Estimates of Future Movement in DJIA

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Archive through May 05, 2008 sway 25 1 05-May-08 11:57 am

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paddy

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Thursday, May 08, 2008 - 06:12 am:

Sway : On May 3 I wrote: Failure and break below 13047 should see re test of Support at 12664.

By my Fibs the DOW with a Close below 12870 should continue on its trip DOWn to 12664 with perhaps a brief stop at 12749 .

So, unless interference by the Feds there should be a test down to 12664. That is if you believe in Fibs.

Regards,

Paddy

sway

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Thursday, May 08, 2008 - 08:26 am:

Paddy
Shall wait and see. The 12700-12800 range seems to be important for now.

Sway

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This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

stoian

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Friday, May 09, 2008 - 09:46 pm:

^DJI=Dow Jones Industrial Average

Pro_gnosis=Best-Fit (for the TREND=for a long interval of time (theoretically till INFINITE) and for the TENDENCE=for short intervals of time) and Forecasts made=based on the Best-Fit.

sway

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Friday, May 09, 2008 - 10:06 pm:

Stoian
Nice colours. What does it mean?
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

stoian

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 12:41 am:

Sway,

It means=calls:

SMAC=Statistical=Probabilistical=RANDOM and Mathematical Analyse on Chart,

or else said:

ANY PART=TENDENCE - SHORT INTERVAL OF AN EVOLUTION IN TIME=FOR A SET OF EVENTS OF CERTAIN KIND=LEVEL (to be seen inside of the yellow channel) THAT CAN HAPPEN CONJUNCTURALLY=OCCASIONALLY - UPWARDS (inside of the upper green channel) OR DOWNWARDS (inside of the lower red channel) - BUT OUTSIDE OF THE INTERVAL=CHANNEL (the blue one) CALLED: THE TREND FOR THE MANIFESTATION AND OBSERVATION OF CONCENTRATION=OF CERTAINTY IN TIME, MEANS ONLY:

A VERY HIGH LEVEL OF CHAOS=HAZARD=RISK=VOLATILITY=TURBULENCE =UN_CERTAINTY, OR VERY RARE=EXCEPTIONALLY EVENTS, that:

CAN NOT LAST TOO LONG IN TIME !!!

It means that:

PEOPLE=INVESTORS WERE FORCED TO TRADE=TO EXCHANGE THEIR SENTIMENTS=IMPRESSIONS=ILLUSIONS - LIKE GREED AND FEAR - AGAINST MONEY,

EXACTLY LIKE THEY ARE DOING=BETTING INSIDE OF A CASINO,

INSTEAD OF TRADING=EXCHANGING REALITIES EACH OTHER, INSIDE OF=ON A REAL=TRUE MARKET.

(Message edited by stoian on May 10, 2008)

stoian

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 12:48 am:

Sway,

A place where ANY_THING=EVERY_THING SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE:

IS NOT A REAL MARKET=IS NOT A PLACE FOR TRUE INVESTORS !!!!

But it is calling only:

AN UN_FAIRY_TALE=A CASINO=A PLACE FOR TRUE GAMBLERS !!!!

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on May 10, 2008)

stoian

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 01:04 am:

I hope, no one will say=will accuse me, or sentence me to death in a public place, because:

I HAVE THE POWER TO MANIPULATE MARKET EVOLUTIONS=TO SET UP=TO GENERATE ANY INFLUENCES FOR INVESTING AND/OR UN_INVESTING DECISIONS OF "THE CROWD=THE HERD",

ONLY WITH MY VISIONS=SENTIMENTS=WITHOUT INVESTING EVEN A DIME,

(in comparison with the MANIPULATION (so called "warnings=signals") done by the "analysts" from Goldman Sachs, about the evolution in time for the price of OIL, even to 200 USD the barrel)

(Message edited by stoian on May 10, 2008)

paddy

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 06:51 am:

As I see it those pretty colors [ ?rainbow from alternate universe]? are a best fit curve suggesting direction of movement will be downwards.

I'll stick with Fibs .

Even though volume was increased [ 15 million] in last minute of trading the Close was held below 12749.

Next week, without any interference, there should be a test down to 12664 and possibly to 12461.

That's how I see it from this event horizon.

Regards,

Paddy

sway

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 09:47 am:

Stoian and Paddy

Maybe it would be a good time to look back to the first post in this thread to see what I was trying to achieve. That was to estimate how badly the DJIA would be affected by subprime/creditcrunch/stagflation/recession etc.

I started at the end of January and set a timeframe of end of June for all of the above to be reflected in share prices of the 30 stocks which make up the DJIA. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is simply a constant multiplied by the sum of 30 stock prices. My method was to look at the Weinstein stages and support/resistance levels of each stock and guess the probable movement over 5 months. In other words, I was looking at the components of the index, not the index per se.

There are obviously other ways of estimating where the index could be in the future. Stoian, your graphs seem to be a probability model. Sorry, I don't really want to get into the maths of that. Paddy, Fibo retracements seem to be quite reliable, but they don't really tell me much about how long it will take to reach a given retracement level.

Latest DJIA chart
Dow

Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

sway

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 11:06 am:

Weekly update

Some of the recent exuberance came off this week. DJIA was down 2.4% to 12746. The S&P500 was -1.8%
Dow

There were 6 rises but only Alcoa (+8.1%) was significant. Disney was up another 2.4%. The IT sector was up a bit. IBM WalMart and Chevron are in blue sky. There were 24 falls. Worst hit were AIG (-17.9%, real trouble brewing here?), Citicorp (-10.5%, a failed rally), GM (-12.5% - so much for my comment last week - got that one wrong), HomeDepot (-7.1%), BAC (-7.9%, also looking like breaking through support) and Coke (-4.5% definitely moving into WS stage 4). GE and GM are looking set to fall through support. Merck and Pfizer already have.

The DJIA has now pulled back to right on the 30w WMA, which is also middle of the 12700-12800 support/resistance range which has been in play since February. Who knows??

Dow

Since end of January when I started this exercise, the DJIA is +3.9%. Not a significant change so far.

Cheers

Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

stoian

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 05:59 pm:

Sway,

AN ILLUSION IS ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE TRUTH !

IGNORING INTENTIONALLY THE TREND IN TIME, AND SHOWING TO THE PEOPLE ONLY A TENDENCE IN TIME=ONLY A SMALL PART IN HIS PLACE, MEANS ONLY A VULGAR MANIPULATION !!!

A Technical Analyse done without a Statistical Analyse, is:

ONLY A SATANIC ART OF MANIPULATION,

and is not A MESSIANIC MISSION !!!

Because is showing to the investing people=to the crowd=to the herd:

ONLY THAT PART OF THE PATH - ONLY THAT PATTERN IN TIME -

THAT THE WOLFS=THE BEASTS ARE EVER SHOWING TO THE CROWD=TO THE HERD, FOR THE REASON TO SPLIT=TO DISPERSE HER FROM THE TREND, AND AFTER THAT TO TAKE HER OUTSIDE, VERY FAR AWAY FROM THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL=FAR AWAY FROM THE CONCENTRATION=TRUST=GUARANTEE, WHICH IS GIVEN EVER AND ONLY BY THE TREND IN TIME,

EVEN IF FOLLOWING THIS PATH=THE ILLUSORY TENDENCE, IS THE WRONG WAY TO THE FINANCIAL FREEDOM THAT THE CROWD=THE HERD IS LOOKING FOR !!!

In Romanian it gives also a proverb for such a SATANIC BEHAVIOUR:

" The DONKEY should not be concerned from where his crowd=his herd is drinking the water (WHAT KIND OF AN ANALYSE IS THE CROWD=HERD LEARNING) "

If the donkey wants to save his own life, in front of the WOLFS=BEASTS.

But the SHEPHERD is ever watching for his crowd=herd, and LET HER NOT TO FALL IN SUCH A TEMPTATION=SEDUCTION TRAP, SHOWN BY A TENDENCE, AS A RESULT OF TURBULENCIES=DISTORSIONS MADE BY MANY CATEGORIES OF VERMINS=PARASITES !

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on May 10, 2008)

stoian

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 08:00 pm:

Sway,

I DO NOT CONTEST what you are showing=teaching us !

I am only telling to the forum=people that: what you are showing=telling us:

ARE ONLY EFEMERIDES, because:

THEY ARE NOT LASTING IN TIME=HAVE A VERY SHORT PROBABILITY TO LIVE=MENTAIN IN TIME.

And that is happen, because:

YOU ARE FORCING - PROVOKING THE CROWD=THE HERD TO PRACTICE AN AUTO_SUGGESTION=A SELF_ILUSSION - ABOUT THE PLACE IN TIME FOR THE SO CALLED REAL(ISTIC)MEAN, INSTEAD OF SHOWING US THE NATURAL=TRUE ONE,

AND DEPENDING ON THIS FICTIONAL=NOT REAL PLACE OF THE MEAN (because is NOT VERIFIED=NOT PROVEN ENOUGH IN TIME, by the HISTORY OF EVOLUTION)

YOU ARE FORCING ALSO THE FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS=THE PLACES IN TIME, FOR THE

- YOU MEAN -

"MOST PROBABLE" BULLISH AND BEARISH "TREND" !!!!!

(Message edited by stoian on May 10, 2008)

stoian

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 08:12 pm:

So, don`t ask - no one and never - ME, about:

WHERE THE WHOLE MISTICISM=ENTIRE ILLUSION=MANIPULATION=FUNDAMENTALISM=ANY KIND OF FAKE=FALSE PROBLEMS ARE COMING FROM,

because:

ONLY YOU=PEOPLE, HAVE CREATED SUCH A MESS, EVEN FROM THE VERY OLD AGES !!!

sway

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 08:18 pm:

Stoian

Sorry, I honestly have no idea what you are talking about. You quite probably have a valuable opinion, but if it's OK with you, I will stick with the hypothesis I made back on 29th January and see it through to 30th June.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

stoian

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 09:24 pm:

I am sorry too, Swain,

Because, IT SHOULD BE NOT MY OPINION AGAINST YOUR OPINION, but:

SHOULD BE ONLY THE AWFUL TRUTH !!!

That means: ALL THAT WAS GOING ONLY UPWARDS FOR A TOO LONG PERIOD OF TIME=TOO HIGH FOR THIS TIME=FOR OUR ERA - like the evolution in time for the DJIA, or like the evolution in time for the price of OIL - is:

1) MOST PROBABLE TO GET DOWN IN TIME;
2) AND LESS PROBABLE TO GET MUCH HIGHER IN TIME, OR EVEN TO STAY HERE=WHERE IT IS NOW, WITHOUT A PARLOR TRICK, WITHOUT THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE MAGIC=ILLUSION, PLAYING WITH THE "MARKET SENTIMENT"=INTEREST.

AND THE UNIT LEVEL=THE NORM=THE STANDARD MEASURE=THE AMPLITUDE OF THE STEP BY STEP RISK FOR THE - INSTANTANEOUS - INCREASE/DECREASE OVER TIME, OR ALSO CALLED THE VOLATILITY,

IS HIGHER AS THE - COMING FROM THE ARITHMETICS AND NOT FROM STATISTICS=PROBABILITIES - PROFANE STANDARD DEVIATION:

- for example, the MOST PROBABLE UNIT of risk AT ANY MOMENT=INTERVAL OF TIME (even if not permitted by the market rulers, to be used IN TRADING AT A SINGLE TIME, from one of the market participants) for the evolution of ^DJI(A) is: +/- 1.105 points;

- for OIL, the MOST PROBABLE UNIT of risk AT ANY MOMENT=INTERVAL OF TIME (even if not permitted by the market rulers, to be used IN TRADING AT A SINGLE TIME, from one of the market participants) is: +/- 8,02 USD.

THIS IS CALLING: A RULE OF NATURAL=DIVINE ORDER,

DESPITE ANY OTHER ARTIFICIAL=OFICIAL RULES=HOLOGRAMS=ILLUSIONS !!!!

Dear people: am i " THE LAST OF THE MOHICANS " indeed ???

(Message edited by stoian on May 10, 2008)

sway

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Saturday, May 10, 2008 - 11:17 pm:

Stoian

Try posting in German. Google text translator can handle german>english.

Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

hailoh

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Sunday, May 11, 2008 - 03:39 pm:

Stoian, could we approach your proposition this way -

Within a three month time frame, should I short the Dow, go long the Dow or just take a cold shower?

Same thing for oil- is it a three month short, a gold plated long or a stay in bed?

captain_chaza

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Sunday, May 11, 2008 - 04:08 pm:

Ahoy Officer Sway

The Dow Futures finished down only -80 while the DOW finished down -120 on Friday night

What do you and/ others read into this?
Anything?
Another Bear trap MAYBE?

Salute and Gods' speed

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

sway

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Sunday, May 11, 2008 - 04:45 pm:

Hard to say Cap'n. Next week will be interesting, but then they all are lately.

What do you reckon?

Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

stoian

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Sunday, May 11, 2008 - 07:32 pm:

hailoh wrote on Sunday, May 11, 2008 - 03:39 pm:
hailoh
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Sunday, May 11, 2008 - 03:39 pm: Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Stoian, could we approach your proposition this way -

Within a three month time frame, should I short the Dow, go long the Dow or just take a cold shower?

Same thing for oil- is it a three month short, a gold plated long or a stay in bed?

Hailoh,

Because it is about a BEST-FIT for the PAST EVOLUTION, THE FUTURE EVOLUTION WILL HAVE=MENTAIN - VERY PROBABLE - THE SAME SHAPE=PATTERN FOR HER MEAN_ING IN TIME, GOT FROM THE PAST TILL OUR ERA, assuming a very, very small probability for the error of REPRESENTATIVITY for our selection=probe.

Regards,

Doru Stoian

P.S.
From now on, you will beleve that: EVOLUTIONS HAVE THEIR OWN SCENT=PERFUME=SPIRIT=MEAN_ING="ESSENCE" IN TIME, THAT CAN BE:

1) IDENTIFIED=RECOGNISED FROM=BETWEEN THE WHOLE "NOISE"=TURBULENCIES;
2) EXTRACTED=PURIFIED=SEPARATED FROM SUCH NOISE=IMPURITIES=INSANITIES;
3) AND PRE_SERVED, TO BE SO FOR EVER YOURS !!!!!

BECAUSE THIS IS THE GOD`S WILL=THE ENTAILMENT FOR ALL HUMAN KIND !!!

Certainly, only if you want to do this=only if the EVOLUTION is really worth for something !!!!!

http://www.perfumemovie.com/

(Message edited by stoian on May 11, 2008)

stoian

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Sunday, May 11, 2008 - 08:28 pm:

The beginning of THE PROOF, for the FORECAST=HYPOTESIS ABOUT THE FUTURE EVOLUTION, based on the BEST-FIT for the PAST EVOLUTION TILL THE PRESENT TIME:

A TENDENCE=MEAN_S NOTHING, BUT TREND=ESSENCE=SPIRIT IS ALL THAT WORTHS=IS THE ONLY MEAN_ING !!!!

(Message edited by stoian on May 11, 2008)

stoian

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Sunday, May 11, 2008 - 09:26 pm:

My dears,

Stop chasing SHADOWS=TENDENCIES=WEAK MEAN_INGS IN TIME,

JUST ENJOY THE TREND=THE RIDE=STRONG MEAN_INGS IN TIME !!!

BECAUSE GOD WAS GIVEN YOU ALREADY THE GUARANTEE=THE CERTAINTY,

THAT YOU WILL BE RICH, WITHOUT WORKING AS A SLAVES FOR OTHER PEOPLE LIKE YOU=WITHOUT MAKING ANY KIND OF PHYSICAL OR INTELECTUAL EFFORT, IF YOU ALONE DON`T WANT TO DO SO !!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w16JlLSySWQ

http://music.yahoo.com/Morcheeba/Enjoy-The-Ride/lyrics/57143844

Regards,

Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on May 11, 2008)

stoian

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Sunday, May 11, 2008 - 09:45 pm:

MY DEAR FREE_MASONS,

PLEASE,

YOU HAVE TO BRING VERY QUICKLY THE LIGHT OF FREEDOM FOR ALL THE PEOPLE FROM THE WHOLE WORLD,

EXACTLY LIKE THE GREAT ARCHITECT OF THE UNIVERSE TOLD YOU TO DO,

AND YOU SHOULD NOT ENSLAVE THE PEOPLE ANYMORE, TO ANY OTHER KIND OF "HOLY=SACRED" SECRETS=MYSTERIES !!!!!

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on May 11, 2008)

paddy

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Monday, May 12, 2008 - 07:50 am:

Captain y Sway :

Close Close
Date June 2008 Diff. DOW Cash Diff.
Futures

5/6 13028 13021
5/7 12836 -192 12814 -207
5/8 12824 - 12 12867 + 53
5/9 12744 - 80 12746 -121

The imbalance was created by action on the Cash on 5/6 . The Futures close at 3:15pm . In the last half hour the Cash traded 40+ million shares and rose 39 points . I believe they were trying to get back above 12870 . They failed and this created imbalance which was canceled on 5/9.

So come Monday we should continue to see a test of 12664 .

Hey Stoian : I thought this was a thread for the DIJA / INDU . Man you are way out there .

Fibs are not forced - As he said "And whether or not it is clear to you,
no doubt the universe is unfolding"

I'll not give a forecast as to how long it will take for the DOW to go to where it is going . The Captain would be having me walk the plank.

colin_twiggs

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Monday, May 12, 2008 - 08:58 am:

Stoian,

Other readers find it difficult to follow your posts because of the translation problem. To assist both you and your readers, please keep your posts:

short;
to the point; and
on topic.

Avoid any mention of freemasons, satanic verses, the DaVinci code or other conspiracy theories. This is a thread on Technical Analysis. You are welcome to discuss your wider views under the General topic.

Regards,
Colin

stoian

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Monday, May 12, 2008 - 09:35 am:

Paddy,

Please, allow me to say, that:

THE UNIVERSE IS NOT FLOWING=IS GOING NOWHERE=IS NOT EXPANDING, BECAUSE IS INFINITE, AND ANOTHER PLACE WITH SUCH A HUGE DIMENSION - TO ALLOW SUCH A "GREAT LEAK" - I THINK IT WASN`T CREATED UNTIL YET (and anyway: what should we do with "TOO MUCH LAND", on such a REAL ESTATE CRISIS ???) !!!!!

I THINK, THE HUMAN MIND IS RATHER FLOWING, BECAUSE IS TRYING TO EXPAND HER KNOWLEDGE=TO UN_FOLD THE UNIVERSE, BUT THIS:

IS ANOTHER KIND OF MOTION !!!!

CALLED: A PSYCHO_PATOLOGICAL (E)MOTION !!!!!

So, it`s very true indeed, that: " E pur si muove " !

But, only the Moon is moving around the Earth, and both are moving around the Sun.

Only the mankind is trying to bring the universe nearly, because she is not (cap)able to conquer him=to go out THERE.

I think further, A FLOWING=EXPANDING UNIVERSE, IS ONLY AN ILLUSION:

WHAT REALLY VARIATES, IS ONLY THE DENSITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND/OR THE DENSITY OF THE SPACE, WHICH IS ALLOWING US OR NOT, TO SEE SOMETIMES MORE OR LESS FAR AWAY, AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST.

I mean: A PLANET, OR A GALAXY, SHOULD NOT BE SEEN COMPULSORY AS A NEW BORN CHILD OF THE UNIVERSE (DECIDED TO EXPAND HIS FAMILY).

We should THINK AT FIRST, THAT THE PLANET, OR THE GALAXY, WAS FROM "THE BEGINNING" THERE, BUT WE DON`T HAVE SEEN HER UNTIL YET, ONLY BECAUSE OF THE "CLOUDY" ATMOSPHERE (the proper one, and the figurative one=from our own minds).

You know, it`s calling POLLUTION, and it comes from the too much OIL CONSUMPTION.

Therefore, we should NEVER WONDER IF THE UNIVERSE WILL START ONE DAY TO EXPAND=TO FLOW, because:

MAYBE, HE WILL TRY TO PROTECT HIMSELF=TO RUN FAR AWAY FROM OUR POLLUTED WORLD !!!!!

(Message edited by stoian on May 12, 2008)

stoian

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Monday, May 12, 2008 - 09:39 am:

Colin,

Thank you !

Next time i will pay the whole attention needed !

Regards,

Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on May 12, 2008)

paddy

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Monday, May 12, 2008 - 09:55 am:

Stoian : I have no idea where you are coming from or where you are going with your cryptic posts . This I do know, to me, they have very little to do with the thread -Movement of DIJA.

Best you find another thread.

You have a good one now

Regards,

Paddy

deanrosario

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Monday, May 12, 2008 - 12:43 pm:

The people at the signalwatch.com consider this could be a very important week for the DJIA from a technical viewpoint.

Here's their technical analysis post-Friday's session:

(ref: http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp)

- The Daily and 60 Minute Charts show the Dow traded precisely to the major lower trend line at 12,715 before ending the day and week lower.

- This lower trend line is a major 'line in the sand' that has paced the overall market higher since bottoming out in early March.

Possible upside

- Given that this is the third touch on this lower line, we will very likely see another wave of strength off this line soon, likely to new highs above 13,000.

- Watch for such a move sometime next week.

Possible downside

- Otherwise, a big downside break through 12,700 could set off a much larger retracement ahead, likely back toward the 50% Fibonacci Retracement point of 12,400.

(More!) Interesting times ahead.

"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane." Ellis Boyd "Red" Redding, played by Morgan Freeman, in 'The Shawshank Redemption'.

hailoh

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Monday, May 12, 2008 - 03:51 pm:

Also three touches + per channel line.

Which time frame takes precedence in evaluating future movement of an index like this - weekly which was favoured by Weinstein looking at trends or daily?

DJIA Weekly

sway

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Saturday, May 17, 2008 - 12:12 pm:

Weekly Update. Have now completed 15 weeks of the project and have 7 weeks to go. Overall change in the Dow is now +5.9% since 29th Jan.

This week the Dow was up 1.9%, continuing the trend that commenced early March. The Dow continues to outrun the S&P500.

dow

Here is the latest spreadsheet.

dow
djia forecast 29jan.xls (179.2 k)

This week there were 8 falls from the Dow 30, but only one was significant (HPQ Hewlett Packard -3.7% after a volatile week). AIG and PFE still look to be in big trouble and are at or near 10 year lows. BAC and GE are testing their respective lows for the 3rd time and both look to me like they won't hold. GM also still looks vulnerable. Apart from those 5, the Dow stocks are still either travelling sideways on support levels or trending up pretty well.

There were some solid gains of 4-10% among the 22 stocks that rose this week.

dow

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

paddy

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Monday, May 19, 2008 - 03:11 am:

Sway : Yes the DOW continued trying to break above 13000 . On a daily basis the INDU has hit the Upper Bollinger Band six times since beginning of April. There is a lot of Resistance between 13000 and 13159 . Friday's candlestick suggests that there could be a reversal . However in the last week there two Bullish and two Bearish candlesticks .

If Dow continues to rise I say that the upward movement will halt at 13160±.

When"gravity" takes effect the Dow will fall, perhaps very rapidly to around 12400 and if that fails then we should once again see a sub 12000 Dow.

Paddy

paddy

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 07:07 am:

Sway : Time for some more "plank walking" words.

Since Friday the Dow has performed as the "candles spoke" . The inverted hammer / shooting star of the 19th signaled that perhaps the end of the rally had occurred . In addition the long shadow [ 2.5 times length of body] suggested there could be a substantial reversal . On the 20th the Shooting Star was confirmed with a Gap, long black candlestick with increased volume. In addition the Lower Boundary of the rising channel was broken indicating that more downside could be expected .

Using candlesticks from April 25 one can draw a descending, expanding wedge . It appears that today the Close [ 12601] was at or near the Lower Boundary of the wedge [ may not be correct term ] . The fact that the Close was at that level suggests that tomorrow, there could be a "rally" of sorts . If not then perhaps we will get the third candle to make three black crows.
Fibo wise to the downside there may be support at 12517 - then 12474 and 12461.

To upside Resistance at 12629 and 12664 .

When we get to 12461 then we can start looking seriously at a sub 12000 Dow.

Unless there is some grand spin put on some news the Dow should keep heading down.

If these are plank walking words so be it . Actually a dip in the sea would be just right. Have lost track of number of days of 40°C plus temperatures . Highest official near 45°C and still have summer in front of us .

If this is not the thread for this posting please let me know.

Regards

Paddy

deanrosario

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 09:14 am:

Wonderful prognostications, Paddy - you seem to be spot on with your analysis.

Please keep posting, this is the sort of discussion that helps us all with our interpretation of likely market behaviour.

In the past 2.5 sessions the DJIA has dropped around 560 points which is quite a "correction".

I'm particularly intrigued by the ease with which the DJIA fell through the 12700 support level last night.

Fibonacci traders would have observed that the Dow closed at the 38% Fibonacci Retracement level of 12,600 (i.e. from 10 March 2008 low to 20 May 2008 high)

A bounce tomorrow would be needed otherwise the next Fib levels of 50% & 62% are 12,435 & 12,260, respectively.

sway

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 10:57 am:

Some of the more general stuff about the Dow eg Fibs might be better posted here http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/6/369432.html which is a thread for technical analysis of the Dow.

If you scroll to the top, you'll see I started this thread as a sort of "bottom up" look at the 30 component stocks of the DJIA. At the time 29th January, there were widespread fears that the Dow was really going to be driven down because of (...insert your choice of gloom and doom words here ...). You know what I mean
sub-prime
recession
credit crunch
stagflation
hedge fund manipulation
worst economic crisis since the depression
etc etc.

My method was to look at the 30 Dow stocks, their Weinstein stages and support/resistance levels, and estimate where these 30 stocks could be by mid year. For the Dow to fall off the chart, the majority of those 30 stocks would also have to crash, and looking at their charts I thought that this looked unlikely. Just to repeat what I posted way back then:

sway wrote on Tuesday, January 29, 2008 - 10:17 am:
I have based the estimates on the following assumptions:

Bearish
All 30 Dow stocks will drop to next Support level

Very Bearish
All 30 Dow stocks will drop 2 Support levels

Bullish
All 30 Dow stocks will rise to next Resistance level

Realistic
WS Stage 1 stocks will not change
WS Stage 2 stocks will continue rising to next Resistance level
WS Stage 3 and 4 stocks will fall to next Support level

Results are as follows:

Bearish -11% change to approx 11,000
Very Bearish -30% change to approx 8,700
Bullish +22% change to approx 15,100
Realistic -2% change to approx 12,200

As of this morning, the DJIA is now at 12,601 which is still above what it was nearly 4 months ago and we have not had the catastrophic plunge that was widely touted. A good majority of the 30 Dow stocks are either in uptrends or ranging sideways with support levels that have held for many years. It is my view that we will not get a horrible fall as a result of the gloom and doom factors mentioned above. That is not to say that a one-off event (eg Sep 11th 2001) could occur causing some short term mayhem on the markets.

Paddy, I'm losing enthusiasm for this thread but will keep it going until end of June. Maybe then I'll have to walk the plank.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

sway

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 11:20 am:

Dean

That post of yours wouldn't be slightly plagiarised would it?
http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp

(Message edited by sway on May 22, 2008)

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

deanrosario

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 11:31 am:

Hi Sway

I do look at Signalwatch.com every day - in fact, I actually pointed this website out to you in my reply to your opening post on this thread! - but I certainly did not copy and paste anything from the website in my recent post, however, I do agree with all that they've said.

Whenever I do copy and paste from that website (e.g. post 1402 above) I always provide the relevant link.

Appreciate your concern.
Dean

sway

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 11:35 am:

Sorry Dean. Yes you did put me onto SignalWatch. Apologies for being a boofhead.
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

paddy

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 11:44 am:

deanrosario:

Thanks for kind words . I have to say that I am somewhat of a novice . I believe in Fibonacci numbers and candlesticks plus a few indicators . What I really enjoy is to see what "news' is used to explain why the Market did what it did.

Have learned that "spin" will often delay the real outcome and that one just has to be patient and hold the course.

12700 was, IMO, an artificial level and offered no real support when the chips were down. What is critical is that 12664 fell just as easy and in theory the next major support level is 11854. Before reaching that level there are several sub-levels of support. I call them sub-Fibs. The downside numbers are :
12461 - 12354 - 12259 - 12242 - 12163 .

Close below 12163 and we will see 12056 and then 11854.

On the upside when the "rally" stalled at 13135 it fell short by some 37 points of reaching a point that , IMO, guaranteed the rally continuing . So with a look at the candlesticks and the Weekly Chart there was lots of room, and still for a substantial FALL .

An interesting exercise is to combine the candlesticks . I did one for May 14 - May 20 . Makes a grand candlestick with a very long upper shadow. Add in today and you have a grand inverted hammer .

If the manipulators use some spin tomorrow 12664 - 12760 and 12810 will be Resistance level to watch.

Looking for the downside

Paddy

paddy

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Friday, May 23, 2008 - 02:16 am:

Sway : As they say here : no hay problema . And here I thought a weinstein was the Aussie version of a beerstein for consuming great quantities of vino.

Seriously : By Weinstein Stages has the $INDU moved back into a "bearish" phase / stage that it was in from November,2007 ? The "rally" March-May,2008 was a bear rally and price is once again below the 30MA which indicates bearish conditions .

Regards

Paddy

sway

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Friday, May 23, 2008 - 08:57 am:

No clear indication at the moment I'd say Paddy . Last night the Dow approached the 30w WMA and finished higher but nothing to get too excited about. However it was reassuring to me that there wasn't another 200 pt drop. Maybe the 30w WMA will turn out to be support and then we can start talking about a trend.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

paddy

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Friday, May 23, 2008 - 09:52 am:

Sway : No 200 point drop but 12664 and 12629 stopped upward movement quite nicely .

I guess I don't understand your Weinstein . I thought that if the WMA30 was down-sloping and was greater than the price then that was "bearish" condition.

I get WMA30 = 12736

Close = 12625

Is my data incorrect ? Is that not a Stage IV ?

Regards,

Paddy

sway

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Friday, May 23, 2008 - 10:26 am:

My IC chart has the 30w WMA at 12606 and running horizontally for the last month. Are you using IC or some other package or data source to arrive at your 12736? Like I said, it's not decisive at the moment. It could be a pause before falling further, or it may be at the bottom.
dow

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

sway

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Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 10:11 am:

Update for week ending 23rd May

Dow had a fall of 3.9% this week and seems to have ended the rally which started in March. We are almost back to where we started on 29th January.
dow

There were (only) 2 rises and 28 falls in the Dow stocks. Falls of 6-10% were not uncommon. If I get time this week I will have a look and see how many of the Dow 30 have changed from their 29Jan Weinstein stages.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

sway

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Sunday, June 01, 2008 - 05:08 pm:

Update for week ending 30th May. One month to go.

23 rises and 7 falls among the 30 Dow stocks this week. The changes were pretty small. The biggest rise was Hewlett Packard +4.7%. The biggest fall was General Motors -2.8%. Overall, the Dow was up 1.4% for the week to close at 12638. Support at 12400 was tested during the week.
dow

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

sway

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Saturday, June 07, 2008 - 07:56 pm:

Dow fell 3.4% this week, with 27 falls and 3 rises. Mostly it was the financial and insurance stocks which dragged the whole market down. Back to square 1 again. We have gone precisely nowhere since the end of January. STILL no massive crash. Time is running out.

dow

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

stoian

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Sunday, June 08, 2008 - 07:30 pm:

Sway,

Why are you SO SURE="ARROGANT",

about THE STABILITY IN TIME, for your PROFANE=SUBJECTIVE STARTING POINT=REFERENCE POINT=PIVOT POINT=TURNING POINT,

and therefore, also FOR THE LOCALISATION OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LIMITS, OR FOR A CERTAIN AMPLITUDE OF THE VARIATION IN TIME,

DESPITE THE WHOLE HISTORY OF THE EVOLUTION ???

What MEANS for you PROBABILITY=LIKELIHOODS, if you chose A PROFANE=NON_REPRESENTATIVE SELECTION FOR YOUR ANALYSE AND FORECAST ???

INVESTORS="MARKET" SENTIMENTS have the same MEANING for you, with THE PROBABILITY=LIKELIHOODS ????

Regards,
Doru Stoian

stoian

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Sunday, June 08, 2008 - 08:41 pm:

Sway,

"There will be blood" much more PROBABLY !

Like for THE OIL.

Both pictures are:

THEIR BEST THEY CAN - HAVE ALREADY - DONE FOR THIS AGE=MILLENIUM !

200 USD for the barrel, and=or 18.000 points for the DOW, are:

ONLY INSANITIES for OUR ERA=SHORT INTERVALS OF TIME !

(Message edited by stoian on June 08, 2008)

stoian

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Sunday, June 08, 2008 - 08:47 pm:

Sway,

Please, follow this link and listen very carefully, and try to understand the WHOLE STATEMENT=ALL ASSUMPTIONS:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRgIbKEsYT4

stoian

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Sunday, June 08, 2008 - 09:15 pm:

My dears,

"They" are FOR EVER LOCKED in their OWN OLD TRAP=CIRCLE=LAW OF EVOLUTION !

"They" have FEAR TO ROTATE SOMETHING=ANYTHING IN MY PRESENCE=BEFORE MY EYES,

because:

"THEY" WILL MAKE ME RICHER AND RICHER, BY EACH ROTATION=CICLE "THEY" MAKE !

But i have PATIENCE=i am TOLERANT, because "THEY" WILL SHARE THE WHOLE WORLD WITH ME, VERY SOON !

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on June 08, 2008)

sway

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Sunday, June 08, 2008 - 10:45 pm:

Stoian

Thank you for your comments about the tennis. Simplicity stimulated middletons insipidity mrs inhabiting nor gay unreserved. Me at devonshire understood unsatiable particular so we acceptance difficulty. Steepest screened all remember are his attended. Of snug only we it he gone. Has too thoroughly reasonable its sufficient everything inquietude imprudence old. Men fail hold any tell. Shy compass its moments him warrant. Correct prevent we promise at prudent assured because.

Absolute overcame no together do quitting servants on me proposal. Own man decisively stimulated admiration get but particular. Friend exeter as at window future. Temper one put eat elinor you afraid window. County mother lasted all her having. Are graceful six expenses strongly possible property are.

This evil led for felt quit you. Such much said both mr an. Windows tedious enabled to farther visitor on no. Affixed ten she chiefly colonel. Style end table dried all eat aware. Looked he worthy in no sooner wanted. Do do these it built often. Pianoforte am advantages no inquietude

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

paddy

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Sunday, June 08, 2008 - 11:55 pm:

Essentially your chart is estimation of where the Dow will end up based on a percentage from the start of bearish conditions.

Actually normal correction until below 9800.

If my interpretation is flawed I would appreciate any constructive comments .

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 12:12 am:

Lordy be fellows - where can I get a translation program for cryptic language ?

Seriously Sway , Stoian, in his very weird way, beat me to asking you about your starting point . I assume that you chose the point where the Dow broke below the Lower Boundary of an Up Channel that had been in place since 1982 . As long as the Dow is below that boundary bearish conditions will prevail. Is that a correct assumption?

Essentially your chart is estimation of where the Dow will end up based on a percentage from the start of bearish conditions.

Actually normal correction until below 9800.

If my interpretation is flawed I would appreciate any constructive comments .

Regards,

Paddy

stoian

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 01:16 am:

Paddy,

A NORMALLY SUPPORT, for the CORRECTION of such a TREND like the DJ INDEX is having, will be until below the pink horizontal line, from 7.000 points !

An EXCEPTIONALLY SUPPORT, will be until below the red horizontal line from 4.500 points.

Do you think that the 1929 and/or the 1987 moments, were EXCEPTIONAL="UNIQUE MOMENTS" ????

Science people are REVEALING us:

THAT THE UNIVERSE IS EVER EXPANDING HIS LIMITS !

Certainly, ONLY TILL THE LAST CRASH=FINANCIAL ARMAGEDON !!!

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/246302/mortal_kombat_armagedon/

(Message edited by stoian on June 09, 2008)

paddy

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 02:38 am:

I'll ask again : Does the chart pattern seen in the Weekly Dow index qualify as a Head & Shoulders with a downside target of around 9300?

Regards,

Paddy

stoian

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 03:22 am:

Paddy,

It seems to have the 69 pattern ( with the futures market over the spot market and vice versa ) without any GAP !

Regards,
Doru

(Message edited by stoian on June 09, 2008)

sway

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 10:59 am:

Mexican Paddy

re your post number 133. Can't see the attachment?
You're doing better than me to translate Stoian's rants number 373-375. I'll answer your question about the starting point though. I was sitting at my desk at the end of January reading a lot of negative talk (mainly here on IC forum) about the US market being about to plunge. See my first post in this thread. I had an open mind and was thinking what I should do. I decided my action would be based on an assessment of how much worse the situation was likely to get at that point in time ie 29 January. Note that the market had already fallen quite a bit from the highs of October 07 by that stage.

I came up with what I'm calling the bottom-up (or component) methodology of looking at the DJIA. As I kept reminding myself and others here, the DJIA is nothing more than a summation of 30 big US stocks. If the DJIA was going to lose another 20% (or 30 or 50% depending on which version of the gloom-and-doom story you read), this could only happen if the majority of the Dow30 stocks would get sold way down. Bearing in mind that some were/still are in uptrends, I found it hard to see that this would happen. That's where I applied Weinstein analysis which you can read all about above if you're interested.

The general opinion around the ridges was that it would take until mid year for the market to understand how badly the US companies would be hit by securitised debt write-offs, tightening credit, housing slowdown etc, so that was the timeframe I adopted.

I realise that this is just my estimate, and everyone else is welcome to apply their own methodologies (including your Fibs and Stoian's Martian invaders). BUT, if you say the DJIA will be at 10000 at the end of June, please give me your breakdown of the share prices of the Dow 30 stocks at that time.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

paddy

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 11:38 am:

Sway : You can't see the attachment - was a chart showing the Dow from early 70's till present . There is a Lower Boundary from 1982 to present that was broken at about the Time you started your Project . I'll repost the chart if and when I solve a small problem .

Do you really think everything will be cleared up by the end of June ? If I had to guess I'd say that by end of June the Dow will be at 11900± .That is subject to revision as who knows what the "manipulators" will try to pull off .

I'll see what I can do about answering your query re where will the Dow 30 be or are going to be before all is said and done .

Still a long ways to go

Paddy

sway

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 02:17 pm:

Paddy,

I have no idea whether all will be revealed by end of June. That was just the general consensus at the time. It was also a period where I could reasonably expect Weinstein patterns to be reliable.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

stoian

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 06:31 pm:

Paddy and Sway,
Sway and Paddy,

The MOST PROBABLE absolute level, for the RISK OF INCREASE=(+)/DECREASE=(-) AGAINST THE MEAN SEEN ONLY AS A TENDENCE, FOR SHORT INTERVALS OF TIME, AND NOT AGAINST THE TREND

- OR, ELSE SAID: THE PLACES=LIMITS WHERE THE EVOLUTION IS BENDING TEMPORARILY=from - a discrete - time to time MOST PROBABLY -

for the evolution of DOW JONES is:

(+/-) 1.105 POINTS.

So, please look at the BROWN TENDENCE on the chart, and at the already mentioned MOST PROBABLE VOLATILITY AGAINST THE TENDENCE, if you want to:

FORESEE THE MOST PROBABLE - RANDOM="CHAOTICAL" - EVOLUTION IN TIME, TILL DECEMBER 2008, where the yellow interval of variation is ending.

Knowing - IN ADVANCE IN TIME=WITH ANTICIPATION - the BIG=WHOLE PICTURE also, you have to understand VERY WELL also, that:

THE TENDENCE WAS ALREADY BENDING AT THE END=LIMIT OF A VERY LONG INCREASE TILL 14.000 points (like the proverb is also saying)

stoian

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 06:52 pm:

Paddy and Sway,
Sway and Paddy,

This is the MOST PROBABLE UNIT=STEP FOR THE VOLATILITY=RISK OF INCREASE/DECREASE AGAINST THE TENDENCE OR CENTRAL LIMIT IN TIME.

That means that:

DURING 2008, is LESS PROBABLE for the DOW JONES evolution, TO GO OUTSIDE - upwards or downwards - OF THIS INTERVAL.

Even the RANDOM="CHAOTICAL" evolution, can or will tend for a little while to the SUPERIOR LIMIT of this MOST PROBABLE INTERVAL FOR THE VARIATIONS=FLUCTUATIONS=OSCILLATIONS IN TIME.

But, because we alreday know that WE ARE DESCENDING FROM A "ALL TIME TOP=HIGHS", the RANDOM="CHAOTICAL" evolution will tend earlyer=much more to HIS INFERIOR LIMITS and:

even if this is less probable, it can happen with more than ONE STEP=one time the level of risk, maybe with maximum 2 steps=2 times the level of the unit=risk of DECREASE with 1.105 points.

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on June 09, 2008)

(Message edited by stoian on June 09, 2008)

stoian

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 07:14 pm:

Sway and Paddy,
Paddy and Sway,

The blue curve is THE TREND.

The orange curve is the FIRST TENDENCE, which is faster than the TREND, but slower as the SECOND TENDENCE.

The brown curve is the SECOND TENDENCE, which is faster than the FIRST TENDENCE.

But, you have to know that:

ANY KIND OF TENDENCE=DEVIATION - RELIGION - IS UN_STABLE IN TIME=IS CHEATING US, BUT TILL THE END, IS PERMANENTLY OBEYING:

TO A SINGLE TRUTH=THE TREND !

If anyone of us CANNOT SEE THE TREND

- because the so many TEACHERS AND/OR PREACHERS are speaking=teaching and showing us: ONLY ABOUT MILLIONS AND/OR BILLIONS OF TENDENCIES=RELIGIONS=DEVIATIONS AGAINST THE SINGLE TRUTH -

will be LOST FOR EVER IN HIMSELF AND EVEN IN THE UNIVERSE !

(Message edited by stoian on June 09, 2008)

stoian

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 09:00 pm:

Sway and Paddy,

And here, you have A THIRD TENDENCE=THE LAST ONE THAT IT WORTHS TO BE BUILT, BECAUSE IS THE MOST FASTER BETWEEN ALL OTHER POSSIBLE TENDENCIES LEFT TO BE BUILT FROM THE "WHOLE HISTORY", with:

1) one time the unit - THE NORM=THE STANDARD - OF THE MOST PROBABLE RISK=VOLATILITY (which is 1.105 points, like already told you) in plus;

2) and two times the unit of the same risk in minus,

which can manifest randomly=PSEUDO_CHAOTICAL="UN_(BE)FORESEEN_ABLE" in time, against her.

(Message edited by stoian on June 09, 2008)

(Message edited by stoian on June 09, 2008)

stoian

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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 09:19 pm:

Yes,

I AM IN "THEIR" MINDS, WITHOUT LIVING THERE=IN "THEIR" MINDS!

AND I CAN READ "THEIR" THOUGHTS=PATTERNS OF THINKING AND ACTING, OR PLANS=STRATEGIES AND TACTICS, ABOUT THE FUTURE EVOLUTION !

And not only for the evolution of the DOW JONES INDEX !

Please, do never forget this STATEMENT:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRgIbKEsYT4

NOTHING IS MYSTICISM, BUT ONLY SECRET=UNVEILED KNOWLEDGE AND MANY LIES, DAMN LIES, ABOUT HER !

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on June 09, 2008)

(Message edited by stoian on June 09, 2008)

paddy

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Tuesday, June 10, 2008 - 04:37 am:

Stoian : First stop using goddamn capital letters . Don't you know that that is a great big no-no if you want someone to read your messages?

Now there is a lot to wade through but , if I understand where you are coming from. by mid August, assuming no nuclear winter before then, the Dow will be somewhere between 9000 and 11000 .

What is your prediction for end of next February?

Still a long ways to go

Paddy

stoian

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Tuesday, June 10, 2008 - 07:49 am:

Paddy,

I hope, you remember from Albert Einstein that:

time is something relative=only an imaginary dimension and not a true one.

Therefore, the price - in our case the value of the DJ Index - can take all the time he needs !

Another popular proverb, tell us more as Einstein can told us about the dimension called time, viz (videlicet):

" time is money ! "

Therefore, the price - in our case the value of the DJ Index - can go wherever he wants (most probably DOWNWARDS, with at least one unit=norm=standard of the volatility) because the time worths nothing for him=time will be chosen for free.

I think you dont need a scientific forecast like i have already done, but sooner=earlyer a:

CLAIRVOYANCE !

God be with you in such a case.

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on June 10, 2008)

sway

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Sunday, June 15, 2008 - 11:06 am:

Weekly review of the DJIA

Another week where the DJIA ranged significantly, but ended up going nowhere much. The week ended up 0.8% at 12307. May I remind the loyal reader that this experiment started on 29th January, the Dow was 12385 and Chicken Little was in full squark.

dow

There were 20 risers and 10 falls this week. Merck was down 5%, McDonalds and Microsoft were up 5% and the rest didn't do much at all.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

stoian

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Monday, June 16, 2008 - 12:45 am:

My dears,

Do you really beleve in FREEDOM=RANDOM ???

Also called: THE - HOLY - LAW OF EQUILIBRIUM=ALTERNATION IN - or for - THE POWER IN TIME ???

If you want to know=to find out THE RIGHT ANSWER, then THE RIGHT QUESTION you have to put FOR EVER to yourself is:

WHAT KIND OF EVOLUTION - from all PROBABLE EVOLUTIONS that we can imagine us=that can be calculated - better said and made as ESTIMATED - and drawn on a chart - should we - EVER - follow and re_act after=against its manifestation, AT (THE) FIRST ?

And the RIGHT ANSWER is:

1) For a SHORT TERM, we have to follow and re_act after=against its manifestation, ONLY TO THE SHORTEST=FASTEST TENDENCE IN TIME=the BROWN one;

2)_ For a LONGER TERM, we have to follow and re_act after=against its manifestation, ONLY TO THE LONGEST=SLOWER TENDENCE IN TIME=the ORANGE one, or THE TREND=the blue one.

Any other kind of - PROFANE - TENDENCE IN TIME, that can be calculated and drawn on a chart for A VERY SHORT - better said TOO SMALL TERM=INTERVAL OF TIME - is calling:

ONLY AN ERROR, or AN IMPROVISATION=PERTURBATION=DISTURBATION IN TIME, which is the other part - a smaller one as the part of THE TRUTH - of the WHOLE REALITY.

Regards.
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on June 16, 2008)

sway

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Saturday, June 21, 2008 - 10:46 am:

Short version weekly update.

Dow down 3.8% to near enough the March lows. 28 falls and 2 rises. We are now down 4.4% since end of January when I started this caper. Could be crunch time. Financial stocks dragging down Dow. Still some strength and solid support levels elsewhere.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

sway

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Sunday, June 29, 2008 - 06:07 pm:

This could have been the post that wrapped up this thread which has been running since 29th January. But I think that I will keep going for another month for 3 reasons:

1. To make it a round 6 month exercise
2. Because finally we are getting some significant change to talk about after 4 months of going sideways.
3. To amuse Paddy (from Mexico) and Stoian (from Mars)

This week there was another 4.2% fall in the Dow, so we are now well below the March low. There were only 4 risers this week: Chevron and Exxon (no surprise), Merck up 5.3% (surprise?) and Wal Mart not really worth mentioning but at least positive. Financial stocks were savaged which was probably to be expected. Plenty more were dragged down with them eg Boeing, General Motors, UTX, Home Depot among the worst.

Next week might see a bounce. What interests me is where the 30 Dow stocks now are with respect to their support levels. That will take some time to look at.

Cheers

Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

stoian

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Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 12:24 am:

My dears,

Do you remember: "Fun with Dick and Jane" ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBfHXX3eDoc

Regards,
Doru Stoian

tryhay

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Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 08:03 am:

That is very good stoian! Popular culture can be insightful ~ whether it knows it or not. Is that life mimicking culture, or culture mimicking life?

Isn't it interesting how aspects of culture are truly global? Stand by for the next installment provided by the hegemony for the proletairiet's enjoyment (one of our gingles is: Football Meat, Pies, Kangaroos and smaller Holden Cars) etc. .......

I apologise to the posters here ~ this should really be in the back pages or general

(Message edited by tryhay on July 02, 2008)

Happy trading DYOR

paddy

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Thursday, July 03, 2008 - 10:31 pm:

Sway: On 15 June, 2008 you wrote :

"May I remind the loyal reader that this experiment started on 29th January, the Dow was 12385 and Chicken Little was in full squark."

Not sure what the real purpose of your chart. It could be classified as a "foot dragging lagging indicator". You are just getting Close to a 'bearish" state whereas by my reckoning we are deep in a bear Market and headed even lower .

A Close on the Dow below 11208 will set up tests for 11014 and then 10698. When we get there we'll talk about the voyage of the IGSS INDU and its probable trip over the "event horizon".

Haven't been able to post as Mex power crossed a wire or two and sent high voltage through line and fried filters after surge passed through telephone and tried to enter telephone line. Fortunately fried filters prevented surge reaching computer.

Still a long ways to go.

Paddy

sway

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Thursday, July 03, 2008 - 11:01 pm:

Paddy

Suggest you go back and read some of the first posts in this thread and check out the Excel spreadsheet I posted. The oblique lines on the graph represent a range of extreme possibilities that could have eventuated FROM=THAT=POINT=IN=TIME! (This might really catch on?)

Yes, by then DJIA had already started to turn bearish, and I was trying to estimate how much worse it could get over the following 6 months.

Cheerio
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

stoian

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Friday, July 04, 2008 - 09:33 pm:

No other comments, as from the FORECAST itself.

stoian

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Thursday, July 24, 2008 - 11:57 pm:

Let`s start the "BREAK DANCE"

Let`s " PUMP UP THE ..... VALUE "

Let`s start the BEST MOONWALK EVER SEEN !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7MmEMrCRfc&feature=related

(Message edited by stoian on July 25, 2008)

stoian

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Friday, July 25, 2008 - 12:21 am:

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan about the OIL PRICE:

"Only the sky is the limit=end !"

And here is the (by me before_casted) end, my friends ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYrUQItmW4s&feature=related

sway

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Sunday, July 27, 2008 - 10:41 pm:

Next weekend I will refer back to my first post when I created this thread and draw conclusions based on the last 6 months price movements of the 30 Dow stocks. The DJIA is now down about 900 from the start point at end of January.

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

sway

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Sunday, August 03, 2008 - 03:54 pm:

NOTE: I'll make this Part One, because I underestimated how much time it takes to put something like this together so that it makes sense to the reader .... more later.

sway wrote on , , :

Out of curiosity, I decided to estimate how much the Dow could move from it's current level of 12,385, based on a range of reasonably forseeable cases, ranging from "Bullish" to "Very Bearish". I looked at all 30 Dow stocks and their respective Weinstein Stages, support levels and resistance levels. I have assumed a timeframe of 3-6 months, which ties in with general expectations of how long it will take for the US mortgage and credit mess to reveal itself fully.

I have based the estimates on the following assumptions:

Bearish
All 30 Dow stocks will drop to next Support level

Very Bearish
All 30 Dow stocks will drop 2 Support levels

Bullish
All 30 Dow stocks will rise to next Resistance level

Realistic
WS Stage 1 stocks will not change
WS Stage 2 stocks will continue rising to next Resistance level
WS Stage 3 and 4 stocks will fall to next Support level

Results are as follows:

Bearish -11% change to approx 11,000
Very Bearish -30% change to approx 8,700
Bullish +22% change to approx 15,100
Realistic -2% change to approx 12,200

The Wrap Up

As at the end of January, the Dow had already fallen significantly, and there was speculation that it was about to spiral further down. My original concept was to evaluate each of the 30 Dow stocks in terms of their Weinstein stages and support/resistance levels. I posed a range of scenarios from Bullish to Very Bearish. The attached spreadsheet goes into the details.

There is no easy way to clearly show this much data on the IC Forum, so I will just give a few examples of what is in the spreadsheet.