Archive through October 05, 2005

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ken

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Post Number: 275
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 02, 2005 - 09:36 pm:

Arthur,

Not sure what started it but I was there when it finished in Feb 94 - inflation and a sharp increase in interest rates (2 per cent I think). The market fell over 2% on that day.

Ken

Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 87
Registered: 01-2005

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 02, 2005 - 11:21 pm:

danielc

Thanks for your vote of confidence. You’ve got it; that’s exactly what I’m trying to do: “Some people can think way way out there and way way in there at the same time.”

- I’m trying to do that to make money for us all.

Arthur Gibson

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 88
Registered: 01-2005

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 02, 2005 - 11:49 pm:

My latest thinking is that I don't think this market has topped. I think that the Friday action was end of month/end of week/prior to Labour Day holiday profit taking after a good month. Futures have us slightly higher and "Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) remains high above zero, signaling strong accumulation."

We must be close to a high, but I don't think that it was last week, although it might be this week. I think that we will need to see the US indexes falter before we do.

Even if last week was the high, or if we get one soon, it won't be THE high. I think that we are one or two thousand points below THE high. Our earnings are so high that at best we will get a sideways distribution pattern before the upwards trend resumes. You can't possibly get a major high when earnings are well supporting share prices and the economy is steaming ahead without a cloud on the horizon.

If BHP and Rio had P/Es of 35+ I'd say yes we are near a high, but as they are only a third of that, I just can't see it.

The banks have had a great run for a long time, but their yields are still very high, so why should they fall much?

Nope, I'm glad I that bought CBA and SGB last Friday and I shall probably be buying strongly tomorrow. I predict a moderate fall to about 10.45AM and then people like me will start buying up the discounted shares and the index will rise and break above 4,600 again.

Arthur Gibson

jimdene

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Post Number: 18
Registered: 07-2005

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Votes: 0


Monday, October 03, 2005 - 02:20 am:

My charts show a slight decline in SBA and SGB, but I will not be most happy to admit you are correct later in the week

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 90
Registered: 01-2005

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Votes: 0


Monday, October 03, 2005 - 01:34 pm:

Bloomberg states:

"The number of stocks traded will probably be below average as the market in Sydney is closed today for a holiday. Melbourne is open."

What does that mean?

I thought that we had one electronic stock market in Sydney that catered for the whole country?

Arthur Gibson

mosaic1996

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Post Number: 1199
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Monday, October 03, 2005 - 01:45 pm:

It means that if you called your Sydney stockbroker to place an order he won't be there to take it.

It means that Sydney based fund managers will be working with a skeleton staff, and will not be making any big decisions.

It means that some traders in other states will take a holiday, and clearly many Sydney based online traders will still trade.

Cheers,
Mosaic

volvodriver

Member

Post Number: 22
Registered: 07-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, October 04, 2005 - 09:21 pm:

My 20 pt close P & F 3 box reversal chart from when the All Ordinaries (XAO) began around the 1880's at its first plot on my chart at 20 points tried to break the 2300-2320 closing level about four times after 1987 before on 07-OCT-96 it finally got through that level.

I remember when it got through drawing a line on the chart and using it as a base line for the "out of this world" target - bit like a big swing targe.

Pretty simple stuff - if 2320 is the base from the zero level then add it on to the base level for the target ie 2320 + (2320 - 0) = 2320+2320 = 4640!!!!

Of course you could be pedantic and use the 1987 Hi of 2312 itself add it to itself and what do you get ---- 4624!!!! well 4617 last Thursday was pretty close.

But we have to be close to something - too many indicators are way too high - the monthly XAO MACD Histogram is now above the 1987 level!! Then again the MACD Histogram in 2003 at the low was also below the MACD in 1991 at its low.

On a weekly basis there is also huge divergenge in the MACD Histogram between the highs in August this year and the current highs.

Don't Die Wondering

fibonacci

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Post Number: 55
Registered: 10-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, October 04, 2005 - 09:47 pm:

How useful are bearish divergences to call market tops??
xao

These obviously are on RSI, running for more than two years before final top but weekly MACD is the same.

John

You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 91
Registered: 01-2005

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 09:37 am:

The index is aggressively charging resistance at 4,600, (XAO) several times a day on an intraday basis. Buying support is strong and the band of consolidation is very narrow. This would indicate to me that it has a very strong chance of breaking above on high volume.

The next resistance (XAO) (re. Colin Twiggs) would seem to be 5,050. (4250 + (4250 - 3450 = 5050.)).

If and when the index breaks through 4,600 the climb to 5,000 or 5,050 could be very quick and could be mirrored in a climb on all the global indexes as US growth picks up, oil falls, the global political scene remains stable and inflation is contained.

We are being held back by nervousness among investors that the forward P/E of the resource stocks is appropriate and that earnings will fall as the supply of commodities increases. But from my own experience of business I know that “volume” can replace “margin” as a driver of profits when prices fall but volume increases. In other words, as the resource companies ramp up production, the profits will continue to climb, even though the prices are falling. Our “volume” has a long way to go yet, so I predict further strong gains in resources as the volume kicks in. This could propel our index to even more dizzying heights. I see no problem with 5,050 before the end of the year and 7,000 by early 2007. Presumably we will then see a terrible correction back down to about 5,250, but it is far too early to predict that now.

As Australian and global real estate continues its long and slow correction, money seeking for yield will be drawn into the stock market away from land and housing and yield will continue to evaporate from stocks. This could lead to a problem for retirees in 2007 when the market will probably crash, ruining their retirement plans.

At this rate we are not going to see an October correction, or even weakness.

Right or wrong, this is my latest thinking. As new data flows in, I alter my mind accordingly and the strong buying support this week has caused me to think that this sideways movement will be much shorter than I previously imagined.

Arthur Gibson

peterloh

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Post Number: 1393
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 10:30 am:

Mr Gibson,

You at least stick your neck out to make a prediction whether others agree with you or not and you give your reasons. For me I have been in the market for so long that I know it is the privilege for the lady to change her mind every so often that I have learn to accept her mood changes whether I enjoy it or not is a different kettle of fish.

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 92
Registered: 01-2005

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 12:07 pm:

Message to Colin Twiggs:

What's the "Twiggs Money Flow" looking like today? (Wednesday).

Arthur Gibson

archer

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Post Number: 997
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 01:07 pm:

"At this rate we are not going to see an October correction, or even weakness."
You are becoming a great contrary indicator

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 93
Registered: 01-2005

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Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 01:26 pm:

With me being a great great "contrary indicator" and your superb accuracy, I can't see how anyone reading this forum can go wrong.

Please read all my posts standing on your head and they will make perfect sense.

Arthur Gibson

rederob

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Post Number: 1499
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 01:55 pm:

what correction
absolute carnage, maybe
but next week it will be like today was a bad dream

may i add, buy more gold...
and some oil
coz the greenback will turn sour and commodities will rise again

deanrosario

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Post Number: 874
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0