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     perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 162
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 18, 2004 - 06:42 pm: | 
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Since late last year I've been been running a perl program that at the end of each trading day gathers price data on the ASX300 stocks from yahoo and works out the percentage of ups minus the percentage of downs. I've been plotting this in XL. See attached.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 126
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 18, 2004 - 07:21 pm: |
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Nice work Perler
All that is needed now is to find a way to isolate the stocks that are outperforming the ASX 300, and contributing most to the advances
I am sure your perling will produce an interesting list
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 163
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 18, 2004 - 08:04 pm: |
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Hilarius.
I have used the plot as a measure of market sentiment. I'm also interested in its ability to predict movements in XJO. Notice how it predicted the decline that began on Monday 26th of April, by showing a huge divergence.
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spider
Member
Username: spider
Post Number: 1671
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 18, 2004 - 09:04 pm: |
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Yo p,
feel free to post an update from time to time.
It drives me nuts that I cannot get a chart for A/D.
Well done.
I will send out the word that none of your relatives are to be bitten in the forseeable future!
spider.
"The only time I really ever lost money was when I broke my own rules." - Jesse Livermore
"Which ever game you play, you do need to press the out button pretty quick if it has not done its deed." Scalper.
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 164
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 18, 2004 - 09:14 pm: |
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Eh Spider.
How about here for A/D line?
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AU%3AXAO&time=& freq=
(upper indicators, last selection)
I like mine better 
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ta_biased
Member
Username: ta_biased
Post Number: 21
Registered: 06-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 19, 2004 - 09:32 pm: |
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Pearler, nice work. Can you tell how you interpret the graph? I applied “standard” approach of drawing lines through troughs and the A/D line indeed was broken on 14/4 indicating possible change of trend direction. However, drawing a line through 26/2 trough would give a false signal… But it worked again giving correct signal on 21/5. As they say, there are many ways to skin the cat. And line signals on indicators or price charts can be a basis of a very successful trading system, if you know how to draw them…
Another question, I noticed your time series has a value for 14/6 which was a public holiday and hence there was no trading … Can you tell why did you decide to count that day? Inclusion doesn’t change the big picture although it flattens the graph a bit…
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 168
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, June 20, 2004 - 09:45 am: |
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Ta_biased. Hmm. I'm glad to see that you have discovered my deliberate mistake.  I prepared the data columns before I realized that 14/6 was a holiday and on the day I put a zero in there because I was feeling lazy. I've deleted the line now. Interpretation is a work in progress. Like you said. Sometimes lines work. Sometimes not. I like a strong signal like the divergence between the peaks on the A/D line and XJO on 23/4
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mikro
Member
Username: mikro
Post Number: 5
Registered: 06-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Tuesday, June 22, 2004 - 07:24 pm: |
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ta_biased, wrote: "Can you tell how you interpret the graph?"
I came across this Oddball system based on A/D data
http://www.oddballsystems.com/active.shtml
My opinion only, not advice or recomendation. I may hold positons in the equities or derivatives mentioned.
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bbq
Member
Username: bbq
Post Number: 21
Registered: 10-2003Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Wednesday, June 23, 2004 - 12:56 pm: |
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Hi Guys, interesting discussion you have going here. Have a look at Martin Prings KST indicator...it seems to track the XJO quite nicely. I'll post a image...have a look at the KST in mid March 04...seemed to pick the decline in sentiment quite early. Cheers BBQ.
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 182
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 25, 2004 - 06:15 pm: |
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Hi BBQ. I think that was just a lucky hit.
Here's my A/D line after another week. Not much change.
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bbq
Member
Username: bbq
Post Number: 23
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 26, 2004 - 10:38 am: |
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Perler59..."Just a lucky hit?"
I'm not sure about that...here's another example:
Have a look at the KST in mid Nov 01...topped out well before the double top of Feb/March 02. Cheers BBQ
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 186
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 26, 2004 - 10:56 am: |
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Hi BBQ. KST is based on price and time and ignores volume. It appears to mostly lag price action and occasionally predicts a fall, but how do we know when its predicting and when its just... lagging?
For the curious, here's the Amibroker code for it:
periods1 = 10;
periods2 = 15;
periods3 = 25;
periods4 = 30;
p1 = MA( ROC( Close, periods1), periods1);
p2 = MA( ROC( Close, periods2), periods1);
p3 = MA( ROC( Close, periods3), periods1);
p4 = MA( ROC( Close, periods4), periods2);
kst = p1 + 2 * p2 + 3 * p3 + 4 * p4;
Graph0 = kst / 10;
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squiresk
Member
Username: squiresk
Post Number: 144
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 26, 2004 - 03:02 pm: |
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OK,
Having a little think about this A/D line.
When there is a bearish divergence, i.e. When the ASX is rising, but the A/D is turning down, we can infer that..
either,
1. The heavyweights of the index are outperforming the Index. i.e NCP, CBA TLS and NAB are going up, pulling up the index, but a large amount of tiddlers are actually falling.
or,
2. The few risers are rising so much to be pulling up the index, which are outweighing the multitudes of decliners.
Personally I'd think its a combination of both, but probably a 80/20 ratio of No.1 / No.2
So assuming Its the banks pulling up the index, and these are normally the first to recover in markets, with the rest of the index constituents to follow, is this a fairweather signal for the market, seems a bit contradictory.
Hmm.
It would be interest to see how the A/D for the ASX 10, ASX 100, ASX 300 and the All Ords, compare with each other.
It would tell us, just who are the advancers.
Just my 2c, Kai.
"The combination of overconfidence and optimism is a potent brew, which causes people to overestimate their knowledge, underestimate risks and exaggerate their ability to control events.
It also leaves them vulnerable to statistical suprises."
Aspects of Investor Psychology - Daniel Kahnemann.
"Vah! Denuone Latine loquebar? Me ineptum. Interdum modo elebitur"
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bbq
Member
Username: bbq
Post Number: 25
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 26, 2004 - 04:25 pm: |
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Point taken Perler59...I don't use the KST as a definitive point of the trade...but rather use it to look for a divergence between it and price action as seen in the 2 examples.
Cheers BBQ
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bundy
Member
Username: bundy
Post Number: 245
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 26, 2004 - 10:49 pm: |
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