Archive through September 30, 2005

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hilarius

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Post Number: 1118
Registered: 04-2004

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Tuesday, September 27, 2005 - 11:10 pm:

Spartacus

The phenomenon of herd mentality has operated in markets for centuries

Cycles of boom and bust, or over enthusiasm followed by loss of confidence and under enthusiasm are endemic

The fact that electronic tools now reinforce the upward greed and the downward panic probably magnifies the process

What is interesting is to speculate, as you have done, whether it prolongs both the upward and downward swings, or whether the process is speeded up

Some say computer trading technology made the 1987 crash worse ... and faster ... than it would have otherwise been ...

We will have to see what the next big crash looks like

Maybe the parabolic exhaustion shape of the curve up will give a clue, and a warning

Or the turn may come like a thief in the night

Many said they saw the dot com crash coming, yet how many were still caught, and how many stayed in denial as the market fell?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

sparticus

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Post Number: 22
Registered: 04-2005

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Wednesday, September 28, 2005 - 06:44 pm:

Yep, I realise the trading tools are really only formalising human mass-behaviour.

But in a way they're also not, because maybe they're wiping out millions of variations - anomalies - because they're too efficient to be a natural influence, and considering they're all using the same or similar rationales to trigger buys and sells, surely this would make a difference in how the market behaves.

And considering te most formative influence, Ralph Elliott, developed his Wave Theory in the late 1920s and his theory was based on the psychology of human beings, surely now, with so many portfolios being run by computers all using the same, or similar programs, the market would no longer be behaving in the way that Elliot was used to when he formed his theory.

Just wondering....

It's all very interesting...

Sparticus

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arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 74
Registered: 01-2005

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Wednesday, September 28, 2005 - 09:04 pm:

Hmmmmmmm.

The All Ords and the S & P 200 both hit their price objectives yesterday; 4,600 on the all Ords and 4,620 on the 200. Both retreated. Today was a down day leaving yesterday as the high.

Was that an important high yesterday? Was that THE high that we are looking for?

634563457

The XJO hit the old broken trendline and recoiled. Today moved further away towards the South. Indexes don’t like old trendlines and are often repelled by them.

This is an exhaustion move and all the stocks look exhausted to me. There can’t be anything left in the banks or the resources; Telstra is in trouble. I can’t see what else could drive this market any higher for now.

I suspect that 4,527 on the All Ords is going to be tested and probably broken.

I think that we are going into another sideways distribution pattern, rather like the Hang Seng (Hong Kong) index has done, following it’s exhaustion in August. I think this will last until late October or even into November.

Yes, I think that yesterday was an exhaustion high. Even if it’s not, I’m exhausted by all this excitement and I’m going to stop buying.

Arthur Gibson

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 75
Registered: 01-2005

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Wednesday, September 28, 2005 - 09:13 pm:

Notice that there is a lot of talk about "Is the market overvalued at the moment?" That's not the signal for the top of a bull market. "The market has a long way to go yet" is the signal for the end of a bull market. But "Is the market overvalued at the moment?" IS a signal for a sideways movement, with the bulls and bears holding each other in check until the final move upwards into 2006.

Yeah, I'm going to ring the bell here and call "time" on this one. This is either the end of this round, or it is terribly close to the end of the round.

Arthur Gibson

scarrie

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Post Number: 241
Registered: 08-2003

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Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 12:30 am:

Arthur,
All very sensible but how does that gel with your "Buy NAB" call of yesterday?

rederob

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Post Number: 1480
Registered: 10-2002

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Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 07:54 am:

I'm not sure there is evidence that the market is overvalued: Certainly no evidence presented by Mr Gibson.
Is there evidence that all market sectors have topped?
There is evidence that many of the midcap producers are doing well, pricewise, but no evidence that they have reached a mature value.
While I agree the market is stretching itself and will find the pace of incline hard to maintain, that does not imply exhaustion.
Exhaustion is better coined to account for the DOW right now - in a nation bedevilled by debt, catastrophe and declining consumer confidence, non of which symptomise the Australian market.
I don't know if the allords will crack 4800 before years's end, but I reckon 4700 will get smacked around.
I'm going to borrow from Mr Gibson's bank and splurge a few more dollars on commodities.

archer

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Post Number: 983
Registered: 11-2002

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Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 08:53 am:

Mr gibson just spouts other peoples work-thats why he is
all over the shop

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 76
Registered: 01-2005

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Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 10:56 am:

The four writers that influence me the most are Colin Twiggs, Bill McLaren, Shane Oliver and the lady (Anonymous) who writes the technical section for Share Analysis.com. All four are saying more or less the same thing right now and I am in agreement with them. The market will probably reach a high either very soon, or last Tuesday and then go through a period of volatility before resuming its upwards climb about late October. The renewed bull campaign could last well into 2006 and possibly into the start of 2007.

That’s what I am expecting; a sideways distribution for a few weeks before the market resumes it’s upwards momentum. My apologies if I have no made my thinking clear on this. But obviously this is all conjecture and I will adjust my thinking as the market reveals its movements.

As for buying NAB, my call is a little late, but you will recall that much further up this thread I said that NAB was probably the best buy on the index and my call has been proved correct. I think that NAB still has a way to run.

Also notice that my daughter called a double top to Westfield in this thread a few weeks ago and she has been proved correct.

Only twice have I predicted intra day trading in advance and on both occasions I was surprisingly accurate. I have stopped making any more intraday predictions, because some people on this forum obviously don’t appreciate my efforts. So if you don’t want, you don’t get.

I make many thousands of dollars a day trading and my volume turnover is probably the equivalent of every one else on this forum put together and multiplied by ten. I’m no fool and I’ve been doing this for years. I’m trying to be helpful with my posts and also to be amusing; but if I am not achieving that objective, I will stop posting.

(Message edited by arthur_gibson on September 29, 2005)

(Message edited by arthur_gibson on September 29, 2005)

(Message edited by arthur_gibson on September 29, 2005)

Arthur Gibson

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 77
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Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 11:05 am:

I note that following the recent broker's briefing, a raft of brokers have downgraded NAB this morning. Although I have good and reliable information from the highest levels in the business, broker downgrades are destructive to a stock's valuation and I would therefore alter my call and now I am cautious about NAB in the short term.

Arthur Gibson

deanrosario

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Post Number: 849
Registered: 11-2002

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Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 11:15 am:

Arthur, in my opinion, if/when any person other than yourself provides glowing testimonials of your trading acumen, the Forum will start taking your comments seriously.

By my reckoning your "predictions", thus far, have you about break-even, if not more losses than wins.

But, as Soros says, it doesn't matter how often you win, as long as you win more than you lose.

I hope for your sake you're as good as you claim you are; but, remember, it's no point kidding yourself.

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros

archer

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Post Number: 984
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Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 11:23 am:

I said that NAB was probably the best buy on the index and my call has been proved correct.
ANZ,BHP,RIO,WPL,BEN,MBL,RIN,QBE are just a few of the stocks
that have easily outperformed NAB since your call(INCORRECT)

scarrie

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Post Number: 242
Registered: 08-2003

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Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 11:24 am:

Arthur,
I'm sure lots of people enjoy your posts, but name dropping and bragging about your accomplishments adds nothing, even if they are true. Eg
"I make many thousands of dollars a day trading and my volume turnover is probably the equivalent of every one else on this forum put together and multiplied by ten."
So what?
People generally respond better to a bit of modesty.

Dave

hilarius

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Post Number: 1130
Registered: 04-2004

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Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 11:37 am:

Dear Arthur

Please don't regard me as one who is averse to intra-day (or any) predictions

I seek only to know their basis

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 78
Registered: 01-2005

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Votes: 0


Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 12:10 pm: