Archive through October 07, 2005

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chriswillz

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Post Number: 69
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 01:15 am:

Gold up US $US$3.40

smallworld

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Post Number: 344
Registered: 01-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 01:32 am:

jimmydene
You might feel that Mark Douglas wrote crap and his work has caused you to do the "wrong" thing. I've read his book and what I took away from his book was about knowing your plan, define your risk and embrace the taking of this "predefined" risk. That means embracing the losses we have in these few days when we chose to stay in this game. I know its pretty hard for you to agree with me when you've just lost 60% of your capital. But I urge you to think about this when you are feeling better. XJO lost 4% in the last two days and you seem to have lost much more than that, and probably much more than you ever thought you would. Did you size your position too big for the capital you have? Both RIO and BHP probably lost under 10% in the last 2 days.
Best of luck and really learn your lesson there. Take responsibility, i.e., Being the cause of what you want in your life. Remember the game is not over unless you want it to be over.
SW

(Message edited by smallworld on October 07, 2005)

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jimdene

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Post Number: 21
Registered: 07-2005

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 02:24 am:

What can I say smallworld. Yes I do believe Mark Douglas wrote "crap", in your elegant style. I am one of those , unbelievers, who think that you should think for yourself, and not accept everything that you are told

jimdene

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Post Number: 22
Registered: 07-2005

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 02:36 am:

Another thing. Why do the Yanks always have to explain the Bleeding obvious

hibread

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Post Number: 2
Registered: 08-2005

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Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 11:17 pm:

So, who here believes buying lots of cheap put options might be a sound way to take advantage of this fall if it continues?

Big dolars to be made if the fall is imminent...

hilarius

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Post Number: 1147
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 07:02 am:

Good Morning

While sweeping the crumbs from the monastery floor following an overnight celebration of shorting the FTSE and the SPX I almost fell asleep

Yet with one eye on the monitor I observed a dead cat bounce of some considerable force in the last half hour of American trading (also reflected in the FTSE)

With a noted analyst talking about exhaustion and capitulation of the ASX yet predicting a few days of revival we now have the age old dilemma ... bear trap or trend resumption? Or neither?

Remembering also there is more to life than blurry eyed screen watching (if only I could find the bottle of red)

Please join me on my knees in silent morning prayer

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 1148
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 07:06 am:

Post Script

Perhaps the last half hour bounce was exuberant short covering by my American and British cousins Delirius and Supercilius?

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

rederob

Member

Post Number: 1512
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 08:01 am:

Dear Bro Hilarius
I am punting for a turnaround on the allords today.
Don't know what led to the DOW turning upwards in the last hour, but suspect the trend followers will "see something".
At this stage I can't believe that there is a reason to worry about the markets - it's just the market being itself with a technical correction that better reflects fundamental values.
The fact is that during "this correction we had to have", strong yield stocks hardly moved (try APA, CPA, AGL and CWT as just a few examples).
Onwards and upwards, I say...

kate

Member

Post Number: 139
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 08:43 am:

News from NY - perceived terrorist threat in the NY subway which has been known for two or three days and only released to the press today.
However, US budget deficit down.

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 1400
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 09:03 am:

Hilarius,

PE ratio in the Dow Jones is about 14 which we haven't seen for some time. This means value in today's language.I believe Dow is still trading in a range, a wider range, meanwhile in the lower channel and not up trending yet.The Fed is still concern about inflation thus the threat of continuous interest rate hike, however as the interest rate approaches what is seen as normal and this bias has been removed we will see the Dow taking off again.The Dow is merely ranging.
On the other hand the XAO is in a long term bull run. I believe small increases will result in small retracement and sharp increases will result in sharp corrections.With the way All Ords moved in the last week or so, I did expect it to come back sharply.Now that the correction we had to have has eventuated, I expect the market to move up again and hopefully in a gradual manner. Remember the XAO has a mind of its own now and not all the way with the Star and Stripes.
Rederob, you made a good point there, good yielding shares and value shares are least affected in a market down turn.

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

arthur_gibson

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Post Number: 101
Registered: 01-2005

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 09:03 am:

"From accelerator to brake"

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4488944

Arthur Gibson

kate

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Post Number: 141
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 09:48 am:

I finally found the information I've been looking for, US core inflation (inflation ex energy, ex food) is at the upper limit of its range.
Peter does that mean the DOW will stay in its trading pattern for the forseeable future?

Interesting article, Arthur, we'll be very vulnerable when this commodity boom is over. However we aren't locked into China's economy alone so I don't see it being a boom and bust scenario. Not that I'm anyway qualified to comment in comparison with most on this forum.

Kate

archer

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Post Number: 1010
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 09:48 am:

Jimdene
The breakout of the C+H pattern foretold this top over
2 months ago
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/6/540468.html

deanrosario

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Post Number: 886
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 10:25 am:

Dec05 SPI dropped as low as 4390 in overnight trading before the last 1/2 hour bounce in the Dow.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the XJO open poorly; head toward 4400 and then start to bounce?

As usual, let's wait for the market to show its hand.

I reckon this is exciting stuff ... (!!) or, maybe, I'm just a boring guy (could be both) ;-)

Good luck and, in the words of the Sgt. Jablonsky from "Hill Street Blues", "Let's be careful out there"!

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros