Archive through August 17, 2005

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msparks

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Post Number: 198
Registered: 10-2004

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Monday, August 15, 2005 - 12:16 am:

http://www.ampcapital.com.au/ampfp/_pdf/orderbrochures/InvestmentToolkitPresentation.pdf?DIRECT

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 10
Registered: 01-2005

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Monday, August 15, 2005 - 10:25 am:

I would hazard a guess that RIO and BHP will correct within three days. That could be a way in for anyone who is interested in the stocks.

Despite all that I have said, I would be nervous buying today (Monday). The mania has not started yet and we may be in a price spike following the RIO result. Although it was a great result.

Surely we must hit a price weakness this week? I certainly hope so.

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ann

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Post Number: 753
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Monday, August 15, 2005 - 02:57 pm:

The DJIA is an interesting chart, it looks like the majority of its constituents are just range trading. Waiting for something to happen? Return to its lower range perhaps?

Whereas the NYSE composite index is looking much like the XAO. Above its all time high and steaming ahead. So I guess there are some very interesting stocks in that index.....any uranium miners/reactor owners amongst the 2000?

peterloh

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Post Number: 1266
Registered: 03-2003

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Monday, August 15, 2005 - 06:44 pm:

Mark,

The graph tells a thousand words.Now you know the reason fishing is such an expensive hobby literally or otherwise.Just outperforming the index by 10% and we will have a reasonable good result.You are better informed than many in the forum than you made out yourself to be.

Good trading

PL

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

longshanks

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Post Number: 151
Registered: 11-2004

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Votes: 0


Monday, August 15, 2005 - 10:32 pm:

Hi All

I am part-way through If It's Raining In Brazil, Buy Starbucks by Peter Navarro. It's a great read and talks from the Macrowave Investing perspective. Something I read recently grabbed my attention.

"Let's start, then, at the top of the market cycle with the transition from late bull to early bull. At this point, the business cycle is in the state of an expansion and heading towards a red-hot, and perhaps even white-hot, peak. By this time, the Federal Reserve has probably already raised interest rates three, four, or even five times or more in an effort to bring the high flying economy in for a soft landing. Nonetheless, despite these Fed rate hikes, the unemployment rate remains low, retail sales continue at a Christmas-like sizzle, the cup of consumer confidence runneth over as consumer credit becomes perilously overextended, both factory production and capacity utilisation rates are banging loudly up against inflationary thresholds, energy prices are spiking, and every new economic report that comes out suggesting any further inflationary is just one more reason for Wall Street to get more nervous. It is precisely at this point in this early bear phase that the Street's smart money starts to defensively rotate funds into the health care sector and consumer noncyclical sectors..." (page 174)

Perhaps I should have paraphrased the above...but then perhaps it's best to read it in it's raw form and come up with your own analysis...

Cheers

longshanks

holycow

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Post Number: 1555
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 12:56 am:

LS,

Food for thought.

William O'Neill made a similar observation in his book when he read Livermore's account of the market in "the reminiscence of a stock operator" - somehow the market sentiment at the end game always seems to be best described with the "same old words". I reckon things have not changed that much since the 30's and the 80's.

Here's something to share on "Tao", some ancient Chinese philosophy...

"To know how other people behave takes intelligence, but to know myself takes wisdom",
"To manage/influence other people's lives takes strength, but to manage my own life takes true power".

Cheers.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 11
Registered: 01-2005

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 07:14 am:

OK, I get the message.

I have a point, but I pushed it too far.

You are right.

That's the good think about forums, smart people set you straight and stop you losing money.

Thanks.

Arthur Gibson

rederob

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Post Number: 1231
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 09:08 am:

Mr Gibson
Do you really think "the sky is falling?"
Have you found any hard evidence to the contrary?
MS Parks' above tables clearly show winning streaks in OZ can run for much longer than the 3 years we have had to date, especially given the "numbers" are not overheated.
Longshanks's snippet from Navarro has only described half the "bull" ingredients in place in real world USA: For example, Fed rates are poised for successive rises to around 5% and possibly higher; and factory production and capacity utilisation rates are at low, to the point of extinguishing some manufacturing sectors.
Conventional wisdom can tell us lots of things about what typically happens to markets.
But what do you do when this behaviour for the first time is atypical?
Paradigm shifts are only obvious after the event.
In the meantime, "be alert, not alarmed".

holycow

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Post Number: 1557
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 09:39 am:

Ooops! Mr. Gibson, Please do not take what I have said to be targeting at you - I am just saying that in general. If I may, can I say that while I disagree with some of your view I have not a single ounce of disrespect or malice towards you personally. If I have caused you any hurt feeling, my sincere apology to you.

In general I find people who are willing to share their view here in this forum are generous people.

Have a good day.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

holycow

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Post Number: 1558
Registered: 08-2004

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Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 10:15 am:

My definition of conventional wisdom is "when everyone is seeing it". Currently, these have become the "conventional wisdoms" from my angle:

1) the up trend will continue as there's no evidence of it stopping; on top of that the PE is still below historical average;

2) the demand for commodity in China will continue, hence the good time in ASX will continue;

3) the peak oil argument and the price of oil will keep going up; here is an interesting write up by CK Liu back in May on US50 oil, check out his alternative view.

4) the interest hike has no impact/effect on equity market, and the low cost of money is of no concern;

5) the recent housing bubble in Australia has very little impact on consumer spending; the overall effect has been mute;

The above are some of my observations. The following are some of my more private thoughts:

6) I read a lot of over confident posts revealing a lot of complacency among the market participants; there simply has no room for doubt in many's mind;

7) there's a sense of "absoluteness" in many's view, the polarity in view could only mean one thing - many retail market participants are fully loaded with stocks - this is their most vulnerable moment, hence there's fair bit of intolerance to negative sentiment due to the large stake at risk of market correcting;

8) there's a "concentrated focus" in the energy and the material sectors - at best this bull is half a size smaller;

9) the short term/long term outlook seems to be in total agreement, ie, bullish in most; there's very little doubt on the down side;

10) this one is irrelevant but to make a point - while I hold a negative view on Big Mac counters, recently I went in to three of their counters MAP, MIG and MCG to ride their rebound - this just to say being cautious does not mean I do nothing. While I am taking a bigger exposure to the market, I am also saying this - going long term is risky because of the numerous market killers out there - high oil price, high US deficit, deteriorating confidence in the US$, Big Al's impending retirement; US's latest "open option" on Iran; and many more. Ignoring them will not make them go away.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 12
Registered: 01-2005

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Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 10:30 am:

Holy Cow

No, I didn't take it the wrong way.

I wanted a good discussion on this issue and that's what I've got and it has tempered my mania to a healthy degree!!

Arthur Gibson

ann

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Post Number: 757
Registered: 04-2004

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Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 03:21 pm:

Mark,

That is a very interesting link from AMP. I am meaning that loooong term chart of the All ords from 1900. It answers a question about the reaction by the markets over the nickel boom/crash. It took four years from start to finish with the Poseidon crash. As Arthur so beautifully illustrated with his charts, the boom hasn't even begun, so I think we have got years to enjoy the party.

Mind you, lets hope they don't sack the Governor General!!!

Cheers
Ann

archer

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Post Number: 849
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Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 03:32 pm:

Irrational exuberance
Now where have i heard that before

ann

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Post Number: 760
Registered: 04-2004

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Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 04:37 pm: