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     shonegold
Member
Username: shonegold
Post Number: 1
Registered: 10-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 16, 2008 - 05:11 pm: |  
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OK folks, thought I would share this with you...it is a monthly chart of the DOW from 1900 which I will revisit every month or so to watch the market's journey downwards, if in fact it continues downwards, with my support and resistance lines redrawn for you. I see the free market as a natural cycle and what I am seeing is a very healthy retrace to test support and resistance. I want to know when it is safe to get back in...I don't like to guess at this stuff...I like to feel I know what I am doing....and charting gives me a very high degree of confidence.
If this downward trend continues, I feel everything is going to slide in value along with the markets...except the price of T Bonds (not yields...yields will drop I believe)....they and the $USD are likely to rise. Bling (gold,silver, diamonds), commodities, food everything down...down...down.
All this is just my guesstimate so do your own thinking....I will not argue over this position...if you disagree with me...fine, you may well be right....
Apologies for the poor quality chart...my dimensions were within the required size but IC would not accept the image and it needed further size reduction.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3562
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 17, 2008 - 05:12 pm: |
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Ahoy there Stonegold/ Stonehenge!
The problem you face using those antiquated charts in its monthly format is by definition ONLY Monthly charts
You face the problem that most people on Earth /Land and Sea look at their charts more than "Once a Month"
This "Once a Month" idea may work well with Child Bearing activities of mammals but has no place on the Global Exchange of prices between Buyers and Sellers!
I extend a Very Warm Welcome for your effort
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3563
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 17, 2008 - 06:39 pm: |
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PS
I think that the BIGGEST problem you face with the Idea of Support and Resistance is in the FACT of the Age-Old Diminishing aspect of any Long Term/Formulae
Crikey!
Support/Resistance levels always seem to run-out/fail when you most need them the most
Talk About Rotten Luck!
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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sittingduck
Member
Username: sittingduck
Post Number: 58
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 17, 2008 - 08:20 pm: |
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I also doubt the use of such a long term chart (though it's an interesting piece as a study of history goes).
As it's a chart of an index, it's make-up has changed over the time of it's existence. At what point does variation in composition invalidate any concept of support and resistance?
Sure, our own XAO has been dominated by the likes of BHP, CBA etc for so long now, it's probably still a valid indicator going back probably 20 years. But to go back 80 years and still expect to be able to read valid information, seems to be a bit on the optimistic side to me.
Cheers
SittingDuck
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3564
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 17, 2008 - 08:57 pm: |
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What I mean to say
Re Supports and Resistances areas is simply based on the principle of non-filled Buy and Sell orders in the short/medium term
After a certain amount of time these Buy/Sell orders get cancelled
Patience as in All Life simply seems to run out sooner than later
ie: The Support area/Buyers you think maybe ill there in 1932 may not even be alive in 2008
ie: They seem to have simply vanished into thin air over only 75 years
Similarly, The support areas of even 5-10 years ago may not even be alive today
In these cases it almost feels like someone has pulled the rug from under ones feet when desperatly searching for an Old Timers' Support level
Talk about rotten luck!
Salute and Gods' speed
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on November 17, 2008)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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dovetree
Member
Username: dovetree
Post Number: 56
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 18, 2008 - 12:00 pm: |
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Dow 5300 (approx) is the target. It corresponds to a 1.27 fib extension of the last swing high to low and is around the Dow at 6% yield which is the long term historical level when bear markets end.
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shonegold
Member
Username: shonegold
Post Number: 1
Registered: 10-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 18, 2008 - 03:49 am: |
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~Sitting Duck
Quoting Sitting Duck
At what point does variation in composition invalidate any concept of support and resistance?
I don't believe it does...regardless of the time scale.
Charts react to support and resistance lines....and the composition seems to play little to no importance, as you will see similar reactions in individual charts of commodities, bond yields, indices, short term and long term charts, charts containing adjustments for share splits and buy backs....it comes back to a single line and as long as enough folk are playing the same game and watching the same line drawn in the same scale, at the same time with enough money to make a difference, then it is likely to do something predictable.
There is no optimism in my outlook here, I am totally detached from the outcome but open to the potential of the theory.
Cheers
ShoneGold
~Captain Chaza
Quoting the Captain
What I mean to say
Re Supports and Resistances areas is simply based on the principle of non-filled Buy and Sell orders in the short/medium term
The principle you quote as a prevailing influence on the DOW will obviously have some effect on its downward slide or halt. Percentage drops with the accompanying position liquidation will also cut in to create an effect.
It is the line itself with no other contributing factor, I am suggesting, which is going to have a profound psychological effect on the reaction of the participants.
As I said before to the good and worthy Sitting Duck, if enough people are playing the same game, at the same time, watching the same line and waiting for the same signal to enter or leave a position, then I think there will be a profound reaction...regardless of the age or stage of the chart or any outstanding and unfilled orders dating back to 1932!
Provided the line has been drawn true and is the same line the money is watching, we may see something interesting...we also may not.
If the markets do continue to do their most delicious Weinstein stage 4 swan dive, there will be many wondering what will happen in such uncharted waters...
....I say the waters are charted and have been since conception...which may also explain its strength and influence over other world markets....
My indebtedness to you Good Captain for your continued interest, as my replies wait in the cue for processing.
Salute with respect!
ShoneGold
Incredible Charts
now with US Data
- AMEX, NASDAQ and NYSE data
- OTC BB and Pink Sheet stocks
- more than 500 market and sector indices
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shonegold
Member
Username: shonegold
Post Number: 2
Registered: 10-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 17, 2008 - 06:38 pm: |
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Ahoy there Captain!
Agree entirely with you good Sir! Monthly even weekly figures take the edge off any worthy cutlass cutting edge but these antiquated charts also come equiped with daily price movements in bite sized pieces of 20 years...too large to dock alongside IC lined up side by side but a fine reference, almost an astronomical almanac for drawing a truer and sharper advance position on the less defined monthly charts.
Using them as a telescope to see the finer detail at such a distance ensures my line to be truer by reference to the bite size dailies almanac, bringing the line in closer to the true voyage line, which has been used as the true line over the years.
The Double Cross in '87 at the point of 2722.42 gives me confidence I am sailing the true line as defined by the dailies....
Beholden to you for your warm welcome Sir and at your service!
May strong winds be always at your back and a maiden's sweet smile for you at voyage end! Salute!
ShoneGold
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