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     archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 785
Registered: 11-2002Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Thursday, July 21, 2005 - 09:42 am: |  
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Plus 4th attempt to break thru
Succesful break targets 4650 around the spring equinox
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mydas1
Member
Username: mydas1
Post Number: 3
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 21, 2005 - 06:40 pm: |
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Nicely sited Archer.
Stats from the expert - Thomas Bulkowski "failure rate is 26%' - 'average gain is 38%' - 'Throwbacks after a breakout occur in 3 out of 4 chart patterns' He suggests to 'Wait for the throwback before buying' - you will reduce the failure rate to 10%.
INCREDIBLE OFFER - only $16 USD per month
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 553
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 21, 2005 - 11:07 pm: |
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Beautiful work Archer.
I had just been looking at the XJO and thinking the same. In comparison, XAO looks better!
The XJO breakout today was around 42 points - similar to XAO.
My point in spoiling your thread - it seems the two are tracking very closely - top 200 still having the major influence.
Keep Smiling
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hailoh
Member
Username: hailoh
Post Number: 139
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 25, 2005 - 08:22 am: |
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G'day Archer et al.
For a farmer there's nothing better than to be able to have the TAP full open and flowing. Can even waste the odd cup or two. But I'm wary of having the handle fall off if the pressure gets a bit too much. Had a nasty accident in 1997.
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mydas1
Member
Username: mydas1
Post Number: 4
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 25, 2005 - 04:37 pm: |
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bears would be wary of a nasty cross below the 50day MA to crack it
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 816
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 03, 2005 - 08:34 pm: |
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Getting a little concerned here Hailoh
Heres the 97 chart you put up
And the current chart
And heres another example (i remember this one well)of
running it up 3-4 days and then a very defined sideways
distribution
I dont have any other indicators showing danger signs
Except for the SPI blowing out from a single figure discount
to a 20-30 point discount over the last 10 days or so
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hailoh
Member
Username: hailoh
Post Number: 140
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 03, 2005 - 09:21 pm: |
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Archer, I am making very heavy weather with new entries at present and am watching long positions very keenly for close out time.
I thought I was pretty safe with a couple of counter-trend shorts in housing industry linked stocks that started off doing the right thing for me handsomely (getting ahead of the pack if the handle did break) but I was blown out of the water over the past couple of days. I did have very tight stops though.
I'm staying with gold exposure through CFDs and that's about as far as I will stick my neck out at present.
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willow
Member
Username: willow
Post Number: 48
Registered: 05-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 04, 2005 - 09:24 am: |
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Hello everybody, Just thought I'd put my 2 bob's worth in. Great observation Archer and Hailoh, it is this sought of stuff that makes me like checking forums likes this out, and so I feel like I need to contribute information if I'm walking away with it. This is just an observation I made with the smoothed 64day ROC, I chose a long time frame and smoothed it to give more authenticity to the signals and better observation and found the 97 picture is very different to to-days picture but as we all know it is actually what happens in the market that counts more than any indicator. The ROC on the 97 chart is a large head and shoulders formed mostly above 0, our recent ROC is an inverted head and shoulder formed mostly below 0. Checking this out has given me a bit more confidence to stay on the long side though you have given me thought for caution and got me thinking a pullback could be on the cards now. Note the timely signal in our recent bear phase. Regards,Willow. .
(Message edited by robin on August 21, 2005)
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willow
Member
Username: willow
Post Number: 49
Registered: 05-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 04, 2005 - 09:43 am: |
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Woop's forgot the other chart.
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 817
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 04, 2005 - 11:21 am: |
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Thanks for the charts willow
As long as the 4325 area hold ill stay bullish
Funny you should mention the housing industry linked stocks
Hailoh
Over the last 2 weekends ive looked at the chart of every
ASX200 stock and there were MANY more bullish charts than
bearish ones.Among the bearish one were the housing industry linked stocks
Didnt short any,but i was close
Today is day 135 in this cycle so if we can break up out
of the range today or tomorrow we might see a 45 day run up
to the tarjay
This would equal the run from the 45 day mark to
the 90 day mark
(Message edited by archer on August 04, 2005)
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 821
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 04, 2005 - 04:16 pm: |
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Well the spidy sense is still tingling at high frequency
after todays dud action
I'll be checking the Xao chart tonight and see if i can find some more of these tight sideways moves
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 823
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 04, 2005 - 04:34 pm: |
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starboard_tack
Member
Username: starboard_tack
Post Number: 257
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 04, 2005 - 05:49 pm: |
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Archer,
The tight sideways move seems to coincide with the wait (it would seem nervously) for the financial reports to come in.
So far this week we have seen reports from DJW, BWP, CRG, CXP, RIO, AWC, GPT, IPG, PBB, and SGT.
The market response so far has been generally good. Very positive for CRG and PBB. Positive for RIO (but maybe due to sector strength), and DJW. Indifferent for BWP, AWC,GPT, and IPG. Negative for CXP, and SGT (though SGT went ex-div at the same time so hard to read).
The market generally seems to be looking for direction from the reporting season. Guess we have to wait a bit longer to find out.
Regards,
Starb'd
"There is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats"
Water Rat to the Mole in "The Wind In The Willows"
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 689
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 04, 2005 - 07:34 pm: |
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This still looks OK, but I've only recently coded it, so its not well tested.
Weinstein's Momentum Index calculated from AORD
A-D data using a 150 day WMA rather than his 200 day SMA
http://gw.sttc.net.au/~stever/momentum_aord.html
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 825
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 05, 2005 - 01:32 am: |
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Thanks for the chart perler
I think its just that those 2 other examples of tight 12 day
sideways patterns(in my charts above)stand out in my mind
is because of the dramatic plunges afterwards
Ive eyeballed about 20 years of XAO history tonight and
found a few examples that broke up so thats eased my
concerns a little
Every thing else looks good to go north for a while yet
Just being overly cautious
cheers
---Archer---
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 229
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 06, 2005 - 07:18 pm: |
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Colin,
Re the trading diary and low volume on Monday - it was a public holiday in NSW I think I heard. Not a lack of selling pressure.
Ken
Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 1953
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, August 08, 2005 - 09:42 am: |
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Thanks Ken,
That would partially account for the lack of selling pressure.
Regards, Colin
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 880
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, August 21, 2005 - 06:39 pm: |
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If we can see new highs this week its still on target of
4620-4630 for 18th sep
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 987
Registered: 11-2002Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, October 03, 2005 - 09:31 am: |
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Price has hit the exact centre of target range in post above
Timing was 10 days out
I think a correction here for a month or two or sideways
at best
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 89
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 03, 2005 - 11:28 am: |
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Congratulations.
I just love a guy who is prepared to make forecasts.
Arthur Gibson
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eblode
Member
Username: eblode
Post Number: 138
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 03, 2005 - 12:56 pm: |
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Especially when they are right!
Eugenio
PS: I'm watching your forecast Arthur with bated breath on SGB.
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1001
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 10:46 am: |
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So far so good
Back to the lip of the cup and handle above
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userxx
Member
Username: userxx
Post Number: 14
Registered: 02-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 12:20 pm: |
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you beat me to it archer. I was just thinking the same thing. It was always going to head back down to test the top of that formation, I have it getting down to around 4300, hope its in the next few days to get this pain over and done with , so we can move on up again.
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1015
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 07, 2005 - 12:00 pm: |
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I thought we might get 3 large down days,correct for a
week or 2 then down hard again similar to march
That looks less likely now unless we tank this arvo
We may just get 1 or 2 days consolidating or mild rally then down big again next week
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stoploss
Member
Username: stoploss
Post Number: 225
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 07, 2005 - 08:39 pm: |
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Difficult to say just now Archer. I agree that we haven't seen the bottom going by my instinct. However I can't back that up technically as yet. If you look a weekly swing chart of the AOX you can note the prior swing high is 4321 ( personally I focus on 4312 the 2 weekly candle tops discounting shadows). If you combine that with a bit of wave counting than we could be looking at a correction of a W3 (which topped 4679). 4444 is the 50% and 4392 the 61.8% mark of the prior upswing. So we took out the 50% level today, and if it continues down 4390ish is the next plausible level. Could be as bad as 4321 with this analysis.
Apart from that its wait see.
SL
..then again..I could be totally wrong. So use your own brain and let me know what it brought up.
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1073
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 30, 2005 - 12:40 pm: |
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Top picked within a few points now bottom picked within a few points just using simple chart patterns that work simply
Meanwhile king arty been ringin the bell on a daily basis
calling for a bottom based on yelling at the computer screen
yet he has many followers who are probably wonderin why they
are losin' money
You gave me some good laughs Arthur
Cant say im sad to see you go tho
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volvodriver
Member
Username: volvodriver
Post Number: 27
Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 30, 2005 - 04:33 pm: |
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Lots of older TA's used doubling theory for recent target as early as 1987-1988 but were ignored after the crash but dreams do come true even if it does take 18 years (ie 1987 Hi of 2312.4 times 2 = 4624.8 - I guess 4625.8 was pretty close after a very very long wait.
Don't Die Wondering
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1087
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 03, 2005 - 09:58 am: |
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XAO hit 50% of the range down today-an important level
Im going thru the charts of each stock in the top 200
just about every 2nd day now and i have to say i dont have
a lot of confidence in the bull market resuming but i will
follow the market if it can push thru the 50%
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 251
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 03, 2005 - 10:59 am: |
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Hi Archer
"i have to say i dont have
a lot of confidence in the bull market resuming "
I have also been checking the charts and they look like they are on the wrong side of the mountain and many sitting on resistance and / or around the 200 ema.
Big drops like TWR, and CSM etc seem to add to the downhill theory but lets waite and see, US has put in a big week so far.
...........................................................
"Emotions, in people and markets, rarely turn on a dime"
http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1090
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 03, 2005 - 12:00 pm: |
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Yes many more shorts showing up now
If it keeps advancing i think it will only be a few stocks
dragging the index and that should show on perlers charts
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1135
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 25, 2005 - 12:08 pm: |
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Well we made it back to the old highs and it looks like
there is another cup+handle forming and if broken targets
around 4900
I cant work out any decent dates from cycles yet but
historically the end of the first week in JAN is an
excellent time to get short
Its a long way off at the moment but if the XAO can stretch
to 4900 by the 5-8th of Jan i think that date can start a
big correction
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glenn
Member
Username: glenn
Post Number: 29
Registered: 11-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 25, 2005 - 02:39 pm: |
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I'm too lazy to check over a decent period now (work is piling up and I really shouldn't be on here! heh) but isn't the end of feb/mar usually the best time to get short, if we are talking cycles?
Smrt-trader
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1137
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 25, 2005 - 02:50 pm: |
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End of feb mar is a big time period
Im talking about a 2-3 day period
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1168
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 09:34 am: |
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If the christmas rally is gonna happen it should start right around here
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histrionix
Member
Username: histrionix
Post Number: 64
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 05:52 pm: |
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Looked more like Father Christmas going down the chimney, than any rally I've ever seen!
H
There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.
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chart_rider
Member
Username: chart_rider
Post Number: 118
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 08:21 pm: |
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With the Nikkei up 258, there's always the chance this could turn the S&P around tonight and flow on, subsequently shooting Santa back out the chimney top.
CR
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 461
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 08:39 pm: |
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US futures up and rising steadily tonight and Oz futures up modestly as well. At least a positive sign at this point.
Tony_M
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1173
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 02, 2005 - 08:24 am: |
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Histrionix
If xao can rise strongly today and finish back in the box
yesterday looks like a false break and sets up the rally
to 4th Jan
False breaks shake out the easily panicked before big moves
You only need to look at your post and the Troubled times ?
thread to see how effective they are
The second day is the important one
What im looking for now is similar to the rally starting
Aug 30th which started from a false break
Below yesterdays low i'll be short
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histrionix
Member
Username: histrionix
Post Number: 68
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 02, 2005 - 09:08 pm: |
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Gad Archer, I hope you are right! Today's candle fits the bill very nicely.
Nothing I'd like better right now than to see Father Christmas ejected forcibly from the chimney with his tail alight. (Don't tell him I said that - I'm still hoping for some Chrissy presents!)
H
There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1017
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 26, 2005 - 08:18 pm: |
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Archer
In your post with chart, of 25th November (above) you mentioned a target of 4900. Do you still feel the same about the target, and the correction to follow?
You were right about the second cup and handle forming.
Keep Smiling
Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1018
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 26, 2005 - 08:35 pm: |
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... a 3-D view ...
Keep Smiling
Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1431
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 26, 2005 - 09:10 pm: |
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And a Guppy Multiple Moving Average View
On fire but for how long?
And how scary are the retracements in this roaring bull market ... and how suddenly they strike
In hindsight it is always crystal clear what would happen but in real time it is never so clear
Oh for a rear vision mirror that would show us the future
But charts don't predict, do they?
Hilarius
(Message edited by Hilarius on December 26, 2005)
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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dydavo
Member
Username: dydavo
Post Number: 133
Registered: 12-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 27, 2005 - 09:41 am: |
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Hi Hilarious,
After one of the mid year sell offs I thought about something that Colin said early in the year - TMF money flow indicator turned down before the fall in the ASX200.
I now look closely at day 10 day moving averages of OBV,MFI and force index on the ASX200 and the aussie sectors. As you know, all these indicators include a volume in their calculation. If any of these EMAs move down at day's end, I then move my stops up very close, or take the $ off the table.
I am referring to my short term trading of aussie sectors here. I am long at the moment in M, H, F and N sectors.
This approach does not seem to work so well with individual stocks (maybe except CBA) - perhaps not enough volumes to make it reliable.
Hope others can add to this line of thought - how analysis of volumes can, dare I use the word, predict.
Snifter, who I learned so much from when I started trading a couple of years ago, used to argue that volume analysis was irrelevant, but IMO it cannot be ignored if you have a lump out there at 1:100 margin!
cheers, and all the best for 2006
dydavo
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1242
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 27, 2005 - 11:18 am: |
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Ingot
If we got to 4900 by 6-9th Jan i was expecting a decent correction(1-2 months)
230 points in 7 1/2 trade days is not impossible but looks
unlikely
In a LARGE percentage of cases that date is a top of
varying magnitude
The next highest probability is a 3-4 day sharp correction
into that date then the market takes of upside
Nothing stands out at the moment so i'll just watch what the
market does going into that weekend
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1273
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 16, 2006 - 09:06 am: |
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Well the date i was watching turned out a low(6th Jan)
Going thru the top 200 there is about 40 stocks(and these include most of the larger stocks driving the market)that
may be completing 90 day moves that started Oct 21
Probable trend change toward end of week if the market rises
into that time period
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1278
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 18, 2006 - 08:48 pm: |
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Looks like the top came a day early
Many of the stocks mentioned above had ugly outside reversal days
Lets see if we get some follow thru to confirm this top
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endorphin
Member
Username: endorphin
Post Number: 16
Registered: 09-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 21, 2006 - 07:42 am: |
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Any thoughts on what just happened in yanksville last night and what impact it may have here in the coming days ? Personally, I'm probably leaning slightly more on the down side than the up but only sightly, simply because from what I saw here yesterday the general movement/s were robust and positive, I mean even the 4:15pm auction jumped up some 6 points on the XAO
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redrover
Member
Username: redrover
Post Number: 33
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 21, 2006 - 08:31 pm: |
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One News report I saw (Bloomberg TV) suggested that the fall in the DJIA was triggered by poor 4th quarter reports from General Electric and CitiBank.
Whether this is the whole story or not - I don't know. If this is true, then theoretically it shouldn't drag XAO down - but your guess is as good as mine 
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thommo78
Member
Username: thommo78
Post Number: 99
Registered: 05-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 22, 2006 - 01:12 am: |
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hello all ... weekly chart of xao suggests time for a pullback ... divergence between sp and twiggs/rsi shows weakening trend... resistance of upper trendline in rising channel also providing resistance...
all it needed was an excuse for a trip to lower trendline...
dow broke higher through significant long term resistance at 10,950 only to reverse and head south (a true bull trap if ever I’ve seen one). It then proceeded to breach long term support at 10,700.... "below!!"
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moleman
Member
Username: moleman
Post Number: 158
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 22, 2006 - 11:09 am: |
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Hi
You can get nearest contract futures prices from halving the bid and offer of the Aus stock index at www.igmarkets.com.au. Using this I'd expect 4800 for the XJO on Monday.
cheers
moleman
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endorphin
Member
Username: endorphin
Post Number: 17
Registered: 09-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 22, 2006 - 09:07 am: |
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Here's one take on what happened in the U.S. on Friday. I guess at the end of the day we all just wait
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3B50130E%2D76B9%2D4A29%2D9CA0% 2DC79620940F84%7D&siteid=mktw&
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userxx
Member
Username: userxx
Post Number: 50
Registered: 02-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 21, 2008 - 06:32 am: |
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thanks to Archer for pointing out the cup and handle formation, the first one shown at the start of this thread has been tested as support a long time ago, however the second one also mentioned above was tested as support on Friday last week, a very bullish sign for the future imo.
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