Archive through September 27, 2005

Chart Forum » Markets » XAO - HOW MUCH FURTHER? » Archive through September 27, 2005

«« « Previous Next » »»

Author

Message

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 788
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, September 12, 2005 - 02:04 pm:

Yeah - totally agree; Mr Market is a fickle creature.

Hence, isn't it less risky to wait for Mr Market to show his hand, rather than trust the devil to be honest about what he may or may not do in the future?

Notwithstanding how close a friend he may have been in the past.

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 789
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, September 12, 2005 - 02:21 pm:

Arthur, like you, I often only hold a position for a very short duration to obtain a few points using leverage/volume.

Whilst, I'd be unlikely to enter any short term trade at lunchtime, when the options market is closed, isn't it less risky to wait for a bullish sign to commence rather than pick the bottom?

INCREDIBLE OFFER - only $12 USD per month

FREE Incredible Charts Pro software
Powerful stock screener
End-of-day data for NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX and ASX
Ten years adjusted data history; and
Hundreds of Indices

30 day FREE trial - Download Here

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros

scarrie

Member

Post Number: 238
Registered: 08-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, September 12, 2005 - 04:37 pm:

I'd ditch Mr Market. Todays chart looks more like the work of Mr. Squiggle.

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 52
Registered: 01-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, September 12, 2005 - 05:31 pm:

I do know that Mr Market has not been taking his medication lately. I'll have to get him to start it again. He's obviously off his trolley by the look of today's action.

Arthur Gibson

eblode

Member

Post Number: 135
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 13, 2005 - 10:26 am:

Arthur,
When are you going to write a sequel to "Confessions of a Share Trader". I'll be the first to buy it.
Eugenio

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 53
Registered: 01-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, September 14, 2005 - 07:20 pm:

Where did Wednesday's rally come from?

What caused that?

Does any one know?

It sure took me by surprise.

That cost me $5,000.00.

Am I stupid or what?

Arthur Gibson

scarrie

Member

Post Number: 239
Registered: 08-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, September 14, 2005 - 07:43 pm:

Without wanting to sound sarcastic, a rally shouldn't be too surprising in an uptrend.

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 805
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, September 14, 2005 - 07:46 pm:

Arthur, it's interesting to note that the September SPI expires tomorrow at Noon.

Similar exuberance was observed on 16 March and 15 June - both days prior to the March and June SPI expiration respectively!

I haven't looked further back but, using March and June as a guide, I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong morning tomorrow on the XJO, followed by profit taking after noon, when the contract expires.

Of course, I'll trade on confirmation rather than anticipation!

Regards
Dean

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 54
Registered: 01-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, September 14, 2005 - 08:42 pm:

scarrie

It's not an uptrend, it's a sideways distribution.

Or at least I thought it was.

Here's another $5,000.00 says we will be down tomorrow.

I'm going to buy Promina and Ten network.

Arthur Gibson

perler59

Member

Post Number: 740
Registered: 09-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, September 14, 2005 - 09:26 pm:

Arthur,
I was only mildly surprised because of this:
http://gw.sttc.net.au/~stever/momentum_aord.html

I believe it shows something that can't be seen from price alone.

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

ken

Member

Post Number: 266
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, September 14, 2005 - 11:16 pm:

Arthur,

It was not surprising to me as it was the 4th attempt to crash through the 4460 level at the top of an ascending triangle on All Ords, which started on 22 August.

Regards,

Ken

Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.

zoso

Member

Post Number: 81
Registered: 10-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, September 15, 2005 - 11:52 am:

Hello Dean,

Any idea where I can find more information on how the expiry of futures effects the equities market.

For my own health I definitely need to learn more in this area.

I've just started trading short term leveraged positions on a sample of 'blueys' and I've gotta tell ya, because of my ignorance, today's open was a bit hairy! Things are steady ATM but it'll be interesting to see what the afternoon session throws up.

Thanks in advance.

Paul.

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 813
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, September 15, 2005 - 12:08 pm:

Hi Paul

As a short term trader, I treat the expiration of futures - both individual stock futures and index futures - in the same way that I treat any other major driver of the underlying share market (e.g. annual reports, CPI figures, RBA announcements, etc.).

That is I don't know for sure (and I don't think anyone knows for sure) "how the new information will impact the underlying share market"; but I do know for sure "it will affect the underlying share market".

Therefore, I'd be very wary of holding a position PRIOR to the news / expiration.

The upside is that there's usually good steady movement once the market settles - with the SPI this should happen after the noon expiration or slightly earlier.

The best place to start for futures information is the SFE website.

www.sfe.com.au

Glad to help if you need further information, but I have to say, my practical knowledge of futures' trading is limited to the SPI. The rest of my knowledge is based on theory gleaned from various courses during my post-graduate studies.

Dean

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros

zoso

Member

Post Number: 82
Registered: 10-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, September 15, 2005 - 12:24 pm:

Dean,

Thanks for your thoughts and the link - much appreciated.

I agree that holding a position immediately prior to the expiration is probably not a great idea. At the very least, I need to make myself aware of such events and plan accordingly.

Cheers,

Paul.

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 55
Registered: 01-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0