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     justice
Member
Username: justice
Post Number: 699
Registered: 01-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 26, 2006 - 03:26 pm: |  
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... I just read the numbered opinions at random.
"ITS THE END OF THE EMPIRE AND I FEEL FINE."
http://www.bullnotbull.com/blog/?p=92
... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 907
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 26, 2006 - 06:33 pm: |
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Hershy, if I knew that I'd be betting on it  I'm 100% cash and watching. No ideas right now ...
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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hailoh
Member
Username: hailoh
Post Number: 204
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 06, 2007 - 05:25 pm: |
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Based on past performance, the price curve will retrace within the trend lines ( the rubber band effect in action.) I won't hazard a guess as to how the day to day action will unfold.
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hailoh
Member
Username: hailoh
Post Number: 206
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 13, 2007 - 03:21 pm: |
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An update of the DJIA and Transportation Indices that were showing such a strong divergence in December. Using the Transportation Index as a guide to DJIA performance has been misleading to say the least, so the caution issued by Colin ( copied in my post of December 24) seems well founded.
Just when it appears you have a useful tool, the handle breaks
The breakout above the upper trend line I noted a few posts ago may go on for a while to develop a higher channel but I am still very cautious. I felt comfortable with Colin's Big Picture summary last week which I believe was one of his most deliberate diary statements.
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userxx
Member
Username: userxx
Post Number: 41
Registered: 02-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 04, 2007 - 01:54 pm: |
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We may have reached a short term top, I am expecting a reversal sometime this week
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fibonacci
Member
Username: fibonacci
Post Number: 172
Registered: 10-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 04, 2007 - 03:09 pm: |
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WHY do you conclude that?
John
You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.
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userxx
Member
Username: userxx
Post Number: 42
Registered: 02-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 05, 2007 - 02:06 pm: |
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I should have said next week, 144 days since the July '06 low, and we have already reached the fib extension from the July '06 low to the Sept '06 high.
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walkerd2
Member
Username: walkerd2
Post Number: 9
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 08, 2007 - 10:13 pm: |
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Whats this i see before me
A triple doji
on Dow and S&P
Is that candle alight?
Tooroo technists and charters
come back to the MA and BOUNCE!!
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 540
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 03, 2007 - 10:04 am: |
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Have not seen a chart on the dow for a month - even if it is a most unattractive sight  .
There are several points of interest close to where the XDO index is:
* The initial drop in the index is right about there - could just drop again soon...
* The available puts (DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX warrants) are 12,100 points - the others are too far out of the money to consider IMO
* The 150 day SMA is somewhere around there - lets hope this line provides some resistance.
* Heavy duty support right about there as well - looks to be generally holding ok.
Unfortunately 11,700 is the next heavy duty support - not worth considering just yet.(this is where the 200 D_SMA is positioned) ...
Perhaps there will be further correction lower so I am not captain buying in just right now - but say the end of the march the future will be a lot clearer and picking the eyes out of the market will be a lot easier. You have to find a level of risk that suits your nature and run with that strategy.
Chart:
I guess one need to keep one's legs together for a little longer
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 621
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 08, 2007 - 08:33 am: |
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Three months since any commentary here, and the chart is beginning to look ugly: index value down on increased volume, MACD, CCI & RSI all looking poorly.
Chart: Short term support has not offered support!
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 688
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 14, 2007 - 07:36 am: |
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What a difference one month has made!
Daily chart:
The computer says: "Resistance is futile"
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2761
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 14, 2007 - 03:33 pm: |
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The 2001/2002 corrections is long enough to last us the next 10 years without having another one.As it has reached such a low base I was and still is pretty confident that it will go on for at least another 2 to 3 years longer.Like any Bull Market the predictions that it was a Bear market went back as long as 2005 where our top Bear,Cow in name was forecasting that it was going to "crash" any time and then they could wagged into the market after that.Whilst well experienced traders choose to step aside waiting for the corrections to come.Even the cab driver is less bullish, surely now is a "true" Bull market which is climbing a "wall of worries".With restraint from so many, the Bull market will go on a lot longer than the usual 4-5 years Bull which usually follow by a Bear year.Having been in the market in the 70s and 80s, in which commodities had fared less favourably, I was a bit reluctant to get on to the resources gravy train like tryhay, rederob and a few others and thus missed out on the "turbo" ride in the last 2 years.It is not too late as I have now gradually reallocate my portfolio to resource bias,I can actually see the difference in a very short space of time.Just looking at the economics of things,the BULL market is here to stay for some time yet and the commodities train is only getting warm up recently, so there is still a lot of steam yet.M&A activities in this sector will see it going to a level that we wouldn't have witnessed in the past in our life time.Out of those that I have got my money riding on is likely to be taken over by another or one of my favourites may turn predator.There is a tremendous amount of excitement in the air. This will go on for some time yet till China and India stop importing and the rest of the world intend to stop their economic growth.Mutual objectives to see that our economies do not experience a BOOM/BUST effect will ensure various governments moderate their growth behaviour to ensure that this enjoyment will last a longer period.
NB: At time of writing,AWC which I hold looks like a likely victim for BHP and TTY looks like a likely predator for CSM if there is any truth in the media report.
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 703
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, August 05, 2007 - 09:58 am: |
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Arn't these interesting times ~ obvious (after the event) fake out in XDO on 13th July.
Just watched a video of Marc Faber ~ yes I know not so +ve a message, but a very intelligent man who plays the devil's advocate in this economic rationalist world. His video (paste into I.E. address line) <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmbl4apxcmy&mode=related&search=> shows how more than 3 months ago he saw this correction coming. Using Colin's marvelous Fibonacci tools (thank you Colin) I guess Dow will retrace to 127.375 (approx the Feb '07 peak), and on that basis am happy to pick up some short shorts monday morning.
Chart for consideration:
Interestingly he is bullish on Gold: suggests long gold on retracement by about this time
Also suggests industrial commodities (Hard C's) may be vunerable (perhaps with some exceptions - particularly "softs")
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 57
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, August 06, 2007 - 02:28 am: |
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weekly projections - world indices - 6th / 10th august 1007
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 994
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, August 07, 2007 - 06:37 pm: |
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This page describes a long and complex topping pattern which the Dow appears to be forming right now ...
http://www.tradersaffiliates.com/MARKETUPDATE.htm
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 714
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 31, 2007 - 08:31 am: |
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Volatility is likely to continue with the dow but the chart is starting to look a bit more +ve IMO. However the sub-prime drama looks set to continue "Standard & Poor's has defended its global ratings system, which has been heavily criticised in the wake of the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market in the United States. Chief economist, David Wyss, in Sydney on a lecture tour, said the agency followed stringent ratings procedures when assessing debt products. He said the pattern of recent failures was 'fairly typical' of a housing recession" well there you go with the 'R' word in today's THE AUSTRALIAN P21.
Unfortunately we are caught up in the wash "Australian hedge fund manager, Basis Capital, has applied for bankruptcy protection for one of its funds that has sustained heavy losses from its investments in the United States (US) sub-prime mortgage market" today's THE AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW P1. Not to mention the xjo's unoriginal price movements....
I wonder how many rabbits B Bernanke has up his sleave?
Daily chart: MACD starting to behave but looks like a retest upcoming...
Still holding on to my shorts...
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easymoney
Member
Username: easymoney
Post Number: 42
Registered: 03-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 31, 2007 - 11:10 am: |
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With the DJIA about 2% above the daily 200EMA after the brief penetration below that level, my crystal ball says that there are three rather unremarkable possibilities.
First there will be a recovery over the next few months to levels about 4% higher. Second there will be the start of a downturn lasting a year or longer in which case it must again fall below the 200EMA. Third the market will wobble about until the fear subsides and greed is once again the driving force.
With the size of the current wobbles being up to 2% daily my play will be to enter by a stop roughly 0.5% above the current level with a stop about 0.25% below entry. The stops to be reset daily.
The trading timeframe is mixed. The best result will be a painless entry into a six month trade. The intermediate result will be a quick profit of perhaps 1% in a couple of days. The worst case result is a loss of 0.25%.
Overall, this is a situation where trading tactics are more important than anything more than very basic technical analysis.
Two of them say they're Jesus.
One of them must be wrong.
Industrial Disease
Dire Straits
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 72
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 03, 2007 - 11:39 am: |
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weekly levels - 3rd / 7th sep 2007
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 76
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 10, 2007 - 09:58 am: |
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weekly levels - 10th / 14th september 2007
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 809
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 24, 2007 - 12:19 pm: |
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No one interested in this topic for a couple of months - some oversight!
Dow looks oversold and if the current support hold we may just see an impulsive move up ( santa rally time ).
Daily chart:Some interesting divergence on the CCI and perhaps the MACD histogram. Looking for an RSI breakout before buying up big here.... Still looks like a topping formation set up to me though (Price action below the 200D_MA and its leveling out don't look Flash Harry)
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 890
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - 09:24 pm: |
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FWIW potential head and shoulders pattern on DJIA; unfortunately the break of the neckline appears to have occurred, candle/s on not looking +ve ATM, momentum bulk -ve, 61% Fib support failed & now the price action is the wrong side of the 200D_MAs with volatility increasing ~ a long and distinguished list of -ve attributes for this guide to our XAO: looks like a viable scenario to me. If so, it's a worry (thank you "The Word")
DJIA Daily chart: here is hoping 12,000 pulls the possible retrace....
& HC was saying no cause for alarm? I think there is plenty to see here if you care to look ~ If the dow has another shocker tonight I'm topping up on short shorts asap....
Happy trading DYOR
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3023
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 04:32 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Tryhay
Although not strictly a Technical Indicator I got up early on Saturday/ Friday Arvo NY time to watch the DOW and the flight of migrating birds in that hemisphere
What I saw was truly amazing
There was bad news really/ bad news reported all over the place and together with that
the Yanks were coming into a long weekend!!!
There were warning signs everywhere
You could have bet London to a brick that the DOW would have had a really bad day
But it didn't!
As a seasoned seaman and always vigilant I watched the flight of those migrating birds in those couple of hours and witnessed that were were flying North and continued so until dusk
Nearly all the days lost ground was made up in the afternoon
It was truly remarkable
It's no wonder the world markets have caught the Yanks off guard this time and better still
on a Long week-end
They will have to learn how to cage those migrating birds up if they ever expect to catch this Captain out
Hey?
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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yogiinoz
Member
Username: yogiinoz
Post Number: 2634
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 24, 2008 - 11:21 pm: |
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Hi folks,
DOW ..... looking at the time cycles ahead, we can expect
more negativity in July, September and October 2008,
in particular ...
21-25072008 ..... 2 significant and negative cycles here
11-12092008 ..... 3 significant and negative cycles here
06-08102008 ..... 4 time cycles = volatile trading ???
20-24102008 ..... significant and negative cycle expected
27102008 ..... aggressive and positive cycle in play
happy days
paul
=====
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1006
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 19, 2008 - 06:48 am: |
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big night with some significant resistance broken ~ wonder how many herbs left in the tank
Daily chart:
Looks like top up time IMO
Happy trading DYOR
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 1015
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 19, 2008 - 09:02 am: |
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tryhay,
Could this crazy model be right? I first saw this months ago and dismissed it as nutty, but perhaps not!
http://www.tradersaffiliates.com/WEEKLY30.jpg
(From http://www.tradersaffiliates.com/WEEKLY%20UPDATE.htm)
McLaren says that for the current action to be proved a new up trend rather that a bear market counter trend, the S&P500 must break above 3/8ths of the move down, and hold above that level after 1st of May (99 calendar days from the top).
http://ttc.net.au/~stever
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1007
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 19, 2008 - 10:39 am: |
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One needs an observant, open mind when trading and the price action & volume on the Dow suggest a powerful move is occurring here. To Look at the actual chart (posted below) I can not see the price action getting to higher than 13688 any time soon (but the chart perler posted suggests 13911 by anzac day (crazy or not who cares) Particularly with the 200D_MA upcoming: infact I'll be surprised if 13218 is busted ~ but who knows?
Chart:
I still think top up time (even if for the short term)
Happy trading DYOR
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 739
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 19, 2008 - 04:57 pm: |
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It all stops at 13112.
---
ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 49
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 21, 2008 - 04:58 am: |
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ohk: Good choice for the Ceiling . I get, by Fibs, a spike to 13047-13159 may take place . Better if it halts or closes below 12937.
See how far it gets with "[reduced]earnings exceeding [downward revised] estimates" .A good example is :U.S. stocks rally on Citigroup earnings" Citi reported :
The -$1.02 per share loss exceeded the consensus estimate of -0.95.
# Citi's Q1 revenue fell 48%. Go figure!
By some the DOW has already given a BUY signal with the Close above 12743. Should be an interesting week .
(Message edited by paddy on April 21, 2008)
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 746
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 04, 2008 - 08:59 am: |
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13112 was hit. I am very curious about what happens now.
---
ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 268
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 04, 2008 - 09:27 am: |
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Okn
Seen this? http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/6/1405685.html
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 69
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 04, 2008 - 10:38 am: |
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Friday the DOW rose to 13132 and then retreated to close at 13058 . That was the first test of resistance at 13110-13112 and above at 13152-13159 . Monday should bring another test or perhaps a test of support at 12870 . All depends on whether the Market gets fed some doom & gloom or over the rainbow news .
Regards,
Paddy
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1052
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 23, 2008 - 04:34 pm: |
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Looks like DOW swinging lower before going higher
Daily chart:
Sounds like long weekend in US so I guess our market will piddle around on tuesday then...
(Message edited by tryhay on May 23, 2008)
Happy trading DYOR
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 751
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 24, 2008 - 06:56 am: |
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A bad trader is a trader that does risk money when his analysis is wrong and doesn't risk money when his analysis is right.
---
ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1067
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 07, 2008 - 09:37 am: |
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Increased volume on lower price action is not good (must be bad)
50 day moving average still pointing down and just too strong for this poor index ~ & indicators are not oversold just yet. Thank goodness as I'm short <15% of my total real portfolio (topped up on friday phew)....
DJIA daily: RSI looks to be ready to test sub 30 & CCI sub 200?
Incredible charts DJIAA already achieved the double top target but looks to be targeting 12000 (but could just go lots more)
(Message edited by tryhay on June 07, 2008)
Happy trading DYOR
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 130
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 07, 2008 - 10:36 am: |
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tryhay : It is going to go a lot lower but there are going to be lots of "rallies" along the way to the bottom. Literally everything is negative but on Monday they'll have to "spin" some sort of rally as it is too soon to scare off the "fish".
Regards,
Paddy
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1082
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 08:57 am: |
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paddy wrote on Saturday, June 07, 2008 - 10:36 am:It is going to go a lot lower but there are going to be lots of "rallies" along the way to the bottom.
Hi Paddy yes the market almost never moves in straight lines (particularly not for any length of time), however given the volume/s and previous possible resistance one of them ""spin" some sort of rally " rallys may just be around the corner.
Daily chart: none of the indicators looks flash at the moment but watching around here for a bounce (US doesn't have tax loss selling around now but just the "sell in may and go away" slogan ~ is that right paddy?)
Not impressed with the bearish flag routine most markets seem to be favouring lately!
if ~11600 don't stop the rot I think it will be most ugly for most (I note RSI is close to the traditional oversold point ~ and why would this time be any different?)
(Message edited by tryhay on June 24, 2008)
Happy trading DYOR
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 83
Registered: 09-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 07:35 pm: |
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pl have a look at attached DJI chart. it is a daily chart.magenta denotes uptrend and yellow denotes downtrend.
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 84
Registered: 09-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 07:40 pm: |
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 198
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 04:07 am: |
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tryhay : I think you are light on the initial downside . I think that we will see 11524 and then a so-called "counter trend" rally that will essentially go nowhere.
I think that the "medusa" H&S [ weekly - better in monthly chart] and the Triangle have yet to be played out .
As you wrote : " Sell in May and Go Away". This year come back to a market that is ready for a "nuclear winter".
Still a long ways to go.
Paddy
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stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 411
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 05:39 pm: |
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Kate,
Do you remember my forecast, made for you already on December 2006, as you was asking about the future evolution of the DOW JONES INDEX ????
stoian wrote on Monday, December 04, 2006 - 05:56 pm:.. God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 292
Registered: 03-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)
Monday, December 04, 2006 - 05:56 pm: Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)
Hello Kate,
First of all, you should answer to your self, what kind of a business are you doing: a REAL one, or a VIRTUAL one????
Doing a REAL business, means you are conducting your business by your self, and you can really feel the pulse of your own market (from the behaviour of your suppliers till to the behaviour of your clients)!
Doing a VIRTUAL business, means you are not conducting any business by your self, but you ONLY BET on a certain business done by other persons!
If you are doing a VIRTUAL business, you should be aware about:
1) Better figures from the past till the present time, are telling us EVER, it is the right time ONLY TO SELL!
2) Worst figures from the past till the present time, are telling us EVER, it is the right time ONLY TO BUY, so that we should have what to sell, when better times are coming, TO MAKE A PROFIT INDEED!
You say:"...To me the evidence is so conflicting I have absolutely no idea what will happen!"
To solve the conflict you have yet, between a so called NON-EVIDENCE or EVIDENCE, you have:
1) ONLY to look at the chart FOR A MEDIUM TIMEFRAME=5 years, for any title you are interested in, and after this
2) to answer at this very simple question:
What kind of moments are we living yet, the better or the worst moments of the evolution we are interested for?????
(Message edited by stoian on December 04, 2006)
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stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 412
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 06:35 pm: |
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Kate,
But, what i have not told you in December 2006 already, was about:
THE MOST PROBABLE INTERVAL FOR THE VARIATIONS=FLUCTUATIONS=OSCILLATIONS AGAINST THE MEAN IN TIME,
which i am telling you only yet about it, that:
HE IS PROVEN=GIVEN ONLY BY THE WHOLE HISTORY:
You cannot ever know THE TRUE LEVEL OF THE
MOST PROBABLE UNIT=STANDARD=NORM FOR THE
INSTANTANEOUS RISK OF INCREASE AND/OR DECREASE IN TIME (or also called INSTANTANEOUS VOLATILITY) AGAINST THE MEAN IN TIME, if you are looking further:
FOR ONLY A VERY SMALL PART OF THE WHOLE TRUTH, like:
EVERY "TECHNICAL ANALYST" IS DOING !
Please, dont forget:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRgIbKEsYT4
Regards,
Doru Stoian
(Message edited by stoian on June 25, 2008)
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stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 413
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 06:53 pm: |
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Dear "free"masons,
or dear Mr. Alan Greenspan,
dear Mr. Trichet,
dear Mr. Isarescu,
What about your assumptions:
" It gives not a MATHEMATICAL MODEL for predicting the FUTURE EVOLUTION, and: IT`S ALSO IMPOSSIBLE TO IMAGINATE SUCH A MODEL. Therefore, such A MODEL CAN AND WILL BE NEVER INVENTED "
Because nobody can be so clever, to take into consideration=to assume for himself in advance:
THE WHOLE UN_CERTAINTY ALSO, instead of THE GIVEN=KNOWN CERTAINTY ONLY !
Regards,
Doru Stoian
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3228
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 07:06 pm: |
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Ahoy Sea-Cadet Doru
This is the time for you to prove to me that you are worthy of an Officership in this modern era
What do you say will happen tonite on the DOW given you are all in the know
Up/ Down /Sideways
Which sectors/classes of sail do you anticipate to do better than the rest tonite
This question is not MUMBO-JUMBO
It is plain and simple
It is merely asking to see if you have any opinion that is worth considering tonite
OR
Are you just another one of those Greedy Landlubbers filled with HOT Wind vindicated by your excellence 5 years after the fact
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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stoian
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Username: stoian
Post Number: 415
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| | Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 07:52 pm: |
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Chaptain_Chazaaaaaaaaa,
Do you think i am an idiot like any other hundred of millions of people=GAMBLERS from the entire world, or what ?
TO BET MY 10 YEARS LONG WORK=RESEARCH, ON A SINGLE CASINO NUMBER=CARD ???
That means for me:
THAT YOU ARE NOT AWARE:
ABOUT WHAT THE TRUE=COMMON="ORDINARY"=USUALLY=MOST PROBABLE=PROVEN BY THE WHOLE HISTORY OF EVOLUTION,
- AND SIMULTANEOUS AN INSTANTANEOUS ONE=that means to be valid for timeframes with a lenght from one to the other second, till a day to an other -
RISK OF INCREASE/DECREASE IN TIME IS MEANING !
Captain_chazaaaaaa,
Please, dont envy me for my BRAIN=SPIRIT AS A RESULT OF AN INTELLIGENT CREATION, AND NOT AS A RESULT OF A LUCKY EVOLUTION FROM "THE MONKEY STAGE" !
Regards,
Cadet Doru Stoian
(Message edited by stoian on June 25, 2008)
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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3230
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| | Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 08:45 pm: |
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Ahoy Doru
No! I don't think you are an idiot!
But it is Bloody close to what I think!
I suppose it all depends on whether you can make a short term reckoning of the situation tonite before the fact or not?
Hey?
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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stoian
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Username: stoian
Post Number: 417
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| | Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 02:56 am: |
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Captain_Chaza,
Do you mean a forecast on short time, like this one i have made on the 17 April 2008, and that is already fulfilled till nowaday ?
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stoian
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Username: stoian
Post Number: 418
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| | Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 03:04 am: |
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Captain_Chaza,
Why are you asking me such things ???
Because i am not a GAMBLER, and - ANYWAY - like i already told you:
ONLY IDIOTS ARE ABLE TO WORK EVERY DAY=ALL DAY LONG, INTO=FOR A VERY SMALL BAR_GAIN !!!
(Message edited by stoian on June 26, 2008)
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1094
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 07:45 am: |
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Some indicators are telling an interesting story here ~ there could be a short term bounce nearby if the indicators can be believed .....
Daily chart: RSI oversold and coming back (now 24 ~ should now look for divergence here); Price action down with volume increasing; some divergence on MACD histogram & CCI; with possible support looming & possible price targets approaching...
Bit more margin selling could be in order..
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1124
Registered: 09-2005
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| | Sunday, August 10, 2008 - 03:28 pm: |
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Well I guess we have had the short term bounce, and if failed support turns into stiff resistance then the rout is likely soon to continue...
DJIA daily chart: Trusting that sale continues a few days more...
Happy trading DYOR
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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3322
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
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| | Sunday, August 10, 2008 - 05:33 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Tryhay
Does it ever get any better than this?
Salute and Gods' speed
PS : The sweet FA'ers have been Caught-Out again reading thinking re-writing copy /pasting and sinking again into each others arms
"Misery loves company"
PPS: Crikey! The Good Friar is probably in jail somewhere for forming some New Gay-Scouts movement for all I know?
Nothing surprises me anymore
PPPS; Crikey! Does it ever get any better than this?
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1126
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| | Sunday, August 10, 2008 - 06:50 pm: |
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Hi CC
Yes something is rotten in the state of Denmark (or somewhere close)
captain_chaza wrote on Sunday, August 10, 2008 - 05:33 pm:Does it ever get any better than this?
One could think of it as distressing that world events are combining to support current market action. It is difficult to fathom the hide of the US democracy (particularly the executive priveladge etc.) apparently acting in concert with the rational economic action of the industrial military complex.
Some in the US want Bush impeached but I can not see them getting him out until the election ~ he seems busy stiring the pot in black/caspian sea area and continuing to stuff things up in an exemplary manner (if one believes the skuttlebutt indicated below). Another war is just what the US does not need at the moment......
Seems the Middle East is heating up and attracting the attention of the military complex.
I am guessing the market index's will soon be lower and the price of oil/Gold will soon be higher. See "Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Russia sent warships from the Black Sea fleet toward Georgia as it stepped up its conflict with the former Soviet republic over the separatist South Ossetia region", and snippets from the BBC and other news services.
Map of middle east oil/gas pipelines (perhaps that is what is attracting the hanger oners):
Source: BBQ postings (others too big to post here)
Oh yes I just remembered the oil reserves in IRAQ are expected to be greater than those of Sudi Arabia ~ I wonder if the west will ever see them or will they rot in the ground as the instability in the region prevents their exploitation......
If oil and gold go up and XLF goes down the markets will surely follow (lower) IMO
(Message edited by tryhay on August 10, 2008)
Happy trading DYOR
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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3323
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| | Sunday, August 10, 2008 - 08:35 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Tryhay
You are reading too much into the INTO?
Nobody knows what is in for us!
IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME!SLASH!/ TIMING!
If you get it RIGHT in this world you ARE A GOD! A GENIUS! or A GURU!
If you get it wrong?
You are not any of the above!
You are either a Sweet FA'er or a half-baked Baker IMHO
It is amazing how these bakers get it so-wrong at the all important Pivot-Points
It is as if they only listen to themselves!
I fully accept that "Misery loves company!"
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3324
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, August 10, 2008 - 09:05 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Tryhay
When studying "The Big Board" one should not be so dis-respectful
I prefer to leave the losing streaks from now on into the future to the academics and Sweet FA'ers who know better than copy and paste
Little do they know that Copy/Paste Thesis' are not acceptable at sea in these times
Crikey! How dumb do these Greedy landlubbers really have to get to see when the Seas begin a Change?
BLOODY AMAZING isn't it?!
NB: Please use your code books/IQ to fathom out the missing words
We must all be vigilant in these times of a Major Sea Change!!
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on August 10, 2008)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on August 10, 2008)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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stoian
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Username: stoian
Post Number: 446
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Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 15, 2008 - 06:12 pm: |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRgIbKEsYT4
(Message edited by stoian on August 15, 2008)
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stoian
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Username: stoian
Post Number: 450
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| | Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 07:14 am: |
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My dears,
This is not BLIND LUCK ! This is MATHEMATICS:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRgIbKEsYT4
stoian wrote on Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 02:56 am:Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 02:56 am: Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)
Captain_Chaza,
Do you mean a forecast on short time, like this one i have made on the 17 April 2008, and that is already fulfilled till nowaday ?
(Message edited by stoian on August 30, 2008)
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1136
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| | Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 09:45 am: |
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There has been much ado about (next to) nothing with respect to the various markets "rally/s" recently IMO and I think the latest indu chart together with the VIX support that idea....
The "rally/s" on various markets have been uninspiring to say the least, and GUSTAV & the other cyclone/hurracane may just see to a final push lower on markets before the real rally has more conviction...
INDU Chart Looks to have fallen out of bed (the rising wedge) and the 50 D MA is providing the "kiss" as we speak: with the MACDH & Slo Sto divergence not to mention the toy volume providing the signpost/s
VIX Looks like a breakout of the falling wedge with a move back to the 30 area not taking too long IMO.
Happy trading DYOR
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paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 712
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
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| | Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 10:31 am: |
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tryhay : Your 50 D MA is actually the 50 D EMA and is, IMO, not the "kiss". The rise in the Dow [ INDU] was stopped at the Lower Boundary of the TPAW [ Third point Ascending Wedge] . Said boundary was at 11725 yesterday and 11755 today. The boundary is a projected non-horizontal trend line and for next trading session it will be at 11780 with the Upper boundary at 12065.
Regards,
Paddy
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1137
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| | Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 11:30 am: |
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Hi Paddy
paddy wrote on Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 10:31 am:Said boundary (of the Third point Ascending Wedge?) was at 11725 yesterday and 11755 today. The boundary is a projected non-horizontal trend line and for next trading session it will be at 11780 with the Upper boundary at 12065
Your comments are about as clear as mud to me (you must be talking about some other ascending wedge?) but I guess we will be sure of future moves as soon as they happen....
Happy trading DYOR
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paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 713
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| | Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 12:21 pm: |
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tryhay:
Lighten up . Guess you haven't read any of my other postings re the "TPAW" . Would have thought that it was quite CLEAR that a non-horizontal trend line value would change with time . In this case described each day . I'm from the old school . I learned to do ore reserve calculations without a computer . It was a lot of work but you really thought about what you were doing . For me, same goes with charts. There are some that I draw by hand and it just happens that this INDU chart is one of them . I have attached a chart from another site that depicts the TPAW. I had drawn said pattern before them . I gave it an unique name when I drew it and still refer to it as such. The Lower Boundary of the TPAW has given the recent "rally attempts" the KoD as described by others.
Regards and hopefully "clearing" the mud
Paddy
----------------The Third Point Ascending Wedge
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1138
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| | Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 01:21 pm: |
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paddy wrote on Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 12:21 pm:Lighten up
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh OK then. I do not keep across all the posts on this site (apologise) so it helps if each thread has some integraty of content.
I note the patterns change slightly depending on which charting software one uses, & I was not sure if you were suggesting above ( in Post Number: 712) that the dow was marching higher rather than dropping further out of bed...
Colin's chart below shows clearly an apparent double backtest of the original wedge support with a possible new support channel (as the wedge has broken and perhaps a channel is being formed).
My guess is that if the pink line fails and the MACD stops piddling around the zero line then top up time will be here again...
Happy trading DYOR
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paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 714
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| | Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 02:03 pm: |
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tryhay : No apologies needed. However easy on those lines on the chart. Are you trying to one up Stoian with his multi-color charts.
Now where in hell would you have gotten the idea that, as Rudy coined, the ayudante del Segador Austero, that I would be promoting a "new beginning" for the Dow. Hell there is Still a Long Ways to GO! and that is DOWn.
Between the Dow and Oil there will be "dead rat" and "dead cat" bounces as "they" try to manipulate the Markets.
Will write more in Way of the Dow.
Regards,
Paddy
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moleman
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Username: moleman
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| | Friday, September 26, 2008 - 09:26 am: |
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Have a look at Bill Cara's site www.billcara.com for a great read. Last Thursday he rang the bell and says:
"I continue to believe the equity market will split the financials from the non-financials, where the non-financials started a new Bull market on Thursday afternoon, but where the financial stocks will only rally for a time before falling again to test the sector bottom."
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2008/09/week_in_review_38_20080921_1.html#more
He also says the next few years will be much like the period from 1974 through mid-1982.
cheers
MM
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justice
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| | Friday, September 26, 2008 - 12:10 pm: |
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182,00 views of this speech to Congress.
I hope they were mostly US viewers.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5435548478337440219&ei=FUDcSOHsOZHqqAOqr NCXCw&vt=lf&hl=en
Fascism should more appropriately be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power.
"Trust me I'm from the Government and here to help."
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paddy
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Username: paddy
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| | Friday, September 26, 2008 - 01:04 pm: |
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Justice : Good post . I doubt that the general American public has any real idea of what is really going on . Do me a favor and send your post re the Bailout and Spitzer to O'Reilly at Fox News.
In my opinion this speech was better than the Bush BS speech.
Going by the Futures looks like we may flush The Bush BS rally out of the system tomorrow.
Regards,
Paddy
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justice
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| | Friday, September 26, 2008 - 01:32 pm: |
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Paddy:
You said the bill would initially fail. Congratulations.
You have also already pointed out, rather vividly, the fact I had likely been reading a work of fiction - I see you feel the need you rub it in. I am duly rebuked.
Regards,
just ice
(Message edited by justice on September 26, 2008)
Fascism should more appropriately be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power.
"Trust me I'm from the Government and here to help."
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justice
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| | Saturday, September 27, 2008 - 12:26 am: |
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Paddy:
Did you check out top two video links from the Related aisle in the You-Tube Congress link above.
Cheers,
just ice
PS
Perhaps Congress could also legislate the use of the word "Federal" while they're fixing things and catch up on their country's heritage while at it:
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Thomas Jefferson 's prophecy has now come true and, yet, we act surprised; and, if we are, it is because the corporate controlled media has effectively misled Americans about the cause of their problems.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6412.html
(Message edited by justice on September 27, 2008)
Fascism should more appropriately be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power.
"Trust me I'm from the Government and here to help."
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 886
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 27, 2008 - 06:10 am: |
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Justice : Yes I watched them . Glad someone has stood up to "saving" the sleazy bankers / crooks / l..yers .
Haven't heard anyone suggest that the assets of said scum should be seized / frozen and used to offset some of the damaged that they are responsible for . Then to the "altars" with them.
I guess there are no criminal proceedings as they would be given presidential pardons.
Regards,
Paddy
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justice
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Post Number: 755
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| | Saturday, September 27, 2008 - 09:05 am: |
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Paddy:
I see Your BDI figures and the this graphic look tragic.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$BDI
That means we'll get an further imPOSSIBLE RALLY Monday.
US, Russia announce breakthrough on new Iran resolution.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0927/p25s21-usfp.html
Ho hum.
Regards,
justice
Fascism should more appropriately be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power.
"Trust me I'm from the Government and here to help."
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 887
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 27, 2008 - 10:55 am: |
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Justice : You posted wrong chart - no big deal as the $BDI is just a big downhill ski-slope.
What is important is that the BCI may drop down to an estimated level of 3074 . This is taking a report that stated that the BCI would drop another 50% before there was any support. That equates to a DSR rate of $31050 .
Todays "rally" was another "hope" rally . Yes there will probably be a continuation of the absurdity on Monday. Going to be one fine drop when reality sets in. I didn't know that a Bear Market could end as the global economy is SLOWING down as shown by the BCI / BDI indices. The BCI accounts for 62% of the global seaborne cargo.
Things like layoffs , cutting earnings projections , etc have taken a back seat to the " Mother of All Mothers" bailout by Momma . Won't cost much really - ONLY $250 billion upfront. Who are they kidding? There will be more layoffs, earnings reduction estimates.
Get those block buster bombs over to Israel ASAP . Like airlift them and give the world a diversion from this "inside robbery" by the banks,financial and mortgage companies.
Regards,
Paddy
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justice
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| | Saturday, September 27, 2008 - 12:38 pm: |
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Paddy: A diversion eh?
They could just use cgi; doctor reruns of old Iraqi installation bombings to their hearts' content.
But is it necessary.
The Spitzer article may work better.
Ben was expecting early retirement was he?
We're a weird mob,
Ice
(Message edited by justice on September 27, 2008)
Fascism should more appropriately be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power.
"Trust me I'm from the Government and here to help."
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1172
Registered: 09-2005
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| | Wednesday, October 08, 2008 - 04:55 pm: |
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justice wrote on Saturday, September 27, 2008 - 12:38 pm:Paddy: A diversion eh?
I'm not sure that this is the kind of diversion you are referring to Justice, but this VIX divergence portends well for the market/s IMO ~ even if only for a shortish term ....
Some other indicators looking divergent as well - interesting times I'm sure
Happy trading DYOR
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justice
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Username: justice
Post Number: 790
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| | Wednesday, October 08, 2008 - 06:01 pm: |
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tryhay:
Hasn't reached 100 yet!
POG may break above 931. Next target would 978
regards,
justice
PS If that's a view from your porch in your profile you're a lucky man.
"The trouble is the banks don't trust each other." - Why should they?
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1184
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| | Thursday, October 16, 2008 - 09:18 pm: |
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Hi ice
justice wrote on Wednesday, October 08, 2008 - 07:01 pm:Hasn't reached 100 yet!
Looks like we are not going higher than 80 ATM:bullish cross on the Slow Sto and my guess is all points lower ( I mean higher on our market).
justice wrote on Wednesday, October 08, 2008 - 07:01 pm:PS If that's a view from your porch in your profile you're a lucky man
I wish ~ in fACT Port Kembla Sewage treatment plant (& fishermans beach) - nice fishing believe it or not....
[IMG]http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u351/tryhay/October/10_15_vix_us_price_daily_and_slow_s.png[/IMG]
Looks like time to top up for the "short term" bounce IMO & then look out below....
I not futures are DJIA INDEX 8,604.00 +100.00 Bloomberg
Happy trading DYOR
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justice
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Username: justice
Post Number: 797
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| | Thursday, October 16, 2008 - 09:54 pm: |
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tryhay:
There's whole batch of economic news at 12:30 GMT that could cause an allergic reaction to going LONG.
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
regards, justice
"The trouble is the banks don't trust each other." - That says it all!
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1186
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| | Thursday, October 16, 2008 - 10:06 pm: |
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justice wrote on Thursday, October 16, 2008 - 10:54 pm:There's whole batch of economic news at 12:30 GMT that could cause an allergic reaction to going LONG
Point made ice, but these markets are being manipulated by hedge funds big time and there for the news release is too late (already priced in) and the commodities price is just as easily moved higher as lower (eternal cynic)
Having said that I ain't got big long positions but am ready to top up in the event it is appropriate....
Happy trading DYOR
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stoian
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Username: stoian
Post Number: 475
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| | Thursday, October 16, 2008 - 11:19 pm: |
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justice wrote on Thursday, October 16, 2008 - 10:54 pm:Thursday, October 16, 2008 - 10:54 pm:
tryhay:
There's whole batch of economic news at 12:30 GMT that could cause an allergic reaction to going LONG.
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
regards, justice
Yes, this it`s TRUE for the Stock Market, but you can GO LONG WITH THE DOLLAR ON THE FORE(IGN)(E)X(CHANGE) MARKET.
(Message edited by stoian on October 17, 2008)
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justice
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| | Friday, October 17, 2008 - 12:03 pm: |
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stoin;
I tried doing that. Apparently the sheeple haven't been the recipients of the helicopter loads of RESCUE green-backs that have been INJECTED into the SYSTEM yet and there is still plenty left to steal into the elite coffers at rock bottom prices before the inflation/stagflation deamon is again dramatically unveiled at some public ceremony directly following shorty after NOV 4 or otherwise DEC31 at best GUESS.
Regards, just ice
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
PS
Everything's back to front for me today.
I'll be quiet from now on.
You actually meant LONG USD not LONG EUR.
That I understand.
(Message edited by justice on October 17, 2008)
"The trouble is the banks don't trust each other." - That says it all!
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justice
Member
Username: justice
Post Number: 801
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| | Friday, October 17, 2008 - 12:18 pm: |
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Factoring in the expected Fed Rate Cut (%?)
end of month... anything could happen INCLUDING the expected.
"The trouble is the banks don't trust each other." - That says it all!
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1214
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 15, 2008 - 02:20 pm: |
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I can remember heated arguments on this forum (from ~2005 and before) about whether the market was in-fact in downtrend or uptrend, I have a better understanding of the subtlties of this discourse.
Each of us has a different timeframe and paradigm that suits our own trading style; from my perspective the primary trend in our market/s is still down with current consolidation forming a bear flag (could very well breakdown or provide the bounce that some are suggesting after late last week's "shakeout" move on the Dow...). By definition some of the equities that make up the index will be in short term up trend or downtrend whilst the index is going in one or other directions.
The indicators suggest the following to me about the direction of these indexes, and so the ultimate direction of most of our shares....
* The dow looks rangebound and like it could be about to change the trend (but not so convincing IMO).
* The SPX looks rangebound and to have confirmed the continued downtrend
* The all ords looks rangebound and to have confirmed the downtrend
Some might think it is too simplistic to look for red line being over the the green line (with confirmation of the other indicators) but if you had cared to follow it in the last 6 months you would not have gone too far wrong. Nevertheless, you are welcome to come to your own conclusions..
PS the banks are all looking pretty sick at the moment ~ several more $B writedowns look to be on the cards (both here and the US)
Happy trading DYOR
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 2087
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 16, 2008 - 02:06 pm: |
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Hi Tryhay,
I notice an extremely small volume for the last candle for the DOW on your chart compared for a large volume on the S&P500 for the same day. I wonder if that volume is wrong and it triggered a false signal on your lower indicator for the DOW.
In my IC charting software I get a similar volume for both indices.
"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"
- Andrew Lo
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1217
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 17, 2008 - 08:19 am: |
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Hi Rudy
rdumas wrote on Sunday, November 16, 2008 - 03:06 pm:I notice an extremely small volume for the last candle for the DOW on your chart compared for a large volume on the S&P500 for the same day
The ongoing discussion on the forum relating to metrics will never satisfactorilly be resolved, because the time of measurement is not fixed (some trades occur after closing and some are not captured in reported data). The data provider for the above posted chart/s provides rubbery figures until they run the "frequency modulator" (seems to be at a time after close that suits them). The chart below shows the currently reported volume data ~ significantly higher than that originally reported.
More importantly the Aroon is supposed to capture changes in trend (Developed by Tushar Chande in 1995 meaning "Dawn's Early Light"), and a valid change in trend results in the red or green line bouncing from the negative to positive area of the chart. See here for detail <http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:aroon#aroon_oscillator> The SPX & AORD look to be confirming downtrend and the INDU has provided a false indication IMO of uptrend ~ Santa clause rally may not be going to appear shortly (will be the second time in two years we have not had a "real" christmas rally). I seem to remember Colin is considering adopting Aroon in IC...
Current DOW chart:
I got a feeling the G20 participants would rather have not been made aware of current events in world economy ~ looking for more volatility this week....
Wonder what new provisions our banks will disclose when caught between rock & hard place....
Cheers
Happy trading DYOR
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 2092
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 17, 2008 - 01:42 pm: |
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Hi Tryhay,
I was only discussing that particular charting company yesterday with another trader. I wonder about the accuracy of its data. For example on the 10 October 2008 they show (in your chart) a low of 7773.71 and yet all other providers that I am aware of including IC has a low of 7882.5 for that day. That and the recent volume discrepancy gives me an uneasy feeling about the accuracy of their data at times.
"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"
- Andrew Lo
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1219
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 17, 2008 - 02:36 pm: |
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Hi rdumas
rdumas wrote on Monday, November 17, 2008 - 02:42 pm:For example on the 10 October 2008 they show (in your chart) a low of 7773.71 and yet all other providers that I am aware of including IC has a low of 7882.5 for that day
I get the impression that is why Colin does not favour the use of other charting packages on this forum (unless one removes the trademark name off the chart). I guess it cuts out some of the agro......
I see the DJIA INDEX is up ~ 62 points ATM - perhaps we are in for a itti bittie bounce around here...(if it don't then we are currently below support!)
Happy trading DYOR
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 543
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 17, 2008 - 07:59 pm: |
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Hi Rudy,
The 7773.71 figure is in IC as well - its the DJIA_in rather than the DJIAA_in we all use.
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 2095
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 18, 2008 - 07:18 am: |
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Hi Ken,
Where do I find the DJIA_in and in what exchange is it found? I've done a few searches but with no luck.
Aside from occasionally having slightly different daily bar values what is the difference between the two indices and when do they use one in preference to the other?
"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"
- Andrew Lo
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 2098
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 18, 2008 - 10:40 am: |
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Hi Ken,
Don't worry about my question in the previous post. I have just found the other Dow chart. For those who are interested the difference between the two indices is that the DJIAA_in is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Actual and the DJIA_in is the Dow Jone Industrial Average Theoretical.
The difference between the two indices is explained in the following paragraphs:
The DJIA_in uses a method of calculating a Dow Jones index that assumes all index components hit their high or low at the same time during the day.
The "theoretical Dow" uses the daily highs for all 30 Dow components to calculate the index high, and the lows to calculate the index low. In January of 1992, Dow Jones started using the "actual" method, which calculates the index at 10-second intervals throughout the day. Before this point, the theoretical calculation was the only way to compute the high and low of the index.
This method assumes that all stocks hit their high or low at the same time. Because this rarely happens, the theoretical high will almost always be higher than the actual, and the theoretical low will almost always be lower than the actual.
"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"
- Andrew Lo
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