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     ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 34
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - 10:45 am: | 
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Alann,
I think you can put me down for long term bear market - my chart was 10 years and the lower highs and lows were 3 and 4 years after the highest high. Also if oil depletion is related to the fall of the Dow to 400ish, this will be long term.
I also agree with bear market for medium term although all bear markets have rallies which can be medium term. I think we have to fall quite a bit further before the next rally.
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nicola
Member
Username: nicola
Post Number: 126
Registered: 06-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - 10:52 am: |
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thank you all for a most interesting discussion.
My opinion?
S/T Bearish
L/T Bullish
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 711
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - 12:21 pm: |
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A bob each way. I call short term bearish by definition, lower high and lower low,however it is ranging in a pennant pattern, consolidation. Long term, there is only one direction, NE. Interest rates is still very low, so bonds is not an alternative. Some of the money which has been channel into properties will have to go somewhere.We are waiting for the breakout.
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 992
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - 01:09 pm: |
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OK, it appears that I am in the minority here.
I am interested in how the bears would play the DJIAA index.
I am assume that if you are long term bearish, then you would be happy to short the market and then ride the trend till it ended.
So my next question is when would you enter and what would be your exit triggers?
Cheers,
Mosaic
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andrewk
Member
Username: andrewk
Post Number: 193
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - 06:50 pm: |
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I also consider it to be a ranging market currently.
With the wonderful benefit of hindsight analysis, would you have range traded it, or been short the whole time since the peak?
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macka
Member
Username: macka
Post Number: 77
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - 09:15 pm: |
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Gee, I love IC. So many great discussions and terrific posts from so many contributors.
The US market as I rudely inferred in an earlier post in my opinion has been in a downward trend during this year after a strong bull run over the previous twelve months. I also suspect that the Aus market will follow in due course. I think that the Aus market is currently "toppy" with both indicies and stocks trading in the top of their ranges.
So, as a short / medium term trader I don't think that either market is giving a clear indication of what to do.
I recall a thread early this year started by Hilarius as to whether we should try to predict or just react to the current trend.
I believe in the later ie react to the trend which means either:-
* Go long
* go short
or * play golf ( or trade options but as I am still gun shy from my options experiences I prefer the golf alternative )
So if I was in the US market I would play golf untill a more definite direction is established.
In the AUS market I believe keep your stop losses tight to protect your profits. eg Bluescope Steel.
Remember the right decision on most occasions is to do nothing. The Aus market has been great for long positions for the last 18 months. Perhaps during this toppy period it is time to stop and smell the roses (and play golf) whilst awaiting a clearer indication of future directions.
Regards...Macka...
(Message edited by macka on October 20, 2004)
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 408
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - 10:51 pm: |
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Given that we all have different views on timeframes, I have drawn where I see it over the next few years.
I should add that this is my optimistic view of the DOW.
I firmly believe that 7000 will be breached over the next 3 years as the US economy hits a speed bump:
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alann
Member
Username: alann
Post Number: 8
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 22, 2004 - 12:29 am: |
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I have updated the summary of the TA of DJIA based upon the POST's since my pervious summary as follows:
SUMMARY OF THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DJIA
| Author | Short Term Trend | Intermediate Term | Long Term Trend | | alann | Ranging | ---------- | ---------- | | mosaic1996 | Ranging | ---------- | Bull Market | | macka | Ranging | ---------- | ---------- | | andrewk | Ranging | ---------- | ---------- | | chance | Bear Market | ---------- | ---------- | | hilarius | Bear Market | ---------- | ---------- | | rederob | Bear Market | ---------- | Bear Market | | ken | Bear Market | ---------- | Bear Market | | peterloh | Bear Market | ---------- | Bull Market | | tony_m | Bear Market | ---------- | ---------- | | ann | ---------- | ---------- | Bull Market | |
Again if my summary is inaccurate please let me know either by private email or through a POST in this forum.
Alann,
I cannot predict the future I can only follow the trend. Why? Because the trend is my friend.
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alann
Member
Username: alann
Post Number: 9
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 22, 2004 - 01:27 am: |
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andrewK
In response to your question in your last POST "With the wonderful benefit of hindsight analysis, would you have range traded it, or been short the whole time since the peak?"
From the very first POST in this forum I identified the beginning of the current bear market as having started at flag #2. Also since the ADX is below both the -DI and the +DI this tells me that the market is also ranging. How can a market both range and trend at the same time? Well, it can and is, but that's for another discussion. In any market my trading plan is the same, wait for a pull back across the EMA and go long or short when the market weakens. I then trade in the opposite direction. I then hold that position until the market starts weakening again and then trade in the opposite direction again (My exact trading plan is a little more detailed but this is the basics). So to me I really don't care if the market is ranging or trending, the trading plan is the same. So all I have to do is identify the trend to determine if I go long or short. In this market I have identified by flag #2 that the market is bearish so I only trade in that direction. If Flag #2 would have been bullish I would have only traded in the direction of the bulls. If the ADX identified a ranging market and there were no bull or bear market confirmations (pivot point confirmations on the DMS chart) I would have traded both directions. But since flag #2 identified both a ranging market and a bear market I am currently only trading as a bear. To understand this more fully would be to have to explain my complete trading plan but again this is the basics and all that's needed to answer the question.
Alann,
I cannot predict the future I can only follow the trend. Why? Because the trend is my friend.
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 1000
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 22, 2004 - 11:34 am: |
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An from an Elder statesman the following......
an extract from Dr alexander Elder's newsletter...
Books & Trades #115
October 21, 2004
Dr. Alexander Elder
www.elder.com
THE TAIL END OF A BULL MARKET
For much of this year I have been bullish on the US stock market, seeing higher prices ahead and recommending holding. The events of the past two weeks have changed my mind, and I now think that the US stock market is in a major reversal phase. Making a major top is a slow process, punctuated by rallies. The idea is not to run and dump everything but to use those rallies for getting out of longs and into shorts, or at the very least mercilessly pruning weak long positions.
Earlier in October the bulls had their last great hurrah as the stock market broke out to a new recovery high, supported by group strength and the New High - New Low Index. All the indexes, such as the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P went green on their weekly and daily charts in terms of the Impulse System, a very rare occurrence.
For the past two weeks, the balance of industry groups has had a clear downtick. The New High – New Low Index has fallen back into its base. Many groups have turned down after completing false breakouts to new lifetime highs – a typical sign of a top.
We had a great bull market in 2003, with many stocks rising by the factor of 5, 7, 10, and even more. The action in 2004 was a lot more choppy, but overall still positive. This bull market is now almost two years old and headed into what is traditionally a bad year for stocks – the first year after the Presidential election, regardless of who wins (and there is a market predicting who will win – http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm )
Nobody can know the future, even the best analysts make mistakes. I own no crystal ball that lets me accurately see the future of the stock market. Still, I wanted you to have a clear message as to where I stand and how I position my own account.
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Still to early for me to call a change in primary trend.
Alann, I have two other questions if you have the time to respond.
a) you have covered your entry in broad terms. Could you cover you exits.
b) do you think that the DOW is the best place to trade at the moment. The range is relatively small, and the the decline fairly subdued. In other words, is there a strong trending (up or down) market, sector or individual share where your rate of return has the potential to be higher with less risk.
Cheers,
Mosaic
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hazluk
Member
Username: hazluk
Post Number: 154
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 22, 2004 - 01:12 pm: |
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Tonym & Rederob: Why the (very large) discrepancy in same day PE values for the DOW??
ie Tonym's - 'average PE for the DOW is currently 17.2'
Rederob - '(DOW)PE Ratio: 24.1'
What are your sources & I wonder (presuming they are from different sources) how they can be reconciled??
Hazluk - in appreciation of all your past contributions.
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 181
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 22, 2004 - 01:46 pm: |
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Hazluk, as I normally do I took the numbers from the Bigcharts website http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643
on the day of the post. Maybe there is a quantum error there, or we are not comparing apples with apples. e.g.The DOW PE from last night is 17.16?
If the PE's are higher as per Rederob's post then the correction required to get back to fair value is even more scary.
I recall snippets of Warren Buffet has been saying ever since the tech boom started that the markets are seriously overvalued and he went to the sidelines.
My view based on what I see in the DOW chart is that the US bear market started at the end of the 90's and the long term trend is down. A combination of the approaching Iraq war and leftover exuberance started the March 2003 rally which in my view was just a bear market rally, i.e. an interruption not a seachange.
The bear market has resumed and apart from sporadic mini rallies, continues. I would expect to see some sort of mini rally, possibly triggered by post election exuberance.
In my view the factor which tends to support the bear market assumption is the inexorable long term rise in the gold price.
Obviously I dont have a clue as to what will really happen and I hope the news is all positive.
The other really scary factor is that since Bill Clinton left, the US economy is in the hands of a bunch of dunces with self interest as their mantra and who seriously dont have a clue as to what is going on and continue to demonstrate this, particularly during the election rhetoric. It is a worry.... Tony_M
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iwillwin
Member
Username: iwillwin
Post Number: 11
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 22, 2004 - 02:08 pm: |
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Hi all,
i trade the dow using CMC spread betting.
my views are for day trading so they might not be of any use to those longer term traders.
in the past week the dow has dropped considerably and crude oil is still on the up over the $54 mark which to me means that if it carries on this way 8-9k could be the target? or worse?? thanks god for the ability to go long and short!
i say bearish at the moment break above 10,500 would signal to me the start of the bull trend, otherwise still down!
latest down trend started from 10,200...so wat do u think??
doesnt matter where it goes as long as your moving with it which is the bottom line!
cheerio troopers! 
iwillwin
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 416
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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