Archive through September 12, 2005
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     rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1375
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 12:46 pm: | 
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Mr Gibson
I am surprised that a man of your massive intellect and prescience would even contemplate that post!
It behoves you to interpret all things and be clear about your position on them.
Being a lesser mortal does not become you.
Your humble secular acolyte
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 40
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 01:32 pm: |
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Oh how I love you people.
When deep depression strikes and I feel yet again that I am following in my hero Rene Rivkin's footsteps, I read this forum and lifted by its contents I take the plastic bag off my head, put away the bottle of tablets and decide that life is good after all.
Alas that Rene did not join this forum, because if he had, I think that he would be still with us today.
So let's hear it for Rene Rivkin, he was indeed Mr Market in a mortal frame and as I have met both, I know what I am talking about. Apart from the worry beads, you could not tell them apart. I could sware that they were brothers.
Arthur Gibson
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1376
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 02:10 pm: |
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Mr Gibson
I feel tense.
I could sware that they were brothers, you said.
After consulting with Grammaticus (a near relative of the spritely hilarius) we must make it clear:
That the passing of Rene allows us the use of "sware" (archaic past tense of "swear"), whereas in deference to Mr Market it would be preferable we swear.
Trivialising transcendental transitional transmissional transcription transgressions is trite - so please forgive me this once.
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 41
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 02:53 pm: |
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No you have a point. Please forgive my mistake.
Will the moderator please correct my error and charge the work to my account.
Arthur Gibson
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 781
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 03:47 pm: |
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Been following this thread from a distance from time-to-time - some great TA discussion points.
Arthur you mentioned in your post that Vermante's chart was wrong because, it seems, you've chosen to draw support lines in a different spot to Vermante.
I'm a total novice at TA, but, apart from the very general "touching at least 2 points rule", I never realised there was an official right and wrong way to draw trendlines?
Dean
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 42
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 06:22 pm: |
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You need to draw your trendlines the way the big buyers at AMP and Perpetual etc do. That way you can work out when the bounces will occur and when they will lose interest when the trend is lost.
Share prices are moved by the big buyers, not by you and me and not by the mums and dads. Work out what the big buyers are going to do and you will make money. Even if they are wrong, which half the time they are, you will still make money, because they move the price of the shares in the right direction simply by buying them or by abandoning them.
GUD is a good example, they have been abandoned by the big buyers, so they are doomed.
Share price movements have very little to do with the reality of what companies are doing or earning. Share prices are set by the big operators and nothing else matters. Much of the buying and selling by big operators is done by computers and humans don't even know what is being bought or sold. They simply programme the computers to buy or sell and to watch the trend lines.
That's why my friendship with Shane Oliver is useful. He tells me what AMP are doing and that is better than "inside information" because if they buy, the price will rise no matter what else goes on. If AMP back off and increase their cash, shares will struggle.
Arthur Gibson
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 43
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 06:39 pm: |
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Does anyone here follow McLaren?
(http://www.mclarenreport.com.au)
Arthur Gibson
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 782
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 08:08 pm: |
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So, Arthur, you are basically saying "big money" moves the market.
I'd say that's the opening lecture of "Understanding Financial Markets 101" so I can't see anyone disputing that!
Are you also saying that all "big money" (i.e. fund managers) use the same trendline drawing techniques?
Do they all get bullish and bearish on the same stocks at the same time?
Is it just possible that, just like you and Vermante draw trendlines in different places, maybe, just maybe, the Analyst advising Fund Manager 1 draws the trendline in Vermante's position and the Analyst advising Fund Manager 2 draws the trendline in your position?
I think the market comprises diverse human behaviour, albeit with some underlying conformity / uniformity.
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 44
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 09:58 pm: |
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"Are you also saying that all "big money" (i.e. fund managers) use the same trendline drawing techniques?"
- Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. They all draw trendlines the same way. That's the way I draw them and that's the way Colin Twiggs draws them.
Once you realise that they are all singing from the same hymn sheet, you can use their bulk buying to your own advantage.
The correct understanding of trends is critical to success. Almost nothing else matters. In my opinion Vermante's chart obscures the fact that we have lost the trend and we are in a sideways distribution pattern. I would imagine that we will regain the trend either Monday or Tuesday of this week. If we don’t then we have probably lost it for good and we will have to see where this sideways movement ends up. It’s going to take quite an explosive effort to regain the trend and it is possible that we won’t make it. If we can’t break through 4,460 on the All Ords by about 2.30 PM tomorrow (Monday), we will sink back down and I’m not sure where we will go to then.
I’m bullish. I think we will either regain this trend, or we will continue sideways for a while and then establish a new upwards trend. The angle of ascent of the new trend might even be steeper than the last. If we continue the sideways movement, then I guess we will stay in that holding pattern until mid to late October when the “October blues” have passed. Then the new trend will start.
Right now I see no end to this bull market. I think that it could stretch out to sometime in 2007. We will have a few scares on the way, but I see no reason for it to end. You have to have a REASON for the market to capitulate. I don’t see it right now. I think that this market will get much more manic and that yields will continue to shrink.
Did you see the latest TV adverts for HOMETRADE? Ha ha, that’s the sort of scams we need to see running before this bull market ends. We will see lots more of them over the next 18 months, before the Mums and Dads lose all their money on shares, just like they are now losing it on their stupid “investment properties.”
“Fools and their money are soon parted” and that’s what makes people like us rich.
This bull market is massive and it will have to “focus” before it ends. It will “focus” on the resource stocks and when it does, you will be making money quicker than you could print it. When it both “focuses” and the mania builds to boiling point, then we must bail out and either buy the cheap investment properties, or better still, sit in cash and wait to buy all our lovely shares back again.
I did predict further back in this thread that Rio and BHP would be cheaper through September and October and I feel that they time to buy is very near. In fact the time to buy might have been midday last Friday. I am holding my nerve for a little longer and I’ll shout “BUY” when I think the time is right.
I notice that Colin Twiggs is starting to get his head round this bull market:
"It is taken some time for me to wake up to the strength of this bull market......A more aggressive target would be 5000..."
Good, now we are getting somewhere. Also I am pleased to see that he has dropped the weekly "we are going to drop to 3,440" warning. Hmmmmmmm. No chance of that unless they nuke a major Australian city and that won't happen.
Yeah, we are going to 5,000 all right and probably a hell of a lot further beyond that. This is the biggest Australian bull market you will ever see in your lifetime. You won't see this again for fifty years. Now that Japan is taking off, it will turbocharge our resources companies.
Yep, I'm bullish alright. Mr Market has told me that he is heading for the stars and I believe him.
(Message edited by arthur_gibson on September 11, 2005)
Arthur Gibson
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 783
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 10:30 pm: |
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Thanks for your views, Arthur.
Your TA knowledge is far more advanced than mine, so, as I do with Colin's newsletter, I read and I learn.
I'm glad you used the 3 important words - "in my opinion" - in your last post, when assessing Vermante's charts
I'm sure you'll agree Colin stresses his newsletter is his view of the market - he never claims it to be "gospel truth".
Given that "big money" also loses money from its trading/investing operations, I guess it goes without saying there's no 100% correct way to analyse a chart.
You seem to be a fan of the late Rene Rivkin - interesting, from what I observed, Rene was more a FA man than a TA man.
I'm a fan of George Soros and his trading adage sums up my view of the market and its behaviour.
(Message edited by deanrosario on September 11, 2005)
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros
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vermante
Member
Username: vermante
Post Number: 429
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 11:53 pm: |
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The upper trend line Arthur's Trend line is a dead trend line - Not valid any more -So in the decision making process does not serve any function other than to observe that the trend line has failed to be respected.
IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE UP TREND HAS CHANGED . That would occur if the minor low is taken out as well
The lower trend line , is the probable new trend line.
The rest of the fundamental comments from Arthur is pure speculation and not relevant to T/A .
In this game one has to have ability to think for themselves . Being a follower is a recipe for disaster
Cheers
Vermante
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1021
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 12, 2005 - 08:22 am: |
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Good Morning Arthur
I've been reading your messages with great interest
In your latest you say :-
(1)
Share price movements have very little to do with the reality of what companies are doing or earning.
Response
Possibly true in the very short term, but over the long haul I would suggest the price has everything to do with what companies are doing or earning. If that were not so why do profit downgrades (and upgrades) have the large effects they do on so many occasions?
(2)
Share prices are set by the big operators and nothing else matters.
Response
In general you are probably right, but I would argue that the big operators most certainly take earnings growth (actual and prospective) into account in their decisions whether to be overweight or underweight
Additionally retail investors can have major impacts, especially when driven by hysteria as in the dot com boom
(3)
Much of the buying and selling by big operators is done by computers and humans don't even know what is being bought or sold. They simply programme the computers to buy or sell and to watch the trend lines.
Response
The computer settings I am sure reflect conclusions drawn from human research. I am sure you are not suggesting that computers drive themselves. To the extent that they contain mathematical formulae (eg in setting stops) these are still human parameters that are introduced. The research leading to computer settings would have a large component based on fundamental analysis in many cases.
I also suggest that many major institutions either don't use technical analysis of charts or merely use them as an adjunct to their fundamental research, for such things as timing entries and exits. Some will buy at low prices based on their assessment of under valuation without regard to the chart trend
(4)
That's why my friendship with Shane Oliver is useful. He tells me what AMP are doing and that is better than "inside information" because if they buy, the price will rise no matter what else goes on. If AMP back off and increase their cash, shares will struggle.
Response
I would be amazed if the AMP relies on charts alone ... could your friend Shane confirm that charts are their only source ... or have I misunderstood you?
I do recall seeing Shane on TV in April being very bullish when most analysts were saying the strong market was stalling or finished. What is Shane's current stance?
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 45
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 12, 2005 - 09:30 am: |
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I should have made it clear that my post was concerning short term price movements. Very short term. Of course in the medium to long term, large buyers look at fundamentals.
I largely trade very short term, so I can afford to largely ignore fundamentals. I can sometimes be in and out of a share within minutes. So to me trends are very important. I analyse intraday trends, which appear for an hour or two and then disappear for ever. My volume is huge, so I cannot trade small or mid cap companies, or I would move the share price artificially. I can only trade the larger blue chips, because that's the only way I can get the fast liquidity that I need.
So to me, short term trends and trend reversals are critical. I need to know the longer term trend, but then I work within that parameter, whichever way it is going.
One of my favourite tricks is to buy into falling shares. I work out where the next countertrend will be and I take the uplift and make a profit for a few hours before getting out.
Strictly speaking I am not a day trader and I am not a technical analyst. I effectively run my own hedge fund and I pull every trick in the book to maximise the gains. I sometimes even buy the shares that I want to sell, to manipulate the price. Then when a large seller falls for the higher price, I bite his hand off. I’m one of those bastards who lays hidden traps in the bid and offer columns to fool people into either selling too cheap or buying too dear. I stack up dummy bids down the columns to either make a share look good or bad. I then make my move and quickly delete all my dummy bids before anyone trades them. The remaining buyers and sellers then say to each other - “What the f**k just happened????????”
No, I am not a nice person. Rene Rivkin and James Cramer are my heroes. I am “the dark side” of the stock market. You would be better off without people, like me.
Shane's view is as follows:
"I think share prices will be heading lower into September, but it should still be a mild correction. Hurricanes and $70+ oil could sure help mess it up. Oil prices will generally head lower into October (as growth slowdown fears intensify). But lower oil prices and lower bond yields will then help set up the next move higher in shares (which will then be associated with a move to a new high in the oil price)."
It is a view I agree with. This sideways movement may be all the "corr | | |
