Hi stampy, you are caught in the same trap as me. For our selections, anything we sell today, we cannot buy it back for the same price tomorrow. Am I missing something?
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
hv u seen the levels posted by me on 19th july ...... frankly i was not so bullish but the levels once cleared on upside hv given a goo run ...... and that is what i had said .......
keep watching and trading as per levels ..... that is if u hv faith in me ....... and my levels ...... THEY WILL WORK .....
Your reading my mind! It seems to be a nice problem to have . Trying to hold on as tight as I can . I'm trying to run a short dated MA as a close out level in this one directional sport and be strong of heart when things change. If only it was always like this. Lastnight looks like it was full speed ahead. Have a good weekend Regards Stampy
I will always be older and wiser than you, but you can be my friend anyway, and when we are 95 (well, me 95, you 80 odd) and sitting in a nursing home somewhere after our kids have got sick of us we can reminisce of the good ol days of this forum. Assuming we can still remember.......
Oh, but by the way, I seem to recall our medical check ups a few years back that put me younger than you.
Now, off to find my weekly tip, though I think the market is running on hope rather than fact just now.
Ahoy Dirty Red The gun goes off at 10am on monday morning. If your awake and remember to post... thats a big if, I can think of know one I'd like go racing with more.
Whew CC, I have been waiting for some time for you to go back to shore for provisioning. It's been a rough time for short people, particularly those who pinned some shattered faith on diversions and other discredited indicators.
I don't think I will get sea sick from here, not yet. It may be bumpy for the next few days, but it is going to catch the wind after that. There are many determined sailors that did not get on the last time and are keen to sail now.I will be getting prepared and looking for more seafaring sails from here on. I am not going to shore as the journey has just begun. It is going to be a long,long journey, a journey for a few years, so I might as well sit back and enjoy it.Those that were caught on "a head and shoulder" , false warning, ran aground the last time may have a little cheer. Just make sure that you catch the wind when it arrives. The great sail "DOW" was taking in water at dawn, except for a little wear and tear at dusk. The sea is looking a bit better now than earlier on. Who knows what the sea is like, the next morning? I am off to sunny Malaysia tomorrow and let the abled body sailors manned the sails.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
I can see how at 5:30pm you "could" look at the Chinese weather and lower your resource sails, but my charts gave me nothing at 3:30 or 4:0pm.. I've been running a short MA as my close, but that didn't help me ... yet. But nothing even looked close on MY charts until much later.
I know safety at sea is paramount and try to sail as such but I'm thinking my keel needs a lot more work. Thanks for your thoughts and charts. Regards Stumped! "never give up, never give up, never give up" Winston
Ok I think I have better picture now. I was looking for the indicators to come from north of the border. I wasn't looking so close to home. I sold My KZL today near the open .915.. not so good but then not so bad either. I'm thinking I fired a little early but it opened looking a little ordinary . It would seem that I've been a little fast to drop my sails of late.
These are some of my better sails today TSE,AIO,MRE, holding its own and small progress,PEM,PBG,CEY despite bad weather, standing still ABC,ALS,KZL and LYC, a little affected, IRN,NCW,ABY. Catch a sail today, OZL at 111, slightly affected, although battered today. Did not fare so well, EQN, BLD,BPT and MGX. Saw the storm over the top at MGX, however this one has a history of proving everyone wrong. Has been sailing this one since March, despite slight set back, expect this one to move fast in due course. Copper down $100 tonight, but overall still the recent best over $2.50 per lb, and likely to improve further, do not despair.There may still be hope for the week yet, the big sail "Footsie" starts tonight and in the black by 40. The "XAO" has a habit of surprising us.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
The mighty sail, the "DOW" sighted flat south 26 points, whilst our own "XAO" spi 3 points north. Commodities, taking a breather, so ours may drift south slightly today. As there are so many sailors wanting and waiting to get on board, it is unlikely they will let our main sail drift much further or for too long. Moreover these sailors have their trillions on the ready and the journey is likely to be longer and more bountiful.So, have faith in our weather just as our better sails did yesterday.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
This doesn't look like Wind falling out of a sail but more like a cracked mast
At best I'd assume she will go into a "Ranging Pattern" until the mast is repaired and confidence restored
Unfortunately This might also take the speed and lustre off our resourrce classes of sail as a group but as always Individual Situations will reign supreme
Salute and Gods' speed
PS Cabin Boy Stampy I lowered my KZL @ 0.94 and MRE @ 1.01 I Thought it might be a good Idea to rotate some monies into Biotech So I hoisted the NRT @ 0.72
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on July 30, 2009)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on July 30, 2009)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on July 30, 2009)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Ahoy Captain At what price will you be looking to buy back into the very fast moving little crafts KZL and MRE? The only person I know more bullish than you is Charlie Aitken (hmm same name) from the lighthouse Southern Cross Equities and they are two of his current favourites.
PS SGP is starting to hoist it's sail, will it catch the wind?
Ahoy CC I'm sorry to say I was way to slow on your NRT chart. By the time I noticed your post it had already moved 4% north. . A nice tack for those fast enough. I was a little nervous about some weather north of the border today and sold my WYL and my FPA. I probably jumped the gun but time will tell.I can alway buy again. I do agree with Sir Peter that the weather will "probably" be fine for a little while. HOWEVER I'm going to buy a little higher rather than buy little lower for the time being!
I did however raise a small COK headsail on the open.
Your principles would have been given an extreme test by KZL (buy back at a new high immediately), did you manage to press the button? I had the same problem as Stampy and yourself and exited too early (much) at .975c. To my regret even after reading your note i didn't buy back at 1.05 when I had the chance believing a retrace was imminent.
Hi baysider, read my post 3154 posted earlier on this thread. You will know what I mean. When the market has well been oversold, on any recovery we thought it has gone up too fast and overvalue for the time being. In reality, these mines are only starting to break even and only starting to make money. Isn't the purpose to maximise profit? Be careful with anything you sell, you may not get back on today's prices.We are also coming off from a very low base.My thoughts at the moment. Read that Mr Doom, himself is turning positive on resources.
Writing from sauna Malaysia.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
Portfolio, 70% intact bought in march, MGX,MRE,PEM,ABY,PBG(original holding sold 100% return) double holding bought at 60c on placement traded but increased holding, KZL,OZL,IRN,BPT new addition BLD, ALS,CEY,EQN,ABC,TSE,AIO.Purchased today LYC, add ALS. MCW under review as it is on support level and likely to reverse.
Sold with regret, BLS, OST, CSR
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
Yes! I got in on all of them "on the open" I am Good on the Open"
When you learn to make as many mistakes as this Captain makes you learn very quickly how to return the ship to "Upright"
I have learnt the hard way that you can only do this on quite a number of stocks on the OPEN or "The Most is Lost"
It is not rocket science Mistakes have been a great teacher
How & when you respond to these mistakes/lessons is up to you
I do it instantly and without Hesitation Thinking Sinks Ships!
YES! You can lie or cheat in a Time/Delayed /Hindsight as in the case of Officer Peterloh with all his historical documents of excellence (None of which I believe)
OR You can share your excellence in Real Time and Learn by Earning
NB: with Due Respect Officer Peterloh I have yet to Earn ONE (1) Dollar off your suggestions BTW: BRAGGING IS ILLEGAL ON ALL OTHER FINANCIAL SITES I KNOW OF (except IC)
"Bragging HELPS NO-ONE! "
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
What you said isn't very nice. I would take it that you did it under the extreme influence of rum or some other spirits.You also did it too often for your own good.What I did, wasn't easy, as you said mistakes are good teachers and I also learned from my mistakes. One mistake I did not mention here is I also sold MCR, some with intentions, and some unintentionally. I placed some orders this morning to rectify this mistake by putting an order to buy MCR at $2.34 but failed to obtain any as it was done a cent below that.I wasn't near a computer for the rest of the day.I also said I made mistakes in selling some of the shares mentioned earlier. I will elaborate more later. I am sorry you see it as a "brag" and I did not intend anyone to make money from my posts and anyone that did so is out of their own prowess and their own research.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
Don't you know the Captain is an old sea dog in the Captain Haddock tradition, perhaps Cabin boy Stampy could star as Tintin! If you don't know the excellent comics the Captain is all bark and no bite much like our own I'm sure!
Sorry Peter I owe you a dinner when we meet again at the Captain's Table
You know me all too well
It was a cocktail of Rum and Brag that shoots me off my normally charming ways
Sailing against the All Ords was always meant to be by definition "Sailing" as in "Hoisting" and "Lowering" NOT "Sailed against the All Ords"
ie What you (plural) did yesterday or days before is palaver in my mind It helps no-one
That is my point!
If we are to be a respected Sharemarket Forum I suggest Yesterdays' hero type posts should be outlawed and only Up-to-Date opinions posted on this thread for the good and the Bad
Hey! Peter You can always post your belated/after the bull posts on the Daily Bread thread where they all seem to help each other by posting their buys and sells sometimes even 2 weeks after the event LOL!
We don't need that sort of Help and Loyalty here
BTW
Did you get the NRT up in time??
Her code on the Nasdaq is NVGN if you would like to watch her in American waters overnight The Yanks really love the BIO-Tech class ATM
Wish me luck Hey?! Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Thought this might me worth a look. I'm not sure how to start a new thread yet. . yes I'm talking my book but I'm very interested in others thoughts. Baysider "tintin" gee thanks for the thought! I owe you one.
I know there where quite a few good looking charts after today. I Raised the HZN today and thought I'd see what others thought. I wanted to raise it yesterday but got a little nervous about some weather up north.
I jumped on board your fast moving frigate late on Friday like a pirate scavenging for gold. After the USA movements on Friday i thought I'd take a sound whipping today - but maybe not... have a read of the article on IRN in today's AGE
INDOPHIL RESOURCES The stunning turnaround in copper prices in response to the easing of the global financial crisis has worked wonders on the share price of Melbourne-based Indophil Resources, a partner in the Xstrata-managed Tampakan copper/gold deposit in the Philippines. The stock put on another 5¢ on Friday to close at 67¢ which is a far cry from the 21¢ a share low back in late January. Copper's 86 per cent rebound in the last six months from $US1.50 a pound to $US2.80 a pound has been the main driver in Indophil's resurgence. But some potential corporate action is also at work. Indophil has opened a data room for prospective buyers of its 34.23 per cent stake in Tampakan, one of the world's biggest undeveloped copper deposits. Several tier-one companies and sovereign investments funds have signed confidentiality agreements to get access to the data room. While it will take time for any deal to be reached, it could well be worth the wait given the sheer size of Tampakan - a likely $US5 billion development capable of producing 340,000 tonnes of copper and 350,000 ounces of gold annually for more than 20 years. Indophil's current market capitalisation values its share of Tampakan's riches at all of A2.2¢ a pound of copper in-the-ground. That is a fraction of the A7¢ a pound implied in recent copper asset deals elsewhere in the world and the A20¢ a pound that Xstrata - it's got 62.5 per cent of Tampakan - is considering accepting for its interest in the El Morro copper project in Chile from Chinese interests. Indophil chief executive Richard Laufmann isn't giving anything away on the Tampakan sale process. But it's worth noting that Laufmann's new business cards are double-sided affairs, English on one side, and Chinese on the other.
When Sailing against the All Ords it's a GOOD IDEA to keep a vigilant eye on the Great Flagships that sail the Globe in search of treasure
All at the SAME TIME and all under the SAME SEA and WEATHER CONDITIONS
As can be clearly demonstrated below the BRICs are leading THE GLOBE out of Recovery and into Expansion
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
INDIA
CHINA
HONG KONG
AMERICA
JAPAN
GERMANY
ENGLAND
AUSTRALIA
Please note I have only drawn the Fib lines to show how useless they are and that they should only be used in relative terms
Percentages levels "Off the Lows" and/or "From the Highs" would be a much better idea IMHO Colin
A simple % scale might then show the REAL RELATIVE STRENGTH of sectors and classes of sail?
Those that are holding the RIGHT SECTOR KNOW and Those that Don't, Don't know
In most Professional Sports at the Highest level "Winning isn't Everything"
What is Everything is to #1 Always try to better your own PERSONAL BEST #2 Never come last and win a WOODEN SPOON and #3 Never get beaten by a POM and at all costs #4 Keep the secret keel / (RED) indicator hidden from the HUN
Salute and Gods' Speed
PS Maybe somebody with a reliable % calculator (anybody but NOT HERSHY!!!) could rate these flagships in percentage terms OFF their lows?
It will show that this Rally to be "The Most Hated Rally" in my lifetime
Hated so much because "they" have simply missed out all-together or only took a small token interest in her
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on October 18, 2009)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on October 18, 2009)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Most landlubbers I have met think and act as if the world is flat and would see the following chart as a top and take profits
This this has happened so often in the past I have lost count BUT what I do remember is that they always claim that
"The world has gone TEMPORARILY MAD"
Most experienced seaman know that this world is in fact "not flat" and keep a blank computer screen on top and under there working screen as a daily reminder
Salute and Gods' speed to all
PPS Colin I tried to do a chart on CANADA yesterday but feel the Data is somewhat corrupted I then turned to my much loved and predominant classes of sail in Canada "The Metals and Mining"
BTW I liked your newsletter Oil Rising" last week
PPPS Could we please get the charts a bit wider Say as wide as TEXT I think they used to be so a while back They would look so much better IMHO
Strange how most great discoveries are made by accident
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on October 19, 2009)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on October 19, 2009)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on October 19, 2009)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on October 19, 2009)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Still no need to panic as China holds a confirmed NE'ly course doing it "The Navy Way" +2.7% today (Not shown on chart} Isn't it marvellous how our resource stocks always seem to change hands from the Very Weak to the Strong hands
Blimey! Don't the Greedy Landlubbing fundamentalists always say they will buy on dips in Bull Markets but they never ever see the Bull Market until it is at the top or has just passed overhead
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Once /we got onto this "Generational Bottom" in the Resources Class It has all been Plain Sailing I still can't see any Dark clouds in this sector since late last November 2008
If you/we were invested 100% at the bottom I can't see why we cannot be classed as a Long term Investor/Holders nowadays
If you have lots of Cash on-hand you have missed this boat/Mining Boom and All I can say is that you are a Short term trader from now on and have missed the boat in the long term
I have always been amazed at the Fallacy in definition of Long Term verses Short Term
I have said many times over the past 5 years "LONG TERM It is just an excuse for Brokers, Salesmen and Losers"
Whether you are a Long Term Investor or a Short termer IMHO it all depends on wherewith and how close to the Bottom you made your Call in this 25-30 year Generational Bottom
Crikey! It is an absolute Fallacy to think anyone can put their Long term face on and see into the Long term as it is for them to see into the medium term
Unfortunately Short Term is an area in which they never ever dwell on because it takes a lot of hard work /effort in the technical/TA
The FACT/Secret is to be 100% invested in Bull Markets and 0% in Bear markets
It's as Simple as That!
Can anybody see any Dark Clouds developing ANYWHERE on the Horizons of the Global Exchange ATM
I Can't!
Salute and Gods' speed
PS What I mean by being 100% committed in Bull markets is not the same as being 100% committed as is the case when Sailing the XAO
We don't need to carry such a diverse lot of dividend yielding stocks designed for Mums,Dads and Orphans
That is our Edge!
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on November 15, 2009)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
I hate to disappoint you but the Global Exchange is not flat ie: There is no such a thing as "a Top" or "a Bottom" There are only "All Time Highs" and "All Time Lows" We set sail on the Global exchange as if in an EXPANDING UNIVERSE It is well worth the expense to place ONE (1) blank computer screen above and ONE (1) below your ACTIVE screen until you remember this fact of life at Sea when Sailing on any member of the Global exchange It's like putting on training wheels when you first learnt to ride a bicycle
YES! I agree that the BIG Buck/the USD has lost a lot of currency
I publish below "The Battle of the Dollars"
The Little Aussie Battler (AUD) and The Canadian Mounty (CAD) against the USD to show that there is still plenty of room for The BIG buck to lose even more currency
What I have shown is the 21 year high of the AUD @ ~98c and the 40 year high of the CAD
I have also shown the Yanks most hated word in the English Language ie: "PARITY"
I don't expect any intervention until we near THAT WORD
Can you imagine what it would be like to be a Yank and have your Currency being called "The Little Yankie Battler"
Somehow I dont think the American Ego will ever allow this to happen
Australia and Canada in particular will be asked to Buy/Support the BIG BUCK and join another "Coalition of the Willing"
Salute and Gods' speed
PS Coiin These Charts would look a lot better if they had the same width/respect of the Written word
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on November 17, 2009)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on November 17, 2009)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Spot on Captain; have to agree with you on this one(CAD$ and A$ actually) as we would merely only require somewhere btween 4%-7% final exhaustion on the US$ to push those currencies to the "dreaded" parity....and we know that could happen in just one day in the present 'climate'.
Have already booked(and prepaid) my next year's (3) overseas holiday's to take full advantage of the current 'al-cheapo' airfares and the nice A$ exchange rates...God forbid, even booked to go to the "Good Ol' U.S of A"...BUT only so I can see the expression on those Yanks faces when I pay for any of their 'plastic' food with either a 'green-back' buck or the A$ and say "what's your problem?"!
No disappointment CC: simple maths suggests that when your climbers take a peek up the final slope of Parity Peak, my diver could well stir up mud at about the 71-72 level (there is a Mexican round here who has already made that call).
We are not the only ones to make that simple calculation. so I don't know whether it will be a tipping point or not.
Given your track record in March I'd say you would stand a good chance of calling the next move par excellence.
I'm not asking you to show your hand, but since I now have these two extra damn screens on the desk, do I keep them one above and one below the active, stack them both above or balance the active on the pair of them and wear gumboots?
No disappointment CC: simple maths suggests that when your climbers take a peek up the final slope of Parity Peak, my diver could well stir up mud at about the 71-72 level (there is a Mexican round here who has already made that call).
We are not the only ones to make that simple calculation. so I don't know whether it will be a tipping point or not.
Given your track record in March I'd say you would stand a good chance of calling the next move par excellence.
I'm not asking you to show your hand, but since I now have these two extra damn screens on the desk, do I keep them one above and one below the active, stack them both above or balance the active on the pair of them and wear gumboots?
When Sailing against the All Ords it's always important to design your Craft with the "Right/Correct" Classication/Sector of sails for the prevailing Sea and weather conditions ie: "The Times" as they call it back on land
RIO is now up 200% in one(1) year
whilst and the XAO is only up 50% in the last year
From what I read not many a Greedy landlubber have been able to keep up with the XAO let alone the Mining and Resource classifications
Excuses will be a plenty! BUT Heads are going to roll when those Faithful and Loving Wives find out that their husbands have well and truly missed the boat and the GREATEST chance of financial security in OUR life time has passed them by
Let's face it Not many are born to go to sea with only a few classifications of sail like Mining and Resources
Cickey!I have seen some really bad designs with so much Diversity I doubt if even the skipper knows where he wants to go
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Read my RIO post almost exactly a year ago above That was at the Bottom $30 and since adjusted to $25!
Also note that I changed my Plan of selling half at 100% when I reconsidered that this was a "Generational Bull Market" and Not just another one of those Ordinary Bull Markets
NB: You are not welcome here Please go away!
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Blimey! I didn't expect that rumour! That of BHP in for Woodside I expected BHP to have another go at RIO after the 27/Nov deadline
The trouble with "Thinking" is that it is merely a "Series of Assumptions" If you get ONE (1) wrong then the whole argument can come down like a house of cards
I therefore reefed in Half RIO bought at ~ $25 Half BHP Bought at ~$20 Half IRN Bought at `0.51c Half AET Bought at 0.38c albeit that she is in a two fronted takeover battle reported to be between 80c-90c
I call this Tack "Sailing OPM" ieOther Peoples Money)
PS I am only referring to those shares I have bought in this public forum
The Ugly Mob in the Spectator Fleet should well know by now that they can only expect a few bones here and there from time to time from this Captain LOL!
ONly my Truly Brave and Loyal crew are welcome to Private mail me
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Hold onto yor hats! It money for nothing now! OR Do we buy back what we sold middle week to make a SHORT type profit without being SHORT
The Answer is YES!?
Crikey! Some tree-hugging Landlubbers I know would love such a profit in less than One Year
I am going to buy back BHP and RIO and IRN as/like a short covering on my mid-week concerns of stormy seas and bad weather conditions (NB: Safety at Sea is Paramount!)
Looks like the Dark Clouds are now passing overhead nicely Phew! That was a close one, Hey?
Salute and God's speed
PS: I always feel my ship is under-dressed when the the All Ords heads North under a full speread of sail presented to the wind and I Am Not
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on November 29, 2009)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Great news re OUR Interest Rate Hike today in Oz! This should inspire/shock the world economies out of their Doldrums and put them in a North-Easterly direction
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
That includes some chartists too about staying out of the market, captain. Have you ever heard of a successful pessimist? They are still calling this a BEAR rally.What is the difference between a BEAR and a BULL rally? They are still waiting, probably for a double bottom, before moving back in.This is another tight band that will explode upwards.
cheers,
Peter
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
We are so lucky to be Men of the Sea in many ways We can even have a girl in every port!
Poor Young Tiger Woods
Who would want to be a Landlubber who plays Golf for a living, Hey?
I much prefer to live upon the sea!
Crikey! It seems the whole world has turned on Tiger for no other reason that they are extremely Jealous of all his accomplishments and trophies he has collected on the way
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
It's nice to see that The Late Capt Rene Rivkin's most famous Tack still works
ie: Buy on the 1st Takeover bid as an alert to the world and Hang-on for a 2nd /3rd Higher offer
Unfortunately, Captain Empty-head reefed in Half on the 1st bid for AET
I therefore reefed in as noted above Half my AET Bought at 0.38c albeit that she is in a two fronted takeover battle reported to be between 80c-90c Sold Half at 0.76cents I call this type of Tack "Sailing on OPM" ie Other Peoples Money)
I would have sold today but I had a BIG day in the City with all of the attractive Pre-XMAS Sales/Specials
Tomorrow will have to do to exit the rest my shares
You can never call me one of those "Yesterday" type heroes
Seems to me that there is no point in holding on any longer when "the board" submit to a Take-over
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
The late Captain Rene Rivkin's most famous / Only great Tack Lives on ie Get in on the 1st Takeover offer in anticipation of an ALERT to other and often better equipt GREEDY takeover Landlubbing merchants
Unfortunately/without fortune I spent the whole day in THE BIG CITY with all the pre-Xmas sales so Tomorrow will have to do as my Final Exit Strategy
"Tomorrow" in my Mind sounds A LOT MORE RESPECTFUL than the all too common IC "Yesterday's Heroes / A few days ago Heroes "
It is amazing how far one will go to protect their Precious Egos!
Salute and Gods' speed
PS I don't Believe a word what people said they did Yesterday or a few days ago
Only a Mother would believe that sort of RUBBISH! My only advice is "Try it on your wife and see haw far you get!"
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
And into these magnificent comes the War-Mongering Europeans
The Hun (DAX)
The Gauls (CAC) And The Whinging POMS
And Crikey! Even the Yellow Peril is joining the Party
Blimey! With all these "BULLISH" Wind and Sea conditions I can't see any reason why The Little Aussie Flagship (The All Ords) can't find MUCH MORE WIND
ALBEIT that those 2 Great Red Peril sister ships The Hang Seng
and Shanghai Composite are correcting and ranging under the Poor Choices of the Property Classes of sail
Salute and Gods' speed
NB: The 1st happiest day in your life is when you buy a boat
The 2nd Happiest day in your life is when you sell it!
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on December 23, 2009)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Have a Very Merry XMAS as The Xmas Rally arrives on time with a 3% gain this week
The Xmas Rally is defined as that period in time between Xmas and the New year Over the last 16 years there has been 14 Rallies with only 1995 and 2002 missing out
It should be Plain Sailing this year so be sure to hold onto your hats
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Ahoy Captain, I am touch by the goodwill of some of the candidates here towards you. Are you lauching a ghost ship in this toughest of waters that only a seaworthy sail can withstand? If you are man enough to sail with us, then post according to the instructions as given above.Your name first, follow by your sail and then your selection L or S.
My father once told me, life is like a balance sheet, where you have assets and liabilities. If you let your liabilities get away from you, then you are at gutter level,on the other hand if you cut out the rubbish, you will have your pots of gold on your asset side.
I once knew of a captain, who is friendly, joyful and help ful. I don't see him around any more. I want him back not the cranky old bas..... we have around nowadays. How about that Captain, we know you can do that. They said if you hang around with the same type of people, you become one of them. We are all here to enjoy ourselves, why don't you have a go at it? You will find it enjoyable too. Next time when you decide to post, stay away from those RUM of yours for a while first or else if you decide to still post, put some funny gas into your rum first(lol).We all love you here with us as you can make a valuable contribution.
Elizabeth and I have discussed that an extension of a week won't hurt and it would be nice to have a few more capable ones joining us.Mook's entry in 2009 was last for a couple of months to finish 2nd at the end of the competition. Who knows, a rookie may take the first price for year 2010. Barring an objection from one of the candidates here, we will extend the competition to the end of the week, ie the 17th January at midnight.So late comers, there is still time for you to lodge your nomination, if you haven't done so, please do.
Cheers,
Peter
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
I WANT TO KNOW THE AREAS OF INVESTMENTS IN YOUR COMPANY. I am Mr. Patrick Doumbia, a Fund Manager with SOCIETE GENERALE DE BANQUES EN-RCI (www.sgbci.ci) .please i want you to feed me on the areas of investment in your company, my private email is: patrickdoumbia0015@yahoo.fr Phone number +225 02043723 As soon as i hear from you in my email i will give you my full details so that we can proceed on the investment projects.
Regards from Patrick Doumbia
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
well,Charles I didn't get such a message today so it ain't universal.Special,again,Charles hey? now why do you reckon You,Alone have been Chosen to colloborate with a stranger in 'investment projects'?
perhaps he is a True Fan,charles. maybe he's one of them star voters who back your posts,hey?maybe?
oh charles,surely you're going to reply? Garn,Patrick Doumbia has obviously picked you above all others as 'suitable'.
Be PROUD,Charles accept the hand that reaches out for Colloboration. Bring him to yer Bosom,pal.He's sure to be Grateful and will hold you in AWE when ya come on board with Pat. rick. why not get pat to enter d'weekly comp so he can bask in ya wisdom,Charles?
yeah,call him patty or paddy,just friendly like. like ya cain't be blamed for PATronising a Patrick,surely?
rolling on d'floor laughing my [posterior] off seriously.
it'd be really 'progressive' charles if you actually outlined exactly what you 'learnt' in the weekly competition. as far as i can discern you just used a set of rules,a system to rort to the glorification of yourself. recent examaple-your call of taking IRD at a low point on friday,using the system of confirmation,the time lag to be a.. well...'competitor extremis'
do ya follow,charles? it was actually impossible in d'Real World/True Trading Live2Air to get an entry at 62 unless you'd put ya bid down days/weeks ago to be Top of d'Queue at 62 for that 'play'.
Charles,YOU are a very poor example of how to do it. you've diddled around in Competitions like d'ASX one and the Commsec One waaaaaay too long. that ya prance around accuse all others of being 'paper traders',yesterday's heros,liars is an absolute JOKE.
charles,charlie,chuck,pal- ever heard of 20/30 year experience claimants merely having say 2/3 years experience that they extrapolate,brag as 20/30? charles, there's a DYNAMIC. the more one learns d'less one knows.
you're really sad,charles because you gave up.
wanna come back? humour is best 'illustrative' when it's self deprecating. running others down for some 'glory' to self? is... well it just don't work.
Charles,get over d'classic car bit [d'Triump Stag],it's so yesterdaaaaay. chuck,heed d'word,you're coming across as a third/fourth rate Benny Hill.
Hi Captain, the market could find support this morning after a quick sell down. Fortune favours the brave. I know what I will be doing this morning.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
i still haven't gdd3 so it hasn't been sent to all members,at the same time. so do you have any constructive suggestions for Colin to remedy this? Eliminate the Email Facility completely? Make it available only to Members? Make it available only to ACTIVE/Posting Members? see patrick can 'easily' become a member but never reveal his agenda[ie the time delay 'barrier']
anyhow,dolphin are you wondering too why you got it and not some others? could our Pat be wanting to bankroll a TAZ portfolio? like he MIGHT wanna Give YOU Capital.Though you'll probably have to send $10grand to 'release' it,hey?
but how do you think Colin should solve this "problem"?
I got one too, I treat it as a scam, unless informed otherwise.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
Well Dug, it isn't a 'real problem'(for you) as you said you haven't received this e-mail and its not really a problem for me(and i assume the Captain) as I just deleted the e-mail. However, I still object to the e-mail ever getting through the "Forum" filters whether allowed or otherwise.
And, yes, maybe he (Pat) likes my approach to T.A.Z. and wants to 'lend' me some money OR maybe he hasn't seen anything in Dug's trading method(s) to offer the same....BUT then again he obviously didn't view your TRF,IFE and ROL posts of late, right!
well,gdd3 the point is you want Colin to Do Something about it,this unsolicited email scam. undoubtedly,these emails will most probably be sent to every member over the coming months.
i think though if you 'analyse' it that a]the whole IC mailing list hasn't been compromised.Is Secure. b]Patrick is "manually" picking his targets.he's not able to do a mass mailout. c]could it be assumed he's targeting active posters,perhaps by going thru the top of the board thread Markets? maybe not,i don't think peter loh posts in the general thread only this one? hang on maybe that's his source.This Thread. ie he's manually emailing thru the IC system posters to this Thread.
you can,gdd3,under the IC Private Email System opt out of getting any at all.tick that box and you individually will never be bothered like this again.
but otherwise all i can see that Colin can do is eliminate the private email facility entirely. i wouldn't care too much but i bet other members would be diisappointed.
anyhow best get out of this thread or i might get tempted by d'Pat.
cheers,gdd3.you're very generous in your revelations of TAZ and general method etc.i have no problem with you,dolphin.
Ahoy Ingot So far , The Captain, his 1st Mate Dolphin and his 2nd Mate Peterloh have been hit
What I learnt in my Mossad Days as a defensive strategy was to never open a Hotmail/Yahoo type free account BUT As an Offensive Strategy Open up a Hotmail type account
Salute and Gods' speed
PS Sea-Cadet Ingot #54
I refrained from addressing you as a Sea-Cadet above fearing that you may well be targeted next
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on January 25, 2010)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
XAO, coming back? Are we going to watch DJAA rebound tonite and not reaping the benefit tomorrow? Super money is coming in, are they putting it into the market for now? We need some to keep the bears at bay.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
So ... let's forget the kerfuffle of the French Connection ... and back to the business of the day.
At this stage I see good news ahead.
I have had to resort to up-to-date data to bring you a meaningful chart of the XAO, but as far as the Daily candle is concerned, a lovely hammer is forming up at the half-way mark.
Late afternoon storms happen at sea, to which the Captain can well attest, but given continuing fine weather, it augurs well for a close in the green today.
After touching 4702.60, which is (close to) a long-term strong support level, Mr Market seems to have had a change of heart.
However - a quick check of the DOW and FTSE futures gives a mixed picture.
The FTSE 100 is at MINUS 60.6 as I write, and the DOW is PLUS 70. (Dax is off by 92 as an aside).
That is telling me we could be in for a bit of weather at the close, because although the DOW is +ve atm, they are a nervous lot , and we have about 10 hours before Wall Street hears the bell.
Here's a chance to observe some intra-day shenanigans, Captain. Could be another shake-out ahead, but I remain hopeful the seas are returning to calmer times.
If the markets are so skittish, based on a few noises from China, what sort of recovery have we had?
Fundamentally ... not much.
PE ratios are holding only because of down-sizing and using up inventory. There has been very little production anywhere, but you know, if you keep saying something long enough (eg Anthropological Global Warming) there are always some who will swallow it.
As for the recovery - I don't buy it.
I see major headaches for investors this year, and this ripple in the XAO is a sign of the times.
I still maintain we are at the top of the DCB, or about a month from that top at most. Egg-on-face is part of my daily appearance, so I wouldn't write to the editor about my musings if I were you.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
Obviously an astute eye for weakness on falling vol as well as a symmetrical pennant?
I would say that the pennant on its own might have been a risk, but with the advantage of non-existent bears (revealed in the pathetic falling vol) fiddling the books, the result is a no brainer.
Congratulations on the find.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
Post 3558, purse strings loosen yesterday morning, was I too early captain? Might as well get in before the institution money does.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
Yes! You may have been a bit early "Depending" on whether you hoisted "Storm Sails"
I remind you that A Storm usually Strikes Twice
"Storm at Sea "
It seems appropriate to insert the description of an actual storm we encountered on our 10year adventure in the open oceans on the ASX . It is particularly directed to the novice cadet who for some unexplainable reason believes she’ll be right in the long term if onboard tall ships. It is also relevant to the seasoned veteran who after a magnificent season often forgets the principles of seamanship and lets his adrenalins rule.
Storm is that time all deep-sea yachtsmen must be prepared to face and sometimes without any warning. As we were sailing six tall ships all nearby in the ASX20 it made it possible to analyse the situation more closely afterwards.
The storm took place just south of New Zealand in an area not notorious for extremely fierce gales. However we were quite aware gales there may come suddenly and last for long periods. We weren’t concerned as each ship was toughly built and of heavy displacement. They were the pride of the ASX. Each and every broker in our network with research teams on many floors suggested the big three. BHP, NAB, and NCP and stressed a “diverse and balanced portfolio.”
Julius the only cadet on board asked
“What is the difference?”
Jack replied
“It’s a safety formula so that if any one or two get into trouble the other four will pull us through.” Henry quickly added
“Only if you have equal chips on all.”
We had opted for three industrials and three resources. Jack recommended BPC for its attractive price earning ratio and yield. Benji added WMC because he had fond memories. Henry added MIM as he considered her price a good value bet being the cheapest in the top 20. I abstained from joining the selection table as I saw my responsibility solely as the skipper and navigator.
We had already by now earned an excellent racing record and gained much ground, sailed through many spring gales and came through undamaged.
The NAB was far to the west and by chance the rest of our fleet were bunched together to the east.
On the 20th Dec 93 the chart of the NAB showed a bearish weather pattern and was first hit. There was no hint of a depression forming.
Yet with in 2 weeks the storm was establishing itself amongst the ships.
At midnight the storm caught us.
As the barometer plummeted, violent wind gusts struck the yacht. All the sails were lowered and the boat put in the trough of the sea while we watched for any change. After one day the barometer had checked its fall and the wind’s mean easterly direction was unaltered. The torrential rainfall and screeching gusts all suggested we might be in the path of a revolving storm, or hurricane. The normal instructions for avoiding such storms could no longer be carried out, as the wind was too violent for any canvas to withstand.
The situation as it appeared at 1.00 am. in the middle watch was the very one we had studied most carefully. Not because it seemed likely, but because it was the worst possible position we could imagine for a sailing ship in the open sea.
I assessed that the loss of the tall mast was probable. In this lonely part of the ocean, 500 miles from America and with no engine, survival needed the preservation of all food and water. Nothing could be discarded to lighten the ship. I assessed that crew fatigue would be a danger should a breaking wave smash over the deck or cabin. Finally came the danger of crew being washed overboard. This seemed the greatest hazard of all.
It was clearly best to direct the end of the boat on to the sea to reduce the chance of a wave breaking over her. With such a strong crew I felt a helmsman could always be kept on deck. Even without sails the wind on the bare mast was driving us through the water at near maximum speed.
The night was black. My outlasting impression was noise. The shriek of the wind in the riggings, the din of the waves all blending into one devilish clamour and the pelting rain hammered against one’s head.
Moving around was not easy in these conditions. A novice helmsman could easily be caught off guard while shifting into position. Suddenly, a sea came pounding over the deck, filled the cockpit and slammed against the cabin. The ship was battened down so little water went below. Until one had been on deck for some time it was hard to believe that each succeeding wave would not wash over. If the helmsman could meet each wave squarely with the stern she would rise quietly with the sea and nothing but spray would come aboard.
The problem became chiefly a psychological one. As we were all quite experienced helmsmen by this stage no exceptional difficulty was found in steering the stern into the seas even in the dark. But it was decidedly frightening to hear the furious snarl of a wave breaking astern above the continuous roar of wind, rain, spray and waves hurling themselves at the boat.
I prayed earnestly for the dawn and went down below to look at the barometer. It was still falling steadily. There was a slight easing of the wind but it was still blowing a full gale. As man is a creature of daylight I felt that if we could just survive the night unharmed all will be well. However when dawn should have broken the angry darkness held its own.
Slowly the light seeped through the rain and spray. The dawn was much more frightening than the night. The sight of those huge waves building up astern was devastating. The surface took on a dull dirty and frothy white washing machine character. In the driving spray and rain one could scarcely see beyond the next crest even when on top of a wave.
I had been up all night and the sheer horror of looking at the seas I went below to check all the charts instruments, ate a block of chocolate and write up the log.
If on deck had felt overwhelmingly hostile, the cabin felt like a prison cell. The worst impression was one of utter helplessness. There nothing I could do except trust my instruments.
A spurt of water shot through the tiny peephole left for the helmsman to communicate with those below. I looked out and saw Jack signal me to come up. Conversation was impossible on deck but it was obvious he just wanted some support. He too was frightened by the sight and noise of the seas. Curiously, I found his anxiety reassuring. It did not seem to matter being afraid if a man of his calibre was feeling the same. In any case it felt better to be lending support to another. Strengthened in this way one could think and look around more objectively.
At 5.45 am. on the 25 May, the wind fell dead.
The sudden change was staggering. We had run into a patch of blue sky, colour sparkled, the rain dried up and the spray ceased to drive. On deck our voices were freed. Words no longer vanished in the storm.
“Look at that mountain of sea sir” Jack shouted, forgetting that his voice had not to compete with the elements,
‘It’s breaking in all directions at the top.”
The sea was hopelessly confused. Pinnacles of water would surge up without any form or rhythm. It seemed Mother Nature had developed a taste for modern art. One longed for some wind to steady her but dreaded the return of its overwhelming power. The boats motion was chaotic in the heavy air. Yet Henry and Ben below had somehow wedged and lashed themselves into their bunks. It takes a seaman to rest in such conditions. Every moment they could lie down strengthened our defence.
“I suppose we’re all right, sir,” said Jack doubtfully, “it really scared me to look at those huge curlers astern.”
“Yes, we’re all right,” I replied without much enthusiasm,
“But the real thing is what happens next.”
‘What does happen next, sir?”
‘We seem to be in the eye of a storm, Jack. The strongest wind comes after the calm.”
“I bet no one else has looked into the eye of storm of this size.
“What are we going to do now, sir?”
“Can she stand any more of this shit?”
“She’s stood it so far, Jack. We’ve done all we can. We’re all well trained and ready. There’s nothing left but to pray.” The urge to prey was deep and we were both silent for a minute.
“We’ll pull her through, sir.” warm hearted, loyal Jack said. No finer man could exist to share the pressure. At last there was colour and blue sky, but the mental relief that had come when the wind no longer blew, fizzled out like a spent rocket.
All around swirling, angry, black curtain walls of sea hemmed us in. Seven minutes of a pregnant pause seemed ages.
Savagely the wind pounced again.
It was still from the east. I struggled to check the course from my second compass. I was surprised to discover they both did not point in a different direction. We were still heading south with the wind astern. I thought of St. Jude and the hope of the hopeless as we sped further from land.
The clock clung to every minute, but at last an hour had passed. The instruments were pumping up and down vigorously as we dived and soared. My obsession with safety was instinctive. My passion for life, insatiable. The hope for some rising indicators never came. At times their fall was checked and then slowly fell again. This was a bitter disappointment. Although I thought the skipper should constantly be on the alert there was nothing I could do about anything and went below to write up the log.
Perhaps the depression was still deepening?
Salute and Gods' speed
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on January 26, 2010)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on January 26, 2010)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Agree. And to continue your excellent (though previously read) analogy ...
So far it has struck just the once!
Perhaps the "eye of the storm" has been a bit too reassuring for some, and the time taken for the eye to pass can make some believe it is not a revolving storm.
The huge size of the "eye" of this storm makes me shudder - and wonder what will the wind be like before we get through to the other side? I don't think a storm of this magnitude has been seen before.
No longer talk of "green shoots of recovery" ... some are already counting the harvest. Better get the crop into the shed in that case.
Let's reassess in March.
(Message edited by ingot54 on January 26, 2010)
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
She is a magnificent sail, ingot and as usual the captain gave a good account of the eye of the storm from his log. I certainly hope the worst was over in March 2009 and anything that comes after that are ripples, an event that lag behind.This also happened in March 2003, and you know we sailed through it all despite all obstacles and lesser storms and gale and dark clouds that appeared subsequent to that.I think the recent worst has been blown over, the damage had already been done, if any.There should be better days ahead of us, although I admit there are gales and storm at sea today and we certainly missed the bulk of it,in a day of enforced rest down under.At sea, storms and gales are part and parcel of danger a sailor has to face and if required, a sail has to find shelter at any time of day.If I have to rank the gale from 1 to 5 in order of severity we soon have to face, I ranked it down to 1, as earlier we had a gale of the magnitude of 4 blowing across.We have able bodied seamen on the stand by and if required we will launch a few more so that in the end we will end up victor despite the difficult task ahead.Meanwhile we have to sail with caution and ensure we have enough spares to make it through.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
It look more like a gale and storm of 5 today. Since I am all wet now, might as well have a bath instead of a splash. Hopefully I don't have to swim all the way.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
Don't feel ALONE I have never had a Day at sea I could not have done better
Every time I wait in the queue I either don't get any at all or if I do I always live to regret it
When I buy at the high of the day I often but not always live to regret it also
I am seriously thinking of launching a new ship named the HMAS REGRET
Unfortunately that would take a lot of money which we yachties never seem to have enough of
I still have all my BHP ($22)and RIO ($28) which I bought Heaps and Heaps of at THE ONCE IN A GENERATION BOTTOM
(Which makes this different than anything I have ever done in the past)
The other shares I bought in those days I unfortunately sold Half with a 100% gain
That proved to be a really silly idea in most cases if you ever saw what I bought in the Weekly Competition
ABY @ 0.16 MOL @ 0.27 THX @ 0.13 NKP @ 0.16 Stand out in memory without looking up the logs as being the worst
After that I threw the 100% Rule overboard and labelled them LONG TERM because I don't think they will ever get back to their Generational Bottom again in my lifetime
I then placed them lovingly in My "Bottoms" Drawer/Long Term
BTW Above in the notes you will see that I did sell RIO and BHP at ~ 100% according to 100% plan But changed tack the next day and wrote it up in the logs as "Best Laid Plans"
So much for the background of the name HMAS REGRET
Salute and Gods' speed
PS Peter, Golf is much worse!
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on January 27, 2010)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
biggav, it looks like I am going down with the ship. I am sticking around, with a few million tons shipped last quarter and 3.1 billion tons in reserves plus half owner of the port and rail project, I am for the long term. The game hasn't even started, unless there is something I don't know, I will be putting more in it once it stabilised. I am on a prayer and a hope, not only on this one, but for the whole market in general.
------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
It's important not to put your stop-loss on the Bottom Bolinger Band as this is often a Very Good BUY situation (refer Colin's notes on Bollinger Bands)
I reefed in some MMX last week but I have decided to buy them back this morning at dawn
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Captain Chazza - Thanks - Luckily looks like MMX held just above my stop. Where would you put your stop loss at the moment then? Hopefully today is the start of a bounce up in the market?
That's a good question but I always find Stop-Losses hard to execute It may have something to do with EGO, I think
If and when I do remember to "pencil in" a Stop-Loss I apply them individually according to their assumed volatility and make sure that they are placed Very far away (Wide Stops)
eg say 0.30 cents on the MMX and then apply as a trailing stop as we go North East ie: $2.00 on today's high price
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
Captain, yes GGP is looking good BUT have you been following her "Mother Ship" VIL. She has broken through into clear waters, no doubt to make easy sailing for GGP and other accompanying small support fleet.
But Captain(Sir)....I had it registered in my T.A.Z. logs on the 25th of Jan.(2:58), same time I made reference to your (then) COK....just assumed you 'visited' these logs as often as ,say, Dug's and Hershy's.
Never mind, Captain there will always be more vessels posted under the same logs in the future although I fear they could be of a 'short' nature as we head into the Southern winter. Do you want me to alert you 'privately' in the future although I fear that will not work either as I have tried this in the past but no response has been forthcoming?!?
Yes, I am surprised that an analyst such as yourself would see in the charts that "I am glad that storm passed overhead quickly".
I see no such thing - I see a mild up-tick in a continuing down leg, and although that "up-tick" has been supported by slightly below-average volume, I would have looked for above average volume if this rally had any sea-legs.
It does not. The markets halted right at the resistance level of 4673 today.
We are still in "wait-and-see" phase imv, but I have issued a "batten-down-the-hatches" order for my household.
As someone said - "safety at sea is paramount".
Tonight's DAX and FTSE numbers are hardly convincing me of a recovery phase, and the DOW futures are a pitiful +4 as I write.
What recovery?
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
Everybody is waiting for Armageddon 11 I can't see it
Instead of a having a "Healthy" downwards correction in the All Ords over the Last 5 months we have actually drifted sideways and consolidated
Yes we dropped out of the Largest/Biggest Rally since the Great Depression but that by no means says we must have an Armageddon 11
Corrections do drift sideways Ya Know?
China is not in trouble We should all wish everybody had that sort of growth Trying to bring in their growth to say 8-9% is a Good /VERY GOOD THING IMHO India Brazil Russia the Same
The Only problem as I see it is in the European PIGS
Portugal Italy Greece Spain
They are relatively small economies compared to the BRIC]s which are booming The PIGS importance to world growth I feel is grossly over-exaggerated Yes They are Too Big to Fail so fear not Brave and Loyal Ivan Money will be printed
Salute and Gods' speed
(Message edited by captain_chaza on February 03, 2010)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
I do agree with one thing Captain - that the markets are even more irrational than ever.
In the instrument I trade ( I am not allowed to mention it outside of its own thread, for fear of upsetting the forum shovel) the risk-taking and risk-averse activity has caused price activity to respond 180 degrees to how it used to under FA conditions alone.
This is a consequence of a few things, none the least of which are the information and technology available to all punters. What used to take days to move, now moves in minutes, yea, seconds.
eg the flight to the USD on bad news. And the decoupling of GOLD with the DOW and OIL, or just plain non-correlation (either positive or neg) where there used to be consistency. Just doesn't figure the way it used to.
And the Carry Trade ... borrowing in low interest rate currencies (JPY, USD), and using the cash to purchase higher-yielding assets (eg the stocks of the XAU, and other higher yielding currencies such as the AUD) is another phenomenon affecting the orderly flow of the markets. We can no longer rely on stock XYZ to simply obey the rules of TA or indeed FA.
The unwinding of the Carry Trade is still in progress, thus the fall in the AUD over the past 4 weeks by around 5 cents vs USD, despite the strong credentials and Fundamentals of the Aussie economy. Another story for another place ...
It has been shown, through tracing of Bond serial numbers (Colin has posted on this) that the Treasury creates Bonds, and the Fed purchases them 3 days later, which is a process called "Quantitative Easing" or "Monetising the Debt".
When the Fed created their "Bailout Funds Window" the money was going into a black-hole, and there was no danger of hyper-inflation ahead. This was because this bailout money was NOT finding its way into "liquidity" as such.
But the Quantitative Easing process is another matter. The cash created by QA is seriously inflationary. Problem is the Fed thinks they can wind this back any time they wish. Obviously they never heard of Pandora's Box.
Some of my sources state that this Bond money has been finding its way into the stock markets of the world, propping them up under low volumes, through the use of algorithmic buying yada yada.
Other sources say that the bailout money has not been used by the banks to create new credit, but they have sold their toxic assets to the Fed, and used the cash (aka bailout money) to gamble in the stock exchanges and markets.
Now when the markets sneeze, these banks and gamblers whip their cash out of the markets (read: withdraw over 4 or 5 trading days) in fear of the much predicted second correction (the next down leg of the Dead cat Bounce).
Now I might have some of the pigeons mixing with the chooks here, but somewhere in amongst all of this, there may be a grain of truth. I doubt it is all fear, conspiracy, anecdote and controversy just for the sake of a good story.
Personally I no longer trade equities, for this simple reason: I like to hold longer term.
I loathe spending the day in front of a chart, nibbling my fingernails, and wondering whether the intra-day gods will be favorable.
So ... regarding Armageddon II: who knows - I am tending to lean towards a secondary correction for the reasons given earlier (China's bubbles, US Mortgages resetting this year, the closure of the Fed's Toxic Assets Purchase Window and so on) not to mention the Technical condition of the XAO.
I am still in cash mostly - I have no Super in stocks at all now.
But that's been the case since Nov/Jan 2007-08, when we also sold the house and joined the renters, and remain that way until ...
And while I would like to be out of cash again soon, I am unafraid of "missing" some good moves - indeed I have let a great many opportunities go, because of my beliefs.
And I still sleep well at night!
. . PS - A little physical Silver never hurt anyone's portfolio.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
What conditions would you like to see before you would feel comfortable accepting them as "Armageddon II"?
Unfortunately the gentle breezes blowing the XAO off its recent tops is not what we will feel in our faces as we exit our cabins this morning.
This is a wind that once again has its origins in Wall Street as the the mighty DOW took a hit last night of 268 points, and the S&P500 gave back 34 points.
Moody's is threatening to slash America's triple A credit rating - a statement in itself that lowers that rating, but unofficially. It seems the excessive job-loss figures out in the USA overnight have startled the horses.
The Bond markets are in damage control, and it will tale just one small country to want to cash their Bonds, and the game will be up. It all runs on confidence - once the trust is gone, the cookies crumble.
I would urge anyone with money in US Bonds to review their position today. Particularly anything over 3 year. This is a bubble about to make a sound similar to a "pop', and as you know, while they last, bubbles are silent until the very end.
What that means for long term interest rates, only the man upstairs can say, because Geithner and Bernanke and Obama are totally clueless, and should not be at the helm of such a mighty ship. Borrowing their way out of trouble has not helped, and they should have listened to the best advice of Ron Paul and that other Paul ... Volker - "allow them to fail."
Today I am mighty pleased to be in cash.
Get ready for the most magnificent specimen of hyperinflation the world has ever seen - coming soon, like a thief in the night.
With gold down USD$47 overnight, I think it is too late ... again ... for people to be thinking of Stop Loss orders - theses should have been in place YESTERDAY, or better - punters would have been better served to be right out of the markets since 2007.
While it may appear to be off-topic this morning, I feel this discussion has probably never been more on topic with this information - and how it will affect the All Ords today.
BTW - you mentioned the PIGS countries - don't forget Ireland is in grave straits as well, making it the PIIGS countries.
"Pssst! Hey Buddy - wanna join the Union?"
The EUR is not looking like the bright morning star today.
EURUSD: 1.3725 USD Index: 79.990.
The "flight-to-safe-haven" is about to reverse - probably right where Colin said it could - at the USD80 technical mark.
We are there technically 79.99 is 80 in my book.
Look out tonight - the Non-Farm Employment Change figures come out at 2330 hrs AEST (2230 hrs for southerners) for the USA - while we sleep.
It will be a brave soul indeed who will remain in equities over this weekend.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
Wait a minute, Ingot54, are you forgetting to tell the full story? You are forecasting hyperinflation like we've never seen before and you are loaded with cash. Your cash has to be converted surely - aren't you going back to the precious metals shop?
You read my mind Hailoh, but I am not all-knowing - just forward-looking.
This is not the thread for it, but since we are here ...
* I do not know if the market will be higher or lower tomorrow - I am just a pawn like everyone else. * I see the USD Index racing towards 80, as US debt rockets towards x trillions - that's risk-averse-thinking in high places * I see the EURO plummeting on possible Sovereign debt default, imminent in a few of the more unfortunate members (PIIGS) * I see Moody's rumbling on about slashing the USA's AAA credit rating. Read: "It's already gone." * I see increasing repatriation of Bond Investments, as smaller players rush to redeem their cash from the USA. These Bond redemptions are probably already occurring before you and I get to hear about them, and in any case, they will be hushed, so as not the threaten the weekly Bond Auctions * I see a collapse of the world's stock markets again. The DOW peaked at 14,198 on 11/10/2008, and dropped to 6470 on 06/03/2009. That was a drop of 7728 points or 54.4%. The Dead Cat Bounce has been 65.8% from that bottom, or 55.1% of the loss from the October 2008 top. That's Fibonaccial! * I see that once the markets are gone again, there will be another rush OUT of the USD, which means a collapse of the Bond Market, which is currently in Bubble mode. * I see that once the stabilising factor of the Bond Market is removed, long term interest rates MUST rise, as investors rush to put money in assets that will appreciate, forcing prices to rise across the board, and as the higher risk investment vehicles command higher Interest Rates initially. * I see a collapse in the Commodities Market (at some stage) and then, when the last capitalist blinks, he will realise that the only haven left for his nest egg, is the Precious Metals Markets.
Hyperinflation - you betcha!
You are correct - you did read my mind perfectly.
Now, if you look out the window, do not be alarmed. That yellow streak you will see, is just gold heading down towards another "bottom".
I see that as another buying opportunity for Gold, and in particular, the poor man's PM, Silver.
However, I would completely disregard what I have written if I were you - you are not going to act on it - few will. I backed myself in 2007 by selling the house, and putting all super into cash - 8.3% was available in Nov 2007, and that lasted for a year. The rollover available was only 4.3% in Nov 2008, and interest rates, as you know, have been hovering around there ever since - a tiny bit better this year thanks.
I am just one little minnow in this huge ocean of sharks - they could swallow me in an instant, and spit out my bones.
What would I know?
Meanwhile, I just trundle along, taking a few hundred here and there out of my Forex trades - there is always a bull market in currencies.
Win some, lose some, but always having the best of fun ... and sleeping at night.
Unfortunately I can not claim to have traded this move in the AUD - but I did get some of it once I realised it was underway.
I suppose we should really get back on topic, or risk the ire of the owner - I apologise for the rant.
PS - Look on the bright side - I could be wrong, and this current hiccup could be be just a pull-back for a wonderful resumption of the new bull rally.
It won't be based on increasing employment numbers though - or wonderfully increasing numbers at reporting seasons, but continuing the theme ... "who really cares?"
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
After re-reading my own waffle, I realise I should have said "liquidity" instead of "safe-haven".
In times of duress, when markets are doing their thing, punters want to conserve cash above all else. So everything gets sold off, until the picture becomes clearer, and assets are identified that can carry the nest egg safely forward.
The USD is currently seen as this vehicle, and it is probably the most "liquid asset" available.
Real Estate in all forms, Commodities, and Precious metals are NOT classed as liquid assets, as you know.
But of the Precious Metals, Silver is more liquid than Gold. And it appreciates faster on the rise, but should be sold when prices look like topping, because it will fall faster than Gold, percentage-wise.
What we are seeing is a flight to liquidity.
Waffling ... bye.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
Ingot54 I am looking for market flags amongst finance related charts available on IC in the wink wink thread. Are movements in bond markets or derived units available in IC? Do you know?
Sorry Captain: you know what it's like - give a bloke a tinny, a lump of bamboo and an old tarp and he thinks he's Bob Oatley. Enjoy your seaway!!
and this one is probably what you are looking for - click around and you might see the widening spreads lately, or the rising yields:
.bondsonline.com/Todays_Market/
Bond yields have been low for some time, but widening spreads lead to widening yield (rising rates) which translates to higher longer term inflation, or long term rising rates.
Bond rates reflect long term interest rates, and that's the last thing Bond holders want - they have their principle locked up in say, a 10-year T-bill, and it will sit there until maturity, while they collect the annual interest only, until maturity.
In the mean-time, inflation can rise, effectively wiping out their earnings, and leaving them with their original principle, which has deflated relative to current value ie: at the 10-year maturity point.
Hope that makes sense.
Anyway - I don't want to tell you how to suck eggs - you can Google for the charts and daily Bond yields/rates if the above are insufficient.
I do not think the USD will rise as quickly with this correction as it did with the Oct '07 - Mar '09 correction.
The USD Index went from 76 to 88.5 in 18 months, and liquidity all-but dried up. Even today, as the banks sell their toxic assets at the Feds' Discount Window, they are clinging to the cash, instead of creating (and easing) liquidity by lending it out as intended, and getting the economy mobile again. Instead they have been boosting their returns by socking it away in the stock-markets and derivatives markets (yes, again - no lessons learned).
What I see in this correction, is continued deleveraging - we have been warned that 2010 would be worse than 2007-'09, as only about 50% of the deleveraging had actually occurred up to Dec 2009.
If assets fall any more, there will be a massive triggering of sales by leveraged players, who damned-well should have been out by now, but have hung in because of the "recovery". Today I'll bet my sweet bippy that they are wishing they had liquidated into rising markets when the opportunity was there.
Greed mate. It gets us (them) all.
The root cause of the 1987 stock market crash was said to be the excessive leveraging due to derivative traders getting too carried away with themselves.
And guess what triggered this one ... CDO's (Collateralised Debt Obligations) SIV's (Special Investment Vehicles) and synthetics, hybrids, single tranche, variants etc - all became pretty much household words with the Subprime (the American Dialect Society's "Word of the Year" 2007) crisis and subsequent GFC.
I'm probably boring you now, so will give it away at that.
But I expect the Fed/Treasury to make a decision to soften the strengthening of the USD at about this point - the Index 80 mark, which coincides with Colin's target of 80.5.
Colin said it was "unlikely" but I beg to differ. Sticking my neck out, I know, but if the USD becomes too strong, it will create another liquidity crisis, and the cycle of bailouts will begin again.
I simply do not think the world could support another stimulus package, or bailout cycle in the USA.
It really would be Captain Chaza's Armageddon II.
OK - this time I'm really going.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
Other Peoples Money) 
