Profile Help Forum Rules Advanced Help Last 1|3|7 Days Search Forum Tree View

Thread   Start New Thread   Last Poster Posts Pages Last Post Vegemite brand 1  1  04-Jan-06  08:37 am Archive through October 17, 2006 ohkoolnutz 25  1  17-Oct-06  10:59 pm Archive through July 16, 2006 tryhay 25  1  16-Jul-06  09:14 pm Archive through March 11, 2006 maxboost 25  1  11-Mar-06  04:46 pm Archive through November 20, 2005 ken 25  1  20-Nov-05  08:34 pm Archive through August 10, 2005 mosaic1996 52  1  10-Aug-05  08:44 am Archive through February 24, 2005 iwillwin 25  1  24-Feb-05  05:33 pm Archive through December 29, 2004 robbo 25  1  29-Dec-04  07:52 pm Archive through November 12, 2004 fox_terrier 25  1  12-Nov-04  12:23 pm Archive through October 30, 2004 alann 25  1  30-Oct-04  12:08 am Archive through October 24, 2004 perler59 25  1  24-Oct-04  12:32 am Archive through October 20, 2004 rederob 25  1  20-Oct-04  06:36 am

Author Message  tryhay Member Username: tryhay Post Number: 417 Registered: 09-2005 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, December 02, 2006 - 05:02 pm:     Some time since comment on DOW, and the chart has been behaving itself until recently: the index seems to be testing the bottom channel support (as they do). I do not personally like the apparent weakening in both the daily and weekly charts (perhaps that is my problem). Daily chart: Notice the MACD histogram, CCI, RSI, DMI and the TMF. Weekly chart: Notice the MACD & DMI, PS Perhaps a bounce in the US$ will spark the DOW up shortly (Message edited by tryhay on December 02, 2006)  goldbug Member Username: goldbug Post Number: 313 Registered: 02-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, December 02, 2006 - 05:40 pm:     Hi Tryhay, Any rally from now on IMHO would be a good chance to exit longs. The present posture of the Dow is one of defiance and arrogance, in the face of a slowing US economy riddled by mountains of debt. Wage pressures mounting, a weakening $US, trade deficits that would make a goldbug go weak at the knees ..... A fed that doesn't have a clue on whether to raise, pause or cut rates. I could just be a little pessimistic but it would appear the DOW is either going to skyrocket skywards or plummet back to earth. My view supports the plummet back to earth option ..... Regards Goldbug  kate Member Username: kate Post Number: 452 Registered: 04-2005 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, December 04, 2006 - 08:39 am:     Goldbug How do you think this is going to affect our market? Commodities are responsible for our market doing so well, yet the DOW doesn't include one miner. I would have thought the S&P 500 or the FTSE 100 a better indicator of how we will fare. On the other hand the DOW seems to have a psychological impact and we are reminded of the deteriorating condition of the US economy every day. Then, there are the continuing reports of a soft landing because the rest of the world can't afford (literally)to allow the US go belly up. Also, Bernanke still maintains there are inflationary tendencies. To me the evidence is so conflicting I have absolutely no idea what will happen!  chaosinaction Member Username: chaosinaction Post Number: 1 Registered: 12-2006 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, December 04, 2006 - 09:44 am:     Hi, I'm new to this group, a trader and writer, and I'm wondering the same thing. Most of my current holdings are in mining, geared to gold and Uranium, and for some time I've been thinking that, no matter how they rise, if the Dow takes a big fall, everything will be a sell, no matter what the commodities do. I remember in '87, the day the market crashed, gold shot of to over 500 an oz - didn't stop the mining sector plummeting along with the rest. So more and more I find myself more concerned with the Dow than commodities prices. Interested to hear other views.  justice Member Username: justice Post Number: 696 Registered: 01-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, December 04, 2006 - 02:44 pm:     I reckon we have at least another day's trading before the next possible DOW crash scenario can affect the ASX - as there's no economic news in the wind for Monday. I try and keep things simple as poss. Cheers, Amazonian butterfly. ... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)  chaosinaction Member Username: chaosinaction Post Number: 2 Registered: 12-2006 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, December 04, 2006 - 02:46 pm:     Interesting ... what evidence do you have for this view?  justice Member Username: justice Post Number: 697 Registered: 01-2003 Rating:  Votes: 1 Monday, December 04, 2006 - 05:47 pm:     None. It's the butterfly in my stomach. Past experience. Nothing is %100 certain. LONG GBP/USD for the moment. Hang on. Out again. - That was quick. Waiting. waiting, waiting... Without any economic news, the chances of a serious down day on the DOW is negligible. There must usually be a perceived catalyst for a severe move I've found.... perhaps tomorrow's news will bring the stroke. (Message edited by justice on December 04, 2006) ... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)  stoian Member Username: stoian Post Number: 292 Registered: 03-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, December 04, 2006 - 05:56 pm:     Hello Kate, First of all, you should answer to your self, what kind of a business are you doing: a REAL one, or a VIRTUAL one???? Doing a REAL business, means you are conducting your business by your self, and you can really feel the pulse of your own market (from the behaviour of your suppliers till to the behaviour of your clients)! Doing a VIRTUAL business, means you are not conducting any business by your self, but you ONLY BET on a certain business done by other persons! If you are doing a VIRTUAL business, you should be aware about: 1) Better figures from the past till the present time, are telling us EVER, it is the right time ONLY TO SELL! 2) Worst figures from the past till the present time, are telling us EVER, it is the right time ONLY TO BUY, so that we should have what to sell, when better times are coming, TO MAKE A PROFIT INDEED! You say:"...To me the evidence is so conflicting I have absolutely no idea what will happen!" To solve the conflict you have yet, between a so called NON-EVIDENCE or EVIDENCE, you have: 1) ONLY to look at the chart FOR A MEDIUM TIMEFRAME=5 years, for any title you are interested in, and after this 2) to answer at this very simple question: What kind of moments are we living yet, the better or the worst moments of the evolution we are interested for????? (Message edited by stoian on December 04, 2006)  captain_chaza Member Username: captain_chaza Post Number: 2270 Registered: 02-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, December 04, 2006 - 06:48 pm:     Ahoy Brave and Loyal Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie I through the DOW overboard years ago It made no sence to me In the good old days the DOW represented the OLD economy The Nasdaq represented the new kids on the block As the Nasdaq flourished the DOW languished and something had to be done Confidence in the Big OLD Economy was faltering THEN Those bloody idiots Captains Standard and Poors were brought in to sort out the mess Their bright idea was to admit Microsoft and Intel into this exclusive club of 20 then 27 to fool our Mums and Dads and halt a fully fledged Downer I am shocked it is now 30 I am equally shocked in what you say ie:"They delisted their Mining interests" They were very OLD SCHOOL Boys and I doubt very much what you say? With my fading memory they had a couple of miners and one huge oiler as I remember? Each and every member of the DOW in those Good old days was considered to be the same size as our beloved ASX Could you please give me your latest Ship design of the DOW ? NOWADAYS! For ease of calculations please lets assume this DOW design to be like an Old fashioned "Tall Ship" ie: "Each sail having Equal Size" Salute and Gods' Speed PS I used to look at each individual DOW sail as an indeceis. Is it no wonder I hate those 2 Captains of Chaos Capt's S&P? PPS Crikey ! It only took them a year or two to find Australia and stuff up out Material classes and hence our beloved XAO "While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C. "I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893 "There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897  captain_chaza Member Username: captain_chaza Post Number: 2271 Registered: 02-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, December 04, 2006 - 07:23 pm:     Ahoy again Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie Do you think there could be something in the name? ie: The Dow Jones Industrial Average Maybe we should not look any further than that? And not expect any more from these readings? Salute and Bon Appetit PS Life at sea has been good to me this year I have not had to eat fish "ONE Day" this Financial year I know it is only early days! "While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C. "I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate." Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893 "There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897  kate Member Username: kate Post Number: 454 Registered: 04-2005 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, December 04, 2006 - 08:46 pm: