Way of the DOW

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Archive through November 25, 2008 paddy 50 1 25-Nov-08  07:12 am

Archive through November 06, 2008 justice 50 1 06-Nov-08  09:26 am

Archive through October 27, 2008 paddy 25 1 27-Oct-08  06:30 pm

Archive through October 16, 2008 tryhay 25 1 16-Oct-08  08:54 pm

Archive through September 29, 2008 justice 25 1 29-Sep-08  02:08 pm

Archive through September 13, 2008 paddy 25 1 13-Sep-08  05:47 am

Archive through September 10, 2008 paddy 25 1 10-Sep-08  06:43 am

Archive through August 27, 2008 paddy 25 1 27-Aug-08  12:13 am

Archive through July 18, 2008 paddy 25 1 18-Jul-08  11:40 pm

Archive through July 11, 2008 captain_chaza 25 1 11-Jul-08  07:54 pm

Archive through June 21, 2008 stoian 25 1 21-Jun-08  07:38 am

Archive through June 12, 2008 paddy 25 1 12-Jun-08  06:48 am

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justice

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Tuesday, November 25, 2008 - 04:30 pm:

tryhay:

You make a timely observation of which all should be aware.
However I believe paddy will get this one right. Hourly and 4H charts are not happy.
I think the trend line support/resistance question is complex. I have appeased my own naturally ingrained skepticism with the following interpretation.
If I draw enough lines I may rediscover Gann.
This chart is of the DJI I've drawn in a Fib fan which curiously matches the downslope trendlines of previous highs. (no other reason - except maybe Gann line similarity when combined as above)

Regarde,

justIce

(Message edited by justice on November 25, 2008)

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/

paddy

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Wednesday, November 26, 2008 - 12:48 am:

Justice / Tryhay : Take it easy . Back off. You are entering the "Twilight Zone" . Technicolored - multi-lined Charts constructed there have been copyrighted / it is the domain of Doru Stoian.

Have a good one

Paddy

paddy

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Wednesday, November 26, 2008 - 07:16 am:

Justice : Again we got a Close below 8500 . However "They" did another last minute spike downwards and tested a sub-Fib level so all set to "rally" again tomorrow but again should dwell in the 8300's and a good chance for the high 8200's to be visited for awhile . By my numbers, at least 100 million shares traded in last 5 minutes or so.

Adios

Paddy

justice

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Wednesday, November 26, 2008 - 03:15 pm:

paddy:

Well if the end of day's close persists below the 50% Fib - the continuing fall could resume by Friday at the latest.
I still consider the 618 Fib being a possible spike high technical trigger.

cu later...

in a while,

justIce

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/

paddy

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Thursday, November 27, 2008 - 12:48 am:

Justice [ or is it Reptile-Man] :

alligator - crocodile

I see no REAL reason for a rally of substantial proportion. This early morning pull-back I thought would go down to around 8250 . I still expect that.

However - what will be

As they say after 7100 comes 6700.

Paddy

justice

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Thursday, November 27, 2008 - 01:54 am:

paddy:

Short covering is a game of deception I know. They'll push it as high as allowed.

The Quadrillion - That's a Thousand Trillion - Dollar Powder Keg Waiting To Blow
Dated October 11: (yes I know - but are we there yet)

http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/The_Quadri llion_Dollar_Powder_Keg_Waiting_To_Blow

(more recent articles can be found under the Weekly menu and are good reading.)

http://gata.org/node/6900 (very brief and to the point also.)

For your entertainment enjoyment OTOH...

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=htAB6fLMPMU

Regarde,

justIce

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/

paddy

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Thursday, November 27, 2008 - 03:04 am:

Justice : Thanks for music and info.

Re: Dated October 11: (yes I know - but are we there yet)

When will they be publishing Chapter Two? The PPT is something one can live with . However the slimy slick silly willy actions, probably at orders of hilarious hillary, as I see it, the root cause of the present problems.

A book / movie " Two Pairs of Pants "

In short, two pairs of pants in the Whitehouse that created the catalyst for the Greedy of the world to send it into oblivion. Saved by the appearance, finally, of the aliens who were sent by the energy entities to feast on fat greedy folk- no bias.

Adios

Paddy

justice

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Thursday, November 27, 2008 - 03:23 am:

paddy:

Obie's emerging team are indeed a complete Clintonian in-bred re-tread job.

I've no quarrel with fat people. :-)

Most of the people being "eaten" are already poor or blue collar. The GOOD aliens don't have a lot of input AFAIK other than running around repeating...

THE TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE

Happiness runs...

justIce

(Message edited by justice on November 27, 2008)

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/

paddy

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Thursday, November 27, 2008 - 11:09 am:

Justice : Here's one for you although I have a hunch that you have seen it.

The Truth Shall Set You Free

And now we have elected a man no one knows anything about, who has never run so much as a Dairy Queen, let alone a town as big as Wasilla, Alaska. All of his associations and alliances are with real radicals in their chosen fields of employment, and everything we learn about him, drip by drip, is unsettling if not downright scary (Surely you have.....

===========

Like your description: "Obie's emerging team are indeed a complete Clintonian in-bred re-tread job. "

========

I like this part:

Donovan Happiness Runs

Happiness runs, happiness runs.
Why ? Because.

=========

PPT had fun today . Want folks in happy mood for Turkey Day so they will spend and spend until they drop. They got by my first level. Like you said they'll run it as HIGH as the can - maybe even to 9200. We shall see.

Adios

Paddy

philr

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Friday, November 28, 2008 - 05:47 pm:

At least Obama appears to be appointing on merit as opposed to what this administration did.

I like the sound of a few of his initiatives already.

Cracking down on nuclear weapons.

His website for taking new ideas.

Being willing to talk to other leaders unlike Bush.

Phil

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

justice

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Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 04:05 am:

paddy

Obviously the 61.8 Fib was the kill switch level for any rally. Friday's close near the high was phoney baloney as expected.

Max Keiser' page has this link listed on his home-page which is ironic in the extreme:
"Analysts warn that the nation's next financial crisis could come from the staggering cost of battling the current one."
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-fi-pricetag30-2008nov30,0,5544 291.story

Redarde,
justIce

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/

paddy

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Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 05:18 am:

Justice : Yes they ran it up to 8831 and dropped at Close to 8829. Just happens to be a sub-Fib where a reversal could be expected and sure enough "they" came through with the "kill" of more "suckers".

Now just have to wait and see what develops down at 8377 level. Positive test and the PPT could rally again.

Adios

Paddy

paddy

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Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 07:15 am:

Dow puts in Fantastic Inverse Rally

Justice : Twas a fine "rally" - inverse that is to celebrate the appointment of the former shadow president as secretary of state. It'll be a fine state of affairs.

In inverse speak, the Dow gained a whopping 680 points
and Closed at 8149.

Adios

Paddy

justice

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Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 07:14 am:

paddy:

These dead cat bounces sure are "lively".
Technically, a break above 8680 would have me pinching myself.

More bad news tomorrow could make this a flying dead cat.

Regarde,

justIce

(Message edited by justice on December 04, 2008)

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/

paddy

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Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 07:51 am:

Justice : 6680 ? The action in the Market has nothing to do with the "news". No doubt the "waves" are unfolding as "they" should.
I think that the rise on this "leg" will make it to around 9050 - 9100 .

Regards,

Paddy

justice

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Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 08:33 am:

paddy:

My typo corrected to 8680.

Your target however is accepted as possible. I confess the EW count will needs be understood only after the event rather than before as I have come to rely - should this occur.

Take care,
just Ice

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/

paddy

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Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 09:19 am:

Justice : I knew it was a typo and not from a chart from an alternate universe . Your target is a valid one that would need to be overcome to reach the galactic target of 9050. I too have a level at 8675 that fits with your 8680 . If this rise is stopped at that level then we may hear " In the Market , the volatile Market , the sharks feed today."

Until then : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqqsJJ08-uQ

Paddy

justice

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Thursday, December 04, 2008 - 02:41 pm:

Paddy:
Musical chairs again. Enclosed; some Tokens of my appreciation.

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=mwy5uqemp6c&feature=related

justIce

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/

tryhay

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Friday, December 05, 2008 - 05:58 am:

some trend lines help the gestalt IMO. The price action is sliding sideways ATM, but Mohamad looks to have approached the mountain, should get interesting in US tonight (or early next week)...

indu

FWIW Some are suggesting the Mega Rally will occur around the week of December 15th <http://www.cnbc.com/id/28010476>

Happy trading DYOR

paddy

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Friday, December 05, 2008 - 06:32 am:

Justice / Tryhay : As they say at the ballgame " Three strikes and your out".

Intraday Highs 8632 - 8623 - 8613 : Three tries at sub-Fib level 8633 .

With it now at 8337 I don't see the PPT coming to the "rescue".

Adios,

Paddy

tryhay

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Saturday, December 06, 2008 - 06:29 am:

Check the tail on that candlestick ~ shortly time for resistance to be tested IMO

indu

There is a time for everything, but trusting you are not overly long ATM..<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anopqq5lwqq> ......

Happy trading DYOR

paddy

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Saturday, December 06, 2008 - 07:17 am:

Tryhay / Justice : Strike One . Sure didn't like that High. Back down to just above 8633 so set for perhaps another test on Monday . However that is a long ways away.

Adios

Paddy

justice

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Tuesday, December 09, 2008 - 08:34 am:

... the clouds dissolve and the sky turns blue ...

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/

The Money Masters: How International Bankers Gained Control of America
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936

Abolish Fractional Reserve Banking - End the Fed

paddy

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Saturday, December 13, 2008 - 12:51 pm:

Justice : Nice bit of manipulation today.

Ody / Rudy ; Another article that you may not have seen.

Dow Theory
Why Opinions Differ and Brief Update
BY TIM W. WOOD

It’s amazing how many people write articles and publish material on Dow theory. The sad thing is that the vast majority of the material I see is dead wrong. Recently, I was sent an older article that was published by a Certified Financial Analyst stating that a Dow theory “buy signal” was triggered on April 18, 2008. I was asked why that so-called signal failed and why my read on the Dow theory has proven correct. It’s simple. When I read these articles I always see a common denominator in that it becomes immediately apparent that the author had never actually studied the original writings of Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton or Robert Rhea. If you are not aware of the Dow theory lineage, you can read more about this here.

Anyway, I have found that Robert Rhea’s material is essential if one is truly going to understand what has come to be known as Dow theory. The bottom line is that it is simply impossible for one to speak on a subject in which they do not have a sufficient depth of knowledge without getting the facts wrong. The only other person I know who has also studied the original writings by Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton and Robert Rhea is Richard Russell. As a result, Mr. Russell is the only other orthodox Dow theorist that I know of and he told me that he has fought misquotes, misunderstandings and erroneously written articles his entire career.

I first warned about the Dow theory non-confirmation in October 2007. I then lead my subscribers through the technical maze as we watched the primary bearish trend take root. According to classical Dow theory, the primary bearish trend change finally occurred on November 21, 2007. It was at that time that the “stock market barometer,” according to William Peter Hamilton, first forecasted “stormy economic conditions.” Then, as the markets rallied out of the January secondary low points and into the May 2008 and even the August 2008 highs I explained that nothing had occurred to invalidate the establishment of the November 21, 2007 primary bearish trend confirmation. Yes, this is all in print and even to date nothing in accordance with classical Dow theory has occurred to change the establishment of the primary bear market that was first confirmed on November 21, 2007. The most important aspect of Dow theory is the joint movement of the Industrials and the Transports above and below previous secondary high and low points. As you can see on the chart below, the averages last made a joint price low on November 20, 2008, which served to yet again reconfirm the bearish primary trend that was established on November 21, 2007. Now, this is not to say that there won’t be bounces. Of course there will and following every secondary low point there is of course, a bounce into a secondary high point. The key is understanding when a secondary low point has been made, what the advance into the secondary high point is telling you and then identifying the turn down out of that secondary high point.

Now the question on many peoples’ mind is, how long does this bear market last? Well, Dow theory doesn’t directly offer an answer to this question, but there are some inferences that can be drawn upon. First, it is important to understand that the definition of Bull and Bear market differs from person to person. My definition is based on the works of the great Dow theorists, Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton and Robert Rhea. As a result of my study of Dow theory combined with my study of cycles, which are not a part of Dow theory, I have drawn some very obvious conclusions about the nature of Bull and Bear markets.

As I read about the bull and bear markets of the late 1800’s and very early 1900’s, it becomes apparent that the bull markets Dow, Hamilton and Rhea wrote about were the upward movements of the 4-year cycle and the bear markets were the downward movements of the 4-year cycle. As our country grew, more and more people began investing and as a result the bull and bear periods became longer and evolved into a series of multiple 4-year cycle periods. For example, the first bull market to consist of multiple 4-year cycles ran from 1921 to 1929 and consisted of two 4-year cycles. The low in November 1929 was a 4-year cycle low. The rally, or “Secondary Reaction,” that followed was the upside of a 4-year cycle that topped in only 5 months. Once this “Secondary Reaction” was over, the DJIA moved down below the previous 4-year cycle low and into the 1932 4-year cycle low, which proved to be the bear market bottom. I would also like to point out that the 1921 to 1929 bull market advanced a total of 568% from the 1921 4-year cycle low at 67 on the DJIA to the 1929 4-year cycle top at a high of 381 on the DJIA.

The next great bull market began with the 4-year cycle low in 1942 and ran to the 4-year cycle top in 1966. This time the “Primary” bull market was comprised of a series of six 4-year cycles and advanced a total of 1,076% from the 1942 4-year cycle low at 93 on the DJIA to the 1966 4-year cycle top at a high of 1,001 on the DJIA. Note that this bull market advance was roughly double the preceding great bull market. The bear market that followed was also a series of 4-year cycles. From the 1966 4-year cycle top, the bear market moved down into the 1974 bear market low. This was a series of two 4-year cycles.

Now, I want to focus on the bear market declines. Prior to the first great bull market that ran between 1921 and 1929, the bear markets averaged some one-third the duration of the previous bull market. This relationship has also held true with the extended bull market periods as well. For example, the 1921 to 1929 bull market was 8 years in duration and the 1929 to 1932 bear market was 3 years, making the bear market duration 37.5% of the preceding bull market. The 1942 to 1966 bull market was 24 years in duration and the 1966 to 1974 bear market was 8 years, which was 33.3% of the duration of the preceding bull market.

From a cyclical perspective, the last and greatest bull market of all time began with the 1974 4-year cycle low. Some say that it began at the 1982 low and I understand that argument. However, from a cyclical perspective the bull market began in 1974 and this was the actual low point of the 1966 to 1974 bear market. The year 1982 was when the bull market broke out and became apparent.

At the 2000 top, the associated Dow theory non-confirmation and confirmed primary trend change indicated at the time that this great bull market era had ended. Upon the primary trend confirmation in March 2000, all indications, according to Dow theory phasing, was that Phase I of a great bear market had begun. Also, based upon the historical relationships between bull and bear markets, that bear market was slated to run into the 2008 to 2010 timeframe, which was 33 to 37% of the preceding bull market. Again, when the rally out of the 2002 low began it appeared that this was simply the rally separating Phase I from Phase II of the bear market.

However, the powers that be threw everything they had at the market and in doing so they allowed the bear to claw its way out of existence, and when both averages managed to better their 2000 highs, everything changed in accordance with Dow theory phasing. I said at that time “I can tell you that this confirmation does not signal a “new” bull market, but rather reconfirms the existing bull market.” What I was saying here in early 2007 was that the bull market that began in 1974 was reconfirmed as still being intact when both averages jointly bettered their 2000 highs and that we had never entered into a true bear market. This was written in an article on February 29, 2007.

Anyway, the advance that followed this reconfirmation carried the averages up into their last joint high, which occurred in July 2007, and can be seen in the Dow theory chart above. From the July 2007 joint high the averages moved down into their August 2007 secondary low points. It was then from that secondary low point that things began to once again deteriorate. As you can see in the chart above, the Industrials moved on to new highs in October while the Transports failed to confirm. This non-confirmation is noted in blue.

It was this non-confirmation that lead to the November 2007 decline and with the break below the August 2007 secondary low points, noted in green, on November 21, 2007 the Primary trend was once again confirmed as being bearish. That break put the market at risk of finally marking the top of the entire bull market advance that began in 1974 at 570 on the Industrials. As of the October 2007 high the bull market advance that began in 1974 has now run 33 years and has consisted of eight 4-year cycles with a total advance of 2,385%. Note that this advance has been roughly double the previous bull market advance in terms of the percentage move out of the low in which the bull market began.

Now the question at hand is, did the October 2007 top mark THE top of this entire bull market advance up from the 1974 low? If so, then we are now operating within the context of a much longer-term secular bear market that should serve to correct the entire 1974 to 2007 bull market. Also, based upon the historical bull and bear market relationships of the past, the 33 year bull market period should be corrected by a 10 to 12 year bear market, which, based on the 2007 top, would take the bear market down into the 2017 to 2019 timeframe. Another point I want to make here is that back in 2000 the bull market from 1974 was only 26 years in duration and one-third of that would have been some 8 to 9 years, which means that if they would have let the bear market that tried to begin back then unfold, we would now be coming out of a natural bear market bottom in which a real advance could have occurred. Rather, they fought it tooth and nail and were ultimately able to extend the bull market into 2007. As I said all along, this only served to make matters worse. We now have a 33-year bear market to correct and we are only one year into it. Point being, if we have truly seen THE bull market top, then we still have some 9 plus years to go based on these typical bull/bear market relationships and fighting it will only extend the inevitable and make matters worse.

Tim W. Wood

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wood/2008/1128.html

stoian

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Sunday, December 14, 2008 - 02:51 am:

http://www.forumbursier.ro/index.php/topic,4289.msg31136.html#msg31136

Rudy Giuliani - Major of America - dixit, at the "10 for Romania" blunder !

Romanian-American stock markets CORELATION were not such a big nuisance!

Even if the Romanian stock market suddenly threw down like any slave, since long before the emperor giving any sign that he wants to sit on the throne, in order to ease his both burdens.

And will remain so prostrate, until the emperor will remove any tare of flow from between the cheeks of the U.S. economy, in order to raise relieved from the throne.

In conclusion, to be continued with eyes as corms for the evolution of the emperor DJIA, for once it will be easier entirely, he will return to his normal weight of about 7000 points, and is likely to rise suddenly from the throne, to run for ruling his empire.

(Message edited by stoian on December 14, 2008)

paddy

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Sunday, December 14, 2008 - 08:42 am:

Rudy : I think that the DOW will end up visiting somewhere close to 5400 for the Final Bottom.

What catalyst could initiate a drop down so low . For starters the verification that Obie is not eligible to be President of the USA.

From Newsmax.com

" And finally, one can not shake President-elect Obama's unwillingness to release an authentic copy of his birth certificate, nor can it be ignored that President-elect Obama has hired teams of attorneys (not individual attorneys but teams of attorneys) to thwart attempts by third parties to compel him to produce a birth certificate.

The question as to whether President-elect Obama is a "natural born citizen" - as REQUIRED (NOT SUGGESTED) by the Constitution - is not just significant... it's now downright compelling."

If true all the makings for a major upheaval.

Paddy

rdumas

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Sunday, December 14, 2008 - 08:51 am:

Hi Paddy,

I don't know whether the original birth place of Obama would move the market down that low. Personally I could give a continental if it turned out that he was a Martian.

I would suggest that the market will really bottom when it becomes obvious that the solutions that the world leaders have been attempting to implement to solve the current financial crisis in fact create even bigger problems or that the extent of the current problems are revealed in their fullness.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

paddy

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Sunday, December 14, 2008 - 09:38 am:

Rudy : So you don't give a "rat's - - s . No hay problema. The Citizens struggling in the Depression just might. Reckon we'll just have to wait and see if he is a Martian or an alien .

Regards,

Paddy

rdumas

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Saturday, December 20, 2008 - 03:59 pm:

Hi Paddy,

I know that this is a thread for the DOW but check out this EW count for the S&P500.

Here is a very nasty case scenario to contemplate.

There are some analysts who believe that the S&P500 is currently creating a 5 wave move down to form a higher level wave. The completed waves were waves (1), (2) and (3). Wave (4) is currently being formed and then follows wave (5).

Using the concept of paralleling we can draw a line from the termination point of wave (1) to the termination point of wave (3) {blue line}. To find out an approximate point at which wave (4) may terminate we draw a line that is parallel to the blue line from the termination point of wave (2). We can see from the chart below that it seems to point to the fact that we are very close to the termination point of wave (4).

Traditionally

To determine a target level for the termination point of wave (5) we use the concept of equality. When we have a large wave (3), waves (1) and (5) are quite often equal in range. The range of wave (1) was 319.1 points. If we use Friday's close of 887.9 as the termination point for wave (4) then the target level for wave (5) is 568.8 !!!

Now being a student of Fibonacci, I know that you will love this. The range of wave (1) was 319.1 points. The range from the termination of wave (1) to the termination of wave (3) {this is called the range for wave (1:3)} was 516.0 points. Hence the range of wave (1:3) was 161.7% of the range of wave (1). Does that sound close enough to the Fibonacci range of 161.8% ???

Similarly the range of wave (1) was 61.84% of wave (1:3).

Also the range of wave (1) was 50.2% of the range from the top of wave (1) to the termination point of wave (3). Coincidence ???

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

rdumas

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Sunday, December 21, 2008 - 06:47 am:

Hi Paddy,

Thanks for the email mate. You are spot on. I'm not sure where I got that figure of 516 points from. As you say the range of wave (1:3) is 1576.1 - 741 = 835.1 which means that the range of wave (1) is 319.1/835.1 = .382 or 38.2% of the range of (1:3). Fibonacci strikes again !!!

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

rdumas

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Sunday, December 21, 2008 - 07:57 am:

Hi Paddy,

I just remembered where I got the range of 516 from. Firstly I had the termination point of wave (3) with the incorrect level. I had written Friday's close level as the termination point of wave(3). That is obviously incorrect. The level for wave (3)'s termination point was 741 (not 878.9).

I have redone that chart to show the correct value.

So redoing all of the previous calculations. First let's define a couple of ranges.

Range 1 is the range of wave (1).

Range (1:3) defines the range from the termination point of wave (1) to the termination point of wave (3).

Range (1~3) defines the range from the beginning of wave (1) to the termination point of wave (3).

Therefore Range 1 is 38.2% of Range (1~3) and 61.8% of Range (1:3). Now that is Fibonacci at it's best.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

justice

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Sunday, December 21, 2008 - 06:26 pm:

Dear ones,

Has anyone figured out what stoian lastest post in this thread was about. I didn't want to appear the dumbest by asking the question first but I'm running our of hope that there may be any more silly than I.

From what I can gather, the Emperor is about to poop himself. (But I may be biased)

Regarde,

justIce

tryhay

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Sunday, December 21, 2008 - 09:10 pm:

stoian wrote on Sunday, December 14, 2008 - 03:51 am:
until the emperor will remove any tare of flow from between the cheeks of the U.S. economy

Even though you may be biased Ice, I do not think stoian is talking about the type of biblical weed, but more the weight of flow between the ar$e cheeks of the U.S. economy ... quite wittie indeed.

More to the point, something is familiar about index price action and say august this year IMO (chart posted below)....

indu

Happy trading DYOR

paddy

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Monday, December 22, 2008 - 12:30 am:

Justice / Tryhay : My take is that if you are plying the River INDU be aware : beware of the " Angel Falls " that are just around the next bend in the River.

Better analogy is a tidal fall on a major inlet . There you see the curvature of a glassy smooth water as you approach the falls which can be really hairy.

Timing : now about equivalent of mid August.

Regards,

Paddy

stoian

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Saturday, January 10, 2009 - 10:08 am:

TREND AND TENDENCE OF DOW JONES !

justice

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Saturday, January 10, 2009 - 10:53 pm:

stoian:

Ahhh! But the EW count is most probably still:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&b=3&g=0&i=p25729892215&a=67199589&r=669
(work of Anthony V Caldero)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67200084]&disp=P

paddy:

More doom and gloom I'm afraid. I can't fool you.

http://www.thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/

There's a link to a recent Peter Shiff's interview with RT

Regarde,

justIce

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Saturday, January 10, 2009 - 11:25 pm:

S&P500 Steve Hochberg's EW count overview/projection.

Changing the Y-axis numbers will give you DOW chart pretty much I assume.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SWe103ZchqI/AAAAAAAAFLU/kAagp6zjHX8/s1600- h/fourth+wave+triangle.png

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/s-500-crash-count-wave-four-t riangle.html

Regarde,

justIce

paddy

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Sunday, January 11, 2009 - 01:28 am:

Justice I do believe sway would label you Dr Gloom&Doom with your deluge of posts with realistic articles .

As I have stated many times " Still a Long Ways to Go "

I didn't realize that the USA had such a small debt . Only $57 trillion . Hell Obie of the CPM will fix that up right quick with all kinds of "so-called aid" when the initiate the "black hole" that may swallow the "whole world". Soon it will be $100 T.

Have a good one .
Here waiting for global warming to start

See you at say 6100

Paddy

stoian

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Sunday, January 11, 2009 - 09:07 pm:

Melting clocks, or how The Time distorts=mutilates Reality!

http://translate.google.com/translate?prev=&hl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fgroups.google.c om%2Fgroup%2Fprognoze_si_previziuni%2Fweb%2Fmelting-clocks-sau-cum-deformeaza-mu tileaza-timpul-realitatea&sl=ro&tl=en

regards,
doru stoian

stoian

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Sunday, January 11, 2009 - 09:55 pm:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Disintegration_of_the_Persistence_of_Memory

" ... To Dalí, this image was symbolic of the new physics -- the quantum world which exists as discrete particles, rather than continuous waves. It should be noted that the imagery of original Persistence of Memory can be read as a representation of Einstein's Theory of Relativity, symbolizing the warping of spacetime by gravity. In this new work, quantum mechanics is symbolized by "digitizing" the old image.... "

CHOOSE THE ORDER=DETERMINATION, BECAUSE IS DIVINE!

DON`T CHOOSE CHAOS=RANDOM, BECAUSE IS SATANIC, AND YOU WILL CHOOSE WRONG ALSO !

Be - always - with GOOGLE, BECAUSE IS NOT EVIL !

(Message edited by stoian on January 11, 2009)

stoian

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Sunday, January 11, 2009 - 11:02 pm:

Morcheeba: Stop chasing shadows, just ENJOY THE RIDE !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g53vSSy8RxE

The day that you stop running, is the day that you arrive !

stoian

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Sunday, January 11, 2009 - 11:42 pm:

Because:

Psychic=E_Motional or also called:

Embedded in=with the Motion,

is not the one and the same thing with Psycho_Logical !

(Message edited by stoian on January 12, 2009)

stoian

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Monday, January 12, 2009 - 01:29 am:

What's the Democracy and Freedom promised by you Freemasons?

1) to vote a market made by ourselves for U.S.?

2) or to choose a market already made by you from U.S.?

tryhay

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Monday, January 12, 2009 - 07:30 am:

trust you are having a good new year stoian

stoian wrote on Monday, January 12, 2009 - 02:29 am:
What's the Democracy and Freedom promised

Looks like we are being provided Equal Employment Opportunity, Anti Discrimination, and Ethical Approach to the current economic crisis: "Porn Bailout? " what is good for the goose is also good for the gander ~ <http://howestreet.com/audiovideo/> Mike 'Mish' Shedlock always has a passionate view on the markets and the important underpinning events....

Obama is soon to find that the Hegemony (including Playboy & Penthouse culture) not polititions run the world

Quote Mish "Stock Market is NOT cheep at all"! Numbers are selectively used to proove the status quo is dandy...

But as long as you trade the move (and not the news) then there is no cause for alarm

Happy trading DYOR

paddy

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Tuesday, January 13, 2009 - 10:40 pm:

Rudy / Skyhawk / Ody :

These charts with stoch suggest, to me at least, that the Way is Down.

I also think that the up-sloping Lower Boundary of the triangle has been broken to the downside setting up for a further drop.

rdumas

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Wednesday, January 14, 2009 - 09:41 am:

Hi Paddy,

Just repeating what I said in the Daily Bread thread.

The old problem of time frames is showing up again matey. I should really preface all posts that I do clearly stating which time frame I'm talking about.

I should also have indicated that the 'green' that I was talking about for markets in general would be the market action following the action coming out of the US market, not the market action prior to the close of the US market action.

Stochastics need to be seen in the timeframe discussed. The %K figure used in your Stochastic indicator is 14. The %K figure used in my Stocahstic indicator is 5. My Stochastic indicator is a short term view whereas yours is a longer term view. That is the reason for the difference in outcomes.

In the short term the S&P500 discontinued going down for the day as was clearly shown by the Stochastic indicator. There is no doubt in my mind that the change in direction is only very short term as the S&P500 has got a lot further to fall in the medium term.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

stoian

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Wednesday, January 14, 2009 - 07:02 pm:

rdumas,

Do you mean, "that"="such" FREEDOM were FREE_DOOM ?

rdumas

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Thursday, January 15, 2009 - 03:50 pm:

That went way over my head stoian. You'll have to keep it simple for me to understand you otherwise I'll just have to ignore your comments.

"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

stoian

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Friday, January 16, 2009 - 01:27 am:

Crisis the romanian way,

With english translation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEUdQ4cf9PA&eurl=http://forum.vamist.com/Criza-Fi nanciara-lume-t1836.html&st=140&p=11469

Mr. Giuliani takes it too serious !
Be more cheerful, Mr. Giuliani !
Life is too short, and does not deserve to die like mad!

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on January 16, 2009)

paddy

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Friday, January 16, 2009 - 01:50 am:

Doru : Here's to you and yours.

"An rud nach leigheasann im ná uisce beatha níl aon leigheas air.

Paddy

stoian

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Friday, January 16, 2009 - 02:00 am:

paddy wrote on Friday, January 16, 2009 - 02:50 am:
Doru : Here's to you and yours.
"An rud nach leigheasann im ná uisce beatha níl aon leigheas air.
Paddy

Irish spirit live forever

justice

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Friday, January 16, 2009 - 03:37 pm:

Suspiciously following Steve Hochberg's projection..
REM see post http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=6&post=143884

Yesterdays reversal candle at key fib level suggests he may be right. Although he doesn't refer to fibs in the chart shown.

Regarde,

justIce

(15 messages back in this thread)

(Message edited by justice on January 16, 2009)

paddy

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 08:11 am:

Justice / Rudy / Ody : The INDU carried out its mission to seek lower ground. Earlier this AM [ 09:45 ] a "M" pattern, that had started on 01152009 was completed and indicated a potential drop of 200± points from 8120 . Low was 7940 - a drop of 180 points . That pattern was in the 15 minute chart shown below.

justice

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 09:57 am:

paddy:

So. The brief pause at the Fib-line was just short-covering. 7200 not that far away now.

Peter Schiff Predictions: Obama to Usher in Great Depression Part II - Million Dollar Bonus for Stock Broker Losers
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=o8iLhUriBTg&feature=related

Max Keiser's YouTube channel.
http://au.youtube.com/user/MaxKeiserChannel

Regarde,

justIce

paddy

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 11:05 am:

Justice : Not yet but it is coming . Line up the targets - 7200 / 7100 ---- 6100 ----- and maybe 5400 .

Still a Long ways to Go

Paddy

justice

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 11:44 am:

paddy:
I'm in sympathy with the wave count of this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=60&b=2&g=0&i=p34451401666&a=67036682&r=271
- work of Anthony V. Caldaro (see his alternate charts)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67036682]&disp=P

We are clearly in Minor Wave 3 of the Intermediate Wave V having now been confirmed (by yesterday's break low) as commencing Jan 6 (end of Intermediate Wave IV)

Wave 3 should be the fastest and longest should this chart analysis prove true.

Your targets below the initial 7200 seem quite probable.
Martin Luther King will be turning in his grave right about now I imagine.

jI

paddy

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 12:48 pm:

Justice : Yes I don't think MLK's Dream was that the "chosen one" would be the ___________________ of the CPM [ Chicago Political Machine ].

Hilli muat atill be wondering - how the hell did he beat me ? He didn't - the CPM did.

You have a good one and see you soon at sub 7000 .

Paddy

(Message edited by paddy on January 21, 2009)

stoian

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 09:25 pm:

Dear Mr. President Barack Hussein Obama,

Let only the Order=Knowledge of God=the operative freemasonry be only with You !

And let the Chaos=Science of Evil=the speculative freemasonry alone !

We will help You all over the world !

America should become one of the most beautiful dreams for each of us, and should not became an ugly nightmare !

Sincerely Yours,
Doru Stoian

stoian

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 10:04 pm:

Please see, that the appearance of history proved that any corrections were stopped every time to the limit of the pink curve expressing the random support manifested in time.

justice

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 10:52 pm:

stoian:

If you could manage it would you please include a graph indicating total number of people remaining alive following evolution.

Thanks,
jI

stoian

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 11:26 pm:

Pi movie trailer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ1sZSCz47w&feature=related

CHAOS is really=truly NOT GIVEN in our Nature=Universe, but ONLY in the human mind=spirit=IMAGINATION (therefore is calling disease=incoherence) !

What really exists is calling only: DIS_ORDER !

But the DIS_ORDER is nothing else than a part of the already given ORDER (but is a hidden=a secret and intentional given one, called: THE INVERSE ORDER) which is as easy to before_see and predict it, like the ORDER is !

justice

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 11:34 pm:

Mr President needs the drill bit cure?

I see.

jI

stoian

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 11:51 pm:

justice wrote on Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 11:52 pm:
stoian:
If you could manage it would you please include a graph indicating total number of people remaining alive following evolution.
Thanks,
jI

Justice,

Do you know what "THE MIRROR" is ?

"THE MIRROR" is helping you:

TO REFRESH YOUR MEMORY=TO RE_MEMBER how it was as you were younger. Much, much younger than nowaday !

P.S
"THE MIRROR" is a "TIME MACHINE" !
http://groups.google.com/group/prognoze_si_previziuni/web/consideratii-statistic e-probabiliste-asupra-masinii-timpului

(Message edited by stoian on January 22, 2009)

stoian

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Wednesday, January 21, 2009 - 11:56 pm:

Justice,

The Outer Limits Intro

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WvPRKvIJrk

justice

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Thursday, January 22, 2009 - 12:03 am:

... it's full of stars.

justice

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Thursday, January 22, 2009 - 12:09 am:

However, the drill bit cure should work. Let's work on that one. Hillie next.

jI

stoian

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Thursday, January 22, 2009 - 01:00 am:

Justice and all others,

"THE MIRROR" is - like you can see - also known=called as:

1) " THE HOLY GRAIL";

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holy_Grail

2) "THE EYE OF HORUS";

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eye_of_Horus

or

3) "THE TIME MACHINE";

http://timemachine.countingdown.com/

or
4) " THE MAGIC MIRROR" (from the Sorceress in the fairy tale about Snow Withe);

http://www.220.ro/xKzvz6IedW/Alba-Ca-Zapada-Si-Vrajitoarea.html

or even:

5) "THE STARGATE HUB"

http://stargatehub.com/

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on January 22, 2009)

justice

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Thursday, January 22, 2009 - 01:05 am:

stoian:

Yes, but what drill bit size should I use?

jI

stoian

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Thursday, January 22, 2009 - 01:06 am:

Justice and friends,

From now on, if you need to use the SMAC=the Statistical and Mathematical Analyse on Chart, you only have to ask like follows:

" ... Magic Mirror on the wall (Wall Street), who now is the fairest (forecast) one of all (the network) ... ? "

(Message edited by stoian on January 22, 2009)

justice

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Thursday, January 22, 2009 - 01:21 am:

Doru,

Smile.

jI

stoian

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Thursday, January 22, 2009 - 01:54 am:

Dear Mr. President Obama,
My dear friends,

So, Albert Einstein was right and Werner Heisenberg was wrong, because:

1) TIME IS AN ILLUSION (and the time traveling or the black holes, also);

2) CHAOS IS AN ILLUSION;

3) ONLY THE ORDER RULES EVERYWHERE.

Therefore, the POSITION and ORBIT of ANY PARTICLE FROM=IN SPACE, is BEFORE_SEEN_ABLE at ANY moment of TIME!

Precisely enough, accordingly to the importance of the forecast, or in agreement with the importance of the precision=error, assumed in advance by the researcher !

Sincerely yours,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on January 22, 2009)

stoian

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Thursday, January 22, 2009 - 02:55 am:

Under recommendation, I will give up for the cynical posture (as a former disciple of Diogenes from Sinope, who chose the sunlight in place of the radiation from the Alexander The Great) and I choose - if allowed - the buffoon`s or jester`s role.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffoon

justice

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Thursday, January 22, 2009 - 03:06 am:

stoian:

YOU are no buffoon.

Let me know what Mr President replies.

jI

stoian

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Friday, January 23, 2009 - 07:18 pm:

Justice and other friends,

Because the DOW already had an EXCEPTIONAL MAXIMUM (symbolized through the dark green curve, the light green curve meaning - only - the RANDOM RESISTANCE over time) will be

- because of the exceptional character of the current financial and economic crisis also (being incomparable with other crisis because of the progress=experience of the entire human society) -

also possible even such scenarios are more and more less probable,

that:

1) the pink curve for the RANDOM SUPPORT over time to be exceeded;
2) and the red curve for the EXCEPTIONAL MINIMUM to be achieved.

As a natural reaction of the market, this worst scenario should not happen, because of the so many rescue plans valued at billions of dollars were allocated.

Regards,
Doru Stoian

stoian

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Friday, January 23, 2009 - 07:39 pm:

Dear Mr. President Barack Hussein Obama,

If you really want to rescue=save the american capital market and the global capital market also, than You should:

separate URGENT=TODAY, the REAL MARKETS: like the SPOT MARKETS (at sight or flat markets) and the FORWARD MARKETS (at a certain term markets) are,

from the ILLUSORY=VIRTUAL CASINO GAMES wrongly called a market, like the:

FUTURES AND OPTIONS CASINOS are.

Because, like You already can see:

FUTURE does not necessarily meaning FORWARD !

This two normal human activities, must be IMMEDIATELY separated from each other:

1) betting or gambling;

from

2) investing.

The CAPITAL MARKET must regain his TRUST=very serious ROLE, instead to perpetuate in his place SOME CASINO GAMES, thus leaving a free field for events like:

ARTIFICIAL CRISIS.

The economic destiny of the whole planet, is not allowed to be won or lost at roulette.

"Waters must be immediately separated, instead of trying to walk on them"

Sincerely Yours,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on January 23, 2009)

stoian

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Friday, January 23, 2009 - 07:56 pm:

Futures and Options casinos are only:

BLACK HOLES,

whose gravity would absorb=defeat any rescue plans for the REAL MARKETS !

I hope that this world is not a Satanic Paradise, but indeed a Garden of Eden.

Because the ARTIFICIAL RISK is not the same thing with the NATURAL RISK.

(Message edited by stoian on January 23, 2009)

justice

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Friday, January 23, 2009 - 08:10 pm:

stoian:

An continuing Minor Wave 3 of Intermediate Wave V will fit in strategically within your latest Evolutionary prognosis.

jI

BEWARE: Black HOLE in White House

When it comes to war...America means business.
(War, Inc.) - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/
(The Corporation) http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=192012118972057552&ei=rEf-SLO4C5PuqAKP47zsDg&q=the+corporation

The Money Masters: How International Bankers Gained Control of America
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936

Abolish Fractional Reserve Banking - End the Fed

paddy

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Saturday, February 07, 2009 - 11:27 pm:

Breakout or Fake Out

Technicians characterize triangular patterns as a “coiled spring”. Triangles represent consolidation and indecision. Breakouts from triangles are considered significant as they tend to forecast the next major direction of the underlying index or stock.

As I write this, the non-farm payroll figure came in slightly worse than expected but the market rallied anyhow. More importantly for technicians, the S&P 500 staged an upside breakout from a triangular pattern.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/119074-breakout-or-fake-out?source=email

justice

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Friday, February 20, 2009 - 07:09 am:

Minimum downside target is 7117 (using Minor Wave 3 cannot be smaller than Minor Wave 1.) (In WAVE V down - and assuming a failed Minor 5 down) Realistic target is 6775 to complete Wave V. There will be some bounce/s - (Minor wave 4 at least). Otherwise the wave-count will need revising.

I'm in sympathy with the wave count of this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=60&b=2&g=0&i=p34451401666&a=67036682&r=271
- work of Anthony V. Caldaro (see his alternate charts)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67036682]&disp=P

j

(Message edited by justice on February 20, 2009)

Knowing, without the concept of thinking attached to it, is called wisdom.

justice

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Friday, February 20, 2009 - 03:31 pm:

paddy:

And a fine turn of the screw it is when one might equaly suspect the PPT to be the ones doing the shorting as the buying.

Regards,
j

(Message edited by justice on February 20, 2009)

Knowing, without the concept of thinking attached to it, is called wisdom.

rastus81

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Saturday, March 14, 2009 - 11:34 am:

Has anyone heard why Signal Watch has taken intermission? I am not promoting their site. I just find it an interesting read.

sway

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Saturday, March 14, 2009 - 11:59 am:

They have replaced Daily Signal with Signal Watch Live

http://signalwatchlive.nirvanasystems.com/

I have installed but haven't had a good look yet

Cheers
Sway

This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

rastus81

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Saturday, March 14, 2009 - 12:15 pm:

I think i'll give it a miss. Too fancy for me.

stoian

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 09:11 pm:

Dearly beloved,

In view of the measures taken from the Barack Obama administration together with the G 20, such as:

1) Uptick Rule=the expulsion of the gamblers from the real=true market, back into the futures & options casino;

2) Mark to Market Rule=or disclosure of the real=true accounting value to the minority of investors;

3) abolition of banking secrecy and tax paradises,

A NEW HISTORY for the EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET is yet provided !

In the first chart, you will se that the level about 7.100 points, is a HISTORICAL MINIMUM.

In the second chart, you will see that:
a) The effects of the September 2001 attacks were less sensitive on the U.S. equity market when it comes to wars and loss of life;
b) The international financial crisis was much more sensitive on the U.S. equity market when it comes to money.

In the third chart, you will see the MOST PROBABLE NEXT EVOLUTION IN TIME=FOR THE NEAR FUTURE !

Regards,

Doru Stoian

stoian

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Post Number: 523
Registered: 03-2004

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Friday, April 10, 2009 - 10:10 pm:

Warning!

The trans_position of the estimated evolution over the dummy=illusory field called time, like highlighted on the graphics from above, was made after the assignment of a Devil `s Staircase inside of the Gaussian Likelihoods Field.

Laity essential questions, made mandatory in this order:

- Do you believe, that the future deviation of the TENDENCY from her TREND, will ever overcome her deviation proven by the history?

correct answer: NO!

- Do you believe that the spreading of the future=next individual=local values, from their TENDENCY in time, can ever overcome the spreading proven bu the same history ?

correct answer: NO!

In conclusion: THE WHOLE RISK like defined by R.A. Fisher is already fully known in advance=with anticipation !

!

justice

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 01:53 am:

We are gathered here:

Obama = Obey me

Messiah my mongrel foot.

1 BILLION inches is half way round the earth
13 TRILLION inches is 600 laps of the earth

Wake up - DO NOT OBAMA - EVER

Regards,

justice

stoian

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 02:49 am:

Justice,

" Christ is risen !

Truly is risen ! "

You know already, I tell the truth and nothing but the truth !

So help me God !

We are in front of a TENDENCY RETURN towards the TREND !

World does not end here !
Here is just a new beginning !

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-says-economy-showing-apf-14901049.html

Regards,
Doru Stoian

(Message edited by stoian on April 11, 2009)

paddy

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Post Number: 1505
Registered: 03-2008

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Votes: 1


Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 03:41 am:

Justice :

Obie wasn't bowing - he was "breaking wind" !!!

Regards,

Paddy

justice

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Post Number: 1045
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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 05:13 pm:

stoian:
If I were to entertain the notion of yet another solstice type deity he would be more patient and wait for the orthodox festivities rather than pander to the heathen calendar.

Cheers,
j

stoian

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 06:13 pm:

Justice,

TIME is only an illusion !
Some events happen anyway !
So, no matter who announces the "exact hour" !

Regards,
Doru Stoian

justice

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Post Number: 1046
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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 09:56 pm:

stoian wrote on Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 07:13 pm:
TIME is only an illusion !
Some events happen anyway !
So, no matter who announces the "exact hour" !

A tortological conundrum. How droll. We need to work on your sarcasm a bit more, now that the humour detour has been peroused with a view to conquer.

Regards
j

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