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Stagflation

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goldbug
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Tuesday, April 12, 2005 - 08:25 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm starting this thread because i for one find this form of flation intriguing.

What is it?
Slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment accompanied by a rise in prices (inflation).
When the economy isn't growing but prices are - not a good situation for a country to be in. This occurred to a great extent in the 1970s, when skyrocketing oil prices further slowed economic growth. The effects of inflation were made considerably worse by stagflation.

Is history repeating itself?
http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/oecon/chap3.htm
This link is well worth a read, it gives an overall picture of the US economy over the years and is a good guide to what maybe happening now... the bit i am referring to is:
The Vietnam War dragged on until 1975, President Richard Nixon (1969-1973) resigned under a cloud of impeachment charges, and a group of Americans were taken hostage at the U.S. embassy in Teheran and held for more than a year. The nation seemed unable to control events, including economic affairs. America's trade deficit swelled as low-priced and frequently high-quality imports of everything from automobiles to steel to semiconductors flooded into the United States.
The term "stagflation" -- an economic condition of both continuing inflation and stagnant business activity, together with an increasing unemployment rate -- described the new economic malaise. Inflation seemed to feed on itself. People began to expect continuous increases in the price of goods, so they bought more. This increased demand pushed up prices, leading to demands for higher wages, which pushed prices higher still in a continuing upward spiral. Labor contracts increasingly came to include automatic cost-of-living clauses, and the government began to peg some payments, such as those for Social Security, to the Consumer Price Index, the best-known gauge of inflation. While these practices helped workers and retirees cope with inflation, they perpetuated inflation. The government's ever-rising need for funds swelled the budget deficit and led to greater government borrowing, which in turn pushed up interest rates and increased costs for businesses and consumers even further. With energy costs and interest rates high, business investment languished and unemployment rose to uncomfortable levels.

Also i have included a link to an article at the time Greenspan started raising rates in the US.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/07/20/news/economy/greenspan/
He states that:
Though very few analysts believe "stagflation" -- a state in which inflation is high, even as economic growth is slow, as it was throughout much of the 1970s -- is in train, Greenspan said policy makers were aware of the risks of stagflation and trying to fight it.

"This is always our concern. Most of us lived through the stagflation of the 1970s. It was a very disconcerting experience," he said in response to a lawmaker's question.

But he added that sharply higher oil prices were the cause of stagflation in the '70s, and noted that current oil prices weren't nearly as high, adjusted for inflation, as they were then.



Since then Oil has climbed approx 30%.


This is just a start and i hope others will chip in with their 2 bobs worth...

Regards

GB


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hilarius
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Tuesday, April 12, 2005 - 09:49 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Goldbug

I am sure your "namesake" Gordon Brown has this well under control in the UK

As for Australia let us not breath a word against our dear little prime minister

Not for a moment would he rest on his laurels and take credit for an economic miracle generated by the energy of other people

Not for a moment would he substitute rhetoric for substance

Not for a moment would he encourage inflation of executive remuneration while setting the stage for ever lower pay at the bottom of the economic ladder ... so that more people might "benefit" from being employed on minimal wages.

Don't we realise it is our obligation to breed and work, preferably without stopping for the child care which makes the difference between a decent and a rapacious society?

Consuming and filling the Treasury are our duty to the brilliant political "managers" who are trying to extend "their" economic miracle with 19th century and 20th century infrastructure in a world which wants rapid growth at all costs

The sooner we realise we need to be a bigger and better quarry and a society that adds little value, the sooner we will understand our role ... to serve the developing world at the expense of those values of character and ingenuity that mark a really great and growing nation with more than economic skills and values

The small minded right wing will take credit for everything while contributing nothing and we should not be surprised if stagflation is their memorial

Blessings and Peace

Hilarius


US Stocks 15-minute delayed





I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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archer
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Tuesday, April 12, 2005 - 10:02 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If Greenspan = Mr Magoo
Then Howard = Mr Sheen oh Mr Sheen


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coyotte
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Stagflation :
lived through the 70,s and worked in the building game
very similar situation as we are now in except then it was more commercial and gov spending where as now its cottage constuction ---- building and constuction was booming (Sydney was awash with Favco cranes) and heaps of public works (dams, power stations and freeways ) ---- residential land was moderatly increasing in price but there was ample new land releases to keep the pressure off the boil

Japan was what China is today
Commodity prices soaring
Shortages of materials
Shortages of Labor
Drought
$au 1.10 = $us1.00 (fixed)
War against Communisim and the Veitnam War
The beginning of easy credit (Bankcard)

Then it STOPPED, i went for a holiday up Qld and came back a month later and work in Sydney had totally dried up

from that point on property prices went into rapid decline
to the point that in regonal areas you could pick up land just by paying the back rates

BUT allthough property prices had droped and unemployment had risen sharply, petrol prices skyrocketed (this is when
Malcom Fraser introduced world parity petrol prices for Aust and bought in the fuel levy)---- Basic household needs inflated --- morgage repayments increased --- and wages simply did not keep up wih it which bought about a drop in new car sales --- but house hold expediture inflation would make headline news ---- morgage sales began in earnest ( i picked up a parcel 8 vacant blocks for less than value of 1
three years prior )

Stagfation : of the 70s, Cash UP against hard assests
Cash DN against cost of living

by the early 80s, this all reversed !!



Coyotte}


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goldbug
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Tuesday, April 12, 2005 - 10:26 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius,

Stagflation could be the end of western style capitalism as we know it...

Not too sure if Gordon Brown has anything under control...all i know is that he doesn't get on with his boss...might have something to so with him selling all the BOE's gold off at bargain basement prices...

Regards

GB


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hilarius
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Tuesday, April 12, 2005 - 10:39 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GB

The profit motive is not a necessary ingredient of economic models ... non profit models abound ... body corporates ... clubs ... health funds ... hospitals ... schools ... universities ... councils ... governments ... the list goes on

Exporters will cling to the profit motive because of the behaviour of the rest of the world and the ability of exporters to exploit scarcity ... but efficiency can be measured in a host of different ways in the domestic economy ...

The Acts of the Apostles reveal that all shared and no one was in need

Proper reward for effort and use of capital does not depend of itself on a profit motive ... and contrary to popular opinion profit does not necessarily add to the free and fair distribution of goods

Thus there are farmers markets that ought increasingly to succeed against the price gouging of the super market chains ... but we are all too gullible and accepting of the supposed benefits of capitalism which increasingly separate the indecently wealthy from the rest of us

I have no complaints with what capitalism has done for me personally ... but I've seen enough of its inner workings to see that the benefits are frequently compromised by immorality and lack of social conscience

Hoping this helps Dovetree to make a profit from his long position in methane futures

Blessings and Peace

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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goldbug
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Wednesday, April 13, 2005 - 09:36 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good morning,

An extract from this mornings SMH on the interest rate conundrum:

"The interest rate debate rages on, with a business survey yesterday confirming the conflicting presence in the economy of slower growth and rising inflation."

'SLOWER GROWTH and RISING INFLATION'

The only thing missing from this equation with regard to stagflation is the very low employment level.
POO being at ATH's may soon fix this....
Watch the future employment figures...

The US recently came out with a pathetic employment figure ...the market for whatever reason chose to ignore this and focused on the feds interest rate tightening decision....giving the $US a temporary reprieve from its inevitable decline...

Regards

GB


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goldbug
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http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1112381913.php


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goldbug
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Pretty much sums it up....

"The Fed is caught," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. "The Fed would like to keep interest rates low to keep the economy moving, but on the other hand they have to fight against inflation."

Regards

GB


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goldbug
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nothings changed ....


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kate
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Goldbug

I'm glad you resurrected this thread.

I've been reading about stagflation and a couple of papers have argued that the oil shocks of the 1970s may have added to the problem but didn't cause it. It was purely the result of very loose monetary policy, the government was pouring money into the economy to stimulate it and all it did was to cause inflation which they then had to reverse.

Interesting that there was a commodities boom then too!

Regards
Kate


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bundy
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Monday, February 25, 2008 - 03:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There seems to be some confusion in terms - probably as a result of the reference to money.

Monetary policy is simply concerned with the manipulation of interest rates.

Prior to the $A being floated, monetary policy had two primary roles - to control inflation and maintain the exchange rate within a given band, mainly through open market operations, but also using interest rates.

So, for example, when the dollar dropped, an increase in interest rates - all other things being equal - would result in an increased demand for the $A, and the currency would appreciate vis-a-vis other currencies.

These days of course, interest rates are used solely to maintain inflation rates within the Reserve Bank's targeted 2-3% zone.

Why use interest rates?

Because it's the most effective way to bring about a reduction in demand-fueled inflation.

One of the problems is that it is slow acting - there are often long lags before interest rate increases bite to reduce aggregate demand - so the increases tend to be small, sit back and see, then increase again.

You don't want to overshoot with a big increase in one hit - it may not be necessary.

And you generally only know in hindsight how far is enough - so another reason for incremental increases.

The problem over recent years has been that the Reserve Bank has been warning of inflationary pressure building up in the economy, and when they didn't ease, we naturally had interest rate increases.

The problem was compounded by the then Liberal Government adopting an expansionary policy in the face of the Reserve Bank's warnings and attempts to curb excessive demand increases.

How did they do that?

But talking up the economy and pumping more money into people's hands - thus encouraging them to spend while the Reserve Bank was trying to do the opposite.

The situation might not have been so bad if the Government had invested in, and encouraged, expansion of productive capacity to meet this extra demand - but it didn't - it sat back and applauded itself on what a great job it was doing - when it fact it was doing absolutely nothing.

One of the features of Fiscal Policy is that it has what they call automatic stabilizers built in.

What this means is that when the economy is running hot, tax takings increase and take some of the heat out of the economy - and the Government of the day racks up big budget suplusses.

When things slow down, and tax receipts drop and welfare and other transfer payments increase - the accumulated surplus finances the necessary deficit to even out the cyclical fluctuations every economy goes through.

The previous Government aborted this policy and neutralized the automatic stabilizing effect of Fiscal Policy.

Why?

Well, I think there are three reasons:
1. They simply didn't get it.
2. They believed their own BS
3. They used tax cuts to shore up their falling popularity in the polls and abandoned prudent economic management for short-term political gain.

The end result is that we now have to endure more pain through higher, and more frequent, interest rate rises that would have been the case if Fiscal Policy had been applied in a responsible manner.

The current Government seems to understand the predicament, and while it is locked in to tax cuts as a result of it's election promises, it has announced that it intends to make cuts in other areas of Government spending so that the fiscal effects of it's budget will be neutral - not expansionary as it was under the previous Government - thereby giving monetary policy a chance to work to curb demand-driven inflation.

The unfortunate thing about all this is that while all people benefit from tax cuts - albeit unevenly - only a proportion of the population - mainly businesses and those with outstanding loans - primarily housing loans - have to carry the burden for the excesses of the previous Government.

This involves a further redistribution of wealth within society and widens the gap between the "haves" and "have nots" - which was the hallmark of the pervious Government.


---
Bundy

Good judgment is gained through experience.
Experience is gained through poor judgment.

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easymoney
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Bundy,
I don't wish to sound disrespectful of one as highly regarded as yourself, but your analysis above reads like something out of the current ALP handbook.

Have inflationary pressures been building in other countries as well? If so, have those countries also been the victims of misguided governments or is there a broader pattern?


Two of them say they're Jesus.
One of them must be wrong.

Industrial Disease
Dire Straits

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colin_twiggs
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I would also be interested in your opinion as to who is responsible for money supply (M3) growth of 13 to 14 percent.

Regards,
Colin


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bundy
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easymoney,

I know what it sounds like - and I was mindful of the fact when I posted my message.

But the simple fact is that it's a fair analysis - it's not mine alone.

For example, check out Ross Gittens in the Sydney Morning Herald - over the last couple of weeks - he has been spruiking the same line.

Most post-election economic analysis has been along the same lines - the Libs sat on their hands while the economy needed them to have their hands on the steering wheel.

Even the Libs are fessing up to it now that the dust has settled.

As for inflationary pressures overseas - most significantly, China, for example, has double digit inflation - and is taking steps to limit the availability of funds by restricting borrowings.

But what's happening overseas doesn't really have that much relevance to our situation at the moment.

Our appreciating dollar has largely protected us from any imported inflation - even the impact of rising oil prices have been dampened by the appreciating $A.

The root of our problem is excess demand and insufficient productive capacity to meet that demand - much of it which cannot be fulfilled by imports - like services.

This has been compounded by the resources boom - generating an influx of overseas funds to fuel domestic demand - hence feeding into the inflationary pressure building domestically.

Because of the ever-increasing demand for our resources - these industries can't slow down - so they will compete for scarce resources and cause disproportionate suffering (contraction) in other industries and put further pressure on productive capacity.

The only way to counter this is to tighten Fiscal policy and reign in demand through interest rate increases.

It's not rocket science - at least not to any half-competent economist - which makes the actions of the previous Liberal Government even more reprehensible - especially in the face of warnings from within both the bureaucracy and from the Reserve Bank.


---
Bundy

Good judgment is gained through experience.
Experience is gained through poor judgment.

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bundy
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Colin,

You and your money supply again. :-)

Didn't we hav this same conversation a few years ago.

Money supply has to expand to accomodate a growing economy - else we have a credit squeeze.

It's a symptom of growth in our case - not the cause of inflation in itself - although in cases - with no growth, it certainly will be the primary cause of inflation. Some of the African countries are good examples - and the growth in money supply with no backing of increased production has resulted in galloping inflation and a deteriorating currency.

That's certainly not our situation.

On top of this - we've have a global liquidity squeeze - reflected in higher wholesale loan rates - and subsequently a necessary easing of liquidity requirements on banks to bail them out of their problems.


---
Bundy

Good judgment is gained through experience.
Experience is gained through poor judgment.

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ken
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Colin, Easymoney, Bundy,

Have a look at this article by Peter Schiff of "Irrational Exuberance" fame. He argues that it is America's exporting of inflation that is causing the problems.


http://www.safehaven.com/article-9531.htm


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colin_twiggs
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Tuesday, February 26, 2008 - 10:33 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bundy,
Give a man a hammer and every problem will resemble a nail .

So if GDP is growing at 3 to 4% we should see money supply grow at a similar rate?

Ken,

Thanks. I have read the article. The US has certainly fuelled the inflationary climate by flooding the market with cheap money.

Regards,
Colin


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philr
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Another old saying:

If you can't fix it with a hammer, you need a bigger hammer.


Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
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