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     paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 149
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 13, 2008 - 07:11 am: |  
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Another SELL the rally day .
DOW [ $INDU ] traded between 12275 and 12053 . Closing at 12141.58 after reaching a High of 12269.24
For Friday Max in any "rally" 12360 Low 11900
Of course same action in $SPX with action confined to between 1356 and 1327 .
For Friday Max in any "rally" 1359 Low 1302
Today your XJO High 5372 Low 5219
Regards,
Paddy
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 164
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 18, 2008 - 01:02 pm: |
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If 12083 Fails tomorrow then could see a test to as Low as 11933. Or perhaps even down to 11877.
Any Sell Rally might not even get past 12117 . Max 12360.
Perhaps "skids" getting greased for OIL.
Regards,
Paddy
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 1475
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 18, 2008 - 05:20 pm: |
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Hi Paddy,
There is good support at 11946 and 11741 as I see it.
Cheers
Rudy
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 165
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 18, 2008 - 08:55 pm: |
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Rudy : If the Dow gets down to 11741 then it will test 11524. However I think it will go sub 10000 before all is said and done .
Regards,
Paddy
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 166
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 18, 2008 - 11:10 pm: |
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Dow sub 10000 is on the menu.
Things are not getting better:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fedex-swings-fourth-quarter-loss-charges/s tory.aspx?guid=%7B2437FB1D%2DD6DF%2D492D%2DB05C%2DA718F7311A28%7D
"FDX 84.33, -1.70, -2.0%) said Wednesday that it swung to a fourth-quarter loss of $241 million, or 78 cents a share, from a profit of $610 million, or $1.96 a share, a year earlier."
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/shares-europe-drop-sharply-banks/story.asp x?guid=%7B18B3EBD7%2D7170%2D4752%2D87B9%2DD630579E13BF%7D
The bank sector losses followed a weaker session for U.S. financial stocks on Tuesday, when Goldman Sachs analysts warned that U.S. banks might need to raise as much as $65 billion in new capital, with losses in the financial sector not expected to peak until next year
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fifth-third-raise-1b-capital/story.aspx?gu id=%7B8FCE4790%2DFBF6%2D4714%2D9C14%2DA9CEB56E9796%7D Thi
FITB 12.73, -0.83, -6.1%) on Wednesday said it will cut its dividend and raise $1 billion in new capital from convertible preferred shares, saying it does not expect conditions to improve in the near-term.
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 167
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 01:08 am: |
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/five-things-pave-way-downside/story.aspx?g uid=%7B07D009FC%2DCFAB%2D4593%2DAB9A%2D89F99CB89727%7D
One man's opinion that I tend to agree with:
Excerpt from article :
" I've learned a few things over the course of my career, three of which currently warrant particular attention. First, the reaction to news is more important than the news itself. Second, stay humble or the market will do it for you. Third, discipline must always trump conviction.
With those lessons in tow, I wanted to explore another topic, one that few people have a motivation to discuss. It's the risk of a seismic equity readjustment, a possibility that has much higher odds than most people currently foresee."
Regards,
Paddy
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stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 400
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 05:12 am: |
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Paddy,
Yes, the answer is: YES, the risk of a seismic equity readjustment is a possibility that has much higher odds=probabilities than most people currently foresee !
And not only for the risk of a decrease in time, but also for the risk of an increase in time.
Only The Game Theory is assuming - even from the START, from the BEGINNING of the experiment=events - in a wrong way - only a THEORETICAL one - calling AN IDEAL MODEL, that each of the possibilities have equal chances=probabilities to produce itself=to appear in time, but - PRACTICALLY - the probability for each possibility in part, are hidden for most of the people.
Regards,
Doru Stoian
(Message edited by stoian on June 19, 2008)
(Message edited by stoian on June 19, 2008)
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 168
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 06:20 am: |
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Was quite a battle on the NYSE today . The $INDU oscillated between 12083 and on downside 12028 - 12012 - 12002 - 11986 . with a CLOSE at 12029.06 . By my numbers a Close below 12028 would have made 11986 on deck for a test tomorrow . Probably still will see it tested unless a grand effort at a spin rally is conducted tomorrow.
The Dow finally dropped below the Weekly SMA 150 [ 12083 ] sandwiched between two Fibonacci levels @ 12095 and 12053 .
I also believe that we are getting close to seeing if the Triangle is for real . I make the downside boundary at 11980± which is essentially the same level as a Fibonacci level @ 11986 .
For tomorrow
12083 should provide very strong Resistance to any attempt at a rally. Max upside would be 12142.
Downside , the direction of choice, 12028 - 12012 - 12002 - 11986 - 11933 - 11912 - 11877 .
That will be enough although I think 11986 will not fall easily.
Regards,
Paddy
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 169
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 06:49 am: |
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Doru: Got a little closer today to the start of the "event" . As you noted, there are very few folks talking or writing about what is in store for the Dow . I'm sure there will be a few other Markets affected by the "event".
Can see effects here in Mexico . People have returned because no work . Layoffs at maquilladoras as they can't sell product in USA .
Still a long ways to go.
Regards,
Paddy
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 170
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 11:48 am: |
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Tryhay : Who knows - maybe it will work this time . What I would like to know is: Is it correct to draw a line using all the major LOWS to define the Lower Boundary of a Triangle ? I estimate that today the INDU came very close to touching said Line .
Other question - Is the INDU completing the Right Shoulder of a "medusa" H & S pattern?
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 171
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 12:14 pm: |
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Another chart of the $INDU . The SMA150 line is almost sub-parallel to the line that would be defined by the major Lows . This would form a Triangle with a potential down-drop of 2000+ points . Any comments?
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stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 401
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 06:28 pm: |
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Paddy,
This is the reason for, i hate and i am not practising the Technical Analyse.
Because the Technical Analyse, manipulates the EYES AND MINDS OF THE PEOPLE=INVESTORS AND SPECULATORS, with a VIEW=IMAGE=CHART which is ONLY given by
SUCH A TIMEFRAME, NOT RANDOM=NOT A FREE ONE AT ALL, but only A LIMITED ONE because was not taken THE ENTIRE=THE WHOLE EVOLUTION even she is already given=it`s free to chose the entire=whole=complete timeframe,
that was chosen by the "analyst" in such a way=a manner - apparently in an accidentally=free=random way=manner, but finally a very subjective one - to help him as analyst - or better said: as a mysticist=a sorcerer - to demonstrate=to prove to other people, only those things=results that he was establishing before starting his "analyse".
Things=results - or better said "SPECIAL EFFECTS" - THAT PEOPLE=INVESTORS AND SPECULATORS WOULD AND SHOULD SEE ONLY, AND CERTAINLY EXPECTING THEM TO RE_ACT, ONLY TO THAT WHAT THEY CAN=WERE ALLOWED TO SEE !
Regards,
Doru Stoian
(Message edited by stoian on June 19, 2008)
(Message edited by stoian on June 19, 2008)
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stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 402
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 06:34 pm: |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRgIbKEsYT4
" .... i got two "pegs on the nose". "SMAC" on the nose Sal... "
Dictionary:
1) pegs=limits;
2) SMAC=Statistical and Mathematical Analyse (made on) Chart.
(Message edited by stoian on June 19, 2008)
(Message edited by stoian on June 19, 2008)
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 510
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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