Archive through August 13, 2005

Chart Forum » Markets » XAO - HOW MUCH FURTHER? » Archive through August 13, 2005

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vermante

Member

Post Number: 323
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, May 28, 2005 - 12:02 pm:

XAO looking strong - I believe the focus now should be on will it make new highs .My guess is that it would

Cheers

Vermante

vermante

Member

Post Number: 330
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 08, 2005 - 09:18 pm:

Getting closer

Cheers

Vermante

(Message edited by vermante on June 08, 2005)

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vermante

Member

Post Number: 335
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, June 17, 2005 - 07:27 pm:

Got there quicker than expected . Anyone game to short ?How long can a 90 degree rise be sustained ?

Cheers

Vermante

morton

Member

Post Number: 5
Registered: 05-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, June 19, 2005 - 01:27 pm:

about time someone posted a logarythmic xao chart. I'm thinking the same as you. I reckon another correction back to primary uptrend, or previous resistance at 4255ish. Wait for buy signal and we're good to go for another sustainable long term run.

vermante

Member

Post Number: 344
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, June 25, 2005 - 10:20 am:

Commencement of the down trend?. Bulls on the backfoot- Bears waking up from their slumber.Defensive sectors beckon?

Cheers

Vermante

007

Member

Post Number: 147
Registered: 05-2005

Rating:
Votes: 2


Tuesday, July 05, 2005 - 04:36 pm:

Hi all,

lately I've been thinking XAO will be seeing a double top. However, what are the chances we'll be seeing a cup with handle breakout instead?

xao

Thanks

007

ken

Member

Post Number: 221
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 21, 2005 - 12:38 pm:

Hello all,

I found some trendlines on an old project, and extended them with no change in slope - they define an upward channel we now seem to be in.

Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.

vermante

Member

Post Number: 363
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 21, 2005 - 05:52 pm:

Break out on bullish volume-DOW,FTSE strong . Should go for a gallop .

Cheers

Vermante

vermante

Member

Post Number: 364
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, July 23, 2005 - 06:46 pm:

Strong finish to the week on increasing volume . Target 4600

Cheers

Vermante

vermante

Member

Post Number: 378
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, August 10, 2005 - 09:20 am:

The Bull marches on

Cheers

Vermante

rederob

Member

Post Number: 1206
Registered: 10-2002

Rating:
Votes: 1


Wednesday, August 10, 2005 - 09:45 am:

vermante
I expect the 4400 number to be hit before an inalienable event horizon.

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 2
Registered: 01-2005

Rating:
Votes: 2


Friday, August 12, 2005 - 10:40 pm:

If you look at the boom that led up to the October 1987 crash its starting to look very much like the current boom.

1985 1987 Boom

A long steady climb came to a false top in 8 May 1986, corrected down to 28 July 1986, very similar to our correction down into May 2005 after a two year climb. Then the trend resumed, but at a steeper angle of ascent, similar to our new trend that commenced in May 2005. The May - July 1986 correction stabilised the trend, very much as our May 2005 correction has done.

The trend climbed with little volatility until the April - late June 1987 sideways pattern that everyone thought was the top. The trend then resumed for a third and final time at an increased angle of ascent which gained 33% in the last three months.

Renewed volatility at the top signalled the end of the third trend and those who ignored the sign lost everything.

Since March 2003 history has been repeating itself and this can happen with classic mega boom/busts. History repeats and the charts duplicate because human nature is exactly the same during the second boom as during the first. The charts are more a chart of human reaction to a similar circumstance, rather than a chart of share price movements. Therefore the second chart has to be a clone of the first.

This is NOT a normal stock market boom. This is a resources/oil boom and the other stocks have been lifted by it and this has disguised what has been happening since March 2003. Now that we have entered the second stage of the boom, the cloak will fall away and the man in the street will wake up the fact that free money is raining out of stock market resource stocks to a far greater extent than from the other stocks. The banks, retailers, property and infrastructure etc. will rapidly be abandoned and the money will be funnelled into BHP/RIO etc. The smaller miners will offer even higher rewards than the giants and they will be bid even higher as the mania grows.

I notice that Kerry Packer is moving his money into resources. Yeah, its 20 years since the last mega boom/bust and I reckon that this is the start of "the big one". This is Armageddon. This is "Apocalypse Now".

Stop searching for the top, we are still in the foothills of this boom; you can't even see the top from here. When this is over they will be handing out food to ruined stockbrokers in Australia and I will be driving a Bentley Convertible. I hope that you time the exit right and buy one. If you don’t – you will be on the breadline too!!

Arthur Gibson

perler59

Member

Post Number: 710
Registered: 09-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, August 13, 2005 - 03:10 pm:

Arthur,

You make a compelling argument. You've inspired me to get out my bull horns and polish them up

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

sparticus

Member

Post Number: 16
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, August 13, 2005 - 03:13 pm:

I agree.

I was working in the Stock Exchange building in Melbourne during that time and the hysteria was insane. It was like everybody was playing the 'airplane game' (a pyramid scheme that took off in the 80's). Insider trading was the norm. Everybody had a friend who had a friend.

What was notable to me,(though I was not an investor at the time) was that the old hands who had always been there were all quite bemused, because now they had all these equity hicks gabbling about 'grams per tonne' and 'inferred resources', while they shook their heads, watching the p/e ratios spiral out of control.

I knew a lot of them - they'd been coming to watch the 'big board' for years, and as the crowds in the gallery got out of control, they all sold their holdings then stood at the back to watch the entertainment as the inevitable happened. Thankfully most of the old hands made it out in time.

The day the market crashed, the gallery was full and the gasps of disbelief and the groans of pain were something I'd never seen before. The air stank with fear.

So far the p/e ratios are very low, but I can feel similarities arising - acquaintances who previously babbled about mortgages have sold their property investments, and now they're are starting to talk about gold, and the 'resilience' of the share market.

And considering there's nowhere else for their money to go, I think it's going to be a fast and furious boom when it happens - much faster than pre 87.

And then, as Packer said, 'When the taxi driver starts giving you tips about the sharemarket, you know it's time to get out'.

Sparticus