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     snowman
Member
Username: snowman
Post Number: 1
Registered: 09-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 02:42 am: |  
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Notwithstanding the long-term bear trend does this not look like a short-term bull ascending broadening wedge?
And does this not look like a short-term Ranging Market?
Please Forgive me for my ignorance.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 451
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 01:56 pm: |
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Careful there Snowy. Optimism is banned around here. With any luck Paddy won't notice.
Cheers
Sway.
PS> I think another retest of 8200ish will make it interesting.
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This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1215
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 02:36 pm: |
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Hi Snowman
snowman wrote on Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 03:42 am:short-term bull ascending broadening wedge
Welcome, for venturing over here from that other shares forum....
Have been trying to upload stuff in the DOW thread (Broardband hastles & forgot about BITMap file size for hours!) but your point about consolidation is true - not sure how long for? Rudy suggests you can torture a data set to say whatever you want it too (as can you with images & graphics).
sway wrote on Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 02:56 pm:Optimism is banned around here
Should only be tolerated when it is justified Sway... Even you are suggesting another test of around ~8,000 ?
Happy trading
Happy trading DYOR
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 453
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 03:29 pm: |
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tryhay wrote on Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 03:36 pm:sway wrote on Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 02:56 pm:
Optimism is banned around here
Should only be tolerated when it is justified Sway... Even you are suggesting another test of around ~8,000 ?
Maybe so tryhay. A retest of 8400 on a weekly close for the 3rd time might be considered reasonable support?
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 2083
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 04:05 pm: |
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Hi Sway and Tryhay,
I hadn't noticed your two posts but I have just posted something on Paddy's Way of the DOW thread which is possibly relevant regarding the 8400 and 8000 levels.
"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"
- Andrew Lo
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1216
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 05:50 pm: |
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Hi Sway
sway wrote on Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 04:29 pm:A retest of 8400 on a weekly close for the 3rd time might be considered reasonable support?
I can not see the current consolidation as any more than a bear flag (of sorts) and as Colin's Latest Trading Diary states "The broad consolidation between 8000 and 9800 is likely to resolve in a downward direction, with initial support at the 2003 low of 7500. Be wary of any sharp sucker rally: they are likely to fail just as quickly"
XJO Chart for them that are interested:
If you can make money on the support and resistance then good luck to you... Both the XAO & XJO look to be testing support and don't have much head room IMO
Wonder what the reaction to the G20 meeting will be?
Happy trading DYOR
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 454
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 11:36 pm: |
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Yes, I read Colin's TD.
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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snowman
Member
Username: snowman
Post Number: 1
Registered: 09-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 16, 2008 - 01:48 am: |
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Thanks for the welcome tryhay. Actually I'm not optimistic for the long-term. Most indicators are trending down. And in fact I keep trying t go short, but keep getting shut out without a trend. To me ranging markets separate the men from the boys as to who can make a profit.
snowman
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1220
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 20, 2008 - 07:37 am: |
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Hi snowman
snowman wrote on Sunday, November 16, 2008 - 02:48 am:Actually I'm not optimistic for the long-term
Yes, we do look to be still trending down ~ Colin's comments point to 3000/3100 as possible target & the ministry of silly golf walk/s is heading that way.
Contrary to popular belief (on this particular forum) short is the only way to go ATM in this market IMO ~ particularly if one times it correctly: taking profits and then topping up on the bounce ~ very creamie (agreed not easy, but getting plenty of practice ATM - the school of hard knocks will set you up for "the shorting strategies for clever investors").
I note the VIX is creeping back to its highs (see chart below) which suggests another attempt at capitulation just around the corner. Yes the MACD is only kissing but some time after it crosses I guess it will be time to buy up big.....
On another matter,
sway wrote on Sunday, November 16, 2008 - 12:36 am:Yes, I read Colin's TD.
Sway ~ I guess the point is do you get anything out of them? Before you jump to conclusions, I could very well ignore your post but, FWIW it is a question you need to at least consider IMO
Cheers
Happy trading DYOR
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 1156
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 20, 2008 - 09:50 am: |
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Sway : I never banned 'optimism" . I deal in black and white . Optimists hoping for a "bottom" / rally are not banned. But praying / hoping / whatever won't change the DIRECTION of the rallies . Didn't they tell you were dealing with RRs [ reverse rallies].
Like wasn't that a smashing rally on the Dow today. Looks like you have great one underway on the XJO - jolly good lads . Keep up the good work.
Remember a small piece of reality:
Still a Long Ways to Go
Paddy
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