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     eblode
Member
Username: eblode
Post Number: 423
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 02, 2007 - 09:38 am: |  
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PERLER59,
In layman's language what is the interpretation of the that 5th Elliot wave? What is the meaning of June 12th? Is the market going to tumble after that date or what? Will be interesting to see what the results of the 5th wave produce.
Eugenio
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 977
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 02, 2007 - 10:20 am: |
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Eugenio, for answers to your questions, follow the two links in this post:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=6&post=112958#PO ST112958
INCREDIBLE OFFER - only $12 USD per month
30 day FREE trial -
Download Here
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http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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moleman
Member
Username: moleman
Post Number: 266
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 06, 2007 - 11:32 pm: |
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Bit of a worry...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/06/cnmorgan106.xm l
Morgan Stanley issues triple sell warning on equities
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 1:34am BST 06/06/2007
Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.
Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a sell signal
Morgan Stanley warns the 'mid-cycle rally is over'
Teun Draaisma, chief of European equities strategist for the US investment bank, said the triple warning was a "very powerful" signal that had been triggered just five times since 1980.
"Interest rates are rising and reaching critical levels. This matters more than growth for equities, so we think the mid-cycle rally is over. Our model is forecasting a 14pc correction over the next six months, but it could be more serious," he said. Mr Draaisma said the MSCI index of 600 European and British equities had dropped by an average of 15.2pc over six months after each "Full House" signal, with falls of 25.2pc after September 1987 and 26.2pc after April 2002. "We prefer to be on the right side of these odds," he said.
The first of the three signals Morgan Stanley monitors is a "composite valuation indicator" that divides the price/earnings ratio on stocks by bond yields. It measures "median" share prices that capture the froth of the merger boom, rather than relying on a handful of big companies on the major indexes.
"If you look at all shares, the p/e ratio is at an all-time high of 20," he said.
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The other two gauges measure fundamentals such as growth and inflation, as well as risk appetite. "Investors are taking far too much comfort from global liquidity. Markets always return to fundamental value, so people could be in for a rude awakening. This is the greater fool theory," he said. "The trigger may be rate rises by the Bank of Japan, or a widening of credit spreads. There are lots of little triggers."
Morgan Stanley is not predicting a recession, believing bond yields will fall during a correction and act as an "automatic stabiliser" for the world economy. Once the market shakes off the latest excesses, it's back to the races.
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 979
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 09, 2007 - 03:18 pm: |
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Looks like June the 4th was the top, rather than the 12th. See the 2nd chart in my post 974 above.
Edit:
http://elliottwave.hudlass.com/Weekly.htm
(Message edited by perler59 on June 09, 2007)
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 623
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, June 10, 2007 - 08:28 am: |
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Hi perler59,
That elliottwave reference is clear in its assessment: presently I can not see an impulsive wave down on the daily chart yet. But I do notice that the short term support from the 6th March 07 has become resistance on the 4th June (chart attached).
Daily chart: Colin's Trading Diary suggests the breakout from current consolidation is perhaps more likely to be downwards based on divergence and chart pattern
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 457
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, June 10, 2007 - 11:37 am: |
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Colin,
Looks like Friday's XAO bar needs adjustment of its open price - its the same as the day before.
By the way, I was going to post on the broadening top in the XAO - I agree completely but I was surprised to see in Bulkowski's chart pattern encyclopedia that the the pattern can break either way, and once it breaks it is 96% reliable.
Ken
Regards,
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 2914
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, June 11, 2007 - 07:30 am: |
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Ken,
I have asked our data suppliers to adjust this.
We are still busy implementing the new MySQL updater that should prevent this.
Regards,
Colin
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 651
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 01, 2007 - 10:02 pm: |
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Short term support (over 8 months) is presently being tested. At the same time there appears to be a bend at the end of the price action ~ I guess you could describe it as distribution.
I don't see much point in opening many new positions (yes some equities are still in strong uptrend) until the direction of the index is a bit clearer. The 100D_MA may provide support but if the MACD and the RSI don't improve their looks soon then the bend at the end may just do its dirty work!
Daily chart: 6200 looks like important support ATM
Any comment?
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 983
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 02, 2007 - 09:36 am: |
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Mc Laren is calling for a fast drop soon, triggered by S&P500 closing below 1487, followed by a lower top on 19th or 27th of July, and a down trend for several (4?) months.
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 654
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 02, 2007 - 10:06 am: |
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Interesting comment perler59,
couple of years of the S&P500 index is posted below and the bend/s at the end of the short term rally are shown. I have not seen a close below 1487, but that is where the interim support is shown & it has been touched on up days but with increased volatility perhaps will be breached one day soon.
S&P500 index Daily Chart: 300 D MA seems to pull up most consolidation.
Indicators are not looking too flash on either index
(Message edited by tryhay on July 02, 2007)
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 569
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 03, 2007 - 12:08 am: |
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The US markets have had every 'reason' to go down but nothing much has happened. Terrorist attacks in london, Low doc loan crisis, the end of cheap finance from Japan etc etc. I think the smart money is buying the market.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2448
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 03, 2007 - 12:30 am: |
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What would be a valid reason for buying?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2746
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 03, 2007 - 01:26 am: |
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hilarius,
Three months ago, it was said that Dow has topped, but the last quarter DOW's return is 8.5% and S & P is 5.5%.Go with the flow.
Cheers
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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fibonacci
Member
Username: fibonacci
Post Number: 192
Registered: 10-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 04, 2007 - 10:24 am: |
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Good morning all,
It appears to me that the current trading range in XAO is changing shape -from a broadening pattern [avoiding the word "top" after Ken enlightened us], to a symmetrical triangle as it missed touching both resistance and support lines. I believe that this has an even greater probability of being a continuation pattern. Ken?
...or a rectangle?
I can think or several logical [to me] reasons why we could/should falter now/soon but more than two years ago I recall its being metaphorically labelled a "runaway train" and you don't stand in front of them. Elder, McLaren, Morgan Stanley and others might obviously prove to be right but contrarians would look for virtually 100% consensus on continued rises before becoming, well, contrarian. Wouldn't they?
Are they actually increasing the chances of further rises?
From 01July-31Dec, the last four years, on the 200 have recorded gains of 8.5%, 14.6%, 11.7% and 11.3%.
I'm with you peterloh, I'm not standing on the train tracks just yet!
John
You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 2954
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 04, 2007 - 11:24 am: |
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Fibonacci,
The pattern could be either a broadening top or a rectangle. Where there is doubt over the actual formation it is probably safest to wait for a breakout above the high or low (i.e. treat it as a rectangle).
Regards,
Colin
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 664
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 06, 2007 - 11:47 am: |
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The pattern on the XAO is becoming more interesting: the chart below shows some short term overhead resistance perhaps coming into play. I wonder how long before it breaks through the resistance.
Chart: the notion of HH & HL is not being considered yet: at a minimum looks like an inside day perhaps setting up LL
On another matter I am saddened by the news about suemac, and am thinking of the family.
(Message edited by tryhay on July 06, 2007)
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 682
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 10, 2007 - 09:47 am: |
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Another view of current events FWIW
Daily XAO chart: Here is hoping that it decides to stay on the right side of the tracks
Some indicators are already suggesting that it will....
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 695
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 28, 2007 - 09:40 am: |
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My Goodness,
Trusting that one didn't top up yesterday DoH! Looks like the world markets decided to stay on the wrong side of the tracks (as the chart below shows).
That 200 Day MA is looming large in the sights (and has not been tested for over 12 months). I wouldn't be surprised if we had a bounce on tuesday (off ~6050, but who in their right mind would know for real), but the magnet looks to have taken control of the XAO and some more porridge is ready to be dished out.
Daily chart:
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 990
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 28, 2007 - 10:47 am: |
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Lets us all remember that this year ends in a SEVEN  Take a look at a chart of the DJIA exactly 50 years ago (1957). The similarities are disturbing. A 38.2% retrace of the XAO move up from the low of 2666 in march 2003, is 5016. A 50% retrace is 4567. Could we be close to 5000 by late October? Is it possible? I think so! We may even be at the 50% level by then, after all, it was as recent as December 2005, that we passed through that level on the way up.
The bears have to be right some time ...
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 698
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 28, 2007 - 11:30 am: |
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Hi Perler,
Interesting perspective on your chart. To be clear I am not recommending people go long on Monday pm or Tuesday, and I certainly did not buy the bargains yesterday. What I do should not affect other's trading ....
I hope your scenario does not in fact play out ~ however it is good to be reminded of the worst case which may just influence trading decisions made.
Yes there is a legitimate case to be made for various trading styles: bears, bulls and a combination of both - provided one applies feedback correction when the plan falls over (as may just happen to the detriment of one's $$$$)
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 52
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 30, 2007 - 09:45 am: |
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weekly projections - 30th july / 3rd aug 2007
the fall was visible in last weeks table itself when short entry was triggered. pl have a careful look not only ay xao but all other important indexes. they wl hv a bearing on xao in any case.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 701
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 04, 2007 - 01:17 pm: |
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Well the market is leading a merry chase lately
Looks like a market 'fake out' reported in Post Number: 682 and the 200 DMA is firmly in sight; and perhaps lower (as the chart below suggest). Couple of weeks ago one would have been accused of dreaming ~ but more like a nightmare now.....
Daily chart:
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 991
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 04, 2007 - 02:14 pm: |
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Tryhay, I noticed this morning that DJT broke down from its recent range and closed about 1.5% below its 200MA, but DJI hasn't followed it ... yet. I wonder if it will follow on Monday night? We could see three big red days here, taking us to, say, 5600? My current position is: Not Long, and kicking myself for not being Short!
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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tbreak
Member
Username: tbreak
Post Number: 112
Registered: 06-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, August 05, 2007 - 03:10 pm: |
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Hi Peter,
DJT did you mean DJTAA in IC. DJTAA can sometimes go below a 200 EMA before rebounding.
Same with the DJIAA
Same with the S&P 500
Where the XAO trends to stay above it.
Not sure what it all means for shorting at the moment.
(Message edited by Tbreak on August 05, 2007)
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 59
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, August 06, 2007 - 02:32 am: |
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weekly projections - major indices - 6th / 10th august 2007
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 704
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 08, 2007 - 04:17 pm: |
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I guess the relevant question is "does this bounce have legs"? The attention span of the market is similar to some nationalities I am aware of..... Perhaps the sub prime/intrest rate stuff was not really worth mentioning in the first place....
I am not yet topping up just to see the index bounce off resistance (the old support).
6 month Chart Not yet looking inviting enough and not interested in day trading
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 62
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, August 13, 2007 - 10:11 am: |
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weekly projections - world indices - 13th / 17th august 20007
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hailoh
Member
Username: hailoh
Post Number: 247
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, August 13, 2007 - 06:38 pm: |
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Since the XAO/XJO both tend to follow the US leader, it is interesting to look at the S&P index over the past five years.
Each major retracement has concluded with the weekly candle intersecting the lower Bollinger line (2 SD from the exponential MA).
A little way to go with this episode yet?
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tbreak
Member
Username: tbreak
Post Number: 113
Registered: 06-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, August 14, 2007 - 12:18 am: |
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That is really cool
Other times I have looked at the S&P the bounces looked all over the place.
Looks even better on the closes 
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miike
Member
Username: miike
Post Number: 3
Registered: 06-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, August 14, 2007 - 10:41 am: |
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Looks like a double bottom to me...any opinions, could be positive her on in, new highs in the next 2 months?
always.....dyor
....dyor
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tbreak
Member
Username: tbreak
Post Number: 114
Registered: 06-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, August 14, 2007 - 11:06 am: |
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A Double bottom or an inverted Flag? 
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miike
Member
Username: miike
Post Number: 4
Registered: 06-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, August 14, 2007 - 02:03 pm: |
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Quite debatable, however either way it shows a positive indication that is a continuation of the uptrend starting in 2003!
...dyor
....dyor
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 68
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, August 20, 2007 - 12:09 am: |
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weekly levels - major indices
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 3011
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 24, 2007 - 09:32 am: |
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tryhay,
If you click the [1] button to the left of the price chart, you can save the chart without the indicator slots.
Regards,
Colin
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 712
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 24, 2007 - 08:49 pm: |
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Hi Colin
Thanks for the advice!
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 71
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 03, 2007 - 11:38 am: |
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weekly levels - 3rd / 7th sep 2007
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sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 75
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 10, 2007 - 09:57 am: |
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weekly levels - 10th / 14th september 2007
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 887
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 13, 2008 - 06:23 am: |
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This thread has been quite lately....
Potential head and shoulders pattern on XAO; no break of the neckline just yet, but the candle on friday does not look +ve, reduced volume on the last peak, certainly has the downward sloping neckline (being a more reliable as a signal) & now the wrong side of the 200D_MAs with volatility increasing.....
Daily chart: certainly not an attractive picture (most indicators looking poorly ~ potential target approx. 5500
Happy trading DYOR
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 1004
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 13, 2008 - 10:28 am: |
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Tryhay,
McLaren is expecting a major 1st 1/4 2008 low in S&P500 "that could be much lower than 1200". 1180 is the 50% level of the entire bull move since 2002. On XAO that's 4780!
http://ttc.net.au/~stever
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sittingduck
Member
Username: sittingduck
Post Number: 45
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 08:50 pm: |
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tryhay,
Doesn't the head need to be above the shoulders???
on the other hand there is a definite 5 bear waves shown on your chart starting at your out of place left shoulder. So maybe ready for a short term up trend again.
Cheers
SittingDuck
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 895
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 09:16 pm: |
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Hi sittingduck
A dogmatic approach to charting patterns is difficult to apply: charts do not always reflect the text book model. FWIW colin's model is demonstrated here: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/head_and_shoulders.htm. I agree there is a gap between the model and the reality but such is life sittingduck
You may just be right ~ but the chart will shortly demonstrate the outcome appropriate to the pattern. One can not simply apply charting patterns in isolation and expect to be successful in trading, I have not seen one positive indicator to suggest the XAO is not going to follow the H&S identified ~ but if you find one sittingduck you might care to post it.
IMO one would not want to be holding one's breath until the outcome is confirmed.....
(Message edited by tryhay on January 16, 2008)
Happy trading DYOR
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sittingduck
Member
Username: sittingduck
Post Number: 47
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 17, 2008 - 09:22 pm: |
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Tryhay,
I agree with the overall direction (my super is fully cashed out and has been since November, at least I have that option with my employee fund most don't).
As to the head and shoulders from Colin's page you linked "A head and shoulders pattern consists of a peak followed by a higher peak and then a lower peak with a break below the neckline".
Your chart shows the start of a down trend based on lower lows and lower highs.
Just a small point, in the end it's about our own perception of the information provided by the chart, and I don't think we will find too many bulls at the moment. Good luck.
Cheers
SittingDuck
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 902
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 20, 2008 - 02:21 pm: |
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I wonder how valid this chart is on future events? Perhaps another 12 months and we will see a H&S pattern here....
Daily XAO Chart: The literature talks about rounding tops and perhaps that is what is occurring with XAO? I will not be surprised to see a bounce in the XAO (say by 5,500) ~ even though GWB's plan for boosting the economy does not seem to be focused on the right drivers: the ones that are going to ameliorate the sub prime mortgage mess..... but in many ways that will be seen as the legacy of his presidency IMO
anyone else been thinking about the prognosis here?
(Message edited by tryhay on January 20, 2008)
Happy trading DYOR
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easymoney
Member
Username: easymoney
Post Number: 98
Registered: 03-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 20, 2008 - 04:07 pm: |
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Tryhay wrote: I have not seen one positive indicator to suggest the XAO is not going to follow the H&S identified.
Neither have I, but my understanding was that a completed H&S was a leading indicator of what is to follow rather than an end in itself.
On the scale of the chart immediately above, a very optimistic bull would say that it shows a higher high, but not yet a lower low. The pessimist would say the lower low will be here this week!
I'd say that the chart further up shows a clear series of lower lows and lower highs. That's the one that's most important to me.
(Message edited by easymoney on January 20, 2008)
Two of them say they're Jesus.
One of them must be wrong.
Industrial Disease
Dire Straits
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 903
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 20, 2008 - 05:51 pm: |
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Good points easymoney.
easymoney wrote on Sunday, January 20, 2008 - 05:07 pm:Tryhay wrote: I have not seen one positive indicator to suggest the XAO is not going to follow the H&S identified. My point here is the indicators are negative and the H&S estimated target from post # 887 was 5,500
Neither have I, but my understanding was that a completed H&S was a leading indicator of what is to follow rather than an end in itself. so I'm looking to be ready if the xao trend reverses soon ~ when 5,500 has been achieved
Easymoney - it doesn't have to be a lower low at this stage, it could be a double bottom (from the august low) and then who knows ~ that is where one's thinking cap is required.......
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 918
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, February 08, 2008 - 07:37 am: |
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With the recent volatility on the US markets & the unconvincing rallies all over, one's strategy must be to trade the rallies and short the sell offs ~ unless you're sitting on cash & you're hands.
Looks like 5,500 will be broken (without a bounce) so hold onto your hat Harry IMO ......
Daily chart: 200 Day moving average looks to have rolled over, so Colin's target of 4,800 looks to be occurring as we speak. TMF looks ready to bounce off the MA and proceed to lower climbs.
The wheel chair doesn't seem to have slowed the Capt. down ~ don't know where he pulled MAK out of but there ain't many of them around presently ~ however EGO may just be forming a pennant for next leg up.....
Happy trading DYOR
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3002
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 11, 2008 - 01:41 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Deano
Here Comes the Wind!
Salute and Gods' speed
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on February 11, 2008)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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figjam2
Member
Username: figjam2
Post Number: 6
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 11, 2008 - 03:45 pm: |
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perler59
Your A/D charts for both the USA and Oz markets look moderately bullish to me. Or am I looking at them through rose-tinted spectacles?
I'm thinking about re-entering the market on the next big down day.
cheers
figgy
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 1008
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 12, 2008 - 09:19 am: |
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figjam, I think that going long now is high risk, but I also think that going short now is high risk, so I'm doing nothing
McLaren may help. He's always worth reading.
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/169/1/February-06-2008-CNBC-Po werlunchnetau/Page1.html
http://ttc.net.au/~stever
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figjam2
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| | Tuesday, February 12, 2008 - 12:15 pm: |
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Where's your sense of adventure, perler? I've got to pick bottoms, because I can't pick tops. But I'll keep tight stops.
Good luck
figgy
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perler59
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Username: perler59
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| | Thursday, February 14, 2008 - 01:50 pm: |
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Figgy, the fog in the crystal ball is clearing
I hope we get a false break below the January low.
That would be sweet!
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/170/1/February-13-2008-CNBC-SQ UAWKBOX-EUROPE/Page1.html
http://ttc.net.au/~stever
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hailoh
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Username: hailoh
Post Number: 255
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| | Thursday, February 14, 2008 - 05:27 pm: |
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Perler,
Colin very impressively called the recent sharp and deep decline and now describes the US as a bear market.
If, as McClaren suggests, there will be a major advance for a period of 45 days after the present consolidation or possible dip to near the January low, that could still keep the bear market intact, and represent a typical bear market rally to near the 30 or 50 week MAs.
This is where I see DJIA at present (using DJIA as a proxy for XAO in this thread)
The gap between current prices and the two key MAs is large enough to accomodate a move to or just beyond the 50 week MA within a two month time interval. This is entirely consistent with movements in a bear market.
So I think you are right - the fog is clearing. What happens after the 50 week MA has been crossed will certainly tell the future tale. I am backing a continuing bear market.
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sway
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Username: sway
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| | Thursday, February 14, 2008 - 05:55 pm: |
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Hailoh
Here are my semi-objective estimates of where the US markets will be by mid year http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/6/1405685.html#POST131310
So far, my "Realistic" scenario seems to be holding up. I realise that the Dow is not the entire US market, and that the S&P500 would be more appropriate, but there's no way I was going to do a full evaluation of 500 stocks. 30 was enough. Besides, the Dow and S&P track each other within 5% or so, so that's good enough for me.
To summarise, I'm calling the Dow to be about 12,200 by mid year. The S&P should be about 1340.
Sway
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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza
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| | Thursday, February 14, 2008 - 07:22 pm: |
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Ahoy Brave and Loyal Crew
HOLDING COURSE NE (6100-6200) in fair wind and seas
Patience is Everything
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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hailoh
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Username: hailoh
Post Number: 256
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| | Friday, February 15, 2008 - 04:25 pm: |
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The charts seem to show there is a bit of a current running in this area that might upset the trim of the sails for while until it's cleared.
You're the navigator, Captain, but I remember getting involved with a sea of bubbling little waves in the China Straits off Samarai once when I was in not much more than a tinny, and I retain the greatest respect for currents.
2008
1990
1981
Give this one a week or three to sort itself out first before the NE run??
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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza
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| | Friday, February 15, 2008 - 05:34 pm: |
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Ahoy Sea-Cadet Hailoh
As a seaman you would be very aware that
"Not all ships rise in the tide"
ie: Flow with the Tide
There are always currents ,under-currents, winds and seas to contend with
Did you know?
That a lot of The Leading Resource classes of Sails
ie: Energy + Materials are now nearly up >30% off their lows on average and some are more
What the XAO needs to do now is Diminish the weighting of the Banks and Financial Classes of sail by reducing their prices, as they are doing quite nicely at the moment and put more weight on the Resource Classes of sail
Which is they are also doing quite nicely at the moment
The problem as I see it is when do we tack from Resources to Banks?
We yachties including (Most Fund managers} never seem to have enough money to hold onto both classes of sail all the time
That sort of nonsense is Only reserved for Strong Bull Markets (which are very rare)
It would take a superman to figure out the ASX weighting in dollars terms when the Banks go South far enough and the resources go North far enough to influence the XAO
In the meantime I like to use the old seaman's tale
"Wherever BHP Goes, So Goes the market"
Salute and Gods' Speed
PS;Ahoy Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie 
Thanks Sea-Cadet Officer Katie for that Aluminium (AWC) idea yesterday
Captain Empty-head had forgotten all about Aluminum in his Supa-Ship the "HMAS Bear Hunter"
I owe you one!
PPS: I have 20 movies recorded to watch over the week-end
This will certainly test my stamina and resolve
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 934
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| | Sunday, February 17, 2008 - 06:31 am: |
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I see some resistance for both BHP & XAO before I'm confident they are both headed higher (yes they will head higher eventually, but the demonstrated resistance needs to be breached before I believe in that outcome), and IMO the charts below show this more clearly.
BHP Daily: is currently battling with the 200D_MA and some negative divergence on the MACD signal line ~ so I'm expecting a return to ~$31; otherwise if the zero line is broken then BHP is likely to be off to the races otherwise (I'm not holding my breath for this positive scenario though)
XAO daily: Demonstrated negative divergence on the MACD signal line and as Colin’s newsletter says just as likely to test 5200, if not a spot lower.
I will become more bullish when both BHP & XAO break out of the resistance, Till then I'm sitting on substantially cash with some selected short shorts
Happy trading DYOR
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captain_chaza
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| | Sunday, February 17, 2008 - 09:31 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Tryhay
Where do you get this foolish notion that the XAO is the measure of Seaworthiness on the ASX
I think you may have been reading too many old text books written and repeated by babbling idiots
I prefer to Study "Paralysis by Analysis" and act with out hesitation
Life is too short to think
As a novice Sea-Cadet we used to say
"Think or Sink?"
You evidently have never sailed one of the Great Rivers on this Globe?
What you would have learnt is that
"Only Dead fish swim with the stream all the time?"
If you study your own charts above
with a vertical ruler which I have asked Admiral Colin to introduce many times you can clearly see that BHP lead this latest SE'ly downturn in the XAO
Surprise, Surprise!
What you will find is
The Charts never lie!
and then by simple deduction
Only sweet FA'ers Lie and they Lie all the time!
I used to think only "Misery loves Company"
BUT I now have learnt and expanded that group to include those with
"Paralysis by Analysis"
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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ingot54
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Post Number: 2098
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| | Sunday, February 17, 2008 - 10:17 pm: |
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Tryhay
Don't take it personally - "babbling idiots" don't get textbooks published, and there is nothing "foolish" in the "notion" that the XAO is a measure of the state of health of the ASX.
It is accepted by people who have billions to invest on the Stock Exchanges in the US that the S&P500 is a better measure than the DOW of the state of health of the NYSE.
I can confidently say this because the exchanges are not just comprised of Blue Chips or mid-caps and small caps, but the rubbish stocks that some gamble with as well - albeit segregated into their separate Indices (including the Russell Index and so on).
So you can be certain that there are many who understand the importance of using the XOA as a useful Index - not everyone is oriented this way.
I like the idea of comparing BHP with the XAO because some conclusions can be drawn here:
BHP makes up 9.7% of the XAO (and between 40% and 45% of the Resources and Materials Sectors) so it is a bit skewed to the heavy side when expecting BHP to shed light on a future direction of the XAO.
It used to be said (if by no one else, then I'll claim the quote) that BHP plus the banks are a proxy for the XAO. But given the state of the XFJ at the moment I would tend to disagree with myself! 
My weekly charts included below should give a much clearer view as to the direction of the XAO - and if you can mentally divorce the influence of both BHP and the XFJ from the XAO it might shed some light on what the other components of the index are up to.
There may be more to gain as well from an examination of the 12 components (? at last count) of the GICS indices. But that may be a study for another time ... another thread.
In the meantime thanks for an objective comparison of the Big Australian with its Parent Index.
I would like to read your take on the same charts but on WEEKLY values - given that the market is probably read better on weekly charts as opposed to the dailies for purposes of comparison at this stage of their evolution.
My Rainbow charts are useful for visual people like myself who can assess more quickly when confronted with a picture.
My take on it is this:
BHP and the XAO are "probably" at their nadir or past it (ie improving now - early rallies) and the XFJ still has a way to fall.
On an unrelated note: Given the current yields I would be looking for a sign of recovery in the banks, or at the very least have them on my watch-list for signs of a bottom, for a very long term investment. Even if they remain in this parlous state for 6 months or more - there could not be a better time to get into a nice weighting on the Financials side of the portfolio.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3015
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| | Sunday, February 17, 2008 - 10:59 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Tryhay
Please notice in the Techni-colour kids charts above
They are not so different than mine
As you can see
There are really only 4 strategic moving averages
The spin of colour (Guppy-Techni-Colour) of all the in-betweens is truly spectacular to say the least
Which colour or shade of colour these babbling idiots buy or sell /react on is simple
They don't!
Because it is all to vague for them to act!
These charts are in essence the worst charts to gain an edge from I have ever seen
but I do admit
I love the colours!
Once again we see an example of
"Paralysis by Analysis"
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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ingot54
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Username: ingot54
Post Number: 2099
Registered: 05-2004
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| | Sunday, February 17, 2008 - 11:21 pm: |
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Interesting!
(Message edited by ingot54 on February 18, 2008)
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 936
Registered: 09-2005
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| | Monday, February 18, 2008 - 08:45 am: |
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Hello Capt & Ingot
Thanks for the Techni-colour charts above, and your discourse Capt. ~ it all adds to the texture of market understanding.
I’m sure you have good reason for using shorthand and metaphor in your text Capt. and broadly I agree with your comments, but I and somewhat more cautious than you in execution of trades (with obvious bottom line effects).
Your original post boldly showed a new channel on the XAO chart with a target of 6,100-6,200 – and the push for this move higher was the resource (already up 30%) and energy sector also up.
Your clear indication of lightening up on the financials and concentrating on the hard commodities and energy sections of the market has been a successful strategy (I have shorted the banks with success - but am not bulk long yet) – but my point was for resources to continue higher the obvious short term resistance on the XAO & BHP needs to fail to allow the target you suggest to be achieved (6050 on XAO).
“Where do you get this foolish notion that the XAO is the measure of Seaworthiness on the ASX” – We all use simple measures (including you Capt) to provide meaning in life & if we want details then sector analysis of the All Ords will provide them. A scan over the weekend of All Ords showed Alum, Diversified metals, Oil and Gas & Pharmaceuticals were bullish, with 10 different sectors bearish in the top 10.
Yes I understand analysis paralysis but one needs more than one trigger before acting in the market (particularly when it is a bear market ~ a bull market is a lot easier to manage).
I do not believe that delaying entry/top up is a poor approach given the current situation ~ but I could stand corrected Capt.
Happy trading DYOR
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colin_twiggs
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Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 3116
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
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| | Monday, February 18, 2008 - 09:07 am: |
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CC,
Vertical ruler -- Is this what you are looking for?
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/help/trendlines.htm#vertical-trendline
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3018
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 18, 2008 - 03:58 pm: |
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My apologies Admiral Col'n
That is exactly what I wished for
Well done!
I meant to thank you for the Horizontal line when I first saw it I but decided to thank you after the Vertical line
Crickey! I must have been absorbed in some form of conflict with some form of Idiot with brain cells less than they were born with as I missed that Vertical line
Please accept my sincere apology for a job well done!
Any news about my other requests
#4 An Inverse button so I can see who is Shorting
All I can see at the moment is a few skippers standing upside down in their boats with their feet only showing
I am not that good with feet but I can swear I saw my 1st Officer Spid's feet upside down reading a chart
#5 A % Scale on the "y" axis on the LHS or RHS or both
I like the idea of % off the TOP on the RHS
and
I like the idea of % off the BOTTOM on the LHS
As always I leave these gigantic tasks up to you and your loyal crew to do what is best and in quick time
Salute and Gods' speed
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on February 18, 2008)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 3019
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 18, 2008 - 04:59 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Tryhay
You are indeed an Officer of outstanding ability
I am not too convinced that the 200 day MA will show any resistance
As you may know
I am a student of History and in the main "Naval History"
What we see now is more like a 200 year Sea-Change
Before the Portugese Spanish French British and US Naval Empires there was a real Giant in Naval Exploration in
"CHINA" 200 years ago
IMO We are only reverting to the 200 years moving average
and de-coupling of the West
De-coupling is like any Sea-change
It just sneaks up on you
As I discussed with Officer Rederob years ago I thought that this Resource boom would go on for decades
At least until CHINDIA was built
It may have taken 200 years for the USA to get where it is today but I figured that the CHINDIA will do what the West did in 200 years the East will do in 20 years
The idea I refered to years ago of "Saudi Australia" is still true as I feel it was then
NB: I still feel safe in having all my eggs in the resource classes of sail ATM
(At least until the building of CHINDIA is completed)
Crikey! I'd love to see that!
NOW That's what I call "The Big Picture"!
Salute and Gods' speed
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on February 18, 2008)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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perler59
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Username: perler59
Post Number: 1010
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 01, 2008 - 11:13 am: |
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I think the broadening top on the weekly chart has just developed a failed up swing and we are now about to break down and test the 50% retracement of the entire bull run, at about 4800! Comparing the Advance-Decline line for XAO to XAO shows a very bearish divergence over the past month.
http://ttc.net.au/~stever
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elisabeth
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Username: elisabeth
Post Number: 435
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| | Sunday, March 02, 2008 - 06:16 am: |
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Perler, I agree. Colin also has a LT target of 4800 from 2006. I hope we’re wrong..... (HC if you’re reading this – I’m a bear too unless XAO breaks out strongly above the 6400 level)
The weekly traces a big M which easily allows that target (loosely drawn in pink) to be reached – perhaps as a downward spike, with major consolidation in the zone highlighted by the blue rectangle.
I still see the daily in a bear flag formation giving the same target as the weekly M. Could also be drawn as a pennant - same target, but a flag allows a test of 6000, and if the flag fails and XAO pushes above - well, wouldn't that be nice!
I’m not experienced in EW, but a 5 wave structure with a simple 2 retracement and a complex 4 retracement/consolidation currently forming seems to fit. My issue is with where I start the wave count – I can’t fit a nice ABC into the move from the peak. Anyone advise?
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perler59
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Username: perler59
Post Number: 1012
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| | Sunday, March 02, 2008 - 02:37 pm: |
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Elisabeth, thanks for the charts. Applying the rule "There's no such thing as support in a bear market", your target is better than mine For the index traders, I'm picking an XJO bottom in the range 4550 - 4520. This is not a recommendation to trade!
http://ttc.net.au/~stever
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perler59
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Username: perler59
Post Number: 1013
Registered: 09-2003
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| | Monday, March 10, 2008 - 03:06 pm: |
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Monster Monthly Sell Signal ...
http://www.tradethemarkets.com/public/1881.cfm
http://ttc.net.au/~stever
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 972
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 24, 2008 - 02:52 pm: |
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More than 1 month since some comparison between XAO performance & BHP's; and what a difference a month makes!
It is pretty clear that momentum in both instruments is weak, and the butcher (DOW) is likely to hit some resistance probably resulting in further weakness.
BHP: Not certain that $31 will hault the slide here..
XAO: Resistance looks futile here..
Happy trading DYOR
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perler59
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Username: perler59
Post Number: 1014
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| | Monday, March 24, 2008 - 03:25 pm: |
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I think I see a monster H&S on the BHP weekly chart, with a target of $16.00! BHP loves multiples of 8 and 4 ... Surely not!
As to buying banks, what will happen to them as our way over-cooked housing market goes all mushy later this year? I've read a theory that we are about a year behind the yanks on this front. The "E" part of the current PE could get thrashed, and you can be sure the "P" is where the rot will show first, before the news gets out to the mugs who love to buy down trends. Of course all this could already be factored in, but I don't think so.
http://ttc.net.au/~stever
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tryhay
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Username: tryhay
Post Number: 974
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| | Monday, March 24, 2008 - 03:37 pm: |
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Hello perler59,
Perrish that thought Perler. I don't think the daily chart is attractive ~ and the weekly ain't much better.... just chop it off at the neck will make it lose ten pounds ($16) of ugly fat!
I'm lookin for the regular (or not so R) bounce on the way to the cleaners..
Perhaps there will be some real estate bargins here next year?
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 977
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 25, 2008 - 08:16 pm: |
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FWIW the monthly chart puts a different slant on the pic above: I wonder whether the long term moving average will be kissed before the price action moves higher ~ or is something else in store?
Monthly chart: Frankly the MACD looks a bit streached for my liking ~ but I'm sure stranger things have happened, but not in this time frame ...
All base metals are currently in the green
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1123
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, August 10, 2008 - 03:18 pm: |
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Some time since comment on this thread, and I am wondering if the XAO is about to "fall out of bed": the bounces in price action look to be loosing momentum, moving averages providing resistance and still pointing down, selected indicators looking poor (with divergence on many), and commodities & banks taking a pizzling.
Daily chart: Price action seems to retested broken support & giving the more recent support a work out ~ when price action sorts current events then it will be time to top up the wardrobe with some more modern fashions (I think rivers are having a sale)...
Happy trading DYOR
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perler59
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Username: perler59
Post Number: 1018
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| | Saturday, October 11, 2008 - 09:25 am: |
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Bodies in the street everywhere and the highest $VIX value I've ever seen. We have maximum fear.
Last night the S&P500 tested its lows 4 times and then rallied hard in the last hour, and volume has high.
It smells like a bottom to me 
http://ttc.net.au/~stever
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weekly projections - 30th july / 3rd august
x
