Global Alumina posts second quarter loss of US$1.9 million
Global Alumina Corp. (TSX:GLA.U), a company developing an alumina refinery in the west African country of Guinea, says it lost US$1.9 million in the second quarter, compared with a net profit of $84.3 million for the same 2007 period.
NO wonder investors get confused. Last week, copper prices hit a six-month low of $US7605 a tonne, yet Chile's state copper commission, Cochilco, had just a few days earlier raised its average copper price forecast for 2008 to $US8331/tonne from $US6832 previously, citing a weak dollar and weaker than expected output, especially in Chile.
The swirling mists envelop not only the base metals, but the precious ones, too. Pick a gold scenario that suits you and, whatever that might be, there'll be an expert or an analyst somewhere that you can find who shares that view. Some will argue that gold is set to soar as the great safe haven, others are already writing off its most recent rally as being over.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in July, as falling auto sales offset in increase in gasoline sales sparked by higher prices, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday.
Excluding the 2.4% drop in vehicle sales, seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.4% in July.
Excluding the 0.8% rise in gasoline sales, retail sales fell 0.2%.
Excluding both autos and gas, sales rose 0.3%. Sales were a bit stronger than expected.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to fall 0.3% in July.
Excluding autos, sales were expected to rise 0.5%.
Sales in June were revised higher to a 0.3% gain from 0.1% originally estimated.
NEARLY 60 per cent of institutional investors expect another major financial firm to collapse in the next six months and almost three-quarters believe a major bank failure within a year is likely, a new survey has found.
According to the Financial Times, the survey of 146 European, US and Canadian institutions by Greenwich Associates found investors believed such an event would pose a "serious threat" to global markets. Frank Feenstra, a consultant at Greenwich Associates, said "most institutions think we are currently in the most dangerous period for global financial services firms".
It has always been your Company's intention to maximise the value of its large nickel resource base through product beneficiation. It is very pleasing therefore, to report that shortly after the end of the year under review, we signed a memorandum of understanding with Jiangxi Rare Earth and Rare Metals Tungsten Group, a major, State owned, Chinese metals producer, for the financing and construction of a, jointly owned, nickel cobalt leaching plant and associated refinery. The leaching plant, with an annual capacity of up to 40,000 tonnes mixed hydroxide product, will be sited in the Philippines and will treat ore from our Ipilan deposit located on the east coast of Palawan island. The refinery will be located in China.
...........The Berong Nickel Mine has been in operation for just over one year and has successfully made shipments of laterite ore to Chinese and Australian customers. For the full year April 1 2007 through March 31 2008, approximately 467,278 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 1.52%Ni was shipped. From the commencement of trial metallurgical shipments in January 2007 until the end of June 2008, approximately 815,000 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 1.52% Ni was shipped into the market place.......
An agreement was reached with BHP Billiton for the long term supply of laterite ore to the Yabulu plant in Queensland, Australia. The agreement is for the supply of up to 500,000 wet metric tons of ore per year, and runs for 5 years with BHP Billiton having the option to extend this for a further 5 years. .......
The profit for the year from ordinary activities before tax amounted to £1,206,702 (2007 loss: £1,264,416). The directors do not recommend the payment of a dividend.,,,,,,
Australia's Commonwealth Bank says profits up seven pct
Australia's biggest bank on Wednesday said its annual profit had risen seven percent but warned of global uncertainty and a slowing economy in the year ahead.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) said net profit for the financial year ended June 30 was 4.8 billion dollars (4.1 billion US), while cash earnings rose 4.6 percent to a better-than-expected 4.7 billion dollars.
The supply report is "bullish and enough to have the bulls pawing to get out of the corral," said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics. "Two months ago, it would have caused a $4 spike in oil prices, but given the state of the economy and relatively week demand data the bulls should be happy with a $2 up tick," he said in emailed comments. "In a couple of months, when we have the revised data, which will show even lower demand, the data will look neutral at best," he said......
U.S. stock-market action next week is likely to take cues from the currency and commodities markets.
"The biggest driver we'll see in the market next week is the price of a barrel of oil," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
"Unless we get some crazy M&A activity on Monday, the only monkey wrench I see is some skeleton falling out of some financial closet, or something heats up in Georgia," Hogan said, referring to Russia's recent military conflict with its former Soviet Republic neighbor.
Sluggish growth, inflation to persist: Fed's Evans
Slow economic growth and elevated inflation will probably continue until 2010, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said Friday.
Speaking to the chamber of commerce in Bloomington, Ill., Evans said the Fed is fighting a three-front war: sluggish growth, uncomfortably high inflation and a distressed financial sector.
Broker's ability to return to 'acceptable' profitability challenged, KBW says
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may report another $3 billion of write-downs from its third quarter as the brokerage firm aggressively reduces risks on its balance sheet, Mike Mayo, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, estimated Wednesday.
Lehman reportedly in talks to sell $40 bln in real estate assets
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc
has had talks with several groups about possibly selling its real estate assets and securities, which are worth about $40 billion, the Financial Times reported on its Web site Friday.
Third Point's Loeb Buys Stake in BHP in 2nd Quarter
Third Point LLC, the New York-based hedge fund run by Daniel Loeb, bought a stake in BHP Billiton Ltd. worth $162 million at the end of June, adding the world's largest mining company to its portfolio.
Dallas Fed chief Richard W. Fisher speaks his mind in Q&A
Richard W. Fisher, president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, has earned a reputation this year as one of the nation's leading inflation hawks.
Richard W. Fisher, president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, gave insights into the decision-making of Fed governors in setting interest rates.
As a voting member of the Fed committee that sets benchmark interest rates, he has cast his ballot against the majority in every rate decision this year. He's even argued that rates should be higher, despite the economic downturn.
In a wide-ranging interview with reporters and editors at The Dallas Morning News last week, Mr. Fisher discussed inflation, as well as his views on everything from the economic outlook to the cost of wire hangers at your local dry cleaner. You've been voting against Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the majority on the Federal Open Market Committee all year, and recently you've been arguing that interest rates should be higher. Why?
Xstrata Faces Rival Bids for Lonmin, Telegraph Says
Xstrata Plc's 5 billion-pound ($9.3 billion) takeover plan for Lonmin Plc is being challenged by other bidders, including Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., the Sunday Telegraph reported, citing sources it didn't identify.
An Iranian official in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Saturday that the producers group is considering leaving oil production levels unchanged or perhaps even trimming them to shore up flagging prices and defend market share.
"The market is oversupplied by at least 1 million barrels a day. If OPEC would like to remove this additional oil out of the market, then OPEC has to cut some production," OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi told Dow Jones in a telephone interview.
Saudi oil facility linked to Pakistan president's safe exit - sources
Islamabad: The desperately-needed Saudi Oil Facility (SOF) worth $5 billion for Islamabad has been linked to a political deal between the coalition government and Musharraf for giving safe exit to the latter.
Also, Saudi authorities are annoyed over the coalition government's failure to follow up its requests for obtaining the SOF in an effective manner, as neither the finance minister nor the petroleum minister paid any visit to Saudi Arabia as a follow-up.
IT SHOULD come as no surprise that Xstrata Coal prides itself on its ability to integrate acquisitions.
The coalminer has been on a buying spree, having spent more than $2 billion purchasing Resource Pacific, Austral Coal and Centennial Coal's Anvil Hill project during the last year.
That is not to say it is always successful. In the past two years it has made failed attempts to buy Felix Resources,
It all started with the US property market and some very sloppy lending practices.
Banks and unscrupulous brokers were giving mortgages to so-called subprime borrowers – people who clearly could not afford to pay , but the banks and brokers didn't care because: a) house prices were rising so they could repossess and sell for a profit and: b) the brokers were being paid huge commissions for arranging these loans...............
..........So, while banks around the world write off billions of dollars in losses, Australian banks might actually end up regarding the credit crunch as the best thing that could have happened to them, because it has wiped out their competition.
The Iraqi government is likely to abandon plans to sign short-term contracts with foreign oil companies, negotiations over which have stalled, a senior U.S. diplomat in Baghdad said on Sunday.
”It appears that on present form (the Iraqi government) probably won’t proceed with most of these or all of them,” Charles Ries, coordinator for Iraq’s economic transition at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, told reporters.
”But I think that some of the companies are open to continued discussions even on relationship grounds, and some of the companies ... don’t think it’s worth their time.”....
Sarkozy threatens 'consequences' as Russia stalls on Georgia pullout
European leaders warned Russia today to withdraw forces rapidly from Georgia or face unspecified "consequences", as Moscow stalled on its pledges to honour a ceasefire and pull back thousands of troops from the Caucasus republic
Housing Starts Probably Slumped in July: U.S. Economy Preview
U.S. builders began work in July on the fewest houses in 17 years and the economic outlook dimmed, indicating the real-estate slump is at the epicenter of the growth slowdown, economists said before reports this week.
Selling pressure in futures could drive oil below $110
Abu Dhabi: Global oil prices may weaken to $110 a barrel or lower this week due to heavy selling pressure in the oil futures market and declining demand from major consumer nations, say industry experts.
"The markets will watch out for Ben Bernanke's statements on the Federal Reserve, European data on economic growth and stronger reaction from the world community against Russia's military action in Georgia," said Dalton Garis,......
Oil Rises Above $115 as Tropical Storm Fay Nears Gulf of Mexico
.....``Fay is causing the market to edge up a bit,'' said Victor Shum, senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. ``The increase is also a result of an oversold market on Friday and some participants see that as a buying opportunity.''......
BHP Billiton fiscal-year profit up 15%, revenue up 25%
Mining giant BHP Billiton said Monday that its fiscal-year net profit rose 14.7% to $15.39 billion, after revenue climbed 25.3% to $59.57 billion. Analysts had been expecting average net profit of $15.86 billion, according to data compiled by Dow Jones Newswires. BHP Billiton lifted its dividend by 48.9% to 70 cents a share......
U.S. home builders were as gloomy in August as they've ever been about the housing market, but saw some reason to hope that the recent housing relief bill could help, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday.
......There is a sense that home sales may soon reach a turning point," said Sandy Dunn, president of the builders' industry group and a builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. "Builders are anticipating the stimulative effects of this legislation and are optimistic that the tax credit will give those buyers who've been sitting on the fence the reason they need to jump back into the market."....
In the mortgage industry, they are called "liar loans" — mortgages approved without requiring proof of the borrower's income or assets. The worst of them earn the nickname "ninja loans," short for "no income, no job, and (no) assets."
The nation's struggling housing market, already awash in subprime foreclosures, is now getting hit with a second wave of losses as homeowners with liar loans default in record numbers. In some parts of the country, the loans are threatening to drag out the mortgage crisis for another two years.
"Those loans are going to perform very badly," said Thomas Lawler, a Virginia housing economist. "They're heavily concentrated in states where home prices are plummeting" such as California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.
Many homeowners with liar loans are stuck. They can't refinance because housing prices in those markets have nose-dived, and lenders are now demanding full documentation of income and assets......
U.S. stocks hammered by financials; Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac each drop more than 20%
Stocks fell sharply Monday, with financial-sector woes coming back to the fore amid reports of more losses at Lehman Brothers and of a bail-out for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
°°°°° The Dow Jones Industrial Average Last:11,479.39
°°°°° The S&P 500 index dipped 19 points to 1,278,
National City Bonds Show Defaults KeyCorp Can't Deny
Never have regional banks been so disrespected by bondholders.
National City Corp. Chief Executive Officer Peter Raskind says Ohio's biggest lender is the ``best capitalized of all major U.S. banks'' after raising $7 billion this year, yet its bonds show it's at risk of default. Cleveland-based National City's bonds have plummeted as much as 17 cents on the dollar since June and yield more than 10 percentage points above Treasuries, similar to Ford Motor Co. debt. KeyCorp, Comerica Inc. and Fifth Third Bancorp have also tumbled, falling as much as 14 cents.
The declines underscore growing speculation among investors that the more than $500 billion of credit losses and asset writedowns sparked by the collapse of the housing market are nowhere near ending, and there is little Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke or Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson can do.
``It's like catching a falling knife and I'm not real interested in that,'' said Eric Johnson, president of Carmel, Indiana-based 40/86 Advisors Inc., which manages $25 billion in fixed-income assets. Until yields on corporate credit and mortgages stabilize, ``it's still going to be too early to buy.'' .........
U.S. home builders sharply reduced the number of new homes starting construction in July and dropped the number of new single-family permits to the lowest level in 26 years, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said the producer price index jumped 1.2% in July, while core wholesale inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) rose 0.7%, far above expectations.
Crude-oil futures climbed nearly 3% Tuesday, set to recover from a three-session price drop of more than 2%, with traders relieved that a tropical storm likely had little impact on energy output in the Gulf of Mexico, but concerned about expectations for declines in U.S. petroleum supplies. Weakness in the U.S. dollar also helped fuel oil's rally, according to one analyst.
Crude for September delivery rose $3.08, or 2.7%, to $115.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, recovering from a low of $112. The contract traded at $115.60, up $2.73 in electronic trading on Globex ......
Large U.S. Banks May Fail Amid Recession, Rogoff Says
"For the coming days - months ahead some of the OhDiBi Gang may need to stockpile valium."
Credit market turmoil has driven the U.S. into a recession and may topple some of the nation's biggest banks, said Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
``The worst is yet to come in the U.S.,'' Rogoff, a Harvard University professor of economics, said in an interview in Singapore today.
Lehman May Report $4 Billion Writedown, JPMorgan Says
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may write down about $4 billion in credit-related investments and other assets when it reports fiscal third-quarter earnings, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts said.
``The credit environment continues to be difficult,'' New York-based analysts.....
Nickel Rises in London as Xstrata Suspends Falcondo Operations
Nickel rose for the first time in four sessions in London after Xstrata Plc, the world's fourth- largest producer of the metal, suspended production at its Falcondo operations in the Dominican Republic. Lead also gained.
The Falcondo halt may last four months, Zug, Switzerland- based Xstrata said today in a statement, citing rising production costs and lower metal prices. Falcondo has an annual capacity of 29,000 metric tons of nickel contained in ferronickel, or about 2 percent of world output estimated at 1.45 million tons last year by UBS AG.
Newcrest Mining has outlined plans to increase its annual production by nearly 1 million ounces within five years after adding another 15 million ounces to its reserve inventory.
Australia's largest goldminer yesterday reported annual underlying earnings of $493.9 million - not including accounting adjustments from a hedging restructure - up from $191.2 million the previous year.
Its operational cashflow of $1 billion exceeded expectations, as did its decision to double its final dividend to 10c a share unfranked.
Newcrest expects its production to increase over the next five years as it expands its Cadia Valley operations and adds production from its recently acquired interest in projects in Papua New Guinea.
It also hopes to expand its Gosowong operation in Indonesia following recent exploration success. It is aiming to produce more than 2.3 million ounces this year.
Newcrest yesterday updated its reserve statement, increasing the resource at its Marsden copper-gold project in NSW to 1.1 million ounces of gold and 640,000 tonnes of copper.
Newcrest's chief executive, Ian Smith, said the project appeared capable of supporting annual production of about 140,000 ounces of gold and 80,000 tonnes of copper for seven to eight years.
"We'll continue to drill that out," he said, but noted the ...
Crude Oil Futures Pare Gains After Report of Inventory Gain
Crude oil futures pared gains after a government report showed a bigger-than-forecast rise in U.S. inventories.
Inventories of crude oil gained 9.39 million barrels to 305.9 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Department said. Supplies were forecast to rise 1 million barrels.
MARKET watchers fear Territory mining exploration may be impaled by falling metals prices as the credit crunch dries up access to funds.
Financial analyst Daryl Guppy said prices had been in a "bubble'' and the inevitable correction would hurt the small explorers.
"The access to credit for exploration has dried up from the credit crunch and the fall in metals prices makes exploration less attractive,'' Mr Guppy said.
We'll start the day off with a fine piece of "burnt" toast. It's a fine piece of news but comes as no surprise.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.7% in July, pointing to "slow growth the rest of the year, and possibly an economy grinding to a halt," the Conference Board reported Thursday.
"If there's a second-half recovery, it'll be the second half of 2009," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research organization.
Five of the 10 indicators declined in July, led by building permits and stock prices. In the past six months, the leading index has fallen at a 1.8% annual rate, with seven of the 10 indicators falling over that period.
For those that follow the Oil Market might find this article " Goldman Sachs Again Tries to Prop Up Oil Prices" of interest:
Today Goldman Sachs announced that oil prices would rise to $149.00 a barrel before the end of the year. The price is hovering around $112.00. Why is Goldman trying to push oil prices higher? Does it have anything to do with the fact Goldman is an equity owner in the oil futures market, is the stock broker for the ICE futures market, manages institutional funds with substantial oil investments, participates in energy swaps to help manipulate the oil prices, and has consistently used its position and analysts to influence the oil market?
Ever since the purchase of the London Oil Futures Market by ICE, the public offering of ICE stock managed by Goldman and the huge increase in institutional investor involvement in the oil futures market Goldman has been projecting major increases in oil prices. Goldman research activity seems to be driven more on profit potential than objective oil market analysis.
The following excerpts from several stories on Goldman over the past 9 months shows the incredible leadership position Goldman took in pushing the rapid rise in the crude oil price. Now that the price has dropped about $35 Goldman today made another push to drive prices back up. Do you think there is any connection between the fact a number of financial analysts downgraded Goldman this week to a sell status rather than a buy status, thus undercutting its financial value?
One might think the actions by Goldman are so reckless, such blatant conflicts of interest, and clearly concerted efforts to manipulate the market without disclosing the company ownership position in the market that it seems Goldman's might be in serious financial trouble. Do not be surprised if sub prime mortgage losses combined with reckless credit risks and mismanagement of the oil investments doesn't result in the collapse of Goldman Sachs in the imminent future. If oil prices continue to go down the Goldman organization may very well go down with it.
CFTC admits speculators hold 81% of Nymex oil contracts
From : FINANCIAL NEWS
The US derivatives regulator has revealed that speculators control more than four-fifths of oil contracts on the nation's main commodity futures exchange, far more than was previously thought, after repeatedly playing down the effect of speculation on soaring oil prices.
An investigation of the oil futures commodity market found that a few big players at one point controlled over 80% of the oil futures market.
The biggest single piece of information verifying the general trend of speculation in oil futures and how it impacted prices was uncovered, in a superb piece of investigative reporting, by David Cho of the Wsshington Post. It involved Vitol, a Swiss company.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the oil futures regulators, responded to pressure exerted by Congressional hearings on speculation by starting the investigation. In it, they looked into Vitol, a company they thought had been buying oil to supply other oil-consuming companies.
The investigation revealed Vitol was buying oil futures contracts almost entirely as paper investments. Acting as a “bettor” in a market designed for oil “consumers” is not illegal but it skews the market, creating exactly the kind of volatility the market was created to dampen for users of economy-impacting commodities like oil.
Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.): "…legitimate businesses that hedge and take physical delivery of oil are being trampled by the speculators who are in the market purely to make profit."
From David Cho's Washington Post reporting: On June 6, Vitol controlled 57.7 million barrels of oil (3 times the U.S. daily consumption), at an estimated cost of ~$1 billion. Oil prices jumped $11/barrel that day. The math: A $634,700,000 profit for the day. 63% return. One day. Nice work if you can get it.
° Oil down about $6 wiping out Thursday price rises ° Fears tensions with Russia will further disrupt crude supplies limit the fall ° Russia angered by U.S. missile deal with Poland
Oil prices plunged more than $6 a barrel Friday, erasing gains from the previous day's big rally after the dollar strengthened and Russian troops began a long-awaited pullback in Georgia. Oil prices have shrunk from July's record highs.
Oil prices have shrunk from July's record highs.
A day after surging nearly $6 a barrel, crude reversed course and wiped out those gains as the U.S. dollar rose on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that he would "act as necessary" to control inflation.
* British economy ground to a halt between April and June * Slowdown ends nearly 16 years of continuous growth * Economic performance was below the modest 0.2 percent growth expected
LONDON (AP) -- The British economy ground to a halt between April and June, ending nearly 16 years of continuous growth. Britain's construction industry is struggling in the midst of the worst housing crash in 30 years.
Britain's construction industry is struggling in the midst of the worst housing crash in 30 years.
The government reported Friday that the economic performance is below the modest 0.2 percent growth that the Office for National Statistics had predicted.
It ends a run of 63 consecutive quarters of growth since the April to June period of 1992, when Britain's gross domestic product shrank.
In the midst of the worst housing crash for 30 years, Britain's construction industry was hit the hardest, the national statistics office said, with construction output falling 1.1 percent.
Meanwhile, manufacturing output fell by 0.8 percent
Columbian Bank and Trust of Kansas Shut by Regulators
Columbian Bank and Trust Co. of Topeka, Kansas, was closed by federal and state regulators today, the ninth U.S. bank to collapse this year amid bad real-estate loans and writedowns stemming from a drop in home prices.
The bank, with $752 million in assets and $622 million in total deposits, was shuttered by the Kansas state bank commissioner's office and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the FDIC said today in a statement.
Rudy : Hadn't seen that one yet as it was in mailbox. However have been reading essentially same message since January with estimates from 50 to 300 bank failures in the coming months - year or two. Now you might say " oh well that is the USA's problem. There is an even far grander problem that will affect financial institutions / major investors and ultimately all investors.
That is the Fan / Fred mess. From article :
" Both Asian markets and Wall Street were unnerved by suggestions over the prospects for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
While Japanese banks have remained relatively under-exposed to sub-prime mortgage products, many fear that they would be heavily exposed to a nationalisation of Fannie and Freddie. The large Japanese financial houses hold around Y9.6 trillion (£47 billion) in bonds and mortgage-backed paper issued by housing finance groups in the US. "
Jim Rogers Says Oil Price Rise to Continue for Decade
Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly forecast the oil price would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said he expects oil to continue to increase over the next decade. `Over the course of time, it's a bull market,'' the chairman of Rogers Holdings said today after an investor conference in Kuala Lumpur. While the oil price could fall to $75 or rise to $175, the market will continue to increase over the next 10 years, he said.
How are Wave Analysis, Dow Theory and Fibonacci Related?
By Editorial Staff Fri, 22 Aug 2008 16:00:00 ET
To begin to understand the Elliott Wave Principle, it's a good idea to get to know how R. N. Elliott discovered it. In this question-and-answer excerpt, Bob Prechter, who is now the leading proponent of wave analysis, explains how Elliott made his discovery and how he was influenced by Dow Theory and the Fibonacci sequence.
* * * * * Excerpted from Prechter's Perspective, 2004
Q: What was R. N. Elliott looking for in the stock market data in the late 1930s? Did he have a model or theory about price behavior?
Bob Prechter: Elliott had no basic premises, just a mind that was open to the idea that the market might be patterned, which he may have adopted from the then relatively new Dow Theory, which was a set of very few and far more general observations about market behavior. Though the Dow Theorists formed only very rough concepts, they broke ground, tremendous ground, in merely coming up with their observations that market behavior was non-random and tied to investor psychology. That was probably the germ of the idea that kicked off Elliott's research.
Q: What was his procedure?
Bob Prechter: He did what every good researcher must do. First, he recorded the data that reality provided. He looked at the movements on chart paper and wondered, "Can I find forms that occur over and over again?" His answer was, "Yes." He found that they occurred on hourly moves, daily moves, weekly, yearly. He even plotted moves that were decades long and noticed that they were following the same form. Likewise, the specific market did not matter. It could be the stock market, the gold price, interest rates or any other market. Then he organized the data, which was his talent. He began recognizing recurrences in the data, so it became clear that there were indeed repetitive patterns, which he ultimately organized into concepts. Learn more about trading the Elliott Waves from Bob Prechter himself. One of the best qualities of a good teacher is that they make learning fun and easy. Once you've watched this DVD, you will be saying that about Bob Prechter, who over the course of two hours tells you most of what he knows about the Elliott Wave Principle – and does it without a moment of boredom. Read more about Trading with Elliott Waves here.
Q: What exactly is Dow Theory and how does it relate to the Wave Principle?
Bob Prechter: The Dow Theory was developed by Charles Dow in the late 1800s. One of the tenets of Dow Theory is that, in general, a primary bull market runs in three upward phrases. In the initial phase, there is a lot of disbelief, and the markets are at very depressed levels. The middle phase is a kind of recognition phase when people begin to realize that the fundamentals are improving, and the markets are rising in harmony with them. The final stage is when the euphoria and the gambling come in. Elliott discovered that this basic formula of three steps up, separated by two intervening corrections, making five waves, was applicable not just to a primary bull market but to any degree of advance. He then observed that corrections take a different path: a three-wave shape or variation thereof. Then he observed that these cycles were not independent of each other but part of the market's larger structure, which in turn developed according to these principles.
Q: It is through Charles Collins that we know about the genesis of the theory. He more or less sponsored Elliott's introduction to Wall Street and helped him think through various aspects of becoming professional. In fact, he was the ghostwriter of a good deal of Elliott's first important book, The Wave Principle, which came out in 1938. Did Collins make any contribution to the theory itself?
Bob Prechter: Yes. The catalyst for tying the Wave Principle to grander natural forces was Collins's discovery that the number of waves in Elliott's idealized pattern reflected the Fibonacci sequence. Collins wrote Elliott during the development of the theory and said in essence, "You ought to read this book by Jay Hambidge on Fibonacci ratios and spirals, because I noticed that when you count the waves through lower and lower degrees of trend, you find the Fibonacci sequence." That sent Elliott off on the track to his grand conclusion. It is comforting to know that he did not start with the Fibonacci sequence or a theory based on it and then force nature to it. Nature showed its law, and these two men observed it.
Q: Is Fibonacci really that crucial to the theory?
Bob Prechter: It is not crucial to the what, but it is crucial to the why. First, Elliott observed the Wave Principle operate. Then he took the next step and asked, "Why does it exist?" He concluded that there must b some progression that human beings go through as they move overall from a state of deep pessimism to extreme optimism and back again, because they continue to trace out these patterns. His eventual conclusion was that it was a natural law of human behavior, that human beings were part of the natural world, and just like trees and wolves and lemmings and anything else you can name, they have certain ways of acting. It shows up in the charts vividly, making it clear that mass psychology is structured. The unifying conclusion, that mankind's progress follows a law of nature exhibited by countless forms of life, is a profound and reasonable explanation that fits the facts.
A former Bank of England official on Saturday sharply criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's handling of the credit crunch, saying Mr. Bernanke has been too cozy with Wall Street at the expense of economic stability.
"Throughout the 12 months of the crisis, it is difficult to avoid the impression that the Fed is too close to the financial markets and leading financial institutions, and too responsive to their special pleadings, to make the right decisions for the economy as a whole," Willem Buiter, a former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, wrote in a paper for the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole conference.
Oil and gas traveling through Georgia was supposed to free Europe from Russia. Not anymore.
Russia's invasion of Georgia threatened a major transit corridor for oil and gas from the Caspian Sea, raising questions about Western energy security. Major pipelines through Georgia supply Europe with more than 1 million barrels of oil per day and 26 percent of the continent's natural gas. At the height of the fighting, more than 50 Russian missiles targeted the most important oil pipeline, called BTC because it runs from the Azerbaijani port of Baku, near Tblisi, the Georgian capital, to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, Turkey. Other missiles placed within 100 meters of one of BTC's pressurized vents could have caused a major explosion.
Completed only three years ago, BTC is the culmination of a Western campaign to free Europe from energy dependence on Russia; now the war has Europe wondering ......
Chinalco Gets Australia's Approval to Raise Rio Stake
""' Does the Australian Government support the takeover of free world resources and companies by foreign government controlled companies? Sure looks that way."""
From Bloomberg:
Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco, got Australian approval to raise to 11 percent its stake in Rio Tinto Group, the target of a hostile $143 billion takeover by rival miner BHP Billiton Ltd.....
The bid by China's biggest aluminum producer may make it more difficult for Melbourne-based BHP to succeed in its all- stock takeover offer for Rio,...
Home Sales Probably Held Near Decade Low: U.S. Economy Preview
From Bloomberg:
Home sales in the U.S. probably teetered near a 10-year low, property values dropped and consumer spending cooled, signaling the economy has taken another turn for the worse, reports this week are projected to show.
A total of 5.435 million new and existing homes were purchased in July at an annual pace, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg News. June's 5.39 million rate was the weakest since at least 1999. Spending probably rose 0.3 percent in July, half the prior month's gain.
The real-estate recession will persist into next year as stricter lending rules and higher borrowing costs shackle demand. At the same time, equity is disappearing as home prices fall, and wages aren't keeping up with inflation, depriving Americans of the means to maintain spending, the biggest part of the economy.
``The economy is going down a shaky path,'' said Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAGlobal Inc. in New York. ``We're not going to see a rebound in housing anytime soon. Consumers are living hand to mouth, and the outlook for spending is very weak.''
Purchases of new houses dropped 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 525,000, according to the median estimate of economists polled ahead of a Commerce Department report on Aug. 26. March's 513,000 pace was the lowest since 1991.
Resales of existing homes, compiled from closings and reflecting contracts signed weeks or months earlier, will be reported by the National Association of Realtors tomorrow. Purchases gained 1 percent to a 4.91 million annual rate, staying near June's 10-year low, the survey median showed.
Central Bankers See More Credit Losses, Fischer Says
The world's top central-banking officials and scholars believe the yearlong credit crisis has yet to run its course, with continued turmoil likely in banking and housing, Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said.
``It was clear from what was said that most people here don't believe the financial crisis is necessarily over or close to being over,'' Fischer said today......
Is world shipping heading for recession? It is too early to predict anything firmly at this moment but the indications appear ominous. And traditionally, as everyone knows, shipping has been the leading indicator.
On August 15, Bloomberg reported that Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark for shipping freight, fell for 23 consecutive sessions through August 12, the worst decline since the third quarter of 2005.
Early this month, Goldman Sachs advised investors to sell bulk carrier stocks ahead of any major correction as it forecast that the BDI would fall 40 per cent in 2009 and a further 47 per cent year-on in 2010, citing an oversupply of capacity in coming years.
The fear may not be totally unfounded. Recently, the share prices of leading South Korean shipbuilders tumbled amid a spate of newbuilding cancellations and reports of some yards attempting to renegotiate price and delivery dates for new buildings. ......
Kate : Big play will be the hurricane and the Gulf oil facilities. And now some bad / good news from Roo Land.
Australian Mortgage Bonds Offer World's Best Value, Pimco Says Pimco
Australia's mortgage-backed bonds are one of the most attractive buys ``on the planet,'' according to Rob Mead, head of Asia-Pacific credit at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Sydney.
Mead, who manages the equivalent of $17 billion, said he is buying top AAA rated U.S. dollar- and euro-denominated bonds backed by Australian home loans. The debt is being sold at fire- sale prices by holders forced to close their businesses amid the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market, he said. ........
And in CANADA : "Housing slump hits BMO's bottom line"
Hit by losses on U.S. home loans and deteriorating credit markets, Bank of Montreal posted steeply lower third-quarter earnings Tuesday, pushing the shares lower and triggering at least one analyst downgrade.
"The largest surprise came from the significantly higher than anticipated level of provisions related largely to impairments in the bank's corporate U.S. real estate portfolio," said Dundee Securities analyst John Aiken, who reduced his rating on the shares from "Neutral" to "Sell."....
Paddy It will be interesting to see the effect of Gustav on the oil price, having seen the lack of speculation associated with the Russia-Georgia mess I wonder if oil will really take off this time?
Gold looked like it was on playing on a trampoline last night. I wonder if that is a result of the oil price or a pack of buyers at the +/- $800 level.
Kate : If all goes well with Gustav the price of oil will certainly rise. It will probably rise to $122 level again . Has been up to $117.08 in this session .
Gold action has even taken some of the Pro's by surprise.
"Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in London on demand for precious metals as a haven from housing-related financial losses and an alternative investment to the declining dollar."
However,in my opinion, Gustav is the play of the day / week. Oil has been up to $119.63 and is sitting at $118.71 as I write.
I wonder what will happen to price of BHP if Neptune is in the path of a major hurricane? Will high price of oil offset loss of production from Gulf? Time will tell.
Grupo Mexico Investors Hit in Texas Courts by Asarco Bankruptcy
Grupo Mexico SAB may be forced to pay $8.25 billion, or $1.03 a share, and give up U.S. copper producer Asarco LLC because of fights between the companies in two federal courts in Texas.
Mexico's biggest mining company is accused in a lawsuit of illegally stripping Asarco of its most valuable asset before it put the unit into bankruptcy in 2005. A verdict may come next month. Another judge this fall will weigh competing reorganization plans and decide whether the Mexican company will keep control of the Tucson-based subsidiary.
``It would be a very bad situation -- the worst, worst scenario'' for the parent company to lose in both courts, said analyst Rodrigo Heredia of IXE Grupo Financiero in Mexico City, who recommends buying shares.
Asarco's independent court-appointed directors, who now control the company, are seeking $8.25 billion in actual damages in Brownsville, almost five times Grupo Mexico's 2007 net income. They also want $8.25 billion in punitive damages. Regaining the miner would let the parent end the suit.
Losing control of Asarco in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Corpus Christi, Texas, would expose the Mexico City-based company to the risk of damages from the directors' lawsuit.
The company that owns the Kennecott operations in Utah, posted record first-half profit Tuesday, bolstering its effort to fend off a hostile takeover by BHP Billiton. Rio Tinto said the results had been lifted by booming demand for iron ore from steel makers in Asia and by the acquisition of the Canadian company Alcan for $38 billion in October. Net income more than doubled in the period to $6.9 billion from $3.3 billion a year earlier. Revenue rose to $27.2 billion from $12.1 billion. Rio Tinto also raised its interim dividend by 31 percent to 68 cents. The results Tuesday showed Rio Tinto's revenue from aluminum operations soared to $12.6 billion from $1.8 billion. The company did not break out the contribution of the Alcan deal to profit, but the chief executive, Thomas Albanese, said in a telephone interview that the acquisition had been ''accretive to profit in the first half'' and that ''we haven't seen the full benefits of the acquisition yet.'' Rio Tinto's underlying earnings, which exclude interest and taxes, rose to $5.5 billion in the first half from $3.53 billion in the period a year earlier. Analysts polled by Reuters Estimates had, on average, expected underlying earnings of $5.1 billion. Shares of Rio Tinto, which have risen more than 54 percent in the last year, were down 0.56 percent, to 51.50 pounds, or about $95.80, in London. The declines were part of a broad fall in mining stocks as commodity prices slipped. Baoshan Iron and Steel, the largest Chinese steel maker, said it would cut prices for some steel products on expectations that demand from automakers and appliance makers would slow. Resource company investors are concerned that the slowdown in the global economy will weigh on raw materials prices.
Pimco Seeks as Much as $5 Billion for Distressed Debt
Pacific Investment Management Co., the biggest manager of bond funds, is seeking as much as $5 billion to buy mortgage-backed debt that plunged in value after the subprime market collapsed, according to two investors with knowledge of the matter.
Dean : I will reply to your comment re terrorists here rather than possibly incur the wrath of the OhDiBe gang. How you treat a terrorist depends on where you classify / allocate them . If you classify them as "mad dogs" then by all means you treat them as mad dogs and you exterminate them in any way that you can.
Yes it is sad if an innocent civilian gets killed while carry out said tasks.
While on the subject I would classify drug dealers the same and give them similar treatment. Drug dealers are worse as they destroy lives for monetary gain whereas terrorists usually have some misguided delusion that they are fighting for the greater cause.
I'll end with what a friend told me once . He was in charge of a prison facility. He told the prisoners, if they had any thoughts of escaping, that on his watch " the second shot would be the warning shot. No one tried to escape because they knew he meant it. That was before the prison were invaded by social workers and other do-gooders and really screwed up the system.
Gustav forces oil industry to speed up evacuations
Oil companies and drilling contractors on Thursday accelerated the evacuation of thousands of workers and secured offshore rigs and other equipment in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Gustav churned toward the United States.
With top sustained winds just below hurricane strength, Gustav was projected to become a major Category 3 hurricane after it passes between Cuba and Mexico and enters the warm, deep Gulf waters. Some models showed Gustav taking a path toward Louisiana and other Gulf states devastated by hurricanes Katrina and Rita three years ago.
Real consumer spending fell 0.4% in July, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. This is the biggest drop since June 2004.
Nominal spending rose 0.2%.
Personal income fell 0.7% in July, the biggest drop since August 2005.
Real disposable incomes fell 1.7% in July. This is the second straight large monthly drop in the wake of the government stimulus payments.
Inflation surged in the month. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% in July compared with June and is up 2.4% in the past year. This is the largest gain since September 2006.
Wall Street economists had expected a 0.4% decline in incomes, a 0.2% gain in nominal spending and a 0.3% rise in the core
Georgia regulators close Integrity Bank, 10th bank to fail
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Integrity Bank of Alpharetta, Ga., with $1.1 billion in assets and $974 million in deposits, was closed Friday by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was named receiver.
This marks the 10th U.S. bank failure so far this year. All deposit accounts have been transferred to Regions Bank of Birmingham, Ala. and depositors of Integrity Bank will automatically become depositors of Regions Bank for the full amount of their deposits.
Regions Bank will pay a total premium of 1.012% for the failed bank's deposits and will purchase about $34.4 million of Integrity Bank's assets.
Some analysts say only manipulation is government's attempt to take down oil
"Congress is already investigating allegations of manipulation in the oil market, and it seems likely that it is only a matter of time before a similar investigation will be required in the precious metal markets," said Mark O'Byrne, executive director at Gold and Silver Investment.
Three unidentified U.S. banks held 86,398 short positions, or bets that gold prices will fall, in the COMEX gold market as of Aug. 5 -- 10 times more short positions than a month earlier, a government report showed................
Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Gustav threatens to hurt U.S. oil and natural-gas production and refining more severely than hurricanes Katrina and Rita did three years ago.
Gustav, downgraded to a Category 3 storm by the National Hurricane Center in Miami this morning, may strengthen to Category 4 later today and will make landfall as a ``major'' hurricane............
.......Most U.S. financial markets are closed until Sept. 2 for the Labor Day holiday. Nymex said in an Aug. 29 statement that electronic trading will begin at 2:30 p.m. New York time today with trades dated Sept. 2. ....
captain: Take it easy . I was just showing that all Caps is not something new or , as they say, "shouting". There are people that just simply will not change . when Rio was taking over Alcan I had one on the Topix Mining Forum . His "handle" was " CONCERNED". Strange case - according to him he still holds 3000 delisted shares of the former Alcan and will never sell to those "foreign devils".
Re Storms: Hanna headed up sub-parallel to US coast. Other, at this time, potential tropical "events" are, in my opinion, too far to the north to create ant significant disturbance in the Gulf. However season is far from over and they are calling for 14 - 18 storms.
Re All Capital Posts: You know which ones are going to be that way and no one is forcing you to read them. You should know by now that Stoian with his cryptic / far out posts will never change .
Latest on GUSTAV :
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
or was it
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
or
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
or GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
I'm Sorry, but I do get confused with Capitals
I suppose it is just one of those Macho things some writers have to use as compensation for a lack elsewhere?
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
To the so called captain of the HMASS SWINE [ alias bear hunter - like no bears in the sea]
You really are a few bricks short of a load or you are just a complete A whole or just a goddamn slow learner . Reports from NHC come in all capitals. Like I said nobody has put a gun to your head and forced you to read the posts.
IC is not compatible with my non-windows system.So you can take your slurs/insults and put them where the sun don't shine.
Attentamente - yours not a member of IC only the Forum
Subprime-Mortgage Loss Indexes May Be Faulty, BIS Report Says
Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Credit-default indexes used by banks to calculate subprime writedowns are probably poor indicators of future prices because they don't capture all debt instruments, the Bank for International Settlements said.
The Markit ABX.HE indexes ``seem to have been widely used'' by banks to hedge and trade as well as value subprime mortgage- backed securities, BIS researchers Ingo Fender and Peter Hordahl wrote in a quarterly report published today. Such credit-default swap indexes only track a fraction of MBS instruments, they said.
``Observed ABX prices are unlikely to be good predictors of future default-related cash flow shortfalls on outstanding subprime MBS, especially for tranches at the higher end of the capital structure,'' the researchers wrote.
Securities backed by home loans to borrowers with poor credit histories have plunged, depleting financial firms of capital and upsetting global credit markets. The world's largest banks and securities firms have reported more than $512 billion of asset writedowns and credit losses since the start of 2007.
Credit-default swaps offer protection if the securities aren't repaid as expected, in return for regular insurance-like premiums.
The Basel, Switzerland-based BIS acts as a central bank for the world's monetary authorities.
Oil Falls as Companies Prepare to Resume Output After Hurricane
Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to a five-month low below $106 as oil companies prepared to resume production from rigs closed by Hurricane Gustav.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SA and ConocoPhillips said they were inspecting offshore U.S. Gulf platforms today. Oil, down more than $40 from its July record, dropped as Gustav spared U.S. Gulf states the destruction caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. .........
Australian Banks to Pass on Full Interest-Rate Cut
Australia's four biggest banks will cut interest rates for variable home loans after the central bank reduced borrowing costs, giving homeowners relief in a nation where housing affordability is at a 22-year low.
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., National Australia Bank Ltd., Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac Banking Corp. will pass on the Reserve Bank of Australia's full 25 basis point interest-rate cut to customers, they said.
On Friday the Chinese stock markets had their second up day in a row (a rare occurrence this year), with the SSE Composite trading up 2.0%. Today, however, the markets reverted to form, and the SSE Composite dropped 2.9% to close at 2327 which is, I think, the lowest point they have reached since February of last year.
What seemed to drive the market down today was a confluence of events suggesting that government fears of an economic slowdown may be reasonable. Today the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released its calculation of August PMI (purchasing managers’ [ three words not allowed by IC system] a seasonally adjusted 48.4, the same as in July, and the second month in a row that it came in at contractionary levels (anything below 50). At the same time CLSA released its own PMI calculations, which also came in below 50 – the first time this has happened since the survey began nearly three years ago. .............
* 4:27 AM Oil futures trigger a $10-move circuit breaker causing overnight trading to halt for five minutes after hitting a low of $105.46. It's the first time it's been triggered since the 1991 Gulf War
Rio Tinto signs further joint venture agreements with CODELCO for copper exploration in Chile
Rio Tinto has signed two exploration joint venture agreements with CODELCO’s 100% owned subsidiary, CCM Los Andes, in Chile. These agreements follow the first exploration joint venture agreement signed between Rio Tinto and CODELCO in January 2008. CODELCO is the world’s largest copper producer.
The new properties to be explored are the Esteli and Paloma prospects in northern Chile. The Esteli property adjoins the Exploradora property, which was subject to the first joint venture agreement between Rio Tinto and CODELCO, while the Paloma property is located close to the copper mines at Spence and El Tesoro. An exploration drilling programme is currently underway at Exploradora and will be followed by drilling at Paloma this year.
Rio Tinto has the option to earn a 55 per cent interest in each prospect through stand alone exploration investments of US$20 million. The agreements include provisions to increase Rio Tinto’s ownership to 60 per cent.
“We are very pleased to enter into these additional agreements which strengthen Rio Tinto’s relationship with CODELCO and provide access to some of the most prospective copper tenement in the world,” said Bret Clayton, chief executive of Rio Tinto Copper.
Rio Tinto has been exploring in Chile since 1989 and has several additional copper exploration properties under title which are scheduled for drill-testing in 2008.
Oil prices are unlikely to drop below $100 a barrel because OPEC will cut production to support the price, billionaire hedge-fund manager Boone Pickens told CNBC today.
"OPEC likes it up here," Pickens said in a televised interview from the New York Mercantile Exchange. "I think they'll support it and cut production."
The 13 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meet Sept. 9 in Vienna to review production targets.
Oil futures dropped to a five-month low on the Nymex as energy companies prepared to resume output at platforms in the Gulf of Mexico closed by Hurricane Gustav. Crude oil for October delivery fell $6.42, or 5.6 percent, to $109.04 a barrel at 1:09 p.m. Futures are down 26 percent from July's record $147.27.
Today's move "was a little heavier than I thought, but I figured it would go down," Pickens said. "It's the attitude of the market, and a little bit of news, bad or good, just takes us down further."
Shares of global mining giant Rio Tinto PLC fell more than 10 percent Tuesday after European Union regulators put a hold on their investigation into its proposed acquisition by BHP Billiton Ltd. pending more information from the two companies.
The European Commission said Tuesday it had "stopped the clock" on the antitrust probe - which had been set to wrap up Nov. 11 - until it receives and evaluates additional information. The commission will set a new deadline once it receives the material.
Rio Tinto's shares fell $39.73, or 10.5 percent, to $339.99 a share and BHP Billiton (nyse: BBL - news - people )'s shares fell $5.76, or 8.2 percent, to $64.75 on the New York Stock Exchange.
BHP Billiton made a hostile, all-equity bid for Rio Tinto in February, then valued at $147.4 billion. At 3.4 of BHP shares for every Rio Tinto share, the value of the deal fluctuates with share prices.
Rio Tinto has opposed the union because it believes the offer undervalues it.
European Commission regulator are investigating the deal because they are worried about higher prices and reduced choice for European customers.
If the acquisition is completed, the newly formed company would overtake Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (nyse: RIO - news - people ), the world's largest iron ore miner.
NEW YORK/MEXICO CITY, Sept 2 (Reuters) - A U.S. judge has ruled that Mexican copper miner Grupo Mexico did not commit malicious fraud in 2003, but did harm creditors, when it transferred a valuable stake in a Peruvian miner from its now-bankrupt U.S. unit, Asarco.
In a complex ruling, the judge said that the directors overseeing the transaction breached their fiduciary duty and knew that some of Asarco's creditors would be harmed as the the company was stripped of one of its most valuable assets.
Stock Market Bears Ready to Strike in September - Mike Swanson
We just had the summer rally. You may have missed it, but the S&P 500 managed to finish the month of August up a whopping 1.1% while the Nasdaq ended with a gain of 1.8%. You might detect some sarcasm here and there is a bit. You see despite the lack of conviction in the market action many people are calling for a new bull market in the financial media and on TV.
This week's Barrons has a story titled The Reluctant Bulls. It quotes Francois Trahan as saying that the "the US is the best stock market to be in." He claims that oil is going into a bear market, wage growth is shrinking and therefore inflation should fade. Combine that with interest rate cuts made by the Fed earlier this year that should begin to kick in to the economy and you have a recipe for "reviving domestic economic prospects," he says.
Trahan ignores that fact that we are not in a normal economic contraction, but a full blown credit crisis and a confirmed bear market. But he's not alone.
Others expect to see a stock market explosion upwards after the election on the assumption that the election will excite people and cause them to throw money at the stock market no matter who wins.
I see clear signs though that the bear market rally that began in July is reaching its end and that means the next downturn in the market is ahead of us.
Chinese steel mills have resisted Brazilian miner Vale`s attempts to increase term iron ore prices for weeks, sources said, suggesting they will not easily agree to Vale`s demand for a 20% hike. Steel industry sources in China confirmed that Vale had emailed Chinese customers a day ago to announce it would charge 20% more for iron ore from September 1, an exceptional mid-cycle increase in prices that are normally agreed on a full 12-month basis. That would bring the increase in Brazilian ore in line with the bigger rise that Australian miners won in July,
Steel mills to cut production, foretelling cyclic adjustment
Chinese experts call on steel industry to undertake a cyclic adjustment as some steel mills have started to scale down production due to continuous sliding in steel prices.
At the 3rd China Steel Raw Materials & Fuels Summit held in this coastal city of Fujian Province, East China, quiet a few steel mills said they have started to cut production.
Currently, domestic steel price has fallen for seven consecutive weeks. Midsize and small steel mills that use spot ore for production are forced to shut down furnaces.
A steel mill in Tangshan with an annual output of three million tons stopped the operation of two furnaces.......
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department is expected to announce as early as this weekend a plan to bail out and re-capitalize collapsing home mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in one of the biggest government rescues in U.S. history. Such a plan would end a long downward spiral for the firms, which the government created to help expand home ownership and provide a secondary market for home loans. Rep. Barney Frank (D.-Mass.) confirmed in a statement Saturday that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is set to put the federal government in control of the two troubled mortgage owners.
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