Archive through October 07, 2005

Chart Forum » Markets » XAO - HOW MUCH FURTHER? » Archive through October 07, 2005

«« « Previous Next » »»

Author

Message

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 1140
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 12:49 pm:

Good Morning

What a wonderful morning for buying and selling BHP

Made a quick $500 around morning tea time

That's me done for the day

Off to the pool for a swim ... 32 degrees outside

Hilarius

PS Lost a bit more yesterday ... but hey what's a roller coaster without dips?

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

userxx

Member

Post Number: 13
Registered: 02-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 12:56 pm:

thommo, and anyone else, you may also like to look at my post of Sept 17th under Technical Analysis of the Dow Jones for a better picture. I have drawn what I believe is a diamond pattern forming since Dec 2003, which may give us some direction where the XAO may be headed

INCREDIBLE OFFER - only $12 USD per month

FREE Incredible Charts Pro software
Powerful stock screener
End-of-day data for NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX and ASX
Ten years adjusted data history; and
Hundreds of Indices

30 day FREE trial - Download Here

eblode

Member

Post Number: 140
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 02:06 pm:

Rene Rifkin said " The greatest emotion felt by Traders is not the joy of making a profit but the pain of losing one"
How true,how true.
Eugenio

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 883
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 03:29 pm:

Hilarius - well done and welcome to the "daytraders' fraternity" (although, there may only be 2 of us in the group).

Just a word of caution from a daytrader who has revelled in the wins and been devastated by the losses ... make sure you are working to a plan with daytrading.

If it's just "gut feeling" you'll eventually end up with an ulcer ;-).

Dean

PS: Market looks precarious again. If buyers don't show some guts soon, I reckon we're heading for another 100 point drop.

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 98
Registered: 01-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 03:51 pm:

This is starting to look like a much more precipitous drop than March 2005. If that is the case, it will be a different kind of drop. Instead of a three wave fall and a lovely rounded bottom that let us all know when it had done falling, this might be a vicious "V" drop with a very fast rebound off the bottom that gives no warning.

If that is the case, the drop could be deeper than March 2005 in % terms.

I don’t have the faintest idea where the bottom will be. I’m still thinking about it. I would start buying into the fall below 4,300 in stages and likewise on the way up. But I’m not sure yet where that bottom might be.

This fall might go global. The Nikkei and Hang Seng are both down over 260 points today. I’ll have to read the Bill McLaren material again where he outlined the possibility and TA reasons for a severe global crash early in October 2005. I referred to it in a post above, but I can’t find it now.

Arthur Gibson

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 1141
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 03:57 pm:

Dean

Thank you for the kind word of caution

There was a clear plan ... to stay with the rising price trend and exit as soon as it slowed down

I find that the combination of slowness and trend reversal is frequently a precursor of a faster price move

Generally this works best after a long price run ... in this case half an hour :-)

[The ASX is always reliably fickle]

I did have a gut feeling that the sly steel trap minds on the selling side would not leave any profits on the table by lunch-time, so gut feeling assisted my exit ...

But entry was entirely based on an upward moving average crossover on the 2 minute chart with an obvious trend reversal up after the opening "smash the buyers" half hour had created a low followed by strong fast buying at higher prices ... this lasted just long enough for me to make a cup of tea and glance at the day's news and take a profit

As long as the eyes are half glued to the screen the 2 minute chart gives a clear indication of buying or selling direction, in my experience, but the turns come quickly & need an eagle eye ... basically my attitude is if the price is not rising quickly the trend is over for the purposes of that trade

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 99
Registered: 01-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 04:29 pm:

22 September 2005 was my post drawing attention to Bill McLaren's "crash cycle" that lay "dead ahead".

I'll draw up the charts of the US crashes in 1929, 1987, 1994 and now and show you what he was getting at. They are all identical. I'm too busy to do it right now, I'm trying to hang a dryer on the wall and it keeps falling off. I'm sure that a small thing like a once in a decade global stock market crash can wait while I fix my dryer.

Arthur Gibson

arthur_gibson

Member

Post Number: 100
Registered: 01-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 04:32 pm:

Oh and another thing I meant to ask.....Who the f**k is BUYING the shares today? - Are they nuts or what?

Arthur Gibson

archer

Member

Post Number: 1006
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 04:47 pm:

Dont complain Arthur
How would we be able to sell short if there was no-one buying on these days

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 1399
Registered: 03-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 05:05 pm:

I heard they are giving them away free. I was surprise you are not in the queue Mr Gibson. Perhaps you think they are not worth a dime.When we wait up the next day, it may all mean something.

They are people buying that do not rely on charts alone, so long as they think there is value in them. I have nothing against that. They may have their own plan and strategy.If there are only sellers without any buyers, they won't be a market, would there?

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

chriswillz

Member

Post Number: 65
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 05:46 pm:

Very interesting position we are in now. One would assume tomorrow will open slightly stronger . However if this is not the case, I would expect another 75-80point fall purely as people become overcautious. Will be watching the DOW intently.

Chris

stevo

Member

Post Number: 302
Registered: 01-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 06:09 pm:

"Who the f**k is BUYING the shares today? - Are they nuts or what?"

They probably think that the people that are selling are crazy. To have a market we need buyers and sellers. It would not surprise me if the market bounced considerably over the next week, but who really knows.

Stevo

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 1142
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 06:24 pm:

Good Afternoon

As previously reported I bought BHP this morning during a half hour fast up-trend and sold for a $ 500 profit

So Arthur I was one of your buyers :-)

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 1143
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 06:26 pm:

PS Admittedly they were only CFDs ... so I hope the CFD provider supported the market accordingly ;)

Until I sold of course ...

I would hate to think they experienced a loss on my account :-)

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

chriswillz

Member

Post Number: 66