Archive through June 16, 2008

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captain_chaza

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Post Number: 3136
Registered: 02-2003

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, April 09, 2008 - 07:18 pm:

Ahoy Sea-Cadet-Officer Sway

I think predictions are for Lunatics Gypsies Fortune Tellers and the like

A sailor can only see as far as the horizon and anything beyond is merely a guess

For tomorrow I'd bet it was going to be a green day based on the horizon I see ATM

The day after ONE full revolution of the Sun is another matter

Who knows what is over the horizon?

Nobody does!
It is all guess work

The ONES you should throw overboard IMMEDIATELY are those who claim that they can see the future in the medium and Long term

IE: They claim they can see the future sea and weather patterns weeks months and even years before they happen

HOW CRAZY IS THAT?
IMO At sea on the ASX they wouldn't last a few revolutions of the Sun

It is no wonder most of these Landlubbers have vowed to never return to the sea

Usually after these great Southerly Busters it takes the next Generation of Kin to take the Helm

AND YES
They all make the same mistakes again

Salute and Gods' speed

NB: "Courage is not given to all"

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

sway

Member

Post Number: 203
Registered: 12-2005

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Votes: 0


Thursday, April 10, 2008 - 09:40 pm:

My point was that after 2 months of doomsday talk, the dow has changed by a grand total of 40 pts or 0.4% ..... UP!

captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 3140
Registered: 02-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, April 11, 2008 - 04:40 pm:

Ahoy Brave and Loyal Crew

We now have Wind in our Bank Classes of sail

Hold onto your hats when our Dear Friar sees the Higher Lows!!!! And opens up his purse?

Salute and Gods speed

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on April 11, 2008)

captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 3162
Registered: 02-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, April 21, 2008 - 08:40 pm:

We now have the Chinese, Japanese and Indians in our back pocket!

It doesn't ever get much better than this!

Fertilizer is King!

Salute and Gods" speed

captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 3166
Registered: 02-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, April 23, 2008 - 06:43 pm:

Ahoy Brave and Loyal Crew

Stick to the plan and hold on tight

Stick to the Top 2 or 3 Sectors as I/we have done for the last 5 Years

No Bears in-sight as I speak!

Just keep "Plain Sailing" on the quality Sectors
and to Hell with the rest

Salute and Gods' speed

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on April 23, 2008)

adzman

Member

Post Number: 125
Registered: 08-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, April 23, 2008 - 07:33 pm:

Top 2 or 3 sectors Captain? Could you elaborate for me please?

I'm guessing resources as one, the others?

Please help a novice.

Adz

captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 3167
Registered: 02-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, April 24, 2008 - 04:04 pm:

Ahoy Adzman

You are right in identifying "Resources" as One Group
The only other is "Industrials"

IE: XAO = Resources + Industrials

The next step is to devide these TWO huge Groups into Sectors/Classes of sail

Maybe 10 sectors in each halve
If you know what I mean?

Some sectors will be booming on top of the waves and others will be falling into a trough

I have never ever met a "Superman" who can do ALL the Additions Subtractions Multiplications and Divisions necessary to make an Intelligent argument on the Market as a whole , Say for eg the XAO

You don't need to be a Rhodes scholar to figure out which Sectors have "Avoided" the Bear market and are if Fact in a Bull market

The XAO is very diverse in nature and in Sectors and the SUM of all is merely pedantic garbage to academics who have no "money on the line"

Once you learn to Buy on the dips in the Bullish Sectors and Sell on the Rallies in the Bearish Sectors,
Sailing against the All Ords gets to be a lot of FUN!

Salute and Gods' speed

captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 3171
Registered: 02-2003

Rating:
Votes: 3


Saturday, May 03, 2008 - 05:15 pm:

Ahoy Brave and Loyal Crew

A timely reprint I think in these times as we witness how many Fundamentalists have "Simply missed the boat"
"Again!"

Pleas Refer chart above on post 3126

Crikey! God help us when they say it is finly safe to go a Sailing

If they can be so far out of reality since mid-March in one of the best sailing seasons I have ever seen what chances would do you give them of being right the next time?

"Fundamental v Technical "

“No man can serve two masters,” wrote Saint Matthew.

There are two basic approaches for deciding the future direction a sailing ship of any size and design might move.

The fundamentalist approach is faced with a massive information-gathering problem. Every fact relevant to the craft must be known and weighted according to its importance and its price equation. The skipper here assumes his own interpretations and his known facts are better than average.

He will analyze all the facets of world politics and its effects on the global economic community on a regular basis. He will study each member of the global exchange from currencies and interest rates to commodities and raw materials, to the latest developments in design technologies in the multitude areas of human activity.

He then turns his head to the economic statistics price/earning ratios, dividend yields, company reports on as many ships as he can mentally digest and consume as much written matter time allows. This is truly an awesome task for any skipper even those with a crew of skilled academics on each floor of a high-rise office building.

Unfortunately for the fundamentalist by the time he receives most of his information and statistics it is hopelessly out of date. By the time he evaluates and mixes up his recipe for a rational decision the moon has moved the tides. He often complains he is living in an irrational world and that the world has just gone temporally mad. Naturally, “She’ll be right in the long term,” he always says.

How often does a ship move in the opposite direction immediately after a good or bad report? Since information is never leaked in this fairest of all sports with its strong rules of fair disclosure, he will often claim an event has already been factored into the equation by the gamblers. How often does he cling to the skimpiest of fundamental good news as the price descends deeper and deeper south?

Because this has happened so often in the past it has even turned some fundamentalist heads inside out and they have developed a reverse fundamental approach.

This down-under, upside-down fundamentalist or contrarian viewpoint has surprising much to offer. Here the skipper has acknowledged the fact that punching the latest fundamentals into his computer will result in garbage.

He has accepted the fact that everything has been leaked and that it is not a fair game at all, but All-Out War.

Also, in view of his past experiences he has decided that he hasn’t been as close to the good information chain link as he would have liked and refuses to be fair game in the future.

The Technical believes that no fundamental fact whatsoever matters unless the masses have this shared psychology and provides the only mechanism to measure this irrational and emotional component.

Any experienced campaigner knows and the novice will soon discover how deeply the counter productive aspects of tension, anticipation and anxiety alter the way a skipper sails the seas. Usually directly proportional to the funds committed.

The technical believes the oceans are extremely efficient with its global sharing of information and regularly observes the actions of others, not their talk.

The technical can put objectivity at the helm and control the nemesis of all sailors at sea on the Global Exchange namely, emotion and rationale. They provide the mechanism to set entry and exit points, set risk/reward ratios and even foster a safety and risk management approach to sailing in all types of sea and weather conditions.

Technical allows the skipper to step back and gain a better insight and perspective of the Global Exchange and carry out numerous ship surveys. A chart is worth more than a thousand words.

The technical viewpoint encompasses every participant’s knowledge and beliefs about the future direction a craft may head next. It takes into account all the known facts as well as the human interpretation of those facts. More importantly it also takes into account fundamental news not yet known to the general public and is right up to date.

Finally, the fundamental academic with the I know all attitude who has ridiculed and under estimated his technical opponent for so many years, now believes he has room on board for some technical.

Unfortunately, as more and more skippers sail on technical, more ships are now moving accordingly, there is no room onboard for any fundamentalist with his long term excuse and his minuscule amount of up to date facts. He is in fact a most dangerous dinosaur to have onboard. He must be avoided at all costs and only regarded as fair game. Whether he is a bull or a bear he cannot change his spots and will always cloud a skipper’s judgment and coarse many costly delays.

Sailing in this modern era is ONLY about
the Technical verses Technical.

Salute and Gods' Speed

gdd3

Member

Post Number: 290
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, May 05, 2008 - 12:06 pm:

Here Here, Cap. (or should that be "Hear Hear"!)...every now and then the Captain comes out with a great post worthy of taking notice. You, and many of we T.A.ers, have been saying this for decades however definitely a post worth of repeating...well done(but pls note it was not me that gave you the 5-stars altho I think this is justified).

Cheers
Dolphin

captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 3173
Registered: 02-2003

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Votes: 0


Monday, May 05, 2008 - 06:22 pm:

Ahoy 1st Officer Dolphin

Thanks for the thumbs up

It is amazing that I wrote that piece in 1994 and nothing has changed since then

I felt that it was worth repeating in these times after watching the confusion and therefore CHAOS in thinking on the "Bakers" thread

As you know I tried to tell them that they were well out of sync with the market and
COULD YOU BELIEVE IT?
I then got banned from that thread

As St Jude wrote
"You can't Help the Hopeless"

The hopeless IMHO hide under the cover of "Time Frames"
Only a Mother would believe

In reality A weekly chart is as important as is a daily chart in the short term

They both work in tandem in the short term

In the medium term
I do not know of anything that works
DO YOU?

As for the long term
I am even more amused and bewildered at these MAD landlubbers claims of accurate Long-Weather and Sea forecasting

It just can't be done! IMHO

Does anyone?

Crikey!
One only needs to read a few IC FA posts to see
how right I was then and now again in 2008

I felt it was well worth repeating in these times as we have so many examples on another IC thread

From my experience with FA Only the participants change
It is usually a generational thing

The fact still remains

Technical verses Technical

Salute and Gods' speed

captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 3174
Registered: 02-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 07, 2008 - 07:13 pm:

TIME FRAMES

Once again my petty hate of the Time frame mentality have fallen of deaf ears

WHEN
Is a bottom a bottom ?
WHEN
Is a top a top?

OR
Is there a bottom for Short termers
Is there another bottom for Medium termers ?
AND
Is there another bottom for Long termers?

Sounds CRAZY but that is what is in the minds of many landlubber's

I am still waiting for anyone to explain to me the absurd notion/idea/reasoning of the Three Bottoms theory

To me every bottom or top is the same
They are the at the same point in any chart

EI: They are defined as they have been defined on the charts

All three tops and all three Bottoms are at the same point

It is and will always be at the same point whether you be a Short term, Medium term or Long termer

Time frames is all a lot of palaver IMHO and only a poor landlubber's excuse to be a disclaimer

and as always "Only a mother would believe"

Salute and Gods' speed

NB: Buying and selling at Tops and Bottoms has nothing to do with Time Frames

captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 3191
Registered: 02-2003

Rating:
Votes: 5


Sunday, May 18, 2008 - 04:41 pm:

Ahoy Brave and Loyal crew

Rederob posted on the Bakers thread

"I don't find his posts of value, and others can form their own conclusions: You certainly proved your point about BRICs."

Well in reply
all I wish to ask is please explain and direct me to your most valued post in both fact and in Market timing!

I have never seen ONE!

With regard to Ody's BRIC analysis you are of course aged over 18 and therefore welcome to have an opinion

I was merely pointing out that Australia does not have many BRIC's (Those companies that generate 40-50% of their income/wealth from those 4 emerging markets BRIC)

IE;
I have seen no evaluation from Ody / Rudy of the few Australian BRIC sensitive stocks

It seems to me that their source of most of their FA is Copy/Paste American palaver and lacks Australian implications

At least I picked the Bottom and Had the guts to call it
and have enjoyed more than 50% gains in the last 9 weeks

NB: It's the Fastest 50% I have seen in over 27 years

I am absolutely thrilled to see that the Sweet Fundamentalists have missed the boat again

It just simply makes my Weekend! LOL!

For Confirmation
Please Refer to the Charts on post 3092 and 3126

I look forward to Rederob Ody and Co to point out to me what they call their best "Value Post"

I for one will not be holding my breath

Salute and Gods' speed

NB: Brave and Loyal Crew
As is being demonstrated on That Other Thread ATM
Misery loves Company and they just Don't like Winners

PS: Please respond in this thread for those that DARE as I have switched off that "Hilarious American Copy /Paste Bakers' insight into baking bread on a daily basis without doing a thing

PPS" In Rederob's Case
I would even accept a VALUE & TIMING posted on any other forums to make my point

I repeat
I have never seen one from him from anywhere

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on May 18, 2008)

peter1

Member

Post Number: 233
Registered: 12-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, May 18, 2008 - 10:55 pm: