Archive through August 29, 2005

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perler59

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Post Number: 721
Registered: 09-2003

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Thursday, August 18, 2005 - 08:35 pm:

In multiple choice I like to have a "C" and "D" as well :-)

How about "C" at 4350 and "D" at 4270? The A-D and weinstein momentum lines look good so far so I choose "B" with a worst case of "C".

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 22
Registered: 01-2005

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Thursday, August 18, 2005 - 08:50 pm:

OK, Amanda has finished her homework. She says it will bounce off "B" and make one more rally before falling to the "A" line in about two weeks time.

Arthur Gibson

rederob

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Post Number: 1250
Registered: 10-2002

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Thursday, August 18, 2005 - 09:15 pm:

As there will be a correction, I am with perler on the choice of medium term targets and punt for "C", then "D" nearer to Xmas.
Amanda should not be getting homework, and her teachers should know better.
Any retrace to "A" has a 4-8 week time frame and assumes something comes along to give the market one heck of a thrashing.
I am not sure the headmaster metes corporal punishment anymore, altho Mr Gibson should put his hand up to ask.
In the meantime, I would be encouraging Amanda to stay focussed on the Wiggles.

holycow

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Post Number: 1586
Registered: 08-2004

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Thursday, August 18, 2005 - 11:07 pm:

XAO Daily

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 23
Registered: 01-2005

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Friday, August 19, 2005 - 05:43 pm:

See what I mean?

Amanda was right - it bounced off the "B" line.

I was wrong, I said it would go to "A".

But I trusted her judgement and bought today and it all turned out OK for me.

I just hope she is wrong about the fall to the "A" line in September!!

Amanda says that BHP and RIO should be bought in the seasonal September/October weakness.

Arthur Gibson

vermante

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Post Number: 402
Registered: 11-2002

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Saturday, August 20, 2005 - 01:01 pm:

XAO marches on . New High Beckons ?

Cheers

Vermante

kate

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Post Number: 73
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Saturday, August 20, 2005 - 05:52 pm:

A couple of things have been stated in the last few days which may have a bearing on the direction of the XAO.

Ian Macfarlane said he will put up interest rates if he sees any upward movement in the property market.
The "Weekend Australian" had a six page lift out entitled "resources boom" with an enormous caption "its a super cycle".
(I'm not for one minute agreeing, I'm just stating what I read).
The future fund will be diversified to include Australian shares.

What is interesting is the amount of information now
appearing in the popular press. Anyone read "The Tipping point" by Malcolm Gladwell?

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 25
Registered: 01-2005

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Saturday, August 20, 2005 - 11:45 pm:

I think that the US is heading into another"Soft Spot". It won't stop their recovery, but it will slow it for a quarter. This will knock the XAO off the "B" line and back to the "A" line again. (See my chart above - 18 August.)

This will coincide with the August-Oct seasonal weakness in shares and represent a wonderful buying opportunity for us.

Yeah, I think that the good times are ahead for those with cash to buy discount shares.

I think the banks look good, especially NAB. Bond yields in Australia are falling and that will look good for banks. CBA is my other pick, but NAB is better. Everyone says ANZ is good, but I don't see why. Can anyone tell me why the ANZ chart is looking good? It looks normal to me.

Arthur Gibson

kate

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Post Number: 83
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Friday, August 26, 2005 - 10:04 am:

When I logged on to Commsec this morning I noticed that there had been large volumes of shares traded outside market hours.
Sometimes it happens with just oil stocks or gold stocks but this seems to be across the board. For example, AMP 16.8 million, LHG 14 mill, ZFX 11.4million and then there are the obvious ones such as STO&OSH. Could anyone enlighten me to why this is happening?

perler59

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Post Number: 727
Registered: 09-2003

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Votes: 0


Friday, August 26, 2005 - 10:15 am:

Hi Kate. Something to do with exercising options perhaps?
http://www.asx.com.au/investor/options/trading_information/contract_specs.htm

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

rederob

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Post Number: 1277
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, August 27, 2005 - 10:17 am:

vermante
How long must we wait before you update the allords chart?
Not that I am impatient, I just like your choice of colours (kind of Queenslandesque don't you think!).

rederob

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Post Number: 1278
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, August 27, 2005 - 11:40 am:

BHP Billiton chief Chip Goodyear yesterday suggested that the investment community is suffering from the same paranoia about the sky falling in that bedevilled Chicken Little.

He must have been keenly reading this thread, and noticed the following message on 14 August:
"Mr Gibson
The sky is falling:
http://www.rickwalton.com/funstuff/skyfall.htm"

Goodyear points out that the new kids on the block (Russia, Brazil, India and China) have added to the demand equation and are likely to continue to drive Australian growth (http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/punters-playing-chicken-bhp-chief/2005/08 /26/1124563030609.html).

Vermante likes threads to be "clean", and rightly so.
Are commodity prices affecting the allords to the extent that we should discuss BHP and RIO here?
I think so (but in context).
The dominance of Murdoch's NWS, or the Banks on the allords has waned of late, and the market is abuzz over commodity/resource/energy/exploration stocks.

Perhaps the chartists can add one or two comparing the recent trend of these sectors against the allords, or come up with stats that do or don't prove the case.

I continue to keep tabs on base metals and oil prices, and while there remains some give and take, the overarching trend remains slightly to the upside. Furthermore, there has not been a decent correction for some considerable time. And most curiously, the time a major correction SHOULD have occurred is NOW, while the northern summer lull can drive the markets lower.

I am punting on September onwards to put a few more notches in the allords belt. Buckle up for the ride!

vermante

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Post Number: 410
Registered: 11-2002

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Saturday, August 27, 2005 - 01:26 pm:

Trend line break , minor low taken out. Suggest short term reversal . Would need to make a new high to convince me it is going higher.

Cheers

Vermante

rederob

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Post Number: 1280
Registered: 10-2002

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Saturday, August 27, 2005 - 01:38 pm:

thanks vermante
i notice very high volumes in the past few days
in fact throughout August the trend has been of rising volumes
given the lead from Friday's DOW, we can expect the allords to lose ground again on Monday
i understand this is typically the "weak" season for prices, so would not be concerned to see a fall to 4350
thru that level and then some worry might be in order

willow

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Post Number: 93
Registered: 05-2005

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Votes: 0


Sunday, August 28, 2005 - 11:05 pm: